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The debate went about how I expected: Walz struggled (debate is not his forte), Vance was more polished. Vance was clearly winning (not...

I also expect Walz to struggle. I don’t think it matters a ton (because it is the Veep debate), but unlike the top of the ticket I...

Yep, I came down here for the schooling, and then never left! In between bands of the storm right now. No wind, minimal rain. I...

I can confirm. The rains have definitely arrived in the Triangle, and there was a little wind (and a tornado warning). But so far so good.

Yep. It steered to the East of Atlanta, which means Atlanta got only the trailing winds. Eastern GA appears to have gotten it worse...

Yeah, the issue with Silver is less about how his model did in 2016 and more about how he publicly portrayed his model in 2008 and 2012...

Essentially, it's the "betting markets" model. I'm skeptical. But at this point I have to be agnostic as to its viability.

The hypocrisy is that he was more than willing to let folks misunderstand when it made him money, and only happy to correct them when...

He's taken more blame because he made more profit (and was more than happy to rub folks' noses in it along the way). That comes with...

I fully understand that he's doing this stuff to make money. The point that was being made in that article is that he's making money...

Oh I agree that Silver a few others are probably about as good as it gets when it comes to modeling all of the polling data. But "as...

I'm not conflating anything. I'm very aware of how probability works and pretty well aware of how Silver's model works. And just to be...

Exactly. Probabilistically, his model shouldn't have been as accurate as it was in 2012. The close contests should have had more...

No, he de facto did claim it. Because he certainly didn't correct folks in 2012, when everyone was saying his model "got everything...

But this is the thing: you can't say the first paragraph and then say the second part. It's all probabilities. Either he was "right"...