2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

[JasonEvans]

After a long discussion, the mods are prepared to reopen the political discussion. We are starting a new thread as the decision has been made to nuke the old thread from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

Here are the new rules.

PLEASE READ BEFORE POSTING!

1. DO NOT ATTACK OTHER POSTERS PERSONALLY. Treat everyone with respect, even if you disagree with their views. When in doubt, leave it out. If you don't think you are up to the task of posting dispassionately and without attacking others, then do not post.

2. LEAVE THE VINEGAR OUT. Posts need to be as objective and dispassionate as possible in order to avoid the thread spiraling down. Do not pour gasoline on the fire. All posts should be analytical, not opinion. If you post personal opinions, especially something that is highly critical or disparaging of one side or the other, you are going to find yourself on a break from the DBR.

3. INFRACTIONS WILL HAVE HIGHER CONSEQUENCES. We promise that no Mod likes to give infractions, especially to posters who contribute positively to the core mission of DBR – Duke sports. But we have to here, and the penalties will be more than usual. All infractions will carry double the usual number of points and it if pretty likely that even a mild infraction will put you on a one-week break from posting to the DBR. The best way to avoid a problem is self-moderation and self-censoring what you post. If you are really unsure about a post, feel free to PM Jason or OPK for their advance approval.

4. REPORT QUESTIONABLE POSTS INSTEAD OF RESPONDING TO THEM. Once the thread gets several pages down the road with nasty bits back and forth, it is easier to just lock the thread than to try to triage and edit in real time. Even if the reported post is not deleted or the poster penalized, it at least alerts us that something may be going sideways.

5. TAKE A BREAK IF NEEDED. The “ignore poster” feature works well. And no one on this thread is going to change another poster’s mind about who to vote for at this point anyway. So there is no need to respond to every perceived slight or difference of opinion. Just let them be wrong and let it go.

6. ONLY CERTAIN POSTERS ARE ALLOWED. As a reminder, this thread is restricted to posters who have a long history on the DBR. Newbies need not apply. If you do not have at least 500 previous posts to the non-political parts of the DBR, you are not allowed to post here. Anything you post will immediately be deleted and you will get a serious infraction. The friendship and respect that longtime posters has earned is the commodity that allows them to post here.

We have one of the best communities of our kind here at DBR. Let’s finish this strong.

Thanks, the Moderating Team

 

[acdevil]

Is this heaven?

 

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Is this heaven?

No, it's a swing state.

Voted yesterday morning. Waited in line for two people to find voting areas. Hoping that the logistics and process go smoothly across our country.

Saw a cohort out and about while wearing my sticker. He asked if I had voted, I said yes. He said "who for?" and I asked "do you really want to know?" He said "yeah, I'm curious." We sussed out that we voted in opposite directions. But then we congratulated each other for setting a priority to vote, shook hands, and went our opposite directions.

I hope that everyone's voting experience goes that smoothly, but somehow I doubt it.

Buckle up everyone, we're in the end game now.

 

[acdevil]

Polling paradox: what actually shapes the numbers?

Likely voters, past voters, demographics and more – how pollsters weight 2024 election poll data matters a great deal.

goodauthority.org

This is an interesting article that shows how much a poll can change by making some reasonable assumptions on what the “proper” weighting should be. (Ignore the fact that all of them show Harris in the lead, the key is the swing).

TLDR - Different reasonable assumptions about the weighting in the article show swings of up to 8% while using the same underlying survey.

 

[JasonEvans]

Saw a cohort out and about while wearing my sticker. He asked if I had voted, I said yes. He said "who for?" and I asked "do you really want to know?" He said "yeah, I'm curious." We sussed out that we voted in opposite directions. But then we congratulated each other for setting a priority to vote, shook hands, and went our opposite directions.

Funny, I ran into a friend who is really, really not political over the weekend. He generally votes Republican but said he was torn this election. He then said that while he was waiting in line to vote and was genuinely unsure what to do, he realized that he would not be able to tell any of his friends if he voted for one candidate as he would be ashamed of how they would feel about his decision. He said that was when he decided to vote for the other candidate because "anyone I would be ashamed to vote for is not worth voting for."

I found that to be an interesting decision process.

 

[bird]

No, it's a swing state.

Voted yesterday morning. Waited in line for two people to find voting areas. Hoping that the logistics and process go smoothly across our country.

Saw a cohort out and about while wearing my sticker. He asked if I had voted, I said yes. He said "who for?" and I asked "do you really want to know?" He said "yeah, I'm curious." We sussed out that we voted in opposite directions. But then we congratulated each other for setting a priority to vote, shook hands, and went our opposite directions.

I hope that everyone's voting experience goes that smoothly, but somehow I doubt it.

Buckle up everyone, we're in the end game now.

I have been a party poll observer this year at several early voting locations in Virginia and the early vote here looks to approach 40 percent of the total, taking a lot of pressure off of Election Day voting. I predict a smooth Election Day in Virginia.

 

[acdevil]

No, it's a swing state.

Voted yesterday morning. Waited in line for two people to find voting areas. Hoping that the logistics and process go smoothly across our country.

Saw a cohort out and about while wearing my sticker. He asked if I had voted, I said yes. He said "who for?" and I asked "do you really want to know?" He said "yeah, I'm curious." We sussed out that we voted in opposite directions. But then we congratulated each other for setting a priority to vote, shook hands, and went our opposite directions.

I hope that everyone's voting experience goes that smoothly, but somehow I doubt it.

Buckle up everyone, we're in the end game now.

I voted on Saturday, but it wasn’t particular smooth. In NY, you can go to any early voting polling location in your county. When you get there, you give them name, address, sign the “book” etc. Their records show what town and district you live in and they print out a ballot.

All was going smoothly for me - except for the 15 minute wait. I let a very elderly couple cut the line in front of me.

On my turn I go through the process, everything checks out and the workers hit print and start checking in the next person. I stare at the printer for what feels like an eternity and nothing happens. They check the iPad records again and I’m recorded as having received a ballot. Same thing happens to the person behind me. They stop sending anyone to our line and call for the tech support guy. A few minutes later, a guy who could easily be an extra from Cocoon walks over and stares at the printer as well. He fiddles with all of the wires, looks at the display screens, and talks with the poll workers.

Anyone who has ever dealt with tech support knows what to do next. They unplug the machine and plug it back in. The ballots print out.

 

[FosterCoachK82]

Polling paradox: what actually shapes the numbers?

Likely voters, past voters, demographics and more – how pollsters weight 2024 election poll data matters a great deal.

goodauthority.org

This is an interesting article that shows how much a poll can change by making some reasonable assumptions on what the “proper” weighting should be. (Ignore the fact that all of them show Harris in the lead, the key is the swing).

TLDR - Different reasonable assumptions about the weighting in the article show swings of up to 8% while using the same underlying survey.

That’s a great explanation of poll weightings. Thanks!

 

[AGDukesky]

While this thread took a vacation, I also took one to Montreal. There were literally no yard signs there for either candidate - it was a pleasant trip…

 

[bird]

I have been a party poll observer this year at several early voting locations in Virginia and the early vote here looks to approach 40 percent of the total, taking a lot of pressure off of Election Day voting. I predict a smooth Election Day in Virginia.

Per this Washington Post article, Virginia is at 35 percent of 2020 vote total, and the US is at 30 percent of the US total, in early voting.

https://wapo.st/3YrI9W9

 

[-jk]

I voted in person yesterday just outside DC. Very smooth process. It took me a total of about 10 minutes from parking to driving away.

The only hiccup was when the person at the first desk directed me towards the "green balloon". I'm color blind. Fortunately, it was the only balloon.

-jk

 

[budwom]

Vermont sends every voter a ballot in the mail, they can mail it in or put it in a drop box at Town Hall or they can vote on election day. So easy. A third of voters have voted already.
very very few political signs around, and while Bernie is running for re-election to the Senate, I have yet to see a single Bernie sign...he's probably spending ten bucks on the campaign.

 

[bundabergdevil]

My PA ballots are on The way. Plan on dropping them off this weekend.

The signs are everywhere here in SEPA, that’s for sure.

 

[mkirsh]

This is probably as reliable as the polling at this point: the Commanders home win portends victory for the incumbent party

Why the Washington Commanders’ ‘Hail Mary’ win could put Kamala Harris in the White House

The Washington Commanders’ last-minute Hail Mary victory over the Chicago Bears on Sunday dictates that Kamala Harris will win the presidential election, according to superstition.

www.yahoo.com

 

[bundabergdevil]

This is probably as reliable as the polling at this point: the Commanders home win portends victory for the incumbent party

Why the Washington Commanders’ ‘Hail Mary’ win could put Kamala Harris in the White House

The Washington Commanders’ last-minute Hail Mary victory over the Chicago Bears on Sunday dictates that Kamala Harris will win the presidential election, according to superstition.

www.yahoo.com

If that’s and it follows the game we’re in for a doozy down to the wire.

 

[budwom]

just fast forwarding thru ads when I watch sports on my DVR makes me feel for you guys in battleground states....you can't possibly watch live TV, can you?

 

[MChambers]

Vermont sends every voter a ballot in the mail, they can mail it in or put it in a drop box at Town Hall or they can vote on election day. So easy. A third of voters have voted already.
very very few political signs around, and while Bernie is running for re-election to the Senate, I have yet to see a single Bernie sign...he's probably spending ten bucks on the campaign.

DC is the same, essentially.

 

[PackMan97]

.

just fast forwarding thru ads when I watch sports on my DVR makes me feel for you guys in battleground states....you can't possibly watch live TV, can you?

No, what's worse is if you have kids they can't possibly watch TV. Streaming services used to be a safe haven, but in many cases their ads are even worse than live TV.

My boys have become obsessed with signontology. They get really upset when signs go "missing", especially close to home. Thankfully all the signers out our way have either given up putting out more signs, run out of signs or killed each other....because there are no more signs being put out.

We early voted last Wednesday in Wake County. There was no line and everything went smoothly.

 

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Just early voted here in NYC. My early voting location is at a HS across the street from my son's elementary school, so I did school drop-off, went across the street and voted. Fifteen second wait to get in, then 30 second line to sign in. We were mailed "speed passes" that they could scan to make things easier. I apparently was one of the few people who remembered to bring it so the poll worker was grateful.

There seemed to be more people working than usual (including a guy whose sole purpose was to hand out "I voted" stickers which is not the best use of my tax dollars, but that is the least of my problems right now). There was a consistent flow of people so all of the steps of the process were filled but there was really no wait - ideal situation.

I am a very engaged voter but had not even focused on the fact that NY has a senate seat to vote on (Gillibrand is heavily favored and has been doing a little bit of advertising). We had a few ballot initiatives that I actually did some research on so that was the hardest part.

We are not a battleground state but are still getting a lot of Trump/Harris ads, as well as quite a few for various local house races, primarily the Hudson Valley, Long Island, and Tom Kean Jr.'s seat in NJ. My 10 year old is horrified by how amateurish some of them are, and usually asks whether we like the person or not, though he has been able to increasingly make that decision on his own based on the content and tone of the ad.

 

[Rich]

The title of this "New Thread for the Final Week" is way overly optimistic IMO. Yes, the final week before Election Day, but the winner won't be declared for days, weeks, maybe months I fear.