2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week
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Some final swing state Marist polls out yesterday. Harris gains/maintains slight (within m.o.e.) lead in each of PA (50-48), WI (50-48) and MI (51-48), gaining a point or two in the first two since their September poll, dropping one point of lead in Michigan.
The note of interest, to me at least, was a September to October swing among independents in Pennsylvania, going from T+4 to H+15. Not sure how a 19 point movement in independent voters didn't have a larger overall effect, though.
The note of interest, to me at least, was a September to October swing among independents in Pennsylvania, going from T+4 to H+15. Not sure how a 19 point movement in independent voters didn't have a larger overall effect, though.
bundabergdevil
Member
I think it’s a combo of him always being a poor organizer and relying on organic messianic passion in his followers. Someone is definitely dropping the signs in public spaces on my area for trump and Harris. Have yet to see any canvassers for either side but expect to get a knock this weekend (we’re also out with the kids a lot).
SouthernDukie
Member
I've heard the same for several of the swing states.
OldPhiKap
Super Moderator
It may also be that Laura Trump has no experience running political operations, and they spent a good part of their money on legal fees instead of ground troops.
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Bostondevil
Well-known member
NPR did a story almost 2 years ago now about how some Trump advisors (IIRC, Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller were mentioned) were instructing Trump loyalists on how they could push long time lower level Republican Party officials out. Their expressed goal was to get rid of the people who had been around a long time, had the experience and know how, but were more loyal to the party and the election process than they were to Trump. I thought at the time, "That will come back to bite them in the ____." The kind of people that are going to be good at organizing ground game at the local level are the same kind of people that are going to be good at running the PTO. Getting teams of volunteers together to canvas door to door is the same skill set as running a successful school fair. When loyalty to Trump and not experience gets you the position, you probably aren't going to be good at it.
If Trump wins, Trump loyalists will be running the NIH and the CDC. Good luck.
acdevil
Member
I think a lot of the GOTV was originally farmed out to TPUSA (I think it’s this conservative org, but I could be wrong) but they could only really do Arizona (where they are from). Then it was outsourced to others where my guess is that it is hampered by the grift involved and also by the downside of having paid GOTV operatives - fraud.
Chicago 1995
Member
Again, it matters how much of the early voting is cannibalizing the election day voting. Could be better for Harris for sure, but it's not definitive.
And applying the same logic to other states based on early voting numbers paints a rough picture for DJT.
acdevil
Member
All valid points. But I’d remind everyone - Ralston is as good as it gets in Nevada.
Bostondevil
Well-known member
Another thought about canvassers. The ones that come to my door are either young people or women. Trump's team may be having a hard time finding people willing to canvas. I'm not saying men don't do it, but I don't see them very often. The only times a man over 30 has ever canvassed at my door - they were the candidate (local elections only).
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
I guess this is kosher. It sure as heck is funny.
Kid playing Trump for Halloween really nails it. Kid should be hired by SNL.
Kid playing Trump for Halloween really nails it. Kid should be hired by SNL.
Yeah but it’s just math at some point. If the GOP builds up a big enough lead, it makes it extremely hard for the dems to come back unless turnout is enormous or indys break hard to the left. Ralston is the best of the best and has absolutely nailed the election coverage of Nevada for the longest time.
Also, have you read the blog I posted? Ralston gets into this.
“The GOP cannibalization is real: 52,000 GOP voters who last voted on Election Day have voted early (after encouragement from Trump and local GOP officials) but only 19,000 in the same Dem cohort have voted early. In Clark, it is 33,000 Repubs and 14,000 Dem”
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Bostondevil
Well-known member
I wonder how much the fire has affected the voter turnout in Nevada. Oops, got a couple of news stories confused - never mind. It was a house fire not a wildfire.
CrazyNotCrazie
Member
I was on the subway in NYC yesterday eavesdropping on a conversation between two guys in their late 30s who were talking about driving to PA for the day Saturday or Sunday to do doorknocking. Agree that it is more often women but please don't write off men.
wavedukefan70s
Member
We have a similar experience. Ive noticed that if you have a American flag some skip or
Make sure to stop. I don't see where that defines a political stance here considering we have a decent sized military presence from joint base charleston.a lot of military familys fly it. It may be perceived differently in other locations.
We have Harris signs with the flag .
I need to find a flag that stops solicitation period .the signs don't seem to work.
My favorite political sign my nieghbor has.
President's come and go.
Wu tang is for ever.
Wutang 24.
acdevil
Member
Agree, but I would think women and older people would be better because the whole man vs bear debate.
Chicago 1995
Member
No doubt.
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