One thing I noticed about our transfers - all were high efficiency, low volume players. Gillis, Brown and James all used 12-15% of possessions, a usage rate that Pomeroy labels “limited roles.” So complementary players who won’t turn the ball over and who are likely to score when they shoot, which isn’t often. Not sure what to make of this factoid - just thought it was interesting and different than a lot of transfers into power programs.
Observations from Countdown and practice
- Thread starter JasonEvans
- Start date
gillmic
Member
I think all three of these guys are good and would start for 90%+ of D1 teams.
I’m surprised that Sion is labeled as being in a “limited role”. From the Tulane basketball website, he has averaged over 34 MPG in his career, including about 37 MPG during the past two years (and scoring over 14 PPG on over 50% shooting last year). While I understand that Tulane may not compare to Duke in terms of talent and competition, that level of usage and scoring doesn’t strike me as a “limited role.”
Maliq being a 29 MPG guy who earned All-ACC defensive player of the year votes also surprises me as “limited role.”
While Mason has been closer to 20 MPG, being the conference sixth man of the year on the national runner up also doesn’t seem like “limited role” to me.
When I think “limited role,” I think TJ Power or Sean Stewart or Jaylen Blakes.
If I were choosing a starting five, based only on what I’ve read on these boards for the past few months, it’s difficult for me to leave out Sion or Maliq (but especially Sion).
SkyBrickey
Member
I think the poster was making the point that they were "limited usage" players on offense.
Usage in basketball is a calculation based on how often a team's possession ends with that player attempting a field goal, shooting free throws or making a turnover.
It's a calculation to indicate how often a player is the focal point of the offense.
Pomeroy usage rate is based on % possessions used when playing, not on minutes played. Some players play a lot of minutes but don’t shoot much so they don’t burn possessions. And I was a bit mistaken about Sion - he used 17.1% of the team’s possessions when on the floor, which Pomeroy classifies as a “role player.” (As a comparison point the average usage for players is, by definition, 20%.)
Edit: I see SkyBrickey beat me to it.
MChambers
Member
Yes, all three of them are not close to being primary scorers. But I think that's a good thing on this roster.
The exact usage rates and offensive efficiency ratings for these transfers were:
Sion 17.1% 124.0
Brown 14.1% 131.2 (16th best in DI)
Gillis 13.4% 134.8 (6th best in DI!)
Note that in general higher usage usually goes with a drop in offensive efficiency. But both Brown and Gillis were ridiculously efficient, even after allowing for their lower usage rates.
Sion 17.1% 124.0
Brown 14.1% 131.2 (16th best in DI)
Gillis 13.4% 134.8 (6th best in DI!)
Note that in general higher usage usually goes with a drop in offensive efficiency. But both Brown and Gillis were ridiculously efficient, even after allowing for their lower usage rates.
Phredd3
Member
But that's just the thing: We've got several players who will be high usage, and someone else on the floor has to give up usage to compensate. On a team basis, usage is a zero-sum stat (or, more literally, a 100% sum stat). You want those low usage, complementary players to make the absolute most of their limited opportunities. These three guys have done exactly that, and that's partly why I don't think Mason Gillis is going to end up as a 5mpg player. He is just too efficient in that complement role to have him sit that much.
But we'll see. A lot of basketball left to play, still, to put it mildly.
SkyBrickey
Member
All 3 of these guys are excellent defenders and efficient scorers. Jon definitely had a type he was seeking in the portal. If we win a Natty, all 3 of these guys will be a big reason why.
SkyBrickey
Member
Again, Gillis' main challenge is he will be displacing either Cooper or Kon when he plays. That's the bar he has to clear to get rotation minutes.
I've been assuming Kon was a 25mpg starter leaving 15mpg for Gillis or another player. But if Kon is a 35mpg player during competitive games like we all expect Cooper to be, that just doesn't leave many minutes for Mason.
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
If Scheyer thinks Gillis is a 15+ minute per game player then why did he play only 1 minute in white in the 90 minute practice? He was never on the same team with Man-man, Cooper, or Kon when they were running 5x5 scrimmages and situational drills.
NEVER!
NEVER!
DukieInBrasil
Member
I'm prognosticating that none of our Fr. have offensive eficiency numbers that high this season.
SkyBrickey
Member
Seriously? First of all, it was just one practice!
Second of all, is it possible that with Mason as a savvy 5th year vet, Jon feels like it's a lot more important that the two frosh starters, Cooper and Kon, get all the first-team reps right now?
Thirdly, I doubt it, but Mason could have been in his doghouse for being late to practice or who knows what...
Lastly, it's possible he could be planning on a 7-man rotation today and decide to expand it next practice, next week or next month.
Jon may very well go with a 7-man rotation, but I wouldn't say it's set in stone based on one practice.
SkyBrickey
Member
With Brown and Gillis, not a chance. But that doesn't mean they won't be better offensive players.
Agree. I wasn’t being critical of these players, just pointing out their characteristics.
H a
I think Kon could play SG. in fact this will probably be the position he would play if he makes it to the NBA. I guess maybe in college ball you might see him as more of a SF, a "stretch 3" if you will.
I have lurked here for years but created an account this summer to post this as I thought some might be interested:
Since some of this conversation relates to Gillis's playing time, I am re-sharing here as Painter talks about Gillis (13+ minutes). He said that Gillis was going to either play in the G-League or overseas, so he (Painter) thought Gillis entering the portal was a "great financial decision." As a lifelong Purdue fan, I am sorry that he is not at Purdue and thrilled that he is at Duke. Also, I am sure that he wants to play a lot (and suspect that he will play some, if not as much as he did at Purdue), but Painter suggested that his reasons for coming to Duke involved more than just playing time.
Purdue's Matt Painter on Kanon Catchings' exit: 'I can't anoint a role to somebody out of thin air.'
"It's just one of those deals where he was concerned about his role," Matt Painter said of Kanon Catchings' departure for BYU.
www.indystar.com
Since some of this conversation relates to Gillis's playing time, I am re-sharing here as Painter talks about Gillis (13+ minutes). He said that Gillis was going to either play in the G-League or overseas, so he (Painter) thought Gillis entering the portal was a "great financial decision." As a lifelong Purdue fan, I am sorry that he is not at Purdue and thrilled that he is at Duke. Also, I am sure that he wants to play a lot (and suspect that he will play some, if not as much as he did at Purdue), but Painter suggested that his reasons for coming to Duke involved more than just playing time.
simplyluvin
Member
Surprised about the Gillis forecast but if it holds true, then that is likely a good thing for our team this year. But interesting that we are projecting him as our 8th man in the rotation...he was the B10 6th man of the year and had decent minutes last year in high leverage games. For example, in conference games and in March, he averaged about 23 minutes. He's still going to be useful as a low volume efficient scorer, rebounder, and a defender. A pretty good backup SF at the end of the day.
Phredd3
Member
Well, here's an alternate theory: As a fifth-year senior, Gillis doesn't need the training that the freshmen need, and in fact, his role in practice is to help train them. That doesn't mean he'll have the exact same role in actual games.
Look, I'm not saying that you're definitively wrong, and I've never argued that Mason will be a "15+ minute per game player". What I'm mostly saying is that you are the one being awfully definitive when we have seen two intrasquad sessions and still have nearly two weeks before we see these guys play an exhibition game against even a lousy team, nearly three weeks until we see them in an exhibition against a team that's actually good, nearly a month until we see them in a game that matters, and more than a month until we see them in a game that matters against a team that's actually good.
It's a little early to be that adamant, don't you think?
That's what I basically said earlier. But I was told that Jon had seen the players practice and scrimmage before official basketball practices were allowed. I may be wrong, but I think Jason is going on what he was told by his source. To me this is sort of like posting without a link. I wish Jason would give us an idea of who the secret insider is. Without naming them of course.
GoDuke!
SlapTheFloor
Member
Coaches are allowed to work with their teams in a limited manner during the offseason right? So this is our first time seeing the team together but it's not the staff's.