2024 U.S. Presidential election

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Maxim Lott. Know your sources. Do not expect anything unbiased from that source. Anyone who thinks he is unbiased does not know what the word unbiased means.
I should have expanded my comments. In the discussion of the betting markets last week there was talk about setting up such an article as the one of Fox News. Yes, definitely not biased, but I thought the thread did a good job talking about some of the big moves in the betting market.
 
A lot of talk among the pundits re Trump's repeated statements about "the enemy within". Understandable, they are the ones who will be targeted if he returns to power.

I have a different take, probably because I am confident he will lose. Bigly. He's setting the country up for violence, convincing his followers that this is war. Literally.

He is simply a heinous person.

We are lucky he has no power other than to incite. And I say bring it on. Brains always beats brawn. ALWAYS.
 
My feeling is that the election won’t actually be that close. The problem being I have no idea which way it will go. But of the 7 swing states, I think the breakdown will be 7-0 or 6-1. I am just not confident in calling it either way(though I know which side I’m rooting for)
This is 100% where I am as well.
 
Speaking of the betting markets, here is a Fox News article that talks about how much better the betting markets are at predicting the winner than the polls.

At the bottom of that guy's website "Copyright 2022, FTX Trading Ltd" (which is probably never true.) His partner seems to be doing an Alex Jones lite internet show that he co-created. This would seem to play into the belief that those betting market are being manipulated. No saying there might not be something in the betting market but I won't take that guys word for it.
 
At the bottom of that guy's website "Copyright 2022, FTX Trading Ltd" (which is probably never true.) His partner seems to be doing an Alex Jones lite internet show that he co-created. This would seem to play into the belief that those betting market are being manipulated. No saying there might not be something in the betting market but I won't take that guys word for it.
Their ONLY hope is to depress turnout. They think it will depress the Ds, it could just as well motivate them that they have to vote. Especially since they can't show Trump with a huge lead since that would be laughed at, so the best they can do is make it look close which works against their intentions. They're not smart, but they've also got a limited playbook.

Overconfidence in a Harris win would be more damaging to D turnout.
 
Ummm..nope. As long as my side wins it can be as close as it needs to be.
My point is that if it’s close the Right will fight tooth and nail, and we will probably see something worse than January 6. But if either side wins big, I think that will chill some of the rhetoric and violence. So I hope one side wins big just for the sake of some measure of peace.
 
Some point soon we will get past the polls and get some really good analysis on early voting. Interesting stuff going on in PA. I have read if the early vote difference gets somewhere between 400,000-500,000 it’s a tipping point that same day voting Rs will not be able to make up. The gap at the moment is 325,000 and that’s just the D vote. How many Rs will vote for Harris?


This is very encouraging.

Now that early voting is so widespread, I tend to stop paying attention to polls after about a week of early voting.
 
My point is that if it’s close the Right will fight tooth and nail, and we will probably see something worse than January 6. But if either side wins big, I think that will chill some of the rhetoric and violence. So I hope one side wins big just for the sake of some measure of peace.

I’m not so sure the margin of victory will matter much to the “true believers”
 
Some point soon we will get past the polls and get some really good analysis on early voting. Interesting stuff going on in PA. I have read if the early vote difference gets somewhere between 400,000-500,000 it’s a tipping point that same day voting Rs will not be able to make up. The gap at the moment is 325,000 and that’s just the D vote. How many Rs will vote for Harris?

Interesting numbers. Would be curious to know how that compares to results after 10 days of early voting in Pennsylvania in 2020 (although might not be all that indicative given COVID).

The ballgame hidden in those numbers would seem to be (a) how do the percentage of crossover votes for POTUS compare between D and R ballots (i.e., we probably expect more Republican defectors voting for Harris than the other way around, but is that actually the case and if so, is it significant or de minimus), and (b) how are the two candidates doing with Independents?
 
I suggest a Women Of Wrestling cage match between Liz Cheney and Lindsey Graham. Pay-per-view would be through the roof. Or the ceiling.

GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina on Sunday slammed members of his own party who are supporting Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential bid, asking them, “What the hell are you doing?”

“Well, don’t listen to Lindsey Graham,” Cheney responded. “It’s good life advice, actually.”

...at the same event, Cheney also said, “If you wouldn’t ... hire somebody to babysit your kids, you shouldn’t make that guy president of the United States.”

Who do I call to make this happen?
 
I know Rosenberg's project is actually called "Hopium" but it's hard to argue with his general analysis, given the backup he provides. It's just not really made any logical sense, when Trump continues to generally have at best neutral weeks out on the campaign trail and there's been no cataclysmic October surprise driving Harris into a ditch, that he's suddenly been surging all over the place. Rosenberg's point is that Harris seems to be leading but narrowly in the places that she needs to win, and the race stabilized back in August and hasn't really changed much since.

The one point of his that definitely serves as my personal hopium, and I think points back to one of the fundamentals of this election that some of us were pointing out over a year ago, is one of basic math. Harris has a problem with men voters and Trump has a problem with women voters. However, (a) the latter is much more significant than the former, and (b) there are more women and they vote at a higher rate. Whether there's enough variance in that from state to state to matter in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan remains to be seen. But it points to the theory that women's reproductive rights remains THE issue in this election. A year ago the question was whether Dobbs was enough of a motivating factor to overcome Biden's unpopularity and general sense of economic malaise in spite of macro indicators pointing upward, and now the question is whether Dobbs is enough of a motivating factor to overcome a lessened but still lingering sense of economic malaise combined with whether or not we're ready for a woman president.
 
I’m not so sure the margin of victory will matter much to the “true believers”
The question is how many are willing to take action. Jan 6th was a few thousand people willing to commit violence and for that folks gathered from around the nation. Most of those are now in jail. Around the country a few folks tried to actually protest, but AFAIK, nothing much happened with those protests and certainly no violence that I'm aware of.

I think the same is at risk this election. There simply aren't enough "useful idiots" that are willing to take the type of action that Trump wants. Look at far wider protests such as BLM, Tea Party protests, Vietnam war protests, pro-Gaza protests, etc. None of them (far, far larger than Trump's election protests) would have had a chance of changing much of anything in the government.

In addition, this time the police and other forces aren't going to be caught off-guard (or made to be off-guard).

I do worry about violence, because any injuries or loss of life would be horrible, but I don't think it's going to do much to change anything.
 
The question is how many are willing to take action. Jan 6th was a few thousand people willing to commit violence and for that folks gathered from around the nation. Most of those are now in jail. Around the country a few folks tried to actually protest, but AFAIK, nothing much happened with those protests and certainly no violence that I'm aware of.

I think the same is at risk this election. There simply aren't enough "useful idiots" that are willing to take the type of action that Trump wants. Look at far wider protests such as BLM, Tea Party protests, Vietnam war protests, pro-Gaza protests, etc. None of them (far, far larger than Trump's election protests) would have had a chance of changing much of anything in the government.

In addition, this time the police and other forces aren't going to be caught off-guard (or made to be off-guard).

I do worry about violence, because any injuries or loss of life would be horrible, but I don't think it's going to do much to change anything.
If Trump hopefully losses and his merry band of idiots does resort to violence, I do agree that I am more comfortable that Biden is president so will be prepared and will not hesitate to take action against them. Don't bring a knife to a gun fight. I am very, very against violence, but you do what you have to do.

That being said, if they were to riot like on Jan. 6, what would be their target this time? I don't think they would strike the same place twice. Attack what the perceive as some symbol of the left like NYT or WaPo? I'm guessing that buildings seen to represent groups they despise (certain religious and ethnic groups, planned parenthood, etc) would have extra security. I guess they would await orders from their leader. Who would make a very carefully crafted speech to incite chaos without being personally blamed. These people are completely irrational.
 
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