Scrimmage Video (June 2024)

[azzefkram]

I agree that Maluach's offense is ahead of his defense, as you said in the excellent piece. I thought that was true in the BAL as well. He is surprisingly comfortable with the ball, both handling and shooting. His defense will improve, but I expect he'll commit some bad fouls early in the season.

I agree. Good news is I think court awareness can be improved with reps. The more situations he gets exposed to, the better he will realize what he can and can't do. Take Cooper's blow-by from the video. Khaman never should have been trying to poke the ball away. It got his momentum going north-south when he should have been going east-west to stay in front of Cooper.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I guess this is why off-season debates are so much fun... I'd pencil those into my starting lineup right now (with Proctor and Foster).

If you're just trying to put our 5 best guys on the court, I wouldn't argue with you. That defensive lineup would be especially nasty.

But when you realize that Brown will likely be MM 2.0 from deep and the opposing team will sag his defender into the lane to slow down Flagg and Maluach, it looks less good.

Then when you realize that Ngongba is just not ready to play at this level compared to all our other star talent on the team, you have to acknowledge that Brown will be playing 15-20mpg at the 5 and that starting Flagg-Brown-Maluach together makes even less sense.

Maybe we do see that lineup for 10mpg like Scottdude suggests. Maybe it creates mismatches on both ends that overwhelms teams - a bit like bringing in a guy from the bullpen who throws 103.

But it can't be a primary lineup unless we are planning to play Ngongba 15mpg+ while only giving K2 and Evans garbage minutes (this assumes James and Gillis will be in the rotation which I haven't heard anyone argue against). This is not how Jon has built the roster and wouldn't make any sense.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I agree. Good news is I think court awareness can be improved with reps. The more situations he gets exposed to, the better he will realize what he can and can't do. Take Cooper's blow-by from the video. Khaman never should have been trying to poke the ball away. It got his momentum going north-south when he should have been going east-west to stay in front of Cooper.

We agree!

I've said I think that Maluach's development will be the difference between this being a great team and a potentially all-time great team. He already looks ready to be that lob threat on offense and he's got the nice shooting touch to finish easy buckets inside.

The big question for me is can he learn to play that positional, rim-protecting defense without fouling. The kind of defense that blocks a few shots but alters many more. Big Mark and Lively both got there but it took time. How far along will Khaman's defense be by end of year?

 

[CDu]

Here's the link to the full piece. I also dive into what we might be able to surmise from Sion and Kon's performances, and what Maliq did that wasn't included in the "highlights."



This is certainly a viable explanation, and it was hard to tell where this scrimmage fell on the scale of "A team vs B team" to "Two evenly matched teams"... it was certainly somewhere in the middle considering that our starting backcourt was intact and coupled with our likely starting center, but Cooper was on the other side. That said, if Jon's expectation was to have the fifth starter (alongside Tyrese, Caleb, Cooper and Khaman) be more wing than big it would make sense for him to start getting some data on how that would work, especially given the limited time we have Khaman this summer.

I know I've been in the minority thinking that Maliq will start and/or that he and Khaman will play alongside each other (and with Cooper at the 3) for significant minutes, and I'm coming around to Jason's perspective that Sion may earn the fifth starter's role. But I still think Maliq's role is going to be more than just Cooper and Khaman's backup based on his CV in ACC play, not to mention the fact that he's being universally lauded for his defensive acumen. It's just June 27, but if I had to bet now I'd still say we see a Flagg/Brown/Maluach frontcourt for at least 10 mpg on average, and that that group will be the starting frontcourt at least a couple times this season.

There wasn't a single grouping in this video. The opening segment had Proctor, James, Evans, Gillis, and Maluach on the white team and Foster, Knueppel, Flagg, Brown, and Ngongba on the blue team. Then midway through they showed Brown and Foster on the white team and James and Gillis on the blue team. Then later James and Proctor flipped places as did Maluach and Ngongba. So I don't think there's much to take away from that other than that we probably won't see Maluach and Ngongba on the court together.

 

[scottdude8]

I have a surprise for you on the next pod.

Pleeeease let the surprise be I was right all along and am therefore named the new King of the DBR Podcast

 

[scottdude8]

If you're just trying to put our 5 best guys on the court, I wouldn't argue with you. That defensive lineup would be especially nasty.

But when you realize that Brown will likely be MM 2.0 from deep and the opposing team will sag his defender into the lane to slow down Flagg and Maluach, it looks less good.

Then when you realize that Ngongba is just not ready to play at this level compared to all our other star talent on the team, you have to acknowledge that Brown will be playing 15-20mpg at the 5 and that starting Flagg-Brown-Maluach together makes even less sense.

Maybe we do see that lineup for 10mpg like Scottdude suggests. Maybe it creates mismatches on both ends that overwhelms teams - a bit like bringing in a guy from the bullpen who throws 103.

But it can't be a primary lineup unless we are planning to play Ngongba 15mpg+ while only giving K2 and Evans garbage minutes (this assumes James and Gillis will be in the rotation which I haven't heard anyone argue against). This is not how Jon has built the roster and wouldn't make any sense.

I think this is where the strong disagreements stem from. If Brown is an MM level 3 point shooter, I think your concerns would be valid. However, there's plenty of reason to believe he'll be a notably better shooter than MM. Maliq shot 36.8% from 3 last year, albeit on only 19 shots; MM shot 27.5% on an admittedly larger sample size of 40 shots. But as people always say, FT shooting often is a precursor for one's 3 point shooting ceiling, and on that front Maliq wins again: he shot 72% from the line last year, while Mark only shot 62.3% (and with a much higher sample size indicating that is a real indication of his shooting prowess). There's also the qualitative assessment that Maliq's shot just looks better than Mark's, making me more confident that it could improve after a summer with the Duke staff.

For reference, Kyle shot 34% from deep last year and we considered him a good (definitely not great, nor as good as we expected) shooter for a big. If Maliq can even approach that, shooting something like 32% from deep, he'd provide adequate (if not optimal) floor spacing. I think there's plenty of evidence that that is well within the realm of realistic possibilities, which is why I think your certainty (or at least what sounds like it on a message board, haha) is unwarranted here

 

[azzefkram]

I think this is where the strong disagreements stem from. If Brown is an MM level 3 point shooter, I think your concerns would be valid. However, there's plenty of reason to believe he'll be a notably better shooter than MM. Maliq shot 36.8% from 3 last year, albeit on only 19 shots; MM shot 27.5% on an admittedly larger sample size of 40 shots. But as people always say, FT shooting often is a precursor for one's 3 point shooting ceiling, and on that front Maliq wins again: he shot 72% from the line last year, while Mark only shot 62.3% (and with a much higher sample size indicating that is a real indication of his shooting prowess). There's also the qualitative assessment that Maliq's shot just looks better than Mark's, making me more confident that it could improve after a summer with the Duke staff.

For reference, Kyle shot 34% from deep last year and we considered him a good (definitely not great, nor as good as we expected) shooter for a big. If Maliq can even approach that, shooting something like 32% from deep, he'd provide adequate (if not optimal) floor spacing. I think there's plenty of evidence that that is well within the realm of realistic possibilities, which is why I think your certainty (or at least what sounds like it on a message board, haha) is unwarranted here

It's almost like people forgot that Duke had a top-10 offense last year, with 3 players shooting 35%, 35%, and 28% from 3 in Duke's most used line-up (23% of the time, second place was 13%). All that while assuming that freshmen are guaranteed good shooters even though noted shooters like TJ and Luke (among others) struggled from 3 in their freshman year.

Let's consider this: Maliq has a strong chance of being Duke's second-best defender this season. When has Duke ever brought their second-best defender off the bench? Is it logical for Duke and Jon to sideline its second-best defender to boost its (at best) fourth option on offense?

Maliq's outside shot is very much TBD, but you can say that for every other wing option not named Mason.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I think this is where the strong disagreements stem from. If Brown is an MM level 3 point shooter, I think your concerns would be valid. However, there's plenty of reason to believe he'll be a notably better shooter than MM. Maliq shot 36.8% from 3 last year, albeit on only 19 shots; MM shot 27.5% on an admittedly larger sample size of 40 shots. But as people always say, FT shooting often is a precursor for one's 3 point shooting ceiling, and on that front Maliq wins again: he shot 72% from the line last year, while Mark only shot 62.3% (and with a much higher sample size indicating that is a real indication of his shooting prowess). There's also the qualitative assessment that Maliq's shot just looks better than Mark's, making me more confident that it could improve after a summer with the Duke staff.

For reference, Kyle shot 34% from deep last year and we considered him a good (definitely not great, nor as good as we expected) shooter for a big. If Maliq can even approach that, shooting something like 32% from deep, he'd provide adequate (if not optimal) floor spacing. I think there's plenty of evidence that that is well within the realm of realistic possibilities, which is why I think your certainty (or at least what sounds like it on a message board, haha) is unwarranted here

Ok, you make a good case that Jon could experiment with Brown as a stretch shooter alongside Cooper. I'm sure Brown wants that for his development.

But if you do run that lineup for even 10 minutes a game - with Brown backing up Maluach at the 5 for 10-20mpg - then you still run into the issue of either having only one of Flagg/Brown/Maluach on the court for some minutes or the trio averaging more than 27mpg in competitive contests which cuts into the already very competitive James/Gillis/K2/Evans minutes.

Is the juice worth the squeeze to get this lineup on the court for 10mpg when you've got Gillis, Evans, K2 sitting on the bench? Maybe.

 

[SkyBrickey]

It's almost like people forgot that Duke had a top-10 offense last year, with 3 players shooting 35%, 35%, and 28% from 3 in Duke's most used line-up (23% of the time, second place was 13%). All that while assuming that freshmen are guaranteed good shooters even though noted shooters like TJ and Luke (among others) struggled from 3 in their freshman year.

Let's consider this: Maliq has a strong chance of being Duke's second-best defender this season. When has Duke ever brought their second-best defender off the bench? Is it logical for Duke and Jon to sideline its second-best defender to boost its (at best) fourth option on offense?

Maliq's outside shot is very much TBD, but you can say that for every other wing option not named Mason.

The biggest issue with your analysis is not "where can Maliq play or not play?" It's that you want to give Ngongba rotation minutes ahead of K2 and Evans when he's clearly behind them in terms of being college-ready.

Even if he hadn't just missed a whole year of HS with an injury, the odds would still be stacked against a freshman big ranked in the 20s seeing anything other than garbage minutes on a team that is this loaded.

And why does it matter whether Maliq gets 25mpg as a starter or 25mpg backing up the 4/5? What's so magical about starting? Is it not conceivable to you that he might be more valuable when his minutes are matched up with other players?

 

[SkyBrickey]

Maybe frame it up a different way in your mind...

Flagg, Brown and Maluach are so good and so valuable to the team that we always need to have 2 out of 3 on the court, which means all 3 will rarely play together.

 

[azzefkram]

The biggest issue with your analysis is not "where can Maliq play or not play?" It's that you want to give Ngongba rotation minutes ahead of K2 and Evans when he's clearly behind them in terms of being college-ready.

Even if he hadn't just missed a whole year of HS with an injury, the odds would still be stacked against a freshman big ranked in the 20s seeing anything other than garbage minutes on a team that is this loaded.

I want to put the best starting 5 out there. You don't make your starting 5 worse because you are concerned about backups. If K2 and Evans want to play, they must perform better than Sion and Mason. Pat doesn't enter the equation, because they are not competing for the same spot. Pat will be playing the Ryan Young role. Do you believe that K2 and Evans will be better rebounders, shot blockers, rim runners, and screen setters than Pat?

As for who is more college-ready, we have no idea. The role will matter a boatload. Pat may be a better backup 5 than either K2, and Evans will be backup 2/3s.

You keep harping on recruit rankings. Who frickin' cares? Mark Williams was ranked 25th (same as Pat) and he considered going pro after his freshman year. DJ Wagner was 6th and he is coming back for his sophomore season. Flip was 4th and came back.

Historically, players in K2 and Evans range have played as freshmen. This is true. Historically, those players had no one competing for their minutes when they were freshmen. This is also true. Assuming K2 and Evans will play because of where they are ranked shows an alarming lack of awareness that the situation is profoundly different.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I want to put the best starting 5 out there. You don't make your starting 5 worse because you are concerned about backups. If K2 and Evans want to play, they must perform better than Sion and Mason. Pat doesn't enter the equation, because they are not competing for the same spot. Pat will be playing the Ryan Young role. Do you believe that K2 and Evans will be better rebounders, shot blockers, rim runners, and screen setters than Pat?

As for who is more college-ready, we have no idea. The role will matter a boatload. Pat may be a better backup 5 than either K2, and Evans will be backup 2/3s.

You keep harping on recruit rankings. Who frickin' cares? Mark Williams was ranked 25th (same as Pat) and he considered going pro after his freshman year. DJ Wagner was 6th and he is coming back for his sophomore season. Flip was 4th and came back.

Historically, players in K2 and Evans range have played as freshmen. This is true. Historically, those players had no one competing for their minutes when they were freshmen. This is also true. Assuming K2 and Evans will play because of where they are ranked shows an alarming lack of awareness that the situation is profoundly different.

No, I keep harping on the fact that Pat just missed a whole season of basketball due to an injury and he was pretty clearly far from recovered at the U18s. I've also harped on the fact that Brown was an All ACC defender playing the 5 last year and is much much much much better qualified to play 15mpg at the 5 than Ngongba.

The fact that K2 and Evans are 8-10 spots higher in the rankings is like 4th or 5th in my list of arguments...

It doesn't matter. You won't be persuaded until the season starts. And you definitely won't win me over to your side. I'm already conceding that it's a possibility Jon might run Flagg-Brown-Maluach out there for 10mpg. Not going any further than that...

 

[Phredd3]

No, I keep harping on the fact that Pat just missed a whole season of basketball due to an injury and he was pretty clearly far from recovered at the U18s. I've also harped on the fact that Brown was an All ACC defender playing the 5 last year and is much much much much better qualified to play 15mpg at the 5 than Ngongba.

You have a very high level of certitude given the paucity of data. I'm hoping you're wrong, but I'm going to at least wait to see a little more action before I conclude that, in your words, "the odds [are] stacked against [Ngongba] seeing anything other than garbage minutes." You might be right that Ngongba ends up earning very little time. But let's at least give him a shot at it before we relegate him to the transfer portal (which these days is what "garbage minutes" really means).

And you definitely won't win me over to your side. I'm already conceding that it's a possibility Jon might run Flagg-Brown-Maluach out there for 10mpg.

You have a very unique way of conceding.

 

[SkyBrickey]

You have a very high level of certitude given the paucity of data. I'm hoping you're wrong, but I'm going to at least wait to see a little more action before I conclude that, in your words, "the odds [are] stacked against [Ngongba] seeing anything other than garbage minutes." You might be right that Ngongba ends up earning very little time. But let's at least give him a shot at it before we relegate him to the transfer portal (which these days is what "garbage minutes" really means).


You have a very unique way of conceding.

Of course these are all my opinions, but maybe I need to add more "IMOs"!

I have a lot of uncertainty about the roster and rotations, but I do feel pretty strongly that Brown will get the backup minutes at the 5 over Ngongba. I've listed the 5-6 things that point to that in other posts and won't do it again. Azz and others are free to put their bets on Ngongba...

I've also made the point that IMO Pat's decision for where he will play his sophomore year will have a lot more to do with his path to a starting role or at least 25mpg at Duke. The fact that Jon has a recruiting offer out for every position except Center tells me that Jon is planning for Pat to be in the rotation for big minutes as a sophomore...

 

[azzefkram]

Of course these are all my opinions, but maybe I need to add more "IMOs"!

I have a lot of uncertainty about the roster and rotations, but I do feel pretty strongly that Brown will get the backup minutes at the 5 over Ngongba. I've listed the 5-6 things that point to that in other posts and won't do it again. Azz and others are free to put their bets on Ngongba...

I've also made the point that IMO Pat's decision for where he will play his sophomore year will have a lot more to do with his path to a starting role or at least 25mpg at Duke. The fact that Jon has a recruiting offer out for every position except Center tells me that Jon is planning for Pat to be in the rotation for big minutes as a sophomore...

I am not comparing Maliq and Pat for the backup five. I am comparing Maliq, Sion, Mason, K2, and Evans for the fifth starter. I think the transfers are clearly ahead of the freshmen simply because the transfers have shown that they can perform and perform well in college. Of the transfers, I put Maliq at the head of the line because the nerd stats like him best, he was All-ACC defender, and he is the best 4 out of the candidates.

If putting the best starting 5 means Pat gets more minutes than K2 and Evans, so be it. Duke's floor and ceiling are going to be determined by Duke's starting 5, not who is 8, 9, or 10 on the depth chart.

The fact that Jon hasn't offered any centers for 2025 has more to do with the centers available than Pat. The best center is ranked 28th and committed to UCF. The top available center is ranked 36. Jon will probably be portalling for a big man next year.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I am not comparing Maliq and Pat for the backup five. I am comparing Maliq, Sion, Mason, K2, and Evans for the fifth starter. I think the transfers are clearly ahead of the freshmen simply because the transfers have shown that they can perform and perform well in college. Of the transfers, I put Maliq at the head of the line because the nerd stats like him best, he was All-ACC defender, and he is the best 4 out of the candidates.

If putting the best starting 5 means Pat gets more minutes than K2 and Evans, so be it. Duke's floor and ceiling are going to be determined by Duke's starting 5, not who is 8, 9, or 10 on the depth chart.

The fact that Jon hasn't offered any centers for 2025 has more to do with the centers available than Pat. The best center is ranked 28th and committed to UCF. The top available center is ranked 36. Jon will probably be portalling for a big man next year.

Not going to debate you any more on the plan to play Ngongba more minutes than K2 and Evans. We will know when the season starts.

But I am genuinely curious about one point.

In a competitive game, do you think Maliq playing 25 minutes as a starter has more value to us winning than him playing 25 minutes coming off the bench? If so, why?

And the same question for James. Do you think it matters if he plays his 25mpg as a starter or coming off the bench?

 

[scottdude8]

I want to put the best starting 5 out there. You don't make your starting 5 worse because you are concerned about backups. If K2 and Evans want to play, they must perform better than Sion and Mason. Pat doesn't enter the equation, because they are not competing for the same spot. Pat will be playing the Ryan Young role. Do you believe that K2 and Evans will be better rebounders, shot blockers, rim runners, and screen setters than Pat?

As for who is more college-ready, we have no idea. The role will matter a boatload. Pat may be a better backup 5 than either K2, and Evans will be backup 2/3s.

You keep harping on recruit rankings. Who frickin' cares? Mark Williams was ranked 25th (same as Pat) and he considered going pro after his freshman year. DJ Wagner was 6th and he is coming back for his sophomore season. Flip was 4th and came back.

Historically, players in K2 and Evans range have played as freshmen. This is true. Historically, those players had no one competing for their minutes when they were freshmen. This is also true. Assuming K2 and Evans will play because of where they are ranked shows an alarming lack of awareness that the situation is profoundly different.

Yeah, the bolded is it for me. Our best 5 players can, should, and probably will start. Should one of Tyus Jones or Quinn Cook not started in 2015 because they were the only PGs on the roster? Should one of Jon, Nolan, or Kyle come off the bench in 2010 because they were our only trustworthy perimeter players (given how raw Andre Dawkins was) and we had more depth up front? There are plenty more examples but those are the ones that pop straight into my head given the obvious significance.

 

[scottdude8]

Not going to debate you any more on the plan to play Ngongba more minutes than K2 and Evans. We will know when the season starts.

But I am genuinely curious about one point.

In a competitive game, do you think Maliq playing 25 minutes as a starter has more value to us winning than him playing 25 minutes coming off the bench? If so, why?

And the same question for James. Do you think it matters if he plays his 25mpg as a starter or coming off the bench?

While you may have a point here, I’d counter with: when in recent Duke history, or amongst the best teams in the country, has the team’s starters not been the players that play the most? (The closest I can think of is Kentucky this year, but I think most of big blue nation would’ve much rather Sheppard and Dillingham start based on how their season went and ended.)

What you’re describing may be valid in principle, but just so rarely happens in practice. The odds are the guys that Jon thinks are his best 5 will play most AND start because that is the norm. Maybe this year will be the exception to the norm, but arguing for that position is a bit of an odd hill to die on.

 

[SkyBrickey]

While you may have a point here, I’d counter with: when in recent Duke history, or amongst the best teams in the country, has the team’s starters not been the players that play the most? (The closest I can think of is Kentucky this year, but I think most of big blue nation would’ve much rather Sheppard and Dillingham start based on how their season went and ended.)

What you’re describing may be valid in principle, but just so rarely happens in practice. The odds are the guys that Jon thinks are his best 5 will play most AND start because that is the norm. Maybe this year will be the exception to the norm, but arguing for that position is a bit of an odd hill to die on.

Ok I won't debate Azz anymore but I'll debate you...

Even if we do ignore lineups beyond the starting 5, what makes you so confident Brown is a better player than Gillis or James? Maybe, but maybe not. Especially if you believe shooting around Flagg and Maluach should be a priority.

Ultimately Jon's opinion matters more than all of ours. Did he have an idea of who was going to play where when he was putting this roster together? Of course he did. Remember that Ngonba had just missed a whole year of HS....

If his plan was to play Cooper at the wing and Brown at the 4, why in the world would he bring in two more rotation quality wings in James and Gillis on top of two top-15 freshman wings? Instead of a proven and healthy backup Center to Maluach - also a freshman who has only been hooping it for 5 years. It doesn't make any sense.

Now Jon is free to change his mind, and maybe he has. Maybe Ngongba will have an unreal summer and emerge as a great backup to Maluach. It's possible. But there's no evidence of this yet. And if he does, both K2 and Evans will be relegated to garbage minutes as our 9th and 10th men. I just can't see it. Sam Vicente is predicting K2 will be our second best freshman after that scrimmage video - I saw those same flashes of a budding superstar...

 

[SkyBrickey]

And if I'm dying on a hill, it's this one.

Maluach is unlikely to play more than 25mpg. And for those other 15mpg+, we will be a much, much better team with the ACC's top defensive post player playing over a freshman who just missed a year of basketball. That's my hill. I'll die on it. Everything else I'm flexible on...