This Week in the ACC - 2/10-2/16

Wake is such an interesting case. Torvik only gives them a 7% chance of making the tourney, projecting 14-6 in the ACC and 1-8 in Q1 games. They are up to #60 in the NET but still behind Pitt, UNC, SMU.

Torvik has them as 7 point underdogs at SMU. Maybe if they do spring that upset and grab another Q1 win, they at least move to the bubble. They are also slight underdogs at NCSU in their next game.
 
SkyBrickey said:
Wake is such an interesting case. Torvik only gives them a 7% chance of making the tourney, projecting 14-6 in the ACC and 1-8 in Q1 games. They are up to #60 in the NET but still behind Pitt, UNC, SMU.

Torvik has them as 7 point underdogs at SMU. Maybe if they do spring that upset and grab another Q1 win, they at least move to the bubble. They are also slight underdogs at NCSU in their next game.
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Wake is a very interesting case. No offense to Torvik, but I prefer crowdsourcing as it includes (at least theoretically) a wide breadth of opinions.

BracketMatrix has Wake in. Today. As an 11-seed. Tied with SDSU as a 10.90. And ahead of Arkansas, who is the final projected at-large. BracketMatrix then goes on to show the first four out as BYU, SMU, UNC, and Pitt. Wow.

- Chillin
 
ChillinDuke said:
Wake is a very interesting case. No offense to Torvik, but I prefer crowdsourcing as it includes (at least theoretically) a wide breadth of opinions.

BracketMatrix has Wake in. Today. As an 11-seed. Tied with SDSU as a 10.90. And ahead of Arkansas, who is the final projected at-large. BracketMatrix then goes on to show the first four out as BYU, SMU, UNC, and Pitt. Wow.

- Chillin
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Curious how that works when SDSU is in 104/108 brackets and Wake is only in 90/108 brackets. Is Wake getting dinged for that?

My other question would be does this factor in the handful of "bid stealer" conference tourney upsets that happen every year?

Yes, the computers really don't like Wake's resume vs the humans. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. It is humans that pick the field...
 
SkyBrickey said:
Wake is such an interesting case. Torvik only gives them a 7% chance of making the tourney, projecting 14-6 in the ACC and 1-8 in Q1 games. They are up to #60 in the NET but still behind Pitt, UNC, SMU.

Torvik has them as 7 point underdogs at SMU. Maybe if they do spring that upset and grab another Q1 win, they at least move to the bubble. They are also slight underdogs at NCSU in their next game.
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I agree Wake’s chances to make the tournament continually surprise me. I was at the Duke Wake game, and the eye test tells me they are the 4th best team in the conference. Although admittedly, I have only watched SMU once when we played them, so maybe they are better than I think.

Wake has had a pretty brutal travel schedule recently. They were on the west coast all last week, playing Cal and Stanford, and just returned home Sunday. After playing Fla. St. tonight, they have to travel to play at SMU Saturday, and against their former point guard Boopie Miller. That’s probably a tall order for them, given that they usually don’t play as well on the road. But I think that game may tell us who gets bid no. 4, if anyone.
 
SavDukeGrad said:
I agree Wake’s chances to make the tournament continually surprise me. I was at the Duke Wake game, and the eye test tells me they are the 4th best team in the conference. Although admittedly, I have only watched SMU once when we played them, so maybe they are better than I think.

Wake has had a pretty brutal travel schedule recently. They were on the west coast all last week, playing Cal and Stanford, and just returned home Sunday. After playing Fla. St. tonight, they have to travel to play at SMU Saturday, and against their former point guard Boopie Miller. That’s probably a tall order for them, given that they usually don’t play as well on the road. But I think that game may tell us who gets bid no. 4, if anyone.
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The next three games are the season for Wake, IMO. They have a home game against sneaky FSU, who at KP #80 is not all that bad (and statistically, somewhat similar to Wake). Then it's the monster at SMU. And then away at #103 NC State, who is an in-state rival and a 'B' game on KP. Wake is 7-0 in 'B' games, by the way.

If they can get all three wins, they would be 21-6, 13-3, likely in the KP Top-55, with four games left all at home except the lone away game at Duke. They're in at that point, I'd say. They may need a win in the ACCT to solidify it, but I'd expect in.

FWIW, KP has them winning every remaining game except at SMU and at Duke. The SMU game is the real opportunity for a Q1 win as well as changing the statistical narrative.

- Chillin
 
ChillinDuke said:
The next three games are the season for Wake, IMO. They have a home game against sneaky FSU, who at KP #80 is not all that bad (and statistically, somewhat similar to Wake). Then it's the monster at SMU. And then away at #103 NC State, who is an in-state rival and a 'B' game on KP. Wake is 7-0 in 'B' games, by the way.

If they can get all three wins, they would be 21-6, 13-3, likely in the KP Top-55, with four games left all at home except the lone away game at Duke. They're in at that point, I'd say. They may need a win in the ACCT to solidify it, but I'd expect in.

FWIW, KP has them winning every remaining game except at SMU and at Duke. The SMU game is the real opportunity for a Q1 win as well as changing the statistical narrative.

- Chillin
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If they win their next 3 games, I'd agree they are in the tourney. FWIW Torvik gives them only a 7.4% chance of winning all 3.
 
Huge choke by Wake, as FSU finishes game on 27-9 run to steal it.

Wake may be suddenly dead. They may need SMU and Duke. A couple losses between now and then would be nice. I don't want to be playing Wake for their lives.

- Chillin
 
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