I saw an article on this in the local (online) newspaper and it literally swung by like 20 percentage points in a couple of days. I think it must not be a very "efficient" robust market to have such strong movement so quickly myself. I don't put much weight into it. It had Harris as like 330+ EVs a week ago, which makes no sense to me either.
2024 U.S. Presidential election
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I saw an article on this in the local (online) newspaper and it literally swung by like 20 percentage points in a couple of days. I think it must not be a very "efficient" robust market to have such strong movement so quickly myself. I don't put much weight into it. It had Harris as like 330+ EVs a week ago, which makes no sense to me either.
SkyBrickey
Member
Looked it up and here's the man himself, Thomas Miller, confirming Trump now has the lead in his model. Here's what he said when asked what might have shifted:
"It may be because of fears of widespread warfare in the Middle East, and that American troops will join the conflict,” he notes. “The Biden regime is pursuing a traditional foreign policy of supporting allies militarily, leading to the view that could happen. Trump is more of an isolationist, and that appeals to a lot of people who think of Afghanistan and Iraq and say, ‘Why are we trying to do this? Why get involved in foreign wars?’ A lot of people across the spectrum are not interested in our going to war.”
Trump’s odds have surged over the past week and he now holds a 2-vote electoral college lead, says prominent data scientist
Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, maintains that his model, guided by political betting data, is a much better forecaster than polls.
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
Member
Honestly, i would think there will be thousands of disenfranchised rural WNC voters due to circumstance.
PackMan97
Member
I don't see how it can be avoided. There will be some areas that may not resume for quite some time. Power, water, schools, postal service, pretty much anything. It's going to take months at least.
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
Member
If state GOP were think clearly, they would put more effort into finding ways for our rural community members to get their votes in, rather than fighting against the voting fraud boogeyman.
CameronBornAndBred
Well-known member
WNC (aside from Asheville) is a very red section.* (As is ENC). There won't be a huge shift. I doubt very much that those liberal voters in Asheville will suddenly switch their votes.
*You're on the ground there, so maybe you see it differently.
If its going to pendulum swing that quickly in 2 weeks, then there is way more than enough time for it to swing back, and it most likely will in the next 4 weeksLooked it up and here's the man himself, Thomas Miller, confirming Trump now has the lead in his model. Here's what he said when asked what might have shifted:
"It may be because of fears of widespread warfare in the Middle East, and that American troops will join the conflict,” he notes. “The Biden regime is pursuing a traditional foreign policy of supporting allies militarily, leading to the view that could happen. Trump is more of an isolationist, and that appeals to a lot of people who think of Afghanistan and Iraq and say, ‘Why are we trying to do this? Why get involved in foreign wars?’ A lot of people across the spectrum are not interested in our going to war.”
Trump’s odds have surged over the past week and he now holds a 2-vote electoral college lead, says prominent data scientist
Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, maintains that his model, guided by political betting data, is a much better forecaster than polls.fortune.com
SkyBrickey
Member
This is a game of inches right now.
By raging that Biden-Harris are diverting our FEMA funds to illegal immigrants, can Trump move an ignorant 1% of the electorate from undecided to Trump in NC and GA?
By raging that that there would be peace in the Middle East under him and Harris is marching us toward WW3, can Trump move an ignorant 1% of the electorate from undecided to Trump across the seven swing states?
These are the two issues he is going all in on to win.
SkyBrickey
Member
But will it? If you believe like I do that he is fear-mongering the hurricanes/FEMA and Israel-Iran to push ahead, what's happening on her side to counteract that surge?
Israel is about to attack, so that issue will get worse for her before it gets better.
Which may comeback to bite them on the national election. Tens of thousands of mainly GOP voters not casting a vote in NC maybe be a deciding factor for determining NC Electoral College votes. I can't see it really affecting local or statewide elections (like for Governor).
There have also been some sobering swing state polls for Harris in the past few days and media accounts (with attribution to her campaign staff and surrogates) of her having trouble gaining traction in PA, MI and WI.Looked it up and here's the man himself, Thomas Miller, confirming Trump now has the lead in his model. Here's what he said when asked what might have shifted:
"It may be because of fears of widespread warfare in the Middle East, and that American troops will join the conflict,” he notes. “The Biden regime is pursuing a traditional foreign policy of supporting allies militarily, leading to the view that could happen. Trump is more of an isolationist, and that appeals to a lot of people who think of Afghanistan and Iraq and say, ‘Why are we trying to do this? Why get involved in foreign wars?’ A lot of people across the spectrum are not interested in our going to war.”
Trump’s odds have surged over the past week and he now holds a 2-vote electoral college lead, says prominent data scientist
Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, maintains that his model, guided by political betting data, is a much better forecaster than polls.
I don't think the prediction markets are particularly efficient or insightful. They are relying on the same information we all are, but perhaps processing in a more systematic way. And I suspect the quoted dollar amounts ($1.6BN on Polymarket for POTUS) reflect a great deal of hedging (i.e. making bets on both sides) such that the net dollar amounts at risk are much lower.
Bostondevil
Well-known member
With the predictions of a Trump win, I am now contemplating the 2025 hurricane season with the possibility of no National Weather Service or FEMA.
Hell, that is probably his favorite trait to some of his supporters. “Man, he told them mf’ers off!”
PackMan97
Member
LOL! Trump was one of the least effective Presidents in his first term and government programs are like zombies, impossible to kill. Of the things I worry about in a second term, him being able to kill FEMA and the National Weather Service are numbers 143 and 178 respectively.
Duke79UNLV77
Member
At least he's assured people they won't have to fret about voting anymore, so there's that.
Well I've picked out a nice spot in the English countryside for when I'm deported for being the wrong kind of naturalized citizen. Fun times ahead for all. Everyone's welcome.
DUKIECB
Member
I don't post in this thread a lot but read it every day. Just like all of you when I go on social media the algorithm feeds me content based on my beliefs and I am largely ignorant of what is being espoused by the opposite side other than what I see on the news and what left leaning outlets are telling me. However, one platform I rarely get on is X but during major weather events I go there because I can find a lot of good information from meteorologists posting their opinions along with a lot a very extensive information that you wouldn't get from the local news or CNN / MSNBC etc.
Let me tell you, if you believe there are just a few fringe extreme views out there and only a few people pushing them and largely the voting republic has at least some grip on reality then you should take a dive down some rabbit holes in there. I equate it to going on the UNC boards after they lose to Duke. It has been truly sobering the last few days learning just how widespread the extremism is. First you see an absurd conspiracy theory post which is crazy in itself but then go look at the comments and just how many are drinking the Kool-Aid. It is truly discouraging to know that that many people are that far detached from reality.
I do think the whole misinformation campaign is having an affect on the race. They have taken back the spotlight off of Harris and the momentum she had and once again are controlling the narrative. The government is bad and out to get you narrative is in full effect. Trump will save us from the tyranny and no amount of factual data or reasoning will do one bit of good in trying to change their minds. It's truly a sad state of affairs.
Let me tell you, if you believe there are just a few fringe extreme views out there and only a few people pushing them and largely the voting republic has at least some grip on reality then you should take a dive down some rabbit holes in there. I equate it to going on the UNC boards after they lose to Duke. It has been truly sobering the last few days learning just how widespread the extremism is. First you see an absurd conspiracy theory post which is crazy in itself but then go look at the comments and just how many are drinking the Kool-Aid. It is truly discouraging to know that that many people are that far detached from reality.
I do think the whole misinformation campaign is having an affect on the race. They have taken back the spotlight off of Harris and the momentum she had and once again are controlling the narrative. The government is bad and out to get you narrative is in full effect. Trump will save us from the tyranny and no amount of factual data or reasoning will do one bit of good in trying to change their minds. It's truly a sad state of affairs.
CrazyNotCrazie
Member
The situation in western NC and elsewhere speaks to the idea of how passionate voters are. As we have discussed, there aren’t a lot of undecideds out there. But motivation is key.
When someone’s life has been turned upside down and they now have countless things to deal with to try to get back to normal, are they going to carve out to time to vote, particularly since that likely no longer is simply a short drive down the road and two minutes voting.
So the goal now is even more so to make people feel that it is worth the extra effort, not to change who they are voting for.
The next few weeks are going to be truly delightful!
When someone’s life has been turned upside down and they now have countless things to deal with to try to get back to normal, are they going to carve out to time to vote, particularly since that likely no longer is simply a short drive down the road and two minutes voting.
So the goal now is even more so to make people feel that it is worth the extra effort, not to change who they are voting for.
The next few weeks are going to be truly delightful!
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