2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

[acdevil]

Not sure where you are seeing this. Almost everyone I have read/seen says the Senate is almost a lock to go R - White House and House are up for grabs, with the most confidence around the Senate going Republican. There is almost zero chance that Hawley loses - I just did a quick google search and saw him up 50-40 as of two weeks ago, and I haven't followed the race closely but I don't think anything has really changed that. Cruz could flip but unlikely. Montana is going R. NJ and CA aren't worth discussing as they were assumed in the D column. You need to do it on a state by state basis (I don't have the bandwidth now) - I believe that it will likely be 52 or 51 to R.

Unfortunately I agree with this.

If there is a blue wave, there is an outside chance of holding serve/maybe gaining one, but that would mean there was a huge polling miss.

 

[nmduke2001]

Trump has finalized plans to hold a stop in Albuquerque on Halloween day. This stop seems really strange to me. NM is very blue with really no chance of changing to red. I read that apparently with Elon giving Trump much more Twitter coverage that the Trump campaign has decided that it doesn't really matter where Trump campaigns as long as he gets a 30 second sound bite to put on social media and coverage on cable news.

P.S. The Trump campaign owes the city of Albuquerque over $210k in unpaid bills from a rally he held during the last election cycle. Maybe he'll get served while here?

 

[moonpie23]

i was standing in line to early vote and a person from the gop tent asked me if i needed the gop guide to voting. I responed "no thank you" in such a way it was obvious that i was not his demographic. I had my duke hoodie on and after a few minutes, he approached me again and said "duke is having a good start in football this year" and it was so genuine and friendly that it kinda caught me off guard. we chatted a few min and the line started moving...

 

[duke2x]

I early voted on Saturday before the SMU game. I just got lucky and waited 3 minutes instead of the typical 1-2+ hours at every poll near me. Traversing the onslaught of last minute partisans, one asked me if I wanted to meet a candidate for President. Lo and behold Chase Oliver (L) was standing right there in my suburb in Wake County. I'm not sure why he thought this location was effective, but it was cool to see 1800's/1900's politics in action rather than rallies by the 2 major parties.

 

[PackMan97]

I early voted on Saturday before the SMU game. I waited 3 minutes instead of the typical 1-2+ hours at every poll near me. Traversing the onslaught of last minute partisans, one asked me if I wanted to meet a candidate for President. Lo and behold Chase Oliver (L) was standing right there in my suburb in Wake County. I'm not sure why he thought this location was effective, but it was cool to see 1800's/1900's politics in action rather than rallies by the 2 major parties.

The husband of one of the local candidates was at my polling place. I agree, it's nice to see the personal touch.

 

[HoKogan]

Trump has finalized plans to hold a stop in Albuquerque on Halloween day. This stop seems really strange to me. NM is very blue with really no chance of changing to red. I read that apparently with Elon giving Trump much more Twitter coverage that the Trump campaign has decided that it doesn't really matter where Trump campaigns as long as he gets a 30 second sound bite to put on social media and coverage on cable news.

P.S. The Trump campaign owes the city of Albuquerque over $210k in unpaid bills from a rally he held during the last election cycle. Maybe he'll get served while here?

I'd be curious how many unpaid venue rentals he still has outstanding from the past 2 election cycles. Maybe tariffs will cover that.

 

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This might be better served in the Hurricane Helene thread, but our nonstop flow of disaster photo op politicians continues. Tim Walz will be in Asheville tomorrow. This is after President Biden, Trump, and Jill Biden have all toured our devestation and snarled traffic and relief efforts (yes, relief efforts are still very very busy).

The first Biden trip was shortly after the storm and was mostly a fly over. But both Trump and Dr. Biden visited last week and left our area gridlocked for hours. People in town are extremely frustrated by these ghoulish political tours, and leaving folks stranded on interstates is not what our community needs right now.

Walz is coming in the evening, so the hope is that he won't obstruct commutes or the busiest time of supplies flowing up the interstate. But seeing this perspective on how a well-meaning visit can cause such upheaval in a fragile population is pretty stark.

I will say that when Buttegieg and Cooper visited, it seemed to be a negligible impact. Less security I suppose.

Just venting.

 

[Bostondevil]

I was in Salem, New Hampshire a week ago. It's a border town with Massachusetts. It's a well known phenomenon that many Republican leaning Massachusetts natives move just across the border into New Hampshire but still work in Massachusetts. As I drove along one residential street, I saw a lot of Trump signs. It seemed like a lot of Trump support until I realized that it was just one house, on a corner, with enormous signs positioned to be visible from multiple directions. As I drove along, I saw a couple more houses with giant Trump signs. There were Harris/Walz signs too. They were smaller and in front of more houses. So, size and number of signs? Advantage Trump. Number of different houses with signs? Advantage Harris. Most of the Trump signs were Trump signs and not Trump/Vance signs.

 

[JasonEvans]

Maybe tariffs will cover that.

This is the kind of snarky reply we don't need in the thread at this time. I get that it was an attempt at humor but I am urging all of you to be a bit more vigilant. Please stick to analysis as much as you can.

No infraction at this time, just a warning for everyone to see and understand.

Thanks.

 

[CDu]

Not sure where you are seeing this. Almost everyone I have read/seen says the Senate is almost a lock to go R - White House and House are up for grabs, with the most confidence around the Senate going Republican. There is almost zero chance that Hawley loses - I just did a quick google search and saw him up 50-40 as of two weeks ago, and I haven't followed the race closely but I don't think anything has really changed that. Cruz could flip but unlikely. Montana is going R. NJ and CA aren't worth discussing as they were assumed in the D column. You need to do it on a state by state basis (I don't have the bandwidth now) - I believe that it will likely be 52 or 51 to R.

Yep. The Dems are losing the seat in WV for sure. So they are already starting with a -1. Montana isn't looking great for them either, which would be a -2. That would mean that in order to extend their majority (inclusive of indepedents), the Dems would have to pick up 3 seats from the Rs and to not lose any of the others. The only candidates there are NE (Osborn [IND, so not truly a Dem] running close with the incumbent), TX (Allred running close with Cruz), and...

Hawley is very unlikely to lose. Rick Scott would presumably be the next most likely to lose, but FL has drifted more conservative over the last 6 years since he was elected in a nail biter).

I'd say the Dems have a puncher's chance at maintaining the majority, but I'd put at least 2:1 and reasonably 3:1 odds in favor of the Rs for the Senate. It just isn't a great map for Dems in the Senate this year; much more on the defensive than offensive in these races.

 

[SouthernDukie]

Another twist: Ballot boxes in Washington and Oregon were set on fire yesterday by what appears to be the same individual.

Fires set in drop boxes destroy hundreds of ballots in Washington and damage 3 in Oregon

Incendiary devices have been set off at two ballot drop boxes — one in Portland, Oregon, and another in nearby Vancouver, Washington — in what one official called a “direct attack on democracy."

apnews.com

 

[HoKogan]

This is the kind of snarky reply we don't need in the thread at this time. I get that it was an attempt at humor but I am urging all of you to be a bit more vigilant. Please stick to analysis as much as you can.

No infraction at this time, just a warning for everyone to see and understand.

Thanks.

OK at least that sets a visible guideline. And yes, it was an attempt at humor.

 

[PackMan97]

I will say that when Buttegieg and Cooper visited, it seemed to be a negligible impact. Less security I suppose.

Just venting.

+1

Neither a Cabinet member nor the Governor cause the shutdown of roads that a President (or I guess VP/former President) would. I get that their time is valuable and that's its a safety issue (as in, folks would act like idiots trying to get close the to the motorcade to wave, take a picture, flip them off, whatever) so it's probably for the best, but I share your frustration. One would think they could get a helicopter to take them around to avoid issues with the roads?

Best of luck to your recovery. It's amazing to checkout google maps and see the volume of roads that are still closed (and will be closed).

 

[Furniture]

I was in Winston-Salem, NC over the weekend. I grew up here and it has historically been a pretty conservative town. I was surprised at the inordinate number of Harris/Walz signs along main roads and in neighborhoods in comparison to the very sparse amount of Trump signs. One Trump sign even had duct tape under the bottom of his name which I thought was pretty funny. Inflation has affected sign purchases.

Winston Salem is fairly artsy which tends to point to a more Democratic base. Then there are the University’s like Wake Forest and The NC School of the Arts which is one of the best in the country. Downtown is mostly independent restaurants too. It’s votes majority Democrat.

Winston-Salem, NC Politics & Voting

Best Places to Live | Compare cost of living, crime, cities, schools and more.

www.bestplaces.net

 

[jv001]

I early voted on Saturday before the SMU game. I just got lucky and waited 3 minutes instead of the typical 1-2+ hours at every poll near me. Traversing the onslaught of last minute partisans, one asked me if I wanted to meet a candidate for President. Lo and behold Chase Oliver (L) was standing right there in my suburb in Wake County. I'm not sure why he thought this location was effective, but it was cool to see 1800's/1900's politics in action rather than rallies by the 2 major parties.

My wife and I voted by mail this year. The first time ever for either of us. I was pleased the way it was handled. Voters have to include a picture ID, a signed form with address for the voter and another signed form for 2 witnesses, with their address. It sure beats standing in line on election day.

 

[duke79]

I was in Salem, New Hampshire a week ago. It's a border town with Massachusetts. It's a well known phenomenon that many Republican leaning Massachusetts natives move just across the border into New Hampshire but still work in Massachusetts. As I drove along one residential street, I saw a lot of Trump signs. It seemed like a lot of Trump support until I realized that it was just one house, on a corner, with enormous signs positioned to be visible from multiple directions. As I drove along, I saw a couple more houses with giant Trump signs. There were Harris/Walz signs too. They were smaller and in front of more houses. So, size and number of signs? Advantage Trump. Number of different houses with signs? Advantage Harris. Most of the Trump signs were Trump signs and not Trump/Vance signs.

Yea, the hardcore MAGA ain’t voting for JD.

 

[Kdogg]

Took my parents and we cast three votes today in SC. Yeah for American Democracy. I'm pretty sure I was the youngest person in line and I'm in my late forties. It took about 45 minutes. It's possible this election becomes one of it not the most participated elections in US history. All last week this polling location had a line out the door. Thought it would be less today but it wasn't. It's like that across the county and this is in a state and county that's not going to be close.

 

[Bostondevil]

In the last few days there have been lots of Trump ads on tv. At first I was mystified and then I remembered New Hampshire. I am not impressed with the ads, they don't seem to be aimed at the local persuadables. From what I know about local Republicans, transgender issues are not their bete noire. Anti-immigration ads would be more effective around here.

 

[CrazyNotCrazie]

This might be better served in the Hurricane Helene thread, but our nonstop flow of disaster photo op politicians continues. Tim Walz will be in Asheville tomorrow. This is after President Biden, Trump, and Jill Biden have all toured our devestation and snarled traffic and relief efforts (yes, relief efforts are still very very busy).

The first Biden trip was shortly after the storm and was mostly a fly over. But both Trump and Dr. Biden visited last week and left our area gridlocked for hours. People in town are extremely frustrated by these ghoulish political tours, and leaving folks stranded on interstates is not what our community needs right now.

Walz is coming in the evening, so the hope is that he won't obstruct commutes or the busiest time of supplies flowing up the interstate. But seeing this perspective on how a well-meaning visit can cause such upheaval in a fragile population is pretty stark.

I will say that when Buttegieg and Cooper visited, it seemed to be a negligible impact. Less security I suppose.

Just venting.

I'm sorry you are having to deal with this. Unfortunately, it is a no win situation. I recall politicians/candidates getting bad press for not visiting quickly enough. Then when they actually do visit they are being part of the problem, rather than a solution to the problem. Unfortunately, the correct answer of "I am very concerned about what is happening and will do everything I can do to help and staying away is one way I can help" is not acceptable to many people, particularly when they are predisposed to dislike that person to begin with.

Best of luck and please keep us posted. I hope things are getting better.

 

[PackMan97]

Winston Salem is fairly artsy which tends to point to a more Democratic base. Then there are the University’s like Wake Forest and The NC School of the Arts which is one of the best in the country. Downtown is mostly independent restaurants too. It’s votes majority Democrat.

Winston-Salem, NC Politics & Voting

Best Places to Live | Compare cost of living, crime, cities, schools and more.

www.bestplaces.net

Most cities above a certain size tend to vote Democrat. I've often wondered what is the largest city in the country that is solidly Republican? I think in NC, probably the largest R city would be Jacksonville which I think is just inside the top 15 cities in NC.

Nationally, I'm not certain. You can pretty much look up any political map sorted by districts and pick out the cities by the urban blue dots in a sea of rural red.