2024 U.S. Presidential election

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Calling back to some earlier posts, I received my PA mail-in ballot on Monday (10/7) and Kamala is listed first like she is supposed to be given our Democrat governor.

Also I live in a suburb of Harrisburg that is in the very large Cumberland County, which does not include the city of Harrisburg and is a lot of rural areas and some small-midsize cities. I only mention this because of the speculation in that article about voter enthusiasm. Not sure if the big cities like Philadelphia or Pittsburg received theirs yet.
 
Furniture said:
That 22 percentage point change in preference (from plus 31 percent for Trump in 2020 to plus 9 percent in this survey) could represent a swing of millions of votes

www.thebulwark.com

EXCLUSIVE: Poll Finds Large Chunk of Haley Voters Ready to Ditch Trump

Republican and independent backers of the former U.N. ambassador are far more open to voting Democratic than four years ago.
www.thebulwark.com www.thebulwark.com
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Haley received 4.3 million votes in the 2024 GOP primary. 22% of that total is just shy of a million (~960,000).
 
CrazyNotCrazie said:
Here's my airline experience from this summer. I was flying Southwest from LGA to ATL. I was in one of the later boarding groups (I very rarely fly Southwest) and there wasn't assigned seating. People generally prefer to sit near the front of the plane so that they can get off quicker. By the time I got on the plane, most people had to go to the back as the front was largely full. However, there was a seat available in roughly row four, but it required sitting next to a guy with a very loud MAGA hat. People were very purposely avoiding him to sit in row 30. And though this flight was originating in NYC (which tends to be very blue, though LGA also serves Long Island which has several red districts), there were clearly a lot of Georgians and others on it.

So there you have it.
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It appears that this Gsry Larson classic is due for an update.
 

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For the polling and forecasting data nerds, here's some interesting analysis from Nate Silver where he compares the election probabilities to those in late-game sports scenarios.

He states this:

"But the probabilities have, because the translation from the popular vote to the Electoral College follows the same baseball game principle. If she goes from a 2-point popular vote lead to a 3-point lead, Harris’s win probability zooms up from 28 percent to 59 percent."

www.natesilver.net

55/45 is a really close race

Life lessons from gambling about understanding election probabilities.
www.natesilver.net www.natesilver.net
 
SkyBrickey said:
Elon Musk, the richest man in the world and the owner of the most influential real-time mass media platform, is actively spreading disinformation about natural disasters, our government, FEMA in order to influence an election. This is how a nation falls...

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We are in the new “bread and circuses” phase of an empire without the bread and Trump and Co. leaning into the circuses.
 
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