Observations from Countdown and practice

sagegrouse said:
Not to provoke an argument (Moi?), but I still expect to have nine or ten players with 300+ minutes for the year. That's what I call "meaningful minutes." Now I understand that the coaches are working primarily with a "rotation" of seven, which is perfectly understandable -- but that's now. Duke basketball is extremely intense, even physical, and there is wear and tear on the players, so I expect some down time or restricted minutes to occur, creating multiple opportunities for others. Also, it's a long season, and there will be migration of roles across multiple players.

Last year there were only seven players with 300+ mins.; in 2023 there were nine, and in 2022 there were eight. This year, three of the transfers will play a lot, plus the five likely starters, plus Patrick, plus either Evans or Harris to make as many as ten.

It would be great if there were no injuries, but when has that ever happened at Duke?
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Yes. Yet per usual I don’t think we’ll see the same rotation in February that we’ll see in November.
 
SkyBrickey said:
DB, you and I have been battling the Kon doubters for months. Back in June and through the summer they were arguing he was a deep bench guy. Then they begrudgingly put him in the rotation.

Now they are acknowledging he will start but claim he'll be a bad defender.

They are coming around... 🏝️😎
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Yep. I have been very high on him for a long time. Last years roster was so flawed so I don't think Kon hits 30 min/gm this year. I pretty much have him in the 25 range. This season can't start soon enough.
 
SkyBrickey said:
I'm not going to check all the teams, but for the last 4 games of the season/tourney, UConn's 8th man averaged 11.5mpg.
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That's a fair point, but I should note that UConn won those games by 30, 25, 14, and 15 points. In the two closer ones (the semis and natl championship), Jaylin Stewart played 6 minutes and 3 minutes, respectively. In the semis and finals of the Big East tourney, he logged 11 and 9.

For what it's worth, also in the two final four games, their 7th man only logged 10 minutes and 5 minutes.
 
roywhite said:
Yeah, Jared was more than just a shooter for Duke last year -- he had 38 steals (Proctor had 22) and averaged 5.0 rebounds.

The 76ers seem pleased to have him so far.
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McCain may not have been an elite defender - but he wasn’t exactly a liability either. I’d say he was definitely better than average. And he was fantastic on the boards as a guard.
 
dlmzzz said:
That's a fair point, but I should note that UConn won those games by 30, 25, 14, and 15 points. In the two closer ones (the semis and natl championship), Jaylin Stewart played 6 minutes and 3 minutes, respectively. In the semis and finals of the Big East tourney, he logged 11 and 9.

For what it's worth, also in the two final four games, their 7th man only logged 10 minutes and 5 minutes.
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You're right. I realize I was mixing in some opponent box scores with UConn box scores. All three of the teams I named do generally shorten their rotations late in the tourney.

I think a lot of us are a bit shocked at the idea that the Big10 6th MOTY won't be in our late season rotation, but it's possible. We will have one helluva team if true.
 
SkyBrickey said:
Latest pod was great. But it's Spencer Hubbard, not Stanley Hubbard!
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When Donald said "I'm going to throw cold water . . . " I thought he was going to finally correct Jason on saying the wrong name for 5 minutes, but to my disappointment, both hosts got it wrong 😂
 
kAzE said:
When Donald said "I'm going to throw cold water . . . " I thought he was going to finally correct Jason on saying the wrong name for 5 minutes, but to my disappointment, both hosts got it wrong 😂
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Old man brain… I can’t believe I did that. I generally only use last names in my notes and that was the case here. I somehow stuck Borden’s first name on Hubbard. Just awful!!
 
The big rotation battles were always going to be high ceiling freshmen v. high floor transfers. IMO, Jon regrets putting so much faith in Power and Stewart last offseason. He decided not to bring in transfers, and neither of those freshmen were ready to fill rotation roles. This year, we have 3 veteran transfers who can serve as insurance. The best case scenario with insurance is that you end up not needing it. If Kon really is that much better than expected, then it would make sense that he would eat up some minutes that might have gone to a transfer.

I do want to point out something I haven't seen discussed much. I understand he played the 4 with some regularity at Purdue. I don't think Kon/Evans/James can do that. Now, I expect Flagg to get as many minutes as he can handle, and Brown/Maluach to share time at the 5. But if Ngbonga is hurt and we have any more injuries/foul trouble, we suddenly have a depth issue in the frontcourt. I could see games where we lean on a smaller lineup with Gillis at the 4. It may be that he ends up playing more of a situational role than a constant role.
 
IrishDevil said:
I still don't think we know much about how the team will play against an opponent. That said, from what we saw at CTC and what we are hearing in addition, it seems like we are in the familiar position where our locks to start will be heavily relied on, and the remainder of the roster will evolve over the season and be used situationally.

We are hearing our defense is ahead of our offense; maybe the starters can cover for Kon on defense sufficiently that his potential as a shot-maker/creator to get our offense going from opening tip can justify starting. Maybe Flagg is still learning how to be assertive on offense at this level, or Jon is still learning how to use him, and we need some additional shot-creation for the time being; maybe Flagg's play shifts later on such that parking Gillis in the corner, which seemed to be his offensive role at CTC, is productive enough that his defense pushes him past Kon into more playing time. Maybe Jon wants a Mighty Ducks 2-style Bash Brother change of pace substitution at the 12 min mark and brings both Sion and Gillis on to stymie opposition. Maybe we end up having to play smaller than expected and Gillis sees more time as a smallball 4 with Flagg or Brown.

As useful as observations from early season practices can be, and I am grateful to Jason and others for sharing them, we won't really know what this team will look like until they play a few games. As Donald is fond of reminding the podcast listeners , in the words of that sage of our times, Mike Tyson: everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. This team offers numerous potential adjustments, though, so I am excited to see how we deploy tactically throughout a game.

Re Roach's performance on the 22-23 final four team, Tennessee would like a word (ugh). And if we are talking instead of 21-22, I agree with the above that Roach wasn't a difference down the stretch as a point guard/distributor, i.e. driving the Duke car, but as a scoring guard/shotmaker who scored in clutch spots in the tournament. Postseason Roach was a real thing, but IIRC (first time for everything!), that team often distributed by committee with Wendell, Paolo, and Jeremy all taking a hand in moving the team through its offense. We may see something similar this year, but I think that too much of that could be seen as an unwelcome development, particularly as it relates to Tyrese's play.
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This is a very good post that I agree with.

GoDuke!
 
Dr. Maturin said:
The big rotation battles were always going to be high ceiling freshmen v. high floor transfers. IMO, Jon regrets putting so much faith in Power and Stewart last offseason. He decided not to bring in transfers, and neither of those freshmen were ready to fill rotation roles. This year, we have 3 veteran transfers who can serve as insurance. The best case scenario with insurance is that you end up not needing it. If Kon really is that much better than expected, then it would make sense that he would eat up some minutes that might have gone to a transfer.

I do want to point out something I haven't seen discussed much. I understand he played the 4 with some regularity at Purdue. I don't think Kon/Evans/James can do that. Now, I expect Flagg to get as many minutes as he can handle, and Brown/Maluach to share time at the 5. But if Ngbonga is hurt and we have any more injuries/foul trouble, we suddenly have a depth issue in the frontcourt. I could see games where we lean on a smaller lineup with Gillis at the 4. It may be that he ends up playing more of a situational role than a constant role.
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The 5-point play guys mentioned that the transfers are insurance as well. I would be surprised if Mason, Maliq, and Sion, especially Mason and Sion, came to Duke to be insurance.

I agree that Duke has a frontcourt depth issue.
 
Sion is, for all practical purposes, the only other guard on the team other than Proctor and Foster. Even without injuries, he is more or less guaranteed 12-15 minutes per game just to give the other two breathers. That's more than just insurance.
 
I don't know what the definition of insurance is, but Sion and Maliq will very likely play 15-25mpg. To me that's a lot more than insurance. Mason seems to be the one on that 8th man bubble.

Really enjoyed Jason's reports from practice on Man's quick leaping and Kon's one on one play against maybe our two best defenders. Impressive stuff.

Seems like Cooper is our third string center until Pat makes it back. Hopefully Cooper won't be needed unless Jon wants to experiment with some Cooper-at-the-5 small ball.
 
I'm a little surprised to see Mason this far down the depth chart. Is that just a reflection on the fit with this team? How, otherwise, can the 6th Man of the Year, who played 24 minutes in a national championship game, go to 8th on the depth chart with token minutes a year later?
 
SlapTheFloor said:
I'm a little surprised to see Mason this far down the depth chart. Is that just a reflection on the fit with this team? How, otherwise, can the 6th Man of the Year, who played 24 minutes in a national championship game, go to 8th on the depth chart with token minutes a year later?
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I hear you but if you take Zach Edey off that Purdue team I doubt it makes the NCAAs. This Duke team is far more talented, so the issue is how much Jon values experience. I think Mason will play good minutes some games and few in others.
 
SlapTheFloor said:
I'm a little surprised to see Mason this far down the depth chart. Is that just a reflection on the fit with this team? How, otherwise, can the 6th Man of the Year, who played 24 minutes in a national championship game, go to 8th on the depth chart with token minutes a year later?
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I don't think he does. To me, it seems like many posters are enthralled with the shiny new toy and a lot of Mason's game does not show up in a box score.
 
SlapTheFloor said:
I'm a little surprised to see Mason this far down the depth chart. Is that just a reflection on the fit with this team? How, otherwise, can the 6th Man of the Year, who played 24 minutes in a national championship game, go to 8th on the depth chart with token minutes a year later?
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It's not saying that Sion and Maliq are better players than Mason. But Mason cannot backup the 1/2 like Sion. And Mason can't back up the 5 like Maliq.

And it looks like we have two stars at the 3/4 in Cooper and Kon who may get all the minutes they can handle at Mason's natural positions.

So if all that's the case, who gets those backup minutes at the 3/4? In one scenario, we play a 7-man rotation and Sion flexes up and Maliq flexes down to play those 10-20mpg at the 3/4.

In another scenario, that I still like, we play an 8-man rotation and Mason plays those backup minutes at the 3/4.
 
JasonEvans said:
Lastly, I repeatedly heard over the weekend -- from really, really, really good sources -- that Scheyer feels like 7 guys have separated themselves from the rest of the team in terms of performance.
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Thanks for sharing your intel.

Over the last 3 seasons, Mason ranked 35th, 39th, and 33rd in the Big Ten according to Torvik's PRPG! rating. Over that period, he ranked 8th, 17th, and 23rd in the Big Ten in terms of Box Plus/Minus.

If Duke has 7 guys who are clearly better than this, either a) Duke is gonna be massively talented this season, or b) Mason's advanced stats over the past 3 years were significantly inflated by playing with Zach Edey.

I prefer explanation 'a', but the recent examples of Pete Nance and Jacob Grandison give me pause. Nance was 19th in the Big Ten in PRPG! and 8th in BPM before transferring to UNC. Grandison was 26th in PRPG! and 15th in BPM in his final season at Illinois.
 
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