Strategy Discussions: rotations, play calling, roster management, and more

[bluedevilsenergy]

I said all off-season that ManMan may be rare young big whose offense is ahead of his defense… and I think that has been borne out. The issue is his defense has been so far behind that it’s kept him off the floor in our most competitive games. Once the game slows down for him defensively, and he stays on the court long enough to get an offensive rhythm, we’ll unlock another level given the interior scoring he can provide.

It's definitely noticeable how his block-hunting is hurting us in the paint. Giving up too many easy buckets because he will overcommit on the driver and leave an opposing player wide open for a putback/ORB. Once ManMan realizes that his sheer length and presence is often enough to alter shots if he stays upright, he will be far more playable. Easier said than done! If I was that tall I'd want to spike every shot into row Z.

 

[SkyBrickey]

It's definitely noticeable how his block-hunting is hurting us in the paint. Giving up too many easy buckets because he will overcommit on the driver and leave an opposing player wide open for a putback/ORB. Once ManMan realizes that his sheer length and presence is often enough to alter shots if he stays upright, he will be far more playable. Easier said than done! If I was that tall I'd want to spike every shot into row Z.

Yes, his block hunting is hurting us some. But he is also forcing teams to alter all their interior shots when he's in. I haven't pulled the opposing team 2P% when Khaman is in the game but it has to be low.

The rebounding generally is a bigger issue. He's having trouble gaining and holding position against better teams. And Maliq rebounded the ball very well last night - along with Cooper.

On offense, anytime Khaman sets a screen - which is quite often - we are looking to lob him the ball on a roll. Caleb hit him on one last night. But for the most part other teams are focused on stopping it. On one Khaman screen last night for Kon, Sion's defender sagged in from the corner to help take away the lob - Kon made the right read and hit Sion in the corner for an open jumper.

Maybe we will start to see more cross screening (off ball) actions introduced to try and get our bigs more looks at the rim other than just screen and dive.

 

[dukelion]

Maybe we will start to see more cross screening (off ball) actions introduced to try and get our bigs more looks at the rim other than just screen and dive.

To me our greatest weakness on offense so far seems to be the lack of high percentage shots and getting our bigs some type of looks at the rim is absolutely essential for the offense to reach its potential.

Khaman and Maliq both have outrageous FG% this season (Maliq for the past 3 seasons) and while I'm not advocating for them to get traditional touches in the block, I would like to see them get touches of PNR action or other types of screens.

At present, Maliq averages just 2 FG attempts a game while Khaman averages 4. I think we need that number to double for the offense to improve its efficiency.

 

[SkyBrickey]

To me our greatest weakness on offense so far seems to be the lack of high percentage shots and getting our bigs some type of looks at the rim is absolutely essential for the offense to reach its potential.

Khaman and Maliq both have outrageous FG% this season (Maliq for the past 3 seasons) and while I'm not advocating for them to get traditional touches in the block, I would like to see them get touches of PNR action or other types of screens.

At present, Maliq averages just 2 FG attempts a game while Khaman averages 4. I think we need that number to double for the offense to improve its efficiency.

I don't disagree. I bet we see Jon add some new sets and actions designed to get easier looks at the rim for our bigs and our forwards. We might see some sets too with Cooper posting up. I doubt we will post up Brown or Maluach.

 

[Phredd3]

Yes, his block hunting is hurting us some. But he is also forcing teams to alter all their interior shots when he's in. I haven't pulled the opposing team 2P% when Khaman is in the game but it has to be low.

This is also why I like Khaman starting. He sets the tone on the inside that the paint is a scary place to be, and that gets in people's heads and seems to carry forward even after he's out of the game. Also, when we are playing a dominant opposing big, you can inevitably see them relax a bit when Mr. Huge steps off the floor. It really screws them up once they actually have to play against Maliq and his glitching hands, and it takes them a minute to realize that playing against Maliq is actually quite a bit tougher.

 

[bluedevilwildcats]

This is also why I like Khaman starting. He sets the tone on the inside that the paint is a scary place to be, and that gets in people's heads and seems to carry forward even after he's out of the game. Also, when we are playing a dominant opposing big, you can inevitably see them relax a bit when Mr. Huge steps off the floor. It really screws them up once they actually have to play against Maliq and his glitching hands, and it takes them a minute to realize that playing against Maliq is actually quite a bit tougher.

The stats are mixed on ManMan's impact. His block% and OR% are both good, but his DR% is poor and nearly all the advanced stats peg him as one of our worst defenders (which concurs with my eye test.) Maliq is significantly better than MM across the board, other than block% (which is more than offset by his steal%).

Patrick looks to be a significantly better defender and rebounder than ManMan (if we can learn anything from 22 minutes), would like to see him get 10+ minutes tonight to see if he can make an impact on offense. Especially if ManMan is a 1AD regardless of draft position, keeping Patrick for next year should be a priority.

 

[Phredd3]

The stats are mixed on ManMan's impact. His block% and OR% are both good, but his DR% is poor and nearly all the advanced stats peg him as one of our worst defenders (which concurs with my eye test.) Maliq is significantly better than MM across the board, other than block% (which is more than offset by his steal%).

I agree with you. But ManMan sets a defensive tone that (to my eyes, at least) has some carryover. The value of that has to be offset by the slow starts, of course, and I could be convinced that the trade-off isn't worth it. But I don't mind the status quo in terms of how it makes the other team react.

 

[SkyBrickey]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1866516977646227775

 

[CDu]

I agree with you. But ManMan sets a defensive tone that (to my eyes, at least) has some carryover. The value of that has to be offset by the slow starts, of course, and I could be convinced that the trade-off isn't worth it. But I don't mind the status quo in terms of how it makes the other team react.

Honestly, I don't think Maluach is providing much tone setting at all. His defensive metrics are worse than any of our rotation bigs right now. That isn't to say things won't change with time. But he looks slow and awkward out there. Obviously we need to keep him involved as there is a nice upside that we could get. But I don't know that I'd prioritize starting him over Brown, who is just a much much better player at the moment.

Of course, the injury to Brown changes things at least temporarily.

 

[Phredd3]

Honestly, I don't think Maluach is providing much tone setting at all. His defensive metrics are worse than any of our rotation bigs right now.

This is silly. I don't recall a metric that measures "tone setting". That's my opinion based on what I see on the floor. You may disagree with my view, but this one isn't about the metrics. And yes, I understand that the metrics show that Maluach is not our best defender and is a step behind the other bigs so far. I'm completely on board with that. And I still think there is value in having him in there for, say, the first four minutes to set the tone on the interior, and then let Brown come in to eat up the majority of the actual minutes.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Honestly, I don't think Maluach is providing much tone setting at all. His defensive metrics are worse than any of our rotation bigs right now. That isn't to say things won't change with time. But he looks slow and awkward out there.

Yeah, it seems like he's regressed a bit from early in the year, especially on the rebounding. I remember going through this same process with Williams and Lively - a rollercoaster until things seemed to finally start to click. Hopefully we will get to see that at some point with Khaman.

I didn't realize until recently just how young he is - only 4 months older than Flagg. So he's 7 months younger than Lively during his freshman year.

 

[CDu]

This is silly. I don't recall a metric that measures "tone setting". That's my opinion based on what I see on the floor. You may disagree with my view, but this one isn't about the metrics. And yes, I understand that the metrics show that Maluach is not our best defender and is a step behind the other bigs so far. I'm completely on board with that. And I still think there is value in having him in there for, say, the first four minutes to set the tone on the interior, and then let Brown come in to eat up the majority of the actual minutes.

It's not silly. You expressed an opinion. I expressed mine. I happened to support it with the only data we have. "Tone setting" is of course impossible to measure, but nothing in the measurables suggest he's setting a positive tone (considering we're generally getting hammered in those first 4 minutes of games).

 

[SkyBrickey]

Honestly, I don't think Maluach is providing much tone setting at all. His defensive metrics are worse than any of our rotation bigs right now. That isn't to say things won't change with time. But he looks slow and awkward out there. Obviously we need to keep him involved as there is a nice upside that we could get. But I don't know that I'd prioritize starting him over Brown, who is just a much much better player at the moment.

Of course, the injury to Brown changes things at least temporarily.

You've got to be careful with the player analytics, especially this early in the season. They are also showing that Gillis is a lot better than Flagg.

Maluach has been in the game at the beginning for these red hot starts by Kansas, Auburn, Louisville which I'm sure have crushed his defensive numbers. While I don't fault him, I would be a fan of trying Brown as a starter, when he's healthy, to try to avoid digging these early holes.

 

[CDu]

Yeah, it seems like he's regressed a bit from early in the year, especially on the rebounding. I remember going through this same process with Williams and Lively - a rollercoaster until things seemed to finally start to click. Hopefully we will get to see that at some point with Khaman.

I didn't realize until recently just how young he is - only 4 months older than Flagg. So he's 7 months younger than Lively during his freshman year.

Yeah, there's certainly plenty of time for Maluach to grow. He seems like a comparable player in terms of skill set to Mark Williams, albeit with a nicer touch on his shot. It took Williams a while to find his rhythm, but he eventually found it as a freshman. I think Maluach has more upside than Williams (being taller and with a bit more shooting touch), but it may wind up arriving on a similar timeline.

 

[CDu]

You've got to be careful with the player analytics, especially this early in the season. They are also showing that Gillis is a lot better than Flagg.

Maluach has been in the game at the beginning for these red hot starts by Kansas, Auburn, Louisville which I'm sure have crushed his defensive numbers. While I don't fault him, I would be a fan of trying Brown as a starter, when he's healthy, to try to avoid digging these early holes.

Not sure which metrics you are looking at, but according to DBPM and dRtg, Gillis is nowhere near Flagg.

It's true that defensive metrics can be wonky. But so far this year they are seeming to align with the eye test: Brown and then Flagg and James are our three best defenders (for different reasons, of course).

 

[SkyBrickey]

Yeah, there's certainly plenty of time for Maluach to grow. He seems like a comparable player in terms of skill set to Mark Williams, albeit with a nicer touch on his shot. It took Williams a while to find his rhythm, but he eventually found it as a freshman. I think Maluach has more upside than Williams (being taller and with a bit more shooting touch), but it may wind up arriving on a similar timeline.

I agree with all this. I think Williams is a better comp than Lively. How many rebounds did he have in that ACC tourney game before we had to shut it down? 17? It was one of the more amazing and unexpected performances I've ever seen from a Duke player.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Not sure which metrics you are looking at, but according to BPM and dRtg, Gillis is nowhere near Flagg.

It's true that defensive metrics can be wonky. But so far this year they are seeming to align with the eye test: Brown and then Flagg and James are our three best defenders (for different reasons, of course).

I saw it referenced on another thread. I think it was offensive metrics where Gillis was way ahead of Flagg - not individually, but team performance when each is in the game...

 

[CDu]

I saw it referenced on another thread. I think it was offensive metrics where Gillis was way ahead of Flagg - not individually, but team performance when each is in the game...

Ah, okay. Yeah, team-level offensive metrics aren't terribly useful, as they are so lineup-dependent. And there just isn't enough sample to glean much from that given how few possessions we have for each individual lineup.

 

[bluedevilwildcats]

A couple of observations after this last game:

• There have been a few comments about our offense being a "work in progress." I'm not sure what "work" is being done in practice, but I'm not seeing "progress" in games. If folks are seeing specific offensive changes that the coaches are implementing, can you call those out for the rest of us?
• Several posters have called out that if we aren't in fact a good (38%+) 3pt shooting team, we're in trouble, because we don't have guys who can break down the defense. I think this is accurate, because the defense sagging off our shooters will make it very difficult for us to score.
• Since we can't really "improve" our driving, it seems that increasing our 3P% is critical. To my eyes, that means two of Evans, Kon, Gillis and Proctor should be in the lineup as often as possible. I'd also like to see Harris get a lot of minutes and take a bunch of 3s the next couple of games, as his reputation out of high school was as a 3-level scorer. (couldn't find any high school stats though)

I've taken a look at our lineup combinations with at least 15 offensive possessions. (I know that's a low cutoff). Based on observed efficiency margins, here's what we see:

• Flagg, James, Kon, Maluach, Proctor (overall worst lineup, very poor offense and defense)
• Brown, Flagg, James, Kon, Proctor (recent starting lineup, 6th worst lineup, defense is strong but offense is terrible).
• Brown, Gillis, James, Kon, Proctor (3rd best lineup, very strong offense and defense.)
• Brown, Evans, Flagg, James, Proctor (2nd best lineup, very strong offense and defense.)

These last two lineups have Brown, James, and Proctor in common, so that's a solid starting 3.

Looking at players, pretty much any lineup with Foster doesn't do well, unfortunately. As we know, Maluach has a sizable negative affect on defensive efficiency. While Flagg's efficiency numbers are still strong individually, there are a handful of lineups that perform well without him. I think the key there is to replace him with someone who improves our offense (Gillis, for example) w/o significantly decreasing our defense.

Flagg is really struggling on offense. I think the coaches need to figure out how to get him easy looks close to the basket. I've heard Jon say that multiple times but he hasn't delivered, at least not from what I can see.

 

[azzefkram]

A couple of observations after this last game:

• There have been a few comments about our offense being a "work in progress." I'm not sure what "work" is being done in practice, but I'm not seeing "progress" in games. If folks are seeing specific offensive changes that the coaches are implementing, can you call those out for the rest of us?
• Several posters have called out that if we aren't in fact a good (38%+) 3pt shooting team, we're in trouble, because we don't have guys who can break down the defense. I think this is accurate, because the defense sagging off our shooters will make it very difficult for us to score.
• Since we can't really "improve" our driving, it seems that increasing our 3P% is critical. To my eyes, that means two of Evans, Kon, Gillis and Proctor should be in the lineup as often as possible. I'd also like to see Harris get a lot of minutes and take a bunch of 3s the next couple of games, as his reputation out of high school was as a 3-level scorer. (couldn't find any high school stats though)

I've taken a look at our lineup combinations with at least 15 offensive possessions. (I know that's a low cutoff). Based on observed efficiency margins, here's what we see:

• Flagg, James, Kon, Maluach, Proctor (overall worst lineup, very poor offense and defense)
• Brown, Flagg, James, Kon, Proctor (recent starting lineup, 6th worst lineup, defense is strong but offense is terrible).
• Brown, Gillis, James, Kon, Proctor (3rd best lineup, very strong offense and defense.)
• Brown, Evans, Flagg, James, Proctor (2nd best lineup, very strong offense and defense.)

These last two lineups have Brown, James, and Proctor in common, so that's a solid starting 3.

Looking at players, pretty much any lineup with Foster doesn't do well, unfortunately. As we know, Maluach has a sizable negative affect on defensive efficiency. While Flagg's efficiency numbers are still strong individually, there are a handful of lineups that perform well without him. I think the key there is to replace him with someone who improves our offense (Gillis, for example) w/o significantly decreasing our defense.

Flagg is really struggling on offense. I think the coaches need to figure out how to get him easy looks close to the basket. I've heard Jon say that multiple times but he hasn't delivered, at least not from what I can see.

15 possessions is not just low; it's ludicrously low (~2% of possessions).

Khaman does need to improve his defense but his numbers are being dinged by the players he plays with. No one shares more court time with Kon and Caleb than Khaman. About 53% of Khaman's minutes come with Kon and Caleb on the court. No one else is over 45%. Maliq only shares about 33%.

I agree with CDu that Maliq and Cooper are Duke's best defenders. I would probably put Tyrese ahead of Sion but it's probably coin flip close.