I went and voted today. Stood in line for about 30 minutes, then did my duty. Not that it will matter in my area. Trump will carry my county with about 75% of the vote.
I’ve maintained that I think Harris’s only real path to victory is to win the three Blue Wall states up north and Nevada. I think that gets her right to 270. I hold out little hope that she’s going to win Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina. Never say never, but I’m just not feeling that at all.
At this point, I’m really wishing she had made a different choice for her running mate. I still believe Shapiro would’ve delivered her Pennsylvania, and given us all a much better chance at avoiding a second Trump term.
P.S. Everything I’m hearing from most media outlets, including liberal-leaning ones, is that this is Trump’s race to lose. It certainly feels that way from where I’m sitting.
The early vote data in Michigan, Wisconsin, NC, and GA seems to be favorable for Harris (way more women voting than usual). PA is harder to read. I don't pay attention to news outlets, but they don't really have any idea whose race it is to win or lose. I also doubt they are saying it's Trump's race to lose, as the only data we have on the topic is the modelers, who all call it a coin flip.
There is definitely danger in reading too much into either the polls or the early vote data. But the folks analyzing the polls say it is a coin flip and the folks who analyze the early data in the South and rust belt seem to think things are favorable for Harris. Even PredictIt (for what little that is worth) has returned to a 50/50 race. It's basically just Musk's Twitter and the compromised PolyMarket that favor Trump (and even PolyMarket appears to be taking a hard turn back towards Harris at the moment).
If I had to guess, I would guess that Harris wins the rust belt states plus one or both of GA/NC. AZ probably goes to Trump and NV will likely be really close.