This is great, thanks! I'd also love a comprehensive video series with voiceover commentary and visualized x's and o's (similar to what we sometimes see during breaks in live broadcasts), that might be too much to ask for though...
Strategy Discussions: rotations, play calling, roster management, and more
- Thread starter scottdude8
- Start date
Indoor66
Well-known member
Call the opposing teams for a copy of their edited scouting video.
bluedevilwildcats
Member
I think there is a bit too much comfort being drawn from last night's win. Duke trailed for a large majority of the game. A similar performance against a top 25 team most likely would have been a loss. A road loss to a top 25 team is ok if you're a top 25 team. It's not ok if you're a top 5 team.
The data and eye test say the same thing - our offense is our achilles heel. As mentioned last week in this thread, our two best individual defenders are Brown and Cooper. Tyrese has the highest OBPR and is a very solid defender. Sion is relatively strong on both sides of the court, and Kon is also solid, with surprisingly acceptable defense and our best distributor. So a lineup of Brown, Cooper, Kon, Sion and Tyrese seems like it's our best. But it doesn't appear to be.
Looking at our best lineup combinations (2-man, 3-man, 4-man, 5-man), one name is conspicuously missing from every single lineup: Cooper. I think we saw why when he sat - our defense remained elite and our offense looked much smoother. And there are two names that are in every "best lineup" combination: Kon and Gillis. I mentioned Gillis upthread, the analytics really really like him.
It seems pretty clear the staff wants us shooting a lot of 3s. And frankly, it doesn't appear we have an offense to speak of so shooting 3s may be our best bet. In that case, how do we get to 30%+ of our possessions ending in a 3P shot efficiently? To me the answer is Gillis and Evans. Gillis because he is a proven sniper, and Evans because I think he's the only high-volume 3P shooter who can shoot 38%+ this year.
I don't see Kon as a high-volume, efficient 3P shooter. He's at 33% and if you remove the first 2 blowout games, he's at 27%. And I don't think that's a fluke. Senior year he made 39% of his 3s, about the same as Cooper. From the research I could find, there's about a 7% decrease in high school 3P% to college, which would put Kon at 32%. His FT% shooting is elite (including 85% his senior year), so I expect in the NBA he has sniper potential, but I don't think he'll realize that this year.
I'd like to see more of Evans and Gillis, see Kon be more selective on 3s, and the staff needs to figure out how to keep Cooper on the floor without killing our offensive spacing and flow.
The data and eye test say the same thing - our offense is our achilles heel. As mentioned last week in this thread, our two best individual defenders are Brown and Cooper. Tyrese has the highest OBPR and is a very solid defender. Sion is relatively strong on both sides of the court, and Kon is also solid, with surprisingly acceptable defense and our best distributor. So a lineup of Brown, Cooper, Kon, Sion and Tyrese seems like it's our best. But it doesn't appear to be.
Looking at our best lineup combinations (2-man, 3-man, 4-man, 5-man), one name is conspicuously missing from every single lineup: Cooper. I think we saw why when he sat - our defense remained elite and our offense looked much smoother. And there are two names that are in every "best lineup" combination: Kon and Gillis. I mentioned Gillis upthread, the analytics really really like him.
It seems pretty clear the staff wants us shooting a lot of 3s. And frankly, it doesn't appear we have an offense to speak of so shooting 3s may be our best bet. In that case, how do we get to 30%+ of our possessions ending in a 3P shot efficiently? To me the answer is Gillis and Evans. Gillis because he is a proven sniper, and Evans because I think he's the only high-volume 3P shooter who can shoot 38%+ this year.
I don't see Kon as a high-volume, efficient 3P shooter. He's at 33% and if you remove the first 2 blowout games, he's at 27%. And I don't think that's a fluke. Senior year he made 39% of his 3s, about the same as Cooper. From the research I could find, there's about a 7% decrease in high school 3P% to college, which would put Kon at 32%. His FT% shooting is elite (including 85% his senior year), so I expect in the NBA he has sniper potential, but I don't think he'll realize that this year.
I'd like to see more of Evans and Gillis, see Kon be more selective on 3s, and the staff needs to figure out how to keep Cooper on the floor without killing our offensive spacing and flow.
SkyBrickey
Member
We don't have an offense to speak of?
It's KenPom #12 in the country with three freshmen starters. It will naturally get better as these freshmen adjust to the college game and all of them adjust to playing together.
Exhibit A. Cooper had a turnover problem against Kentucky and Kansas. It hurt us. In 66 minutes against Auburn and Louisville, he had ZERO turnovers.
And tonight's performance? We covered the KenPom line and the Vegas line. Won by 11 in the toughest game we will play until Feb 8.
We don't have an offensive problem. We have an offense that Jon will continue to tweak and that should be top 10 or even top 5 by season's end.
It's KenPom #12 in the country with three freshmen starters. It will naturally get better as these freshmen adjust to the college game and all of them adjust to playing together.
Exhibit A. Cooper had a turnover problem against Kentucky and Kansas. It hurt us. In 66 minutes against Auburn and Louisville, he had ZERO turnovers.
And tonight's performance? We covered the KenPom line and the Vegas line. Won by 11 in the toughest game we will play until Feb 8.
We don't have an offensive problem. We have an offense that Jon will continue to tweak and that should be top 10 or even top 5 by season's end.
Take Cooper out of the lineup and we finish in the bottom of the ACC. The guy scores, plays defense and rebounds. All he needs to do is make more 3s.
GoDuke!
JGDUKE2008
Member
I think we need to go with this going forward
Starters:
Proctor
Sion
Kon
Flagg
Brown
Bench
1st: Foster
2nd: Maluach
3rd. Evans
4th. Gillis
Starters:
Proctor
Sion
Kon
Flagg
Brown
Bench
1st: Foster
2nd: Maluach
3rd. Evans
4th. Gillis
robed deity
Member
Take Cooper out of the lineup, and we...go on a big run to ice the game?
I get what you're saying, but it just seems weird after last night.
I agree but I'd be concerned about Maliq getting into foul trouble early and would not be available later in the 2nd half. He's our defensive closer.
GoDuke!
wilko
Member
If I had a complaint, its that we start games perhaps a bit too lethargic and the offense seems labored most of the time.
I think we are trying to play "outside-in" and use the 3 to loosen up the D to create driving angles for our cutters who for the most part are not take you off the dribble guys. Hitting 3's would make life A LOT easier if we can manage it on a given night.
I noticed when Coop went out for fouls v L'ville - we had flow and scoring came easier riding James/Brown as the primary action options.
Scion is a sculpted, solid brick of a human being and after most of his drives - he's on the floor from some contact.. Either Scions balance is horrible (possibly, but I doubt it) or its no wonder Proctor, Foster, Kon etc. don't drive more. They are getting pummeled on a nightly basis.
Brown is probably our best Defender since the Landlord... perhaps even goin back to Battier.
Dude is special.
I think we are trying to play "outside-in" and use the 3 to loosen up the D to create driving angles for our cutters who for the most part are not take you off the dribble guys. Hitting 3's would make life A LOT easier if we can manage it on a given night.
I noticed when Coop went out for fouls v L'ville - we had flow and scoring came easier riding James/Brown as the primary action options.
Scion is a sculpted, solid brick of a human being and after most of his drives - he's on the floor from some contact.. Either Scions balance is horrible (possibly, but I doubt it) or its no wonder Proctor, Foster, Kon etc. don't drive more. They are getting pummeled on a nightly basis.
Brown is probably our best Defender since the Landlord... perhaps even goin back to Battier.
Dude is special.
kshepinthehouse
Member
robed deity
Member
I'm not familiar with how Brown was seen by NBA scouts before this season, but I have to think they've taken notice. There's definitely a role for him as a defensive specialist, right?
kshepinthehouse
Member
Prob so. Gotta shoot that corner 3 though.
Mason Gillis hit a 3 and was in the 5 on the 18-2 run. First game that he looked good and was an asset. Maliq said he was the floor player-coach. Hope he can score more frequently and hit a high percentage like he did at Purdue.
bluedevilsenergy
Member
First post on this board! Have a lot of thoughts about Jon's coaching so far this year (both good and bad) but have had one thing playing on my mind especially today.
We need to find a way to get Maluach more involved on offense. Just getting the young man a few post touches a game would be big for his confidence and development. We should probably be starting Maliq at this point, and maybe matching ManMan up against a backup big would help him and us. I know his positioning on both ends is very raw still (not surprising given he's only been playing basketball for a few years). But I don't think the standard of opposing centers is so good that we should be completely ignoring him on the offensive end. He's showed good touch when he does get the ball, and a nice FT stroke for his size. Run some more lobs for him Jon! Let Maluach post up at least twice a game! Would give our offense a different dimension as well when we are looking stagnant like that first half yesterday.
We need to find a way to get Maluach more involved on offense. Just getting the young man a few post touches a game would be big for his confidence and development. We should probably be starting Maliq at this point, and maybe matching ManMan up against a backup big would help him and us. I know his positioning on both ends is very raw still (not surprising given he's only been playing basketball for a few years). But I don't think the standard of opposing centers is so good that we should be completely ignoring him on the offensive end. He's showed good touch when he does get the ball, and a nice FT stroke for his size. Run some more lobs for him Jon! Let Maluach post up at least twice a game! Would give our offense a different dimension as well when we are looking stagnant like that first half yesterday.
Last edited:
fidel
Member
This guy needs to get on the podcast. Also, its great to see what Jon is doing, and not just reading blind determinations that 'the offense isn't good'.
I think Man-Man has great hands. It would be nice to get him some touches around the basket. The offense we run now doesn't have that option. I'm hoping we see more passing and less dribbling going forward.
Keep posting.
GoDuke!
scottdude8
Moderator, front page and podcast contributor
I said all off-season that ManMan may be rare young big whose offense is ahead of his defense… and I think that has been borne out. The issue is his defense has been so far behind that it’s kept him off the floor in our most competitive games. Once the game slows down for him defensively, and he stays on the court long enough to get an offensive rhythm, we’ll unlock another level given the interior scoring he can provide.