2024 U.S. Presidential election

[JasonEvans]

Ok, we are getting this started. The GOP field now includes 6 very legitimate candidates who are holding rallies and appearing on cable networks. It feels like it is time.

But, before any of you get to posting, I need to post a reminder...

READ THIS BEFORE POSTING!!!

DBR political threads, like this one, are not the place for partisan fighting or debate. We will not allow taunting or attacks on fellow posters or the candidates. I also don't want to see any debate about public policy. This thread is not the place to explain what kind of gun control regulation you think America needs or to complain about the state of our border control efforts. In fact, this thread is probably better defined by what you CAN POST than what you can't.

This thread is exclusively for non-partisan analysis off the Presidential horserace. What are the polls saying? What is your opinion about the key states? What do you think of the new ad you just saw? The goal of every post should be to hide any political bias you might have from coming through. In an ideal world, no one should be able to tell whether you are a liberal or conservative or a moderate from your post.

And, perhaps most importantly, if you are going to attack or praise a candidate (or the analysis of a fellow poster) make sure you do it objectively and with as little personal passion as possible.

Infractions will be handed out for anyone who breaks these rules. There is no "leash" in this thread. You cross the line, even a little bit, and I am going to pop you... hard! If you are even a little bit concerned that your post might even approach the civility and partisan lines, feel free to DM me and ask about it before posting. And if you see someone posting something that seems out of bounds, report that post right away so I can deal with it. That is probably a better idea than an angry response that just escalates into you earning your own infraction.

There are some posters who have shown they cannot abide by the rules of the political threads. Those posters have been permanently banned from participating in these discussions. They are:

SueAxe/Golfinesquire
Left Hook Lacey
Throatybeard
Troublemaker
Wheat
AustinDevil​

Please, do not force me to add your name to that list. If you have any questions, post them here or send me a DM.

Thanks... now tread lightly and play nicely.

-Jason

 

[ClemmonsDevil]

Fun! Horse racing the Republican primary right now Trump is in prime position with DeSantis offering a real threat (Trump without the legal issues). Tim Scott, Haley and Hutchinson would have been strong candidates in 2008. But as currently constructed, I can't see any of them offering up any real challenge. The Trump team seems to think having a large field (again) helps him (again), because he has such a large base.

 

[JasonEvans]

The GOP field now includes 6 very legitimate candidates who are holding rallies and appearing on cable networks.

Apologies to Larry Elder... I guess there are maybe 7 legitimate candidates if we count Elder.

Donald Trump - former President
Nikki Haley - former UN Amb, fmr SC Gov
Vivek Ramaswamy - businessman
Asa Hutchinson - fmr Ark Gov
Larry Elder - talk-radio host, former CA Gov candidate
Tim Scott - SC Sen
Ron DeSantis - Fla Gov​

Interesting that we only have 2 people in the race who are currently in office. Also interesting that despite the saying, "every Senator wakes up in the morning and sees a President staring back in the mirror," we only have 1 GOP senator running thus far. I saw an excellent article in Politico about how the anti-Trump forces seem really divided between Tim Scott and Ron Desantis and how that might be a real boost for Trump.

This is all delightful to Trump, who is thrilled about the prospect of more candidates carving up the opposition. Never one for subtext, the former president responded to Scott’s entry by gleefully saying the primary “is rapidly loading up with lots of people.”

There was one other sign this week of Trump’s unique strength in the GOP, but you may have had to look for it. It was when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley used an appearance before reporters in New Hampshire to target DeSantis for “copying Trump” with his speaking style and even “his hand gestures.”

It was an admission from Haley, the first candidate after the former president to enter the race, that she’s not breaking through and must dislodge DeSantis to take on Trump. It was also an illustration of how little regard the other Republicans in the race have for DeSantis and the risk the Florida governor faces of these candidates cutting a deal with Trump to stay in the race and divide up the vote in exchange for some promise of, say, the vice-presidency or wokeness czar.

 

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Watching Desantis and Trump devour one another (possibly literally) on a debate stage will have to be my consolation prize for never getting the Trump/Bernie pay per view debates of my dreams.

 

[Phredd3]

Does directly associating himself with Elon Musk help DeSantis's chances against Trump in the Republican primary? And the follow-up question: Does it help or hurt in the general election, presumably against Biden?

 

[JasonEvans]

Watching Desantis and Trump devour one another (possibly literally) on a debate stage will have to be my consolation prize for never getting the Trump/Bernie pay per view debates of my dreams.

I suspect you will not see Trump take the debate stage, at least not until later in the process. He's made a lot of noise about that thus far: https://apnews.com/article/trump-20...tial-debates-e674cab77b1b37e29dcb834563c9b981

The Republican former president has privately said that a debate in August would be too early and he would not participate, according to two people familiar with his concerns who insisted on anonymity to detail private discussions. He also has stepped up his public complaints this week, suggesting that his poll numbers are so high he has no reason to compete with the rest of the field.

“I see that everybody is talking about the Republican Debates, but nobody got my approval, or the approval of the Trump Campaign, before announcing them,” Trump said in a Tuesday post on his social media network.

 

[budwom]

I don't see how Trump doesn't devour the competition one by one as he did last time, unless there is a legal reason....and legal proceedings may actually help him in that regard.

 

[ClemmonsDevil]

Does directly associating himself with Elon Musk help DeSantis's chances against Trump in the Republican primary? And the follow-up question: Does it help or hurt in the general election, presumably against Biden?

Recently (in the 2000s) the Republican presidential candidate has had to pivot after the Republican primary to be more broadly appealing. But what Trump figured out (and DeSantis seems to realize) is there is absolutely no need to pivot at all. Because of the EC, this election will come down to about 70,000-130,000 votes in about 3-4 states. The Republican candidate doesn't need to be broadly appealing. They no longer need to pivot.

 

[JasonEvans]

I don't see how Trump doesn't devour the competition one by one as he did last time, unless there is a legal reason...and legal proceedings may actually help him in that regard.

His New York criminal trial won't begin until late March, at the earliest. That will be after Super Tuesday and, in most campaigns, the nominee is pretty much a done deal by that point. I doubt potential charges from Georgia will be seen by most GOP voters as anything other than a political stunt (and I would imagine there is no way a trial gets underway before the middle of next year).

I do think a detailed and perhaps extensive indictment by the DOJ could hurt his numbers. Trump will likely call it a witch hunt but Special Prosecutor Jack Smith is a longtime Republican with a stellar reputation in the legal community. It will be tougher for Trump to paint those charges (if they come) as partisan attacks than the ones in New York and deep blue Fulton County, Georgia.

 

[budwom]

His New York criminal trial won't begin until late March, at the earliest. That will be after Super Tuesday and, in most campaigns, the nominee is pretty much a done deal by that point. I doubt potential charges from Georgia will be seen by most GOP voters as anything other than a political stunt (and I would imagine there is no way a trial gets underway before the middle of next year).

I do think a detailed and perhaps extensive indictment by the DOJ could hurt his numbers. Trump will likely call it a witch hunt but Special Prosecutor Jack Smith is a longtime Republican with a stellar reputation in the legal community. It will be tougher for Trump to paint those charges (if they come) as partisan attacks than the ones in New York and deep blue Fulton County, Georgia.

yeah, even with an indictment Trump has a solid core of Republican voters behind him which, IMO, will be sufficient to ward off all challengers. Jack Smith won't help him, but I don't think he'll come close to killing his chances. I just don't see a competitive challenger at this point.

 

[JasonEvans]

, this election will come down to about 70,000-130,000 votes in about 3-4 states.

Many political observers say all that matters is Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. If the Democrats win any of those, it is a done deal. The presumption is that if Pennsylvania or Michigan are really in play, the Democrats are doomed anyway. Similarly, if North Carolina is in play, the GOP candidate is probably already toast. I think Nevada and perhaps New Hampshire could also be very close in a tight election, but neither of them have enough EVs to swing the election one way or the other the way GA, WI, and AZ do.

 

[lotusland]

We’ve seen this movie before on the Republican side but now with DeSantis taking the Ted Cruz role while Tim Scott and Nicky Haley fighting for the sacrificial Jeb Bush role. How do you beat Trump without offending his base with him lobbing grenades every time you get within range? We know, from experience, that you can’t. Seems to me that Jack Smith is the only hope for any of them.

 

[ClemmonsDevil]

Many political observers say all that matters is Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. If the Democrats win any of those, it is a done deal. The presumption is that if Pennsylvania or Michigan are really in play, the Democrats are doomed anyway. Similarly, if North Carolina is in play, the GOP candidate is probably already toast. I think Nevada and perhaps New Hampshire could also be very close in a tight election, but neither of them have enough EVs to swing the election one way or the other the way GA, WI, and AZ do.

This is where I am too. If NC is in play Republicans are clearly not winning the general. If PA/MI are in play Dems clearly aren't winning the general. So all that matters at the presidential level are GA/WI/AZ. And Dems just need 1 while Republicans need all 3. BUT, the margins there are unbelievably close.

 

[Bostondevil]

We’ve seen this movie before on the Republican side but now with DeSantis taking the Ted Cruz role while Tim Scott and Nicky Haley fighting for the sacrificial Jeb Bush role. How do you beat Trump without offending his base with him lobbing grenades every time you get within range? We know, from experience, that you can’t. Seems to me that Jack Smith is the only hope for any of them.

Appeal to younger voters. Will enough of Trump's base still be alive in a year to vote for him?

 

[OldPhiKap]

Chris Christie, if he runs, is the only R candidate I see that can stand toe-to-toe with Trump and fight it out. Everyone else just seems like roadkill at this point.

 

[ClemmonsDevil]

Chris Christie, if he runs, is the only R candidate I see that can stand toe-to-toe with Trump and fight it out. Everyone else just seems like roadkill at this point.

There is a school of thought (Pod save America ascribes to this) that Christie will get in to go at Trump to function as a blocker for other Republicans. Tear at Trump to weaken him, not because Christie can win.

 

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

There is a school of thought (Pod save America ascribes to this) that Christie will get in to go at Trump to function as a blocker for other Republicans. Tear at Trump to weaken him, not because Christie can win.

Outside of the bridge fiasco, Chris Christie always seemed like a fairly moderate candidate. Before Trump, he sort of had the mantle of "likeable enough bully."

 

[JasonEvans]

There is a school of thought (Pod save America ascribes to this) that Christie will get in to go at Trump to function as a blocker for other Republicans. Tear at Trump to weaken him, not because Christie can win.

This is the role Liz Cheney wanted to play, but I think she realizes that her spot on the Jan 6th committee made GOP voters so angry that she has no voice in the party any more. Christie is a better proxy.

I think someone is going to try to play this role of Trump attacker without having a real shot at winning. But the tightrope act is a delicate one for the GOP. Getting rid of Trump while keeping his base engaged is a super difficult task. Our partisan divide is so close, if even 5% of Trump voters say they cannot support a non-Trump nominee, that probably spells doom for the GOP candidate.

 

[camion]

One question I have is: What are the odds that both of the front runners will still be hale and hearty a year from now? Spring chickens they aren't.

 

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Any chance that anyone challenges Biden in a primary?