2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election


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I went and voted today. Stood in line for about 30 minutes, then did my duty. Not that it will matter in my area. Trump will carry my county with about 75% of the vote.

I’ve maintained that I think Harris’s only real path to victory is to win the three Blue Wall states up north and Nevada. I think that gets her right to 270. I hold out little hope that she’s going to win Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina. Never say never, but I’m just not feeling that at all.

At this point, I’m really wishing she had made a different choice for her running mate. I still believe Shapiro would’ve delivered her Pennsylvania, and given us all a much better chance at avoiding a second Trump term.

P.S. Everything I’m hearing from most media outlets, including liberal-leaning ones, is that this is Trump’s race to lose. It certainly feels that way from where I’m sitting.

The early vote data in Michigan, Wisconsin, NC, and GA seems to be favorable for Harris (way more women voting than usual). PA is harder to read. I don't pay attention to news outlets, but they don't really have any idea whose race it is to win or lose. I also doubt they are saying it's Trump's race to lose, as the only data we have on the topic is the modelers, who all call it a coin flip.

There is definitely danger in reading too much into either the polls or the early vote data. But the folks analyzing the polls say it is a coin flip and the folks who analyze the early data in the South and rust belt seem to think things are favorable for Harris. Even PredictIt (for what little that is worth) has returned to a 50/50 race. It's basically just Musk's Twitter and the compromised PolyMarket that favor Trump (and even PolyMarket appears to be taking a hard turn back towards Harris at the moment).

If I had to guess, I would guess that Harris wins the rust belt states plus one or both of GA/NC. AZ probably goes to Trump and NV will likely be really close.
 
I went and voted today. Stood in line for about 30 minutes, then did my duty. Not that it will matter in my area. Trump will carry my county with about 75% of the vote.

I’ve maintained that I think Harris’s only real path to victory is to win the three Blue Wall states up north and Nevada. I think that gets her right to 270. I hold out little hope that she’s going to win Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina. Never say never, but I’m just not feeling that at all.

At this point, I’m really wishing she had made a different choice for her running mate. I still believe Shapiro would’ve delivered her Pennsylvania, and given us all a much better chance at avoiding a second Trump term.

P.S. Everything I’m hearing from most media outlets, including liberal-leaning ones, is that this is Trump’s race to lose. It certainly feels that way from where I’m sitting.
I am REALLY going to enjoy talking with you on November 6!

And eating my pie. 😋 🥧
 
I don't think this has been reported here, but this thread moves fast. Early vote in PA:



Most importantly:


Donald Trump Gets Bad News From Two Early Voting Trends in Pennsylvania

What changed? Dobbs says it all.
Dobbs says a lot but I'm going to post two maps to try to show visually a point I have tried to make before.

The first is the age adjusted death rates by county in Pennsylvania from 2018 - 2022 https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copa...thprofiles/documents/current/maps-deaths.html

And the second is how the counties voted in Pennsylvania in 2020 - https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/pennsylvania/

Larger margins of Trump support are associated with higher death rates. Trump isn't doing as well with those over 65 compared to 2020 because more of his supporters have died. Is it enough to keep PA blue? I'm guessing yes.
 
Nate is insufferable but in no way should Harris winning be a dent in his prediction armor. Like everyone else he is saying the election is pretty much a toss up. Saying Trump is 55% to win does NOT mean “Trump will win.”
My finding Nate insufferable has less to do with his predictions and more to do with his commentary. He’s become kind what he railed against in ‘16, IMO.

I think he’s at risk of having his work manipulated by “red wave” of GOP commissioned polls, but so are all the aggregators. He doesn’t seem to want to hear that. Or care. One of the two.
 
Dobbs says a lot but I'm going to post two maps to try to show visually a point I have tried to make before.

The first is the age adjusted death rates by county in Pennsylvania from 2018 - 2022 https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copa...thprofiles/documents/current/maps-deaths.html

And the second is how the counties voted in Pennsylvania in 2020 - https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/pennsylvania/

Larger margins of Trump support are associated with higher death rates. Trump isn't doing as well with those over 65 compared to 2020 because more of his supporters have died. Is it enough to keep PA blue? I'm guessing yes.

Big Macs and Covid. Bad combo.
 
As I listen to all this discourse about Liz Cheney it crossed my mind that the comments Trump made about her were all calculated to take the narrative away from the “like it or not” protection of women comments that he made yesterday. If so it obviously worked. He is definitely staying in the news.
 
As I listen to all this discourse about Liz Cheney it crossed my mind that the comments Trump made about her were all calculated to take the narrative away from the “like it or not” protection of women comments that he made yesterday. If so it obviously worked. He is definitely staying in the news.

I not sure speculating about violence towards a woman really takes the attention away in the intended manner, but maybe.
 
I don’t think you are correct. The Act is full of “shall” and provides a method for judicial review.

I am not saying Title 3 is now impervious to cynical attempts to circumvent it, but it was specifically (and quietly) adopted in response to Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election, so my presumption is that it was well thought out and intended to thwart use the same playbook.

I got into the weeds in 2020 and the prior act was definitely susceptible to attack.

So if someone is digging into the details of a repeat attempt, I think they will need to address the details in Title 3.
I will never underestimate the capacity of Trump campaign-financed attorneys to create specious, fantastical, and occasionally just clever enough for someone like Aileen Cannon or Sam Alito to grab onto legal arguments, regardless of how tight legislation might be written. In any event, I'm mostly going off someone else's analysis and conjecture about possible strategy, so can't really speak in more detail on interpretation of this particular statute. I think the idea is it doesn't matter what the new Electoral Count Act says, it can't necessarily prevent Congress from moving forward. Didn't go back and re-read, but here's a link: https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/little-secret-trump-johnson-election/
 
Bostondevil, this one's for you. The co-chair of the Trump-Vance transition team (Howard Lutnick) says RFKJr told him re vaccines:

"‘If you give me the data, all I want is the data, and I’ll take on the data and show that it’s not safe.’ And then if you pull the product liability (protections), the companies will yank these vaccines right off, off of the market." And then Lutnick said “Let’s give him the data. I think it’ll be pretty cool to give him the data. Let’s see what he comes up with. I think it’s pretty fun.”


Death and disease are so much fun.
 
I could probably look this up, but do states "count" the early votes when they come in or do they have to wait until election day.
To clarify this further, PA does not allow "counting" mail in ballots until election day but is this also true of early walk-in voting?
 
I could probably look this up, but do states "count" the early votes when they come in or do they have to wait until election day.
To clarify this further, PA does not allow "counting" mail in ballots until election day but is this also true of early walk-in voting?
PA doesn’t have early walk-in voting. Just mail.

There are several states that aren’t allowed to count votes until polls close on Election Day. But not all do it that way.
 
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Sigh.

They can already get access to the data. Understanding what to do with it next - beyond their area of expertise. Listening to the people who have the expertise? Ah, there's the rub.
There are a lot of data out there. They just don’t like what it says. Lutnick was acting as though nobody has ever studied the relation between vaccines and autism, or that Kennedy just wants to see the data, as though it is being hidden. It was a big smoke screen. The data are publicly available. That’s because science values transparency. There are many big studies.
 
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I could probably look this up, but do states "count" the early votes when they come in or do they have to wait until election day.
To clarify this further, PA does not allow "counting" mail in ballots until election day but is this also true of early walk-in voting?
This is one area where FL is the gold standard. Ballots are processed as soon as they are received and counted as soon as the county has completed publicly testing equipment. Early voting stops two day ahead of the election so it gives them time to have the results ready. They just hold releasing the figures until election day.
 
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