Observations from Countdown and practice

That is certainly possible.



There is nothing remotely unreal about that statement. Much like Kon may have had a "not the best of Kon CTC," the scrimmages Givony saw may have been the best of Kon coupled with not the best from Cooper. It happens all the time. Two years ago, people were talking about how far away Flip was after a scrimmage.



He is elite offensively but he did not show average to slightly below average defense at CTC. Far from it. His offense should get him significant playing time but not to the level of Cooper, Tyrese, and Caleb. If his defense is much better than he showed at CTC, then you are probably correct in your playing time assumptions.
There's my contrarian!

With a group of 10 guys who are this good, for any one of them to be clearly the best player in three straight scrimmages would be absolutely unreal. Especially when it's not the projected #1 NBA pick! Who was the best player in CTC 1? Not sure. In CTC 2? Caleb Foster.

Givony had to have been exaggerating a bit. But it still means that we will probably see Kon as an unstoppable scorer in a lot of games this season.
 
I think this gets to the heart of the issue. I can understand Jon seeing that 7 guys have separated themselves in practice. But I still believe he should experiment with different combinations and give all of the healthy 10 potential rotation players some decent PT during non-conference to see how things look against external competition. Which can be very different than how they look in practice. Also important, for a variety of reasons, for the number 8-10 guys to get some PT every game and feel like they have an opportunity to play their way up in the rotation (and the 1-7 to play their way down) over the course of the season.

In the latter stages of his career, K seemed almost obsessive about figuring out his starters and rotation as early as possible and maxing out their opportunities together. Many of us on DBR saw this as more of a defect than a feature though, as it often seemed to result in teams that peaked in December and were too predictable and/or vulnerable to injuries in March. IMHO, the pressures introduced by the portal seem like another quite valid reason for Jon to NOT take that approach.
This is a great post. It will be interesting to see how Jon operates. I do believe Jason that he's got his top 7-8 today. But is it set in stone?
 
There's my contrarian!

With a group of 10 guys who are this good, for any one of them to be clearly the best player in three straight scrimmages would be absolutely unreal. Especially when it's not the projected #1 NBA pick! Who was the best player in CTC 1? Not sure. In CTC 2? Caleb Foster.

Givony had to have been exaggerating a bit. But it still means that we will probably see Kon as an unstoppable scorer in a lot of games this season.
One thing for sure we saw Kon's rating go up and Evan's go down since the early recruiting. I'm excited to see how the new players to our squad perform against tough opponents. Matter of fact I'm looking forward to seeing improvement from Tyrese and Caleb. We need to remember both were injured last season.

GoDuke!
 
Less of a thought and more of a question - What kind of leap are we assuming from Proctor and Foster?
This is the elephant in the room for me.

I feel like people are already annointing these guys as an All-ACC backcourt.

Caleb had some highs and lows last year. Tyrese was supposed to play himself into the 2024 draft lottery.

Anyone remember Duhon's junior year?

I'm not really assuming anything, and I am glad we have some options waiting in the wings.

I would take back Roach for either of our guards.
 
This is the elephant in the room for me.

I feel like people are already annointing these guys as an All-ACC backcourt.

Caleb had some highs and lows last year. Tyrese was supposed to play himself into the 2024 draft lottery.

Anyone remember Duhon's junior year?

I'm not really assuming anything, and I am glad we have some options waiting in the wings.

I would take back Roach for either of our guards.
I'm anxious to see how Jeremy does as the point-guard for a very good Baylor team. Wishing him the best unless it's against the Blue Devils.

GoDuke!
 
There's my contrarian!

With a group of 10 guys who are this good, for any one of them to be clearly the best player in three straight scrimmages would be absolutely unreal. Especially when it's not the projected #1 NBA pick! Who was the best player in CTC 1? Not sure. In CTC 2? Caleb Foster.

Givony had to have been exaggerating a bit. But it still means that we will probably see Kon as an unstoppable scorer in a lot of games this season.
For CTC 1, Kon had the best showing. I agree with you that Caleb was great in CTC 2.

Unstoppable is a bit much but I don't doubt Kon's offense even a bit.
 
Then Kara can ask Jon what it’s like to win the ACC.

Kidding, but also making the point that there’s no singular “right” way to manage a rotation. Implying that Jon should take a page out of Kara’s book seems silly when, if anything, his approach has been more successful to-date. And Scheyer’s teams play pretty darn good defense as well.
The return part of the conversation can definitely be about how to land big-time recruits. Kara has been doing more with less. She needs to learn the secret of how to do more with more. Emilee Skinner hopefully helps with that. But that's more a topic for the women's thread.
 
One thing for sure we saw Kon's rating go up and Evan's go down since the early recruiting. I'm excited to see how the new players to our squad perform against tough opponents. Matter of fact I'm looking forward to seeing improvement from Tyrese and Caleb. We need to remember both were injured last season.

GoDuke!
We didn't see that in RSCI. Isaiah was 17 in the summer and 16 in the final. Kon was 15 and 14. They both had movement up and down in the individual ratings.
 
This is the elephant in the room for me.

I feel like people are already annointing these guys as an All-ACC backcourt.

Caleb had some highs and lows last year. Tyrese was supposed to play himself into the 2024 draft lottery.

Anyone remember Duhon's junior year?

I'm not really assuming anything, and I am glad we have some options waiting in the wings.

I would take back Roach for either of our guards.
I made this point earlier. We didn't get a perspective on just how big this team is at CTC because both squads were huge.

I think a big reason why our backcourt will be so good is the size. 6-6, 6-5, 6-6. That size and athleticism will overwhelm a lot of teams. Love Jeremy but I think Jon got exactly the backcourt he wanted.

Against UNC, we should have a 2-7 inch size advantage at 4 out of 5 positions.
 
This is the elephant in the room for me.

I feel like people are already annointing these guys as an All-ACC backcourt.

Caleb had some highs and lows last year. Tyrese was supposed to play himself into the 2024 draft lottery.

Anyone remember Duhon's junior year?

I'm not really assuming anything, and I am glad we have some options waiting in the wings.

I would take back Roach for either of our guards.
I’ll buy the skepticism of Foster/Proctor improvement but I’m more skeptical of Roach playing PG. If you want more reliable but still inconsistent scoring, sure Roach has a track record there. Hopefully offense isn’t a huge issue with this team…
 
I think a big reason why our backcourt will be so good is the size. 6-6, 6-5, 6-6. That size and athleticism will overwhelm a lot of teams. Love Jeremy but I think Jon got exactly the backcourt he wanted.

Against UNC, we should have a 2-7 inch size advantage at 4 out of 5 positions.
There can be downsides to size, though. I'm very interested to see how we do against small, quick teams. Duke's defense has traditionally had issues when it cannot contain dribble penetration, and we may have some weaknesses in that area, especially a guy like Kon. But it is hard to see those until you play live games against opposition you don't know.
 
There can be downsides to size, though. I'm very interested to see how we do against small, quick teams. Duke's defense has traditionally had issues when it cannot contain dribble penetration, and we may have some weaknesses in that area, especially a guy like Kon. But it is hard to see those until you play live games against opposition you don't know.
I think Tyrese and Sion will be good defenders. Caleb has the tools to be a good defender but will need to show improvement this season.

GoDuke!
 
Just looked up some 8th man mpg from some other top teams last year...

UConn - 11.5
Purdue - 10.0
Alabama - 12.3

I would guess all the top 8 guys on these teams mpg get deflated a bit by the 9-12 guys playing mop up minutes in non-competitive games.

So it could be that these guys are playing more like 12-15mpg in competitive games.
I see those numbers and come to the opposite conclusion. In non-competitive games, I think your 8th man is getting more minutes than usual. I would expect them to log fewer minutes than their average in competitive games.

To Jason's point, if that is their average, I would guess they played closer to 5 minutes per game in the competitive ones.
 
Getting driven on by the presumptive number 1 pick of the upcoming NBA draft is not a huge deal. That's going to happen to a ton of players.

Getting driven on by Caleb is a huge deal. Caleb was not particularly good at getting into the paint last season and did not have a clean offseason to work on it. This is my concern about Kon playing major minutes; the Blue-White game did nothing to alleviate those concerns. I saw the excellent offense and the extremely high BB IQ, but the defense on the perimeter was not good.

Kon is, at worst, a top 3 offensive player on Duke, but probably not in top 8 defensively. I don't think that is a player that should be playing 30 minutes a night.
McCain played 31 min/gm and couldn't guard the chair I am currently sitting in. Kon has him by 4 inches and 20lbs. Kon will be fine.
 
I’ll buy the skepticism of Foster/Proctor improvement but I’m more skeptical of Roach playing PG. If you want more reliable but still inconsistent scoring, sure Roach has a track record there. Hopefully offense isn’t a huge issue with this team…
I agree, I really liked Roach a lot and wish him well, but not a great distributor.
 
I want to chime in here since I'm with you, Edouble, about Mason, being one of his biggest proponents over the summer... but I also think Jason needs some defending here.

We're now under two weeks from our first exhibition and about a month from real game action. So here's the question: if Jon was planning for Mason to be playing big minutes alongside our key rotation players, why wouldn't he be practicing like it? I'm with Jason that I see no benefit to hiding something as innocuous as our 7th/8th man's role during an open practice.

If, for instance, the plan was for Mason to get 10 mpg at the 4 alongside a lineup that looks something like 2 out of our 3 guards (including Sion), Cooper/Kon, and Maliq/Khaman, wouldn't that be a lineup that would merit getting significant run during practice? I think most of us assumed that this would be a lineup we saw a lot this year, but the fact that it wasn't is extremely noteworthy/newsworthy... and it's the exact type of insight we're lucky to get from a guy like Jason for free ;)

It's also worth remembering that rotations change over the course of the year. Just because this is what things look like now doesn't mean it won't be different in January. In fact, I think it's very possible that this is Jon's initial plan based purely off of talent and practice performance, but once this team gets punched in the mouth (proverbially speaking, of course) in game action he'll decide he needs the defense/toughness Mason brings.

Here's the final thing: Mason being a guy who has already shown his versatility and flexibility for four years at Purdue makes his situation a bit different. If someone with Mason's profile was a freshman or sophomore, I'd be more worried about his ability to shift into a bigger role when needed based on what Jason is reporting. But as a super senior who has been a swiss-army knife on a top-tier Purdue team, I think Mason is much better suited for a role that fluctuates based on the matchup, how freshmen like Kon stand up to ACC play, etc.

I’m still going with the hunch that we see Mason a lot more when the meat of the ACC season arrives, and Kon less. His experience and versatile ability on defense are going to be valuable. Also, injuries…
 
This wasn't the first practice. There haven't only been two weeks of practice. Jon has been watching these guys play/practice together for months. They team first arrived on campus four months ago. They've almost certainly got 200+ hours of practice with Jon watching at this point.

I think Sky's point about Kon being waaaay better than anyone (including the coaching staff) expected and how that has impacted Gillis' role on this team is a great one. If Kon was looking like a 20mpg freshman, I suspect this would be a very different conversation. I have also heard that Sion has been better than expected (the coaching staff has been pleasantly surprised by his outside shot) as well and that has changed some of the wing calculus too (I think we will see at least some of Sion playing alongside Foster and Proctor).

It is worth noting that Mason Gillis is not a guy who would complain or be upset with a lesser role if it means the team is more successful. If he only gets maybe one brief first half run in major competitive games, he will gladly take that in exchange for being on a championship contender.

Lastly, I repeatedly heard over the weekend -- from really, really, really good sources -- that Scheyer feels like 7 guys have separated themselves from the rest of the team in terms of performance. That is one of the reasons I was keenly watching who played in white and who did not when I was at the open practice.

I came into the weekend hoping to hear about a 10-man rotation. I have spoken about my desire for that all off-season. But when I started to hear Scheyer has found 7 guys and then when I saw what happened at practice... well, I just wanted to share it so the rest of you could come around to what I am being told will be our reality this year.

And I feel great about the fact that if if if there are injuries that impact this team -- lord, I hope not! -- we will have guys like Mason (and Evans/Harris/Ngongba) who can step up and capably fill in if we need it.
But, but, but... I was being told (not by you) in earlier discussions that this was the year we would have 9 guys averaging more than 12 minutes per game (even though that happened only ONCE during K's tenure and it also coincided with a significant injury of the team's best player).

Anyways, I look forward to that fantasy for next season.
 
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