MBB: The 2025 Transfer Portal

There have been some conversations about expanding the fifth year of eligibility, which I believe @JasonEvans has reported on a bit, but it sounded like there would be string attached to it. Given the NCAA's impotency, who knows whether they could actually enforce that...

However, I'd be on board with using a fifth year of eligibility as a "carrot" to potentially minimize roster turnover. Imagine a case in which you were only eligible for a fifth-year if you received an undergraduate degree in four years—that would mean the guys who play for four schools in four years would be very hard pressed to earn that fifth year, while the Mason Gillis' and Sion James' of the world would be rewarded with an extra year of NIL earnings. That makes a lot of sense to me... which means it'll never happen.
Even better: not only must you have received an undergrad degree, but you also may have transferred a maximum of once in order to get a 5th year of eligibility.
 
Will this ever end? We were told THIS 2024-2025 was last year of these type guys … yet now we learn it goes on. And Juco will allow it forever.
This last season we went from around a thousand players (the entire class) able to use a fifth "free" year, down to maybe a few hundred from the same group able to use that sixth COVID year for the coming season after a redshirt season. Next season COVID pretty much goes off the books, and I'd put the number at a few handfuls that are able to stay eligible beyond a fifth year, which is pretty much what we had before COVID.

I just don't foresee JuCo making that much difference because there's no money in it. There will be a few late bloomers who get lucky, but that's about it.
 
There's also a non-zero chance that the NCAA universally grants a 5th year of eligibility to everyone, so all of our handwringing about the super-seniors may continue in perpetuity. It's worth noting that in this year's tournament, most top teams had significant contributions from COVID year guys.

Of the Final 4 teams, every team including Duke (James) had one or more 5th year seniors play at least 50% of available minutes – Florida (Alijah Martin), Houston (Cryer, Roberts), Auburn (Broome, Cardwell, Baker-Mazara). Only Baker-Mazara went to JuCo.

Of the Elite 8 teams: Alabama (Sears, Omoruyi, Nelson), Tennessee (Lanier), Texas Tech (McMillian), Michigan St (None).

Of the S16 teams: Ole Miss (Murrell, Dre Davis, Brakefield), Arkansas (Johnell Davis), Michigan (Goldin), Purdue (None), Kentucky (Brea, Carr, Williams, Butler), BYU (Knell, Mag), Maryland (None), Arizona (Love, Townsend)

All of this to say...the average age of a S16 player increased from 20.8 years old in 2019 to 21.6 years old in 2025. An increase of almost 1 year. which tracks perfectly with the extra COVID year. I will be surprised if this number is above 21 next year, but not shocked.

Just FYI, but this list is missing a few folks.

Maryland had Selton Miguel as a 5th-year guy who played in the COVID year. Auburn also had Chaney Johnson, who played 3 years (beginning with the COVID year) at a D-2 school before playing his 4th and 5th years at Auburn. Johnson could potentially even be eligible for another year pending the NCAA's decision about whether D2 years count. Michigan also had Nimari Burnett (who has another year of eligibility still) and Rubin Jones. Alabama also had Chris Youngblood (side note: they also had Latrell Wrightsell going into the season before he got hurt; will be interesting to see where he goes next year). Kentucky also had Jaxson Robinson (side note: they also had Kerr Kriisa, but he got hurt early and might be eligible again next year).

And some guys who didn't quite make the 20 mpg threshold but were still regulars (in the 15-20 mpg range) would be Mylik Wilson for Houston; Texas Tech had Kerwin Walton and Federiko Federiko (a JuCo COVID-year guy) (side note: they also had Devan Cambridge who got hurt early and might come back). BYU had Dawson Baker.
 
Even better: not only must you have received an undergrad degree, but you also may have transferred a maximum of once in order to get a 5th year of eligibility.
Love it. I get that the old system was too restrictive. But we have swung too far in the direction of free agency. Let's have more of an incentive to stay put. I was initially going to say you have not transferred at all, but that is not realistic.

Here's an idea (which no one will like) - on your roster, you can only have a total of X transfers among your team. So they have to be rationed. Obviously this will absolutely never happen and I think many people are not as bothered by the constant transferring as I am. But I am trying to get creative as I don't think the non-stop transferring is good for the sport.
 
This last season we went from around a thousand players (the entire class) able to use a fifth "free" year, down to maybe a few hundred from the same group able to use that sixth COVID year for the coming season after a redshirt season. Next season COVID pretty much goes off the books, and I'd put the number at a few handfuls that are able to stay eligible beyond a fifth year, which is pretty much what we had before COVID.

I just don't foresee JuCo making that much difference because there's no money in it. There will be a few late bloomers who get lucky, but that's about it.

I suspect it will be more than "a few late bloomers." And I don't see it as a case of good players choosing to go to JuCo. But I do think we'll see an impact of 5th- and 6th-year guys coming up from the JuCo ranks and making an impact. I don't expect the Sweet-16 to be littered with former JuCo guys, but I suspect that in the coming years we'll see a handful of JuCo 5th/6th-year guys in each Sweet-16. Much like we see 4th/5th-year guys who started their careers at low-major programs. High school recruiting isn't a perfect system, and some guys slip through the cracks and/or develop late.
 
Just FYI, but this list is missing a few folks.

Maryland had Selton Miguel as a 5th-year guy who played in the COVID year. Auburn also had Chaney Johnson, who played 3 years (beginning with the COVID year) at a D-2 school before playing his 4th and 5th years at Auburn. Johnson could potentially even be eligible for another year pending the NCAA's decision about whether D2 years count. Michigan also had Nimari Burnett (who has another year of eligibility still) and Rubin Jones. Alabama also had Chris Youngblood (side note: they also had Latrell Wrightsell going into the season before he got hurt; will be interesting to see where he goes next year). Kentucky also had Jaxson Robinson (side note: they also had Kerr Kriisa, but he got hurt early and might be eligible again next year).

And some guys who didn't quite make the 20 mpg threshold but were still regulars (in the 15-20 mpg range) would be Mylik Wilson for Houston; Texas Tech had Kerwin Walton and Federiko Federiko (a JuCo COVID-year guy) (side note: they also had Devan Cambridge who got hurt early and might come back). BYU had Dawson Baker.

I used "played ~50% of available minutes" as a proxy cutoff for "meaningful contributor," purely to illustrate how dependent the top teams were on COVID-bonus-year talent. Many of the players you listed (I missed Selton Miguel from Maryland as Barttorvik inexplicably had him listed as a 5th year Junior...wtf!? And Chaney Johnson...well, OK) did not meet this arbitrary threshold, but including them merely reinforces the broader point.
 
I suspect it will be more than "a few late bloomers." And I don't see it as a case of good players choosing to go to JuCo. But I do think we'll see an impact of 5th- and 6th-year guys coming up from the JuCo ranks and making an impact. I don't expect the Sweet-16 to be littered with former JuCo guys, but I suspect that in the coming years we'll see a handful of JuCo 5th/6th-year guys in each Sweet-16. Much like we see 4th/5th-year guys who started their careers at low-major programs. High school recruiting isn't a perfect system, and some guys slip through the cracks and/or develop late.
OK. Neither of us is Nostradamus, and we'll truly find out in about three years (assuming 17 other variables haven't completely changed the landscape by then...again).
 
Love it. I get that the old system was too restrictive. But we have swung too far in the direction of free agency. Let's have more of an incentive to stay put. I was initially going to say you have not transferred at all, but that is not realistic.

Here's an idea (which no one will like) - on your roster, you can only have a total of X transfers among your team. So they have to be rationed. Obviously this will absolutely never happen and I think many people are not as bothered by the constant transferring as I am. But I am trying to get creative as I don't think the non-stop transferring is good for the sport.
I agree with you about the constant transferring. I don't understand why they don't go back to the rule where you can transfer but have to sit out the year. I could see if you are transferring because of a coaching change and then maybe in that case you can play at the new school immediately but I think it would cut down on the constant transferring if they went back to the old rule.
 
OK. Neither of us is Nostradamus, and we'll truly find out in about three years (assuming 17 other variables haven't completely changed the landscape by then...again).

Yeah, it's all speculation at this point. And also yes, we'll [potentially] have an idea in about 3 years or so. I was more just clarifying the way I'd envision the path, as I agree with you that I don't see any currently-coveted players choosing to go the JuCo path just to be available as 23 and 24 year olds. It would be the guys like Mo Diarra who weren't on the radar out of high school but then by the time they are 23 are suddenly interesting players with experience and physical maturity. Only now instead of those guys running out of eligibility before they get to ages 23 and 24 (or 25), they'll have those extra years available.

Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't. But that's the way I would see it happening.
 
I agree with you about the constant transferring. I don't understand why they don't go back to the rule where you can transfer but have to sit out the year. I could see if you are transferring because of a coaching change and then maybe in that case you can play at the new school immediately but I think it would cut down on the constant transferring if they went back to the old rule.
The NCAA doesn't go back because the minute it does so it will be in court, facing an antitrust challenge.
 
The NCAA doesn't go back because the minute it does so it will be in court, facing an antitrust challenge.
For good reason in my opinion. Any student can transfer for any reason and not have to skip classes for a year. I get that the old system might be more fun for people to watch, but we are still talking about kids with their own lives and interests.
 
I agree with you about the constant transferring. I don't understand why they don't go back to the rule where you can transfer but have to sit out the year. I could see if you are transferring because of a coaching change and then maybe in that case you can play at the new school immediately but I think it would cut down on the constant transferring if they went back to the old rule.
For many years football, men's basketball, and I think maybe baseball were the only ones with this rule. Everyone else got one free one and after that you had to sit a year. That won't happen either because somehow the NCAA is the only sports entity not allowed to set rules for eligibility, but a one time transfer would seem to be the best way to balance player freedom/choice with maintaining some sort of roster continuity and protecting their educational interests.
 
Calipari gets his first two additions of the offseason from the portal. FSU forward Malique Ewin and South Carolina forward Nick Pringle both commit to the Hogs today. With the returners (DJ Wagner, Billy Richmond, Karter Knox) and incoming recruits (Meleek Thomas, Darius Acuff) Arkansas should be in good shape in the backcourt and on the wing. The Hogs could use some depth, but Ewin and Pringle should go a long way towards shoring up the frontcourt.

Lamar Wilkerson, the big guard from Sam Houston State that got some love earlier in this thread, has committed to Indiana.
 
The competition in those six games leaves something to be desired. Only high major opponent was Iowa, where he went 3-10 (1-6) for 9 points in a loss. He did score 15ppg in 23-24, though, and the three point shooting seems consistent.

Yeah, I just watched a bunch of highlights. 6'6, 205 lbs, 7'0 wingspan. He's a great FT shooter, good low-volume 3-pt percentages. Ball handling may be a bit shaky? Looks maybe closer in style to Gillis than James. But potentially a huge upside guy. Late bloomer as he played D3 out of HS. He could be an absolute menace on the defensive end with that wingspan.
 
Interesting one to watch [Cedric Coward]. Only played 6 games due to injury but those are some big numbers.

Coward is an interesting case: a former D-3 player who transferred up to the Big Sky conference, then bumped up to the WCC this past year.

Just looking at some 2022 and 2023 JuCo guys who could/should play significant minutes for P5 programs next year:
Kasean Pryor
Chad Baker-Mazara (he's a unique case of course)
Jason Edwards
Day Day Thomas
Yaxel Lendeborg
Marcus Hill
Jimmy Bell
Tre'Von Spillers
J'Vonne Hadley
Federiko Federiko
David Coit
BJ Freeman
Elijah Malone
Jadrian Tracey
Rashaun Agee
Ben Humrichous
Nick Pringle
Michael Ajayi
Tyon Grant-Foster
Javohn Garcia
Sincere Parker
Da'Sean Nelson
Damarco Minor
Jacob Crews
Lamar Wilkerson
Oscar Cluff
Kam Woods
Obi Agbim
Quimari Peterson
Marquel Sutton
Jacari White
Chase Forte
Doctor Bradley (not making this name up, I promise!)
TJ Simpkins
Nate Kingz
 
Coward is an interesting case: a former D-3 player who transferred up to the Big Sky conference, then bumped up to the WCC this past year.

Just looking at some 2022 and 2023 JuCo guys who could/should play significant minutes for P5 programs next year:
Kasean Pryor
Chad Baker-Mazara (he's a unique case of course)
Jason Edwards
Day Day Thomas
Yaxel Lendeborg
Marcus Hill
Jimmy Bell
Tre'Von Spillers
J'Vonne Hadley
Federiko Federiko
David Coit
BJ Freeman
Elijah Malone
Jadrian Tracey
Rashaun Agee
Ben Humrichous
Nick Pringle
Michael Ajayi
Tyon Grant-Foster
Javohn Garcia
Sincere Parker
Da'Sean Nelson
Damarco Minor
Jacob Crews
Lamar Wilkerson
Oscar Cluff
Kam Woods
Obi Agbim
Quimari Peterson
Marquel Sutton
Jacari White
Chase Forte
Doctor Bradley (not making this name up, I promise!)
TJ Simpkins
Nate Kingz
 
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