Strategy Discussions: rotations, play calling, roster management, and more

scottdude8 said:
The Sion/Caleb discussion is one that will surely continue. I actually thought Caleb played very well, particularly in the first half, against Auburn. Sion was also excellent. The question is, what does one do that the other doesn’t? Right now, Sion has the lone clear plus with his defense, but if Caleb can consistently attack the rim like he did at times on Wednesday that could change. My bet is regardless of who starts we’ll be seeing pretty equal PT between Sion and Caleb for the foreseeable future, with Tyrese more of a fixture.

As for Gillis, while he obviously hasn’t played his best so far, I maintain there’s going to be a game or two we don’t win this year without him. I watched him drive the B1G crazy for too long to think he’s not going to eventually come out of this slump. The question is going to be how Scheyer manages the bench minutes in the meantime, especially if Isaiah continues his hot streak.
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I think Caleb is probably a better outside shooter and for that reason can help more with spacing.

Completely agree with you on Gillis. He'll be a big contributor at some point this season.
 
After copious calculation I've decided on the optimum minutes per game (MPG) distribution for the players in the early* season. It optimizes the chance for everyone to play with everyone so Jon gets to see which combinations work best and provides the best chance for one of the lesser used players to blossom and move up in the rotation. It also optimizes the amount we get to see all of the players play since, for some reason, they aren't televising all of the practices. We will probably need to designate a "minutes guru" on the coaching staff to ensure the minutes plan is implemented properly. Oh, one other thing, I'm in negotiations to implement Zoom sessions for all coaches' meetings to include DBR members so our knowledge and advice will be available to Jon and crew on a real time basis.

*Early season is defined as anything before the ACC tournament.

Anyway, here you go. With apologies to Spencer Hubbard.

Proctor 17
Knueppel 17
Flagg 17
Cooper 17
Brown 16
Maluach 16
Foster 16
Evans 16
James 15
Harris 15
Ngongba II 15
Gillis 15
Hubbard 8
 
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camion said:
After copious calculation I've decided on the optimum minutes per game (MPG) distribution for the players in the early* season. It optimizes the chance for everyone to play with everyone so Jon gets to see which combinations work best and provides the best chance for one of the lesser used players to blossom and move up in the rotation. It also optimizes the amount we get to see all of the players play since, for some reason, they aren't televising all of the practices.

"Early" season is defined as anything before the ACC tournament.

Anyway, here you go. With apologies to Spencer Hubbard.

Proctor 17
Knueppel 17
Flagg 17
Cooper 17
Brown 16
Maluach 16
Foster 16
Evans 16
James 15
Harris 15
Ngongba II 15
Gillis 15
Hubbard 8
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Do they all get a Trophy?
 
scottdude8 said:
The Sion/Caleb discussion is one that will surely continue. I actually thought Caleb played very well, particularly in the first half, against Auburn. Sion was also excellent. The question is, what does one do that the other doesn’t? Right now, Sion has the lone clear plus with his defense, but if Caleb can consistently attack the rim like he did at times on Wednesday that could change. My bet is regardless of who starts we’ll be seeing pretty equal PT between Sion and Caleb for the foreseeable future, with Tyrese more of a fixture.

As for Gillis, while he obviously hasn’t played his best so far, I maintain there’s going to be a game or two we don’t win this year without him. I watched him drive the B1G crazy for too long to think he’s not going to eventually come out of this slump. The question is going to be how Scheyer manages the bench minutes in the meantime, especially if Isaiah continues his hot streak.
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I understand the consternation over Gillis' individual numbers, but Duke appears to play better when he is on the floor. Duke's Ortg is 120.5 (88th percentile). When Gillis is on the floor, it's 125.7 (96th). Duke's Drtg is 90.6 (94th). When Gillis is on the floor, it's 77 (99th). Glue guys' impact often goes beyond their individual stats, and Mason seems like the glueiest of gluey glue guys.
 
azzefkram said:
I understand the consternation over Gillis' individual numbers, but Duke appears to play better when he is on the floor. Duke's Ortg is 120.5 (88th percentile). When Gillis is on the floor, it's 125.7 (96th). Duke's Drtg is 90.6 (94th). When Gillis is on the floor, it's 77 (99th). Glue guys' impact often goes beyond their individual stats, and Mason seems like the glueiest of gluey glue guys.
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I'm with you here. I think it was during the Seattle game where the color guy (Spatola I believe, unfortunately) made a whole stink about how Gillis "gives you nothing" if he isn't making his threes. I strongly disagree for the reasons you outlined (glad to see the numbers bear that out). There's also the fact that Gillis, like Sion, brings a physicality and toughness to the court that no one else on our roster, given their relative youth, does. That's invaluable, even if it is in brief spurts and dependent upon game flow.
 
azzefkram said:
I understand the consternation over Gillis' individual numbers, but Duke appears to play better when he is on the floor. Duke's Ortg is 120.5 (88th percentile). When Gillis is on the floor, it's 125.7 (96th). Duke's Drtg is 90.6 (94th). When Gillis is on the floor, it's 77 (99th). Glue guys' impact often goes beyond their individual stats, and Mason seems like the glueiest of gluey glue guys.
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Is it his defense and rebounding? I don't see it in his scoring or assisting. K Pom has Duke's defense #1 and the offense #10. Defense great and the offense good. I like Gillis' toughness, and I guess there will be times it will be needed, but I think there is a better option when it comes to offense.

GoDuke!
 
bluedevilwildcats said:
Maluach and Brown are substitutes, there are no "good" lineups that include both of them. And of the two, Brown slightly trails offensively but is much better defensively and should be on the court a lot (see below).
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We have no idea about the quality of lineups including Khaman and Maliq as they have only shared the floor for 5 minutes. I love Brown's defense and it is better than Khaman's but the offense doesn't slightly trail unless you are using that phrase in a Wile E. Coyote sense. Duke's Ortg is 132.6 (99th) when Khaman is on the floor. With Maliq, it's 106.9 (49th). If you want to use point/40, it's 86.7 vs 74.2.

Maliq's defensive numbers are better than Khaman's but a portion of that can be attributed to lineups. More than half of Khaman's minutes have been when Kon and Caleb are on the floor. It is only about a third of the time for Maliq.
 
jv001 said:
Is it his defense and rebounding? I don't see it in his scoring or assisting. K Pom has Duke's defense #1 and the offense #10. Defense great and the offense good. I like Gillis' toughness, and I guess there will be times it will be needed, but I think there is a better option when it comes to offense.

GoDuke!
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As counterintuitive as it may seem, Duke shoots better when Mason's on the court (56.3 vs 58.1 from 2, 36.6 vs. 41.9 from 3). Defensive rebounding is better (74% vs 81.2%). Maybe it is small sample size. Maybe it is a glue guy outperforming his stats, Maybe it is a little from column A and a little from column B.
 
azzefkram said:
As counterintuitive as it may seem, Duke shoots better when Mason's on the court (56.3 vs 58.1 from 2, 36.6 vs. 41.9 from 3). Defensive rebounding is better (74% vs 81.2%). Maybe it is small sample size. Maybe it is a glue guy outperforming his stats, Maybe it is a little from column A and a little from column B.
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Sort of like the +/- stat?

GoDuke!
 
Does anyone want to guess what these percentages represent?

23.1%, 2.5%, 5.4%, 3.3%, 0.0%, 7.7%, 0.0%, 0.0%

Each player's percentage of 2 pt shots taken outside of the paint

That's impressive. I'd say more but it would give away the spoiler.
 
Can anyone recommend a youtube channel that puts out a good analysis of Duke's x's and o's? I know Scheyer's strategy this season, to date, has been mostly to let the kids play, but I'd love to see an analysis of what's working and what's not (and why) when he is calling plays.
 
Mods, if I am off base in creating this new thread let me know or take it down, but I find this video that M Chambers put up on the Auburn thread fascinating and while I didn't read through the previous pages of that thread it appears not much was discussed about how maybe our offensive play calling maybe maturing. Think these videos really help us see the nuances over time. For intance this "floppy" iteration of plays, harkens back to the JJ Reddick's and Jay Williams's days.

I'd just like to hear more discussion and comments on how the different sets evolve and mature over time for Duke this year as we have the personnel to really have quite a diverse set of plays and watching and understanding everyone's perspective is interesting to me....To me it would be worthy of a thread just on its on

From MChambers post: Brian Geisinger’s analysis of how Duke got Evan’s free and also dealt with Auburn’s flex offense. Worth your time: https://briangeisinger.substack.com...ect=true&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
 
3xDukie said:
Can anyone recommend a youtube channel that puts out a good analysis of Duke's x's and o's? I know Scheyer's strategy this season, to date, has been mostly to let the kids play, but I'd love to see an analysis of what's working and what's not (and why) when he is calling plays.
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Brian Geisinger's posts, called Split the Action, has great analysis on both ends of the floor. He covers all of the ACC, but seems to focus on Duke, understandably, as Duke is the most interesting ACC team, IMO and the opinion of almost everyone here, I think. https://briangeisinger.substack.com/?utm_campaign=subscribe-page-share-screen&utm_medium=web
 
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