2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election


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I'm curious, BD, is it because you think Trump did not promise that to him, will renege on the promise, or some other reason? Or is it just because you don't think Trump will win?

I think Trump promised RFK Jr. something but I don't think it was concrete. I don't actually want to make a pie bet because I don't want to deal with the hassle if I lose. I'm not against the bet, I just don't want to take the trouble of sending someone a pie.

So, what I would bet against if I felt like making a pie bet. If Trump wins (if he loses, the bet is moot), RFK Jr. will not be a member of the cabinet nor will he be named head of an agency whose primary purpose is public health or healthcare (NIH, CDC).
 
I don't think this has been reported here, but this thread moves fast. Early vote in PA:

Registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans, Politico reported on Thursday...Trump won more support from the over-65s in both the 2020 and 2016 elections nationally. The former president got around 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania at the 2020 election while still losing the state to Joe Biden...Politico also reported on Tuesday that women are outpacing men in early voting in another potential warning sign for Trump...There is at least a 10-point gap in favor women in the early vote in the Pennsylvania

Most importantly:
Women registered as Democrats in Pennsylvania also make up nearly a third of early votes from people who did not vote in the 2020 election.

Donald Trump Gets Bad News From Two Early Voting Trends in Pennsylvania

What changed? Dobbs says it all.
 
He did mention the Electoral Count Reform Act, mainly in noting that its primary applicability here would be to fast track judicial proceedings. I don't recall, but don't think it attached any criminal liability for just basic shenanigans, like a governor baselessly claiming massive election fraud and refusing to sign a certificate of ascertainment. That's all it could take to prevent electors from being properly appointed by a state, I think. They can't just show up in Washington and cast Electoral Votes if they haven't been formally named by their state's governor.
I don’t think you are correct. The Act is full of “shall” and provides a method for judicial review.

I am not saying Title 3 is now impervious to cynical attempts to circumvent it, but it was specifically (and quietly) adopted in response to Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election, so my presumption is that it was well thought out and intended to thwart use the same playbook.

I got into the weeds in 2020 and the prior act was definitely susceptible to attack.

So if someone is digging into the details of a repeat attempt, I think they will need to address the details in Title 3.
 
It seemed like the people who had the most influence on Trump in his last term were not cabinet members but others. So similarly, Kennedy doesn't need a cabinet position to get power. That being said, there is a part of me that thinks Trump is using Kennedy to win the votes of Kennedy's supporters then once Trump is in office he will forget about him. And I think this is the thinking of at least some others who think that Kennedy is wacko but they otherwise support Trump.
Because he quickly running out of people that were able to get Senate approval. That's why in his last year he was surrounded by "acting" officers.
 
If you are like me and think the winner of this election absolutely has to win PA then this could be a favorable trend for Dems.

What the early voting data shows about new voters

The money line - "The data out of Pennsylvania shows large differences in the number of votes cast by new voters, both by party registration and by gender. More new voters are registered Democrats than Republicans, and new female voters are driving this partisan gap. The new male voters are only slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, but among new female voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1."
 
The polling error in Harris's favor may not be such a stretch after all. There's a Politico article talking about the "Shy Harris Voter" women who either favor Nikki Haley or voted for Trump in 16 and 20 who are now going Harris this go around, but their affects are not factored into the polls. And then you have this, basically polling PTSD from the past 2 presidential elections where they are basically ignoring any results that are "too blue"
 
If Harris wins, will this be the end for guru Nate Silver?



More importantly, will this be enough to sway the election to Harris? (people wishing to hear no more from him 😜)

Nate Silver: ‘Cheating’ Pollsters Are Putting ‘Finger on the Scale’
He was “more” right in 2016 than anyone else. What’s his hypothesis now? I’ve heard that polling groups with bias are flooding the market on both sides, though more on the R side. The current state of affairs or polling does not seem unreasonable given recent history.

Nationals favoring Dems but close races in critical EC states could swing the election either way.
 
Nate is insufferable but in no way should Harris winning be a dent in his prediction armor. Like everyone else he is saying the election is pretty much a toss up. Saying Trump is 55% to win does NOT mean “Trump will win.”
 
Nate's become pretty insufferable on Twitter. I for one wouldn't mind if the spotlight turned from him beginning next week.

I do wonder if it is the end of polling. I don't think anyone believes it anymore.

Yeah, I think polling is just getting harder and harder these days. It is saying something that Silver (who is pretty bullish about relying on the polls) is saying the polls are not good this year.

Frankly, with the decreasing ease in getting poll responders in the cell phone age, it's increasingly difficult to get a meaningful and representative sample.

Combine that with folks now realizing the "importance" of the poll models from a narrative perspective, and you get pollsters trying to game the system.

Back in 2008 and 2012? It was reasonable to rely on the polls, because enough of the voting population was still accessible via traditional means and because the modelers hadn't become so mainstream yet. In a way, Silver's success in 2008 and 2012 helped pave the way for the decline in the quality of polls. Trumpism had a big hand too.
 
I went and voted today. Stood in line for about 30 minutes, then did my duty. Not that it will matter in my area. Trump will carry my county with about 75% of the vote.

I’ve maintained that I think Harris’s only real path to victory is to win the three Blue Wall states up north and Nevada. I think that gets her right to 270. I hold out little hope that she’s going to win Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina. Never say never, but I’m just not feeling that at all.

At this point, I’m really wishing she had made a different choice for her running mate. I still believe Shapiro would’ve delivered her Pennsylvania, and given us all a much better chance at avoiding a second Trump term.

P.S. Everything I’m hearing from most media outlets, including liberal-leaning ones, is that this is Trump’s race to lose. It certainly feels that way from where I’m sitting.
 
I’ve maintained that I think Harris’s only real path to victory is to win the three Blue Wall states up north and Nevada. I think that gets her right to 270.
That would get her to 276. She is pretty likely to take the 1 Nebraska vote from the Omaha congressional district making Nevada unnecessary to her if she takes the PA/MI/WI trio.
 
That would get her to 276. She is pretty likely to take the 1 Nebraska vote from the Omaha congressional district making Nevada unnecessary to her if she takes the PA/MI/WI trio.
Yep, my bad. The 3 up north plus the Nebraska district. And I’m glad because that might be all she gets. I’m not even certain Nevada will swing her way.
 
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