Observations from Countdown and practice

[JasonEvans]

Duke going seven deep with starters in the first practice...

I find it hard to believe that Jon has made up his mind on the rotation after 2 weeks of practice.

This wasn't the first practice. There haven't only been two weeks of practice. Jon has been watching these guys play/practice together for months. They team first arrived on campus four months ago. They've almost certainly got 200+ hours of practice with Jon watching at this point.

I think Sky's point about Kon being waaaay better than anyone (including the coaching staff) expected and how that has impacted Gillis' role on this team is a great one. If Kon was looking like a 20mpg freshman, I suspect this would be a very different conversation. I have also heard that Sion has been better than expected (the coaching staff has been pleasantly surprised by his outside shot) as well and that has changed some of the wing calculus too (I think we will see at least some of Sion playing alongside Foster and Proctor).

It is worth noting that Mason Gillis is not a guy who would complain or be upset with a lesser role if it means the team is more successful. If he only gets maybe one brief first half run in major competitive games, he will gladly take that in exchange for being on a championship contender.

Lastly, I repeatedly heard over the weekend -- from really, really, really good sources -- that Scheyer feels like 7 guys have separated themselves from the rest of the team in terms of performance. That is one of the reasons I was keenly watching who played in white and who did not when I was at the open practice.

I came into the weekend hoping to hear about a 10-man rotation. I have spoken about my desire for that all off-season. But when I started to hear Scheyer has found 7 guys and then when I saw what happened at practice... well, I just wanted to share it so the rest of you could come around to what I am being told will be our reality this year.

And I feel great about the fact that if if if there are injuries that impact this team -- lord, I hope not! -- we will have guys like Mason (and Evans/Harris/Ngongba) who can step up and capably fill in if we need it.

 

[phaedrus]

Some serious revisionist history, Jason, because you absolutely DID predict what will happen when you said you were
"skeptical that Mason Gillis, Isiah Evans and Darren Harris will see more than spot minutes in competitive games this year. Not sure how that is not a prediction.
I thought that was an awful take and I still do.

Yep, the observation that certain players played together (or did not play together) for one open practice (side note: we talkin' 'bout practice?) was rightfully described as objective fact.

Every conclusion stated about what that means for future games falls in the realm of prediction, hypothesis, speculation, surmise, etc.

I agree it's a piece of evidence that there's currently a "top 7", but I agree with others that it's a logical leap to suggest, based on this alone, that no one else will play rotation minutes (even barring injury).

 

[JasonEvans]

Yep, the observation that certain players played together (or did not play together) for one open practice (side note: we talkin' 'bout practice?) was rightfully described as objective fact.

Every conclusion stated about what that means for future games falls in the realm of prediction, hypothesis, speculation, surmise, etc.

I agree it's a piece of evidence that there's currently a "top 7", but I agree with others that it's a logical leap to suggest, based on this alone, that no one else will play rotation minutes (even barring injury).

No prob. I freely concede that I was making a prediction/projection based on what I saw was happening right now.

We are releasing a pod in a few hours where I talk about all this a bit more clearly (I hope). I think I specifically say that... "If the ACC or NCAA tournament was being played today, I think Gillis would be playing less than 10 mpg."

That is where I am at the moment.

 

[phaedrus]

This wasn't the first practice. There haven't only been two weeks of practice. Jon has been watching these guys play/practice together for months. They team first arrived on campus four months ago. They've almost certainly got 200+ hours of practice with Jon watching at this point.

I think Sky's point about Kon being waaaay better than anyone (including the coaching staff) expected and how that has impacted Gillis' role on this team is a great one. If Kon was looking like a 20mpg freshman, I suspect this would be a very different conversation. I have also heard that Sion has been better than expected (the coaching staff has been pleasantly surprised by his outside shot) as well and that has changed some of the wing calculus too (I think we will see at least some of Sion playing alongside Foster and Proctor).

It is worth noting that Mason Gillis is not a guy who would complain or be upset with a lesser role if it means the team is more successful. If he only gets maybe one brief first half run in major competitive games, he will gladly take that in exchange for being on a championship contender.

Lastly, I repeatedly heard over the weekend -- from really, really, really good sources -- that Scheyer feels like 7 guys have separated themselves from the rest of the team in terms of performance. That is one of the reasons I was keenly watching who played in white and who did not when I was at the open practice.

I came into the weekend hoping to hear about a 10-man rotation. I have spoken about my desire for that all off-season. But when I started to hear Scheyer has found 7 guys and then when I saw what happened at practice... well, I just wanted to share it so the rest of you could come around to what I am being told will be our reality this year.

And I feel great about the fact that if if if there are injuries that impact this team -- lord, I hope not! -- we will have guys like Mason (and Evans/Harris/Ngongba) who can step up and capably fill in if we need it.

Somewhat related question: your original tweet, unless I misinterpreted it, said there were six guys who rotated in white - and Brown as not included. You then said there was a top seven, which presumably included Brown. So I'm curious: did Brown play with the other "top seven" in this practice?

 

[SkyBrickey]

As the biggest Kon cheerleader on this thread, I will again share the observation that Cooper and especially Foster were "picking on" Kon with their dribble drives during the scrimmage.

Not a huge deal because these guys all know each other well. And the starting 5 will get really good at helping Kon a bit with any defensive struggles.

But if a team is isolating and exploiting Kon repeatedly on drives, I have no doubt Jon will pull him for the plus defender Mason - or maybe even the plus defender Sion gets some run at the 3. Just something to keep an eye on.

 

[JasonEvans]

Somewhat related question: your original tweet, unless I misinterpreted it, said there were six guys who rotated in white - and Brown as not included. You then said there was a top seven, which presumably included Brown. So I'm curious: did Brown play with the other "top seven" in this practice?

Yes. The initial tweet was before Brown had joined the white bunch but he did so repeatedly during the practice. It always followed the same pattern -- starters in white; about halfway through the drill/scrimmage Sion joins them (generally moving CFos onto the blue team, which needed a PG with Sion on white); a short time later Maliq comes over to the white (sending Man-Man to the sidelines and often coinciding with Spencer coming to the blue to play point while CFos joins Man-Man to the side). There was one time --only one time -- where Gillis also put on white. Evans and Harris never wore white.

Significantly, I don't think I ever saw Maliq and Man-man playing together in white. I did see Sion, CFos, and Proctor play together while Kon was on the sidelines though.

 

[jv001]

2 weeks of official practice. But they've been watching and working with them all summer. Jon definitely knows the broad strokes of his rotation. I'd be very surprised if he hasn't already decided on his 1-8 and a general substitution pattern.

He knows for example that Foster will be the guy who will play the 1 and 2 so he needs to get him reps at both.

I'm betting he's also decided who backs up Cooper at the 4 when he's out - Gillis or Brown? I'm guessing it's Gillis so he needs to get Gillis reps at both the 3 and the 4.

The season comes and goes quickly, so Jon has every reason to figure out who his top guys are and have them working together on the court as much as possible.

That's (bolded) what I was talking about. The freshmen in particular need to be on the court as much as possible. The learning curve is harder for high school players coming to a highly regarded division one program like Duke. I'm with you that it will be Gillis backing up the 4. I think Brown will get most of his minutes at the 5 with a few at the 4.

GoDuke!

 

[Phredd3]

I think Scheyer should run over to Kara's office and see how she manages to handle getting nine players a minimum of 12 minutes per game and all playing 34 of 34 games. That's a team that plays fast and plays lockdown defense. Granted, Kara's defensive schemes are complex and demanding, and they pretty much require multi-year players to learn them, so maybe it just doesn't translate to the money-driven, what-can-you-do-for-me-right-now morass that is the men's game these days. But dang, Kara's team is a full-blown team in every sense of the word.

And to think people wonder why I bother to follow the women....

 

[SkyBrickey]

Yes. The initial tweet was before Brown had joined the white bunch but he did so repeatedly during the practice. It always followed the same pattern -- starters in white; about halfway through the drill/scrimmage Sion joins them (generally moving CFos onto the blue team, which needed a PG with Sion on white); a short time later Maliq comes over to the white (sending Man-Man to the sidelines and often coinciding with Spencer coming to the blue to play point while CFos joins Man-Man to the side). There was one time --only one time -- where Gillis also put on white. Evans and Harris never wore white.

Significantly, I don't think I ever saw Maliq and Man-man playing together in white. I did see Sion, CFos, and Proctor play together while Kon was on the sidelines though.

Let's celebrate the great news here.

Jon thinks Man is ready to start ahead of Maliq - who we know is really good.

And Jon thinks Kon is ready to start ahead of Mason - who we know is really good.

This confirms a really high ceiling for this team.

 

[JasonEvans]

I'm with you that it will be Gillis backing up the 4. I think Brown will get most of his minutes at the 5 with a few at the 4.

Then you need to ask yourself how much you think Cooper will sit in important games at the end of the season. If you think he will play 30+ minutes per game (I sure do!!), then you have to give Gillis time at the 3 for him to reach double-digit minutes...

And then you have to ask yourself if Duke is better with Sion (3-guard lineup) or a mini dose of Evans (microwave!!) at the 3 versus Gillis being there.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Just looked up some 8th man mpg from some other top teams last year...

UConn - 11.5
Purdue - 10.0
Alabama - 12.3

I would guess all the top 8 guys on these teams mpg get deflated a bit by the 9-12 guys playing mop up minutes in non-competitive games.

So it could be that these guys are playing more like 12-15mpg in competitive games.

 

[superdave]

A couple of thoughts here -

Freshman big men tend to foul at a high rate which puts a ceiling on their minutes. Minutes forecasts for Maluach and Maliq Brown should take this into account.

Less of a thought and more of a question - What kind of leap are we assuming from Proctor and Foster?

Similarly, do we expect Evans and Harris to make enough of a leap in-season to increase minutes from November to March?

 

[DukieTiger]

I think Scheyer should run over to Kara's office and see how she manages to handle getting nine players a minimum of 12 minutes per game and all playing 34 of 34 games. That's a team that plays fast and plays lockdown defense. Granted, Kara's defensive schemes are complex and demanding, and they pretty much require multi-year players to learn them, so maybe it just doesn't translate to the money-driven, what-can-you-do-for-me-right-now morass that is the men's game these days. But dang, Kara's team is a full-blown team in every sense of the word.

And to think people wonder why I bother to follow the women....

Then Kara can ask Jon what it’s like to win the ACC.

Kidding, but also making the point that there’s no singular “right” way to manage a rotation. Implying that Jon should take a page out of Kara’s book seems silly when, if anything, his approach has been more successful to-date. And Scheyer’s teams play pretty darn good defense as well.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Then you need to ask yourself how much you think Cooper will sit in important games at the end of the season. If you think he will play 30+ minutes per game (I sure do!!), then you have to give Gillis time at the 3 for him to reach double-digit minutes...

And then you have to ask yourself if Duke is better with Sion (3-guard lineup) or a mini dose of Evans (microwave!!) at the 3 versus Gillis being there.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Jon giving Evans the chance to earn those 8th man minutes over Gillis. All things equal, you give the minutes to Evans as an investment in the future.

But it probably depends on what you need more off the bench. Defense (Gillis) or offense (Evans)?

 

[azzefkram]

As the biggest Kon cheerleader on this thread, I will again share the observation that Cooper and especially Foster were "picking on" Kon with their dribble drives during the scrimmage.

Not a huge deal because these guys all know each other well. And the starting 5 will get really good at helping Kon a bit with any defensive struggles.

But if a team is isolating and exploiting Kon repeatedly on drives, I have no doubt Jon will pull him for the plus defender Mason - or maybe even the plus defender Sion gets some run at the 3. Just something to keep an eye on.

Getting driven on by the presumptive number 1 pick of the upcoming NBA draft is not a huge deal. That's going to happen to a ton of players.

Getting driven on by Caleb is a huge deal. Caleb was not particularly good at getting into the paint last season and did not have a clean offseason to work on it. This is my concern about Kon playing major minutes; the Blue-White game did nothing to alleviate those concerns. I saw the excellent offense and the extremely high BB IQ, but the defense on the perimeter was not good.

Kon is, at worst, a top 3 offensive player on Duke, but probably not in top 8 defensively. I don't think that is a player that should be playing 30 minutes a night.

 

[SkyBrickey]

A couple of thoughts here -

Freshman big men tend to foul at a high rate which puts a ceiling on their minutes. Minutes forecasts for Maluach and Maliq Brown should take this into account.

Less of a thought and more of a question - What kind of leap are we assuming from Proctor and Foster?

Similarly, do we expect Evans and Harris to make enough of a leap in-season to increase minutes from November to March?

Good stuff. I do think some games the Maluach/Brown minutes split might be 28/12 and other games it might be 20/20 or even 15/25 if there's a quick mobile scoring big giving Khaman problems.

I'm just assuming an incremental leap across the board from Proctor. But I'm expecting Foster to be unleashed and to be a much more potent scorer for us this year.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Getting driven on by the presumptive number 1 pick of the upcoming NBA draft is not a huge deal. That's going to happen to a ton of players.

Getting driven on by Caleb is a huge deal. Caleb was not particularly good at getting into the paint last season and did not have a clean offseason to work on it. This is my concern about Kon playing major minutes; the Blue-White game did nothing to alleviate those concerns. I saw the excellent offense and the extremely high BB IQ, but the defense on the perimeter was not good.

Kon is, at worst, a top 3 offensive player on Duke, but probably not in top 8 defensively. I don't think that is a player that should be playing 30 minutes a night.

I don't think we saw the best of Kon at CTC.

Givony watched three scrimmages and said he was "clearly the best player on the court" for all three. That's an unreal statement.

I think he's elite offensively and average to slightly below average on D. And on this team I bet that earns him 25-30mpg.

 

[luvdahops]

This wasn't the first practice. There haven't only been two weeks of practice. Jon has been watching these guys play/practice together for months. They team first arrived on campus four months ago. They've almost certainly got 200+ hours of practice with Jon watching at this point.

I think Sky's point about Kon being waaaay better than anyone (including the coaching staff) expected and how that has impacted Gillis' role on this team is a great one. If Kon was looking like a 20mpg freshman, I suspect this would be a very different conversation. I have also heard that Sion has been better than expected (the coaching staff has been pleasantly surprised by his outside shot) as well and that has changed some of the wing calculus too (I think we will see at least some of Sion playing alongside Foster and Proctor).

It is worth noting that Mason Gillis is not a guy who would complain or be upset with a lesser role if it means the team is more successful. If he only gets maybe one brief first half run in major competitive games, he will gladly take that in exchange for being on a championship contender.

Lastly, I repeatedly heard over the weekend -- from really, really, really good sources -- that Scheyer feels like 7 guys have separated themselves from the rest of the team in terms of performance. That is one of the reasons I was keenly watching who played in white and who did not when I was at the open practice.

I came into the weekend hoping to hear about a 10-man rotation. I have spoken about my desire for that all off-season. But when I started to hear Scheyer has found 7 guys and then when I saw what happened at practice... well, I just wanted to share it so the rest of you could come around to what I am being told will be our reality this year.

And I feel great about the fact that if if if there are injuries that impact this team -- lord, I hope not! -- we will have guys like Mason (and Evans/Harris/Ngongba) who can step up and capably fill in if we need it.

I think this gets to the heart of the issue. I can understand Jon seeing that 7 guys have separated themselves in practice. But I still believe he should experiment with different combinations and give all of the healthy 10 potential rotation players some decent PT during non-conference to see how things look against external competition. Which can be very different than how they look in practice. Also important, for a variety of reasons, for the number 8-10 guys to get some PT every game and feel like they have an opportunity to play their way up in the rotation (and the 1-7 to play their way down) over the course of the season.

In the latter stages of his career, K seemed almost obsessive about figuring out his starters and rotation as early as possible and maxing out their opportunities together. Many of us on DBR saw this as more of a defect than a feature though, as it often seemed to result in teams that peaked in December and were too predictable and/or vulnerable to injuries in March. IMHO, the pressures introduced by the portal seem like another quite valid reason for Jon to NOT take that approach.

 

[azzefkram]

I don't think we saw the best of Kon at CTC.

That is certainly possible.

Givony watched three scrimmages and said he was "clearly the best player on the court" for all three. That's an unreal statement.

There is nothing remotely unreal about that statement. Much like Kon may have had a "not the best of Kon CTC," the scrimmages Givony saw may have been the best of Kon coupled with not the best from Cooper. It happens all the time. Two years ago, people were talking about how far away Flip was after a scrimmage.

I think he's elite offensively and average to slightly below average on D. And on this team I bet that earns him 25-30mpg.

He is elite offensively but he did not show average to slightly below average defense at CTC. Far from it. His offense should get him significant playing time but not to the level of Cooper, Tyrese, and Caleb. If his defense is much better than he showed at CTC, then you are probably correct in your playing time assumptions.

 

[jv001]

Then you need to ask yourself how much you think Cooper will sit in important games at the end of the season. If you think he will play 30+ minutes per game (I sure do!!), then you have to give Gillis time at the 3 for him to reach double-digit minutes...

And then you have to ask yourself if Duke is better with Sion (3-guard lineup) or a mini dose of Evans (microwave!!) at the 3 versus Gillis being there.

Oh yes. I believe Cooper will get at least 30 minutes per game against tougher teams. I believe Gillis gets most of his minutes at the 4 and Brown will get 15-25 minutes at the 5. I've seen how freshmen big men get into foul trouble and Brown is not a big drop off behind Malauch. As for Tyrese, Caleb and Sion, I see Tyrese getting 30 minutes for his defense and point-guard skills. Caleb and possibly Sion will give him some rest. I'm not as positive as Sky on Caleb having a great season. I could see Sion and Evans getting some of his minutes if he doesn't improve over last season. What position do you see Kon getting his minutes at if Cooper plays the 3. I guess he would play the 4.

GoDuke!