2024 U.S. Presidential election

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But will it? If you believe like I do that he is fear-mongering the hurricanes/FEMA and Israel-Iran to push ahead, what's happening on her side to counteract that surge?

Israel is about to attack, so that issue will get worse for her before it gets better.

I think it lets Biden and Harris off the hook to chalk the public's foreign policy jitters to fear mongering by Trump. There are real reasons to be concerned. Here is reporting from NBC that US military officials have floated providing intelligence to Israel to facilitate retaliatory strikes on Iran or even direct American strikes on Iran (either of which, besides being wildly escalatory, would also be illegal without congressional authorization, but the rule of law is already way out the window here). There was also the recent Politico story which revealed that administration officials (i.e. Brett McGurk) encouraged Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon. No one should have any confidence that the current administration is going to do anything to bring about peace. Things are only getting more dangerous and escalatory (just today, the IDF fired at and injured Irish soldiers in Lebanon as UN peacekeepers, a fun new twist), and Biden is either driving the car or along for the ride.

All this is very unpopular and does no political favors for Harris. But she's all in, too, repeatedly making clear that there is zero daylight between her and Biden.

There is no reason to think Trump would be any better on any of this stuff, but you can't blame him for Harris deciding to double down on Biden's folly. Maybe she's a genuine neo-con and is just following her heart, but the political math here is baffling.
 
I don't post in this thread a lot but read it every day. Just like all of you when I go on social media the algorithm feeds me content based on my beliefs and I am largely ignorant of what is being espoused by the opposite side other than what I see on the news and what left leaning outlets are telling me. However, one platform I rarely get on is X but during major weather events I go there because I can find a lot of good information from meteorologists posting their opinions along with a lot a very extensive information that you wouldn't get from the local news or CNN / MSNBC etc.
Let me tell you, if you believe there are just a few fringe extreme views out there and only a few people pushing them and largely the voting republic has at least some grip on reality then you should take a dive down some rabbit holes in there. I equate it to going on the UNC boards after they lose to Duke. It has been truly sobering the last few days learning just how widespread the extremism is. First you see an absurd conspiracy theory post which is crazy in itself but then go look at the comments and just how many are drinking the Kool-Aid. It is truly discouraging to know that that many people are that far detached from reality.

I do think the whole misinformation campaign is having an affect on the race. They have taken back the spotlight off of Harris and the momentum she had and once again are controlling the narrative. The government is bad and out to get you narrative is in full effect. Trump will save us from the tyranny and no amount of factual data or reasoning will do one bit of good in trying to change their minds. It's truly a sad state of affairs.

It is truly discouraging to know that that many people are that far detached from reality.

Actually, out on X, we can assume 80% or more of those outlandish comments come from Bots, Russian trolls, Russian-paid U.S influencers, or Russian paid PR firms.

Xitter has become utterly unsurfable, IMO.
 
Interesting thought experiment for those so inclined:

A Crazier Path to 270: Can Harris Wrest Alaska Away From Trump?


 
I think it lets Biden and Harris off the hook to chalk the public's foreign policy jitters to fear mongering by Trump. There are real reasons to be concerned. Here is reporting from NBC that US military officials have floated providing intelligence to Israel to facilitate retaliatory strikes on Iran or even direct American strikes on Iran (either of which, besides being wildly escalatory, would also be illegal without congressional authorization, but the rule of law is already way out the window here). There was also the recent Politico story which revealed that administration officials (i.e. Brett McGurk) encouraged Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon. No one should have any confidence that the current administration is going to do anything to bring about peace. Things are only getting more dangerous and escalatory (just today, the IDF fired at and injured Irish soldiers in Lebanon as UN peacekeepers, a fun new twist), and Biden is either driving the car or along for the ride.

All this is very unpopular and does no political favors for Harris. But she's all in, too, repeatedly making clear that there is zero daylight between her and Biden.

There is no reason to think Trump would be any better on any of this stuff, but you can't blame him for Harris deciding to double down on Biden's folly. Maybe she's a genuine neo-con and is just following her heart, but the political math here is baffling.
She can't break from Biden's foreign policy while she's VP.

Netanyahu has correctly surmised that he has a window here to attack his enemies without the US government doing anything to stop him. He has also done the calculation that the more violent and chaotic the Iran situation becomes ahead of Nov 5, the better it is for Trump.

I may be wrong, but I choose to believe that starting on Jan 20, if Harris gets elected, she will come down hard on Netanyahu's lawlessness and begin to put conditions on any weapons heading to Israel. I know for certain Trump won't.
 
LOL! Trump was one of the least effective Presidents in his first term and government programs are like zombies, impossible to kill. Of the things I worry about in a second term, him being able to kill FEMA and the National Weather Service are numbers 143 and 178 respectively.

Perhaps. Louis DeJoy is still postmaster general and the USPS has felt the negative effects of his regime. Trump doesn't have to kill the National Weather Service or FEMA completely to render them either ineffective or less effective. If the National Weather Service and FEMA are less effective during the 2025 hurricane season, the people that will probably feel it the most are those that live in the rural South.
 
She can't break from Biden's foreign policy while she's VP.

First of all, why not?

Even short of a "break," she could be more equivocal in her public support, have her campaign leak displeasure, or find other ways to signal how she would be different than Biden. We haven't see any of that.

Netanyahu has correctly surmised that he has a window here to attack his enemies without the US government doing anything to stop him. He has also done the calculation that the more violent and chaotic the Iran situation becomes ahead of Nov 5, the better it is for Trump.

I may be wrong, but I choose to believe that starting on Jan 20, if Harris gets elected, she will come down hard on Netanyahu's lawlessness and begin to put conditions on any weapons heading to Israel. I know for certain Trump won't.

Maybe she will, but again she has given zero indication that that is her plan. Quite the opposite.
 
First of all, why not?

Even short of a "break," she could be more equivocal in her public support, have her campaign leak displeasure, or find other ways to signal how she would be different than Biden. We haven't see any of that.



Maybe she will, but again she has given zero indication that that is her plan. Quite the opposite.
She's trying to win an election and battle the "soft radical left coast liberal" label that Trump and right wing media have tagged her with.

I think you and I both would love to see her stand-up and channel Bernie Sanders and say "no more offensive weapons for this outlaw Netanyahu regime". While that may win her more enthusiasm on the left, I think she's correctly calculated that she would get bludgeoned in the middle.

Plus, I do think it's wrong to challenge/undermine Biden's positions and authority on Ukraine and Israel during times of war.

Now once she's commander-in-chief, if she doesn't come down hard on Netanyahu, I will be very disappointed.
 
I think it lets Biden and Harris off the hook to chalk the public's foreign policy jitters to fear mongering by Trump. There are real reasons to be concerned. Here is reporting from NBC that US military officials have floated providing intelligence to Israel to facilitate retaliatory strikes on Iran or even direct American strikes on Iran (either of which, besides being wildly escalatory, would also be illegal without congressional authorization, but the rule of law is already way out the window here). There was also the recent Politico story which revealed that administration officials (i.e. Brett McGurk) encouraged Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon. No one should have any confidence that the current administration is going to do anything to bring about peace. Things are only getting more dangerous and escalatory (just today, the IDF fired at and injured Irish soldiers in Lebanon as UN peacekeepers, a fun new twist), and Biden is either driving the car or along for the ride.

All this is very unpopular and does no political favors for Harris. But she's all in, too, repeatedly making clear that there is zero daylight between her and Biden.

There is no reason to think Trump would be any better on any of this stuff, but you can't blame him for Harris deciding to double down on Biden's folly. Maybe she's a genuine neo-con and is just following her heart, but the political math here is baffling.
The problem with your analysis is the implicit assumption that peace is either (1) possible or (2) Netanyahu’s objective. The far-right parties have Netanyahu by the balls; if they withdraw their support for the current coalition government, it falls, and preparations for Netanyahu’s criminal trial begin in earnest. He knows it. They know it. The result is that Netanyahu is all in on genocide.
 
She's trying to win an election and battle the "soft radical left coast liberal" label that Trump and right wing media have tagged her with.

I think you and I both would love to see her stand-up and channel Bernie Sanders and say "no more offensive weapons for this outlaw Netanyahu regime". While that may win her more enthusiasm on the left, I think she's correctly calculated that she would get bludgeoned in the middle.

I understand the logic, I think the premise is just wrong. Foreign affairs generally and the Middle East in particular are one of Biden's worst polling areas. What is the logic in saying "You know that guy you hate? OK, you know that one thing you think he's doing a really bad job on? I'm going to do the exact same thing." Find a better message!
 
I understand the logic, I think the premise is just wrong. Foreign affairs generally and the Middle East in particular are one of Biden's worst polling areas. What is the logic in saying "You know that guy you hate? OK, you know that one thing you think he's doing a really bad job on? I'm going to do the exact same thing." Find a better message!

Because politics stops at the oceans or whatever the old saying is. The admin is doing a dangerous dance right now herding cats and whatnot. Having the sitting vice President come out and criticize what is going on (especially when most of it is not public) would be disastrous. Bibi would have free rein and the only narrative between now and the election is “Dems in disarray” and “should Kamala invoke the 25th”, etc.

Crote - I understand you are passionate about this issue. Please be mindful that this issue has nearly derailed the thread multiple times. Many of us also feel passionate about it but have learned to drop it for this thread as debating the nuances of Middle East policy doesn’t fall under the instruction of “only discuss issues as they affect the horse race”.
 
The problem with your analysis is the implicit assumption that peace is either (1) possible or (2) Netanyahu’s objective. The far-right parties have Netanyahu by the balls; if they withdraw their support for the current coalition government, it falls, and preparations for Netanyahu’s criminal trial begin in earnest. He knows it. They know it. The result is that Netanyahu is all in on genocide.

Your summation of Bibi's domestic political situation is accurate. But what part of that compels the United States to continue arming him? To give him diplomatic cover? To encourage him to invade a sovereign neighbor? To provoke bomb targets in a half dozen other nations?

It's been said repeatedly, but Reagan and W. Bush both intervened when they thought Israel's actions might result in bad blowback for US interests. That inclination is simply absent here.
 
I understand the logic, I think the premise is just wrong. Foreign affairs generally and the Middle East in particular are one of Biden's worst polling areas. What is the logic in saying "You know that guy you hate? OK, you know that one thing you think he's doing a really bad job on? I'm going to do the exact same thing." Find a better message!
Unfortunately, it's down the list of things Americans care about. Way behind the economy and immigration. But Trump will continue to push it up the list after Netanyahu does whatever he's about to do in Iran.

I hear your points. Her calculus may or may not have been different if she weren't the sitting VP. But yes, Netanyahu has absolutely played and now humiliated Biden as he continues to mumble "ceasefire, ceasefire, ...".
 
Tens of thousands of dead children, dude.
Really? Where? That's just awful. I would love to know where conflict has caused tens of thousands of children to be killed. How tragic!

Wait, I just figured it out. You are unquestionably expressing your outrage over the US response to 9-11. I mean, the US killed 200,000 civilians in the invasion of Iraq which almost had to include tens of thousands of children.

My memory is fuzzy... I'm trying to recall, did the UN pass resolutions condemning the US for that outrage? And remind me, was Iraq holding American citizens hostage?

Gosh, I keep on getting my conflicts confused. Some seem justified and others not so much. I really is tough to know what the right thing to do is.
 
LOL! Trump was one of the least effective Presidents in his first term and government programs are like zombies, impossible to kill. Of the things I worry about in a second term, him being able to kill FEMA and the National Weather Service are numbers 143 and 178 respectively.
While that is probably true, the useful idiot role allowed his GOP puppeteers to win the long game with the judiciary. That's generational change. That's the biggest and lasting political legacy that people overlook and will make it easier to dismantle the federal system. And I mean that literally, figuratively, politically and philosophically.
 
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