2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election


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Trump and his team have been going after the bros. But those bros ain’t voting.

“In Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote, according to POLITICO’s analysis and data from the University of Florida’s United States Election Project”.

“A recent ABC/Ipsos poll shows Harris with a 19 percentage point lead among suburban women, up from 10 points in October and now-President Joe Bidens’ six-point lead in 2020. At the same time, Harris has cut Trump’s 27-point margin of victory in 2020 with white women without a college degree in half, a recent Marist Poll shows”.


#imwithsteven
Thank you for this, as it’s exactly the type of data that forecasts a Harris victory. When a poll asks someone for whom they would vote that’s all well and good, but you have to actually take the time and make the effort to go to the polls and complete the process. And that’s where Harris has the edge — actual voter participation.
 
Trump and his team have been going after the bros. But those bros ain’t voting.

“In Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote, according to POLITICO’s analysis and data from the University of Florida’s United States Election Project”.

“A recent ABC/Ipsos poll shows Harris with a 19 percentage point lead among suburban women, up from 10 points in October and now-President Joe Bidens’ six-point lead in 2020. At the same time, Harris has cut Trump’s 27-point margin of victory in 2020 with white women without a college degree in half, a recent Marist Poll shows”.


#imwithsteven
The voting gap (according to polls) between college-educated women and non-college educated men is a staggering 43 points! That is, college-educated women are +27 for Harris, and non-college educated men are +16 for Trump. In 2008 (Obama-McCain), college-educated women actually voted Republican MORE than non-college educated men. It was with Trump's arrival in 2016 that this chasm really was formed but this year may be even larger than that.

I realize your link is about gender gap in showing up to vote which is also important given the voting preference differences. The male-female gap alone is "only" 17%, though. It's really when you look at education level that it becomes huge. In fact, the college educated vs. non-college educated gap is 29%, which is significantly larger than the gender gap. When you combine both factors, it magnifies it further. Dems need to "get out the college-educated vote" moreso than "get out the female vote" if polls are to be believed although both are important for them.

I would assume that college-educated voters are more likely to vote historically which polls likely account for. Dems likely have ground game operations at large universities in swing states - NC included.

 
Here's an interesting piece about how to watch the TV coverage next Tuesday, and look for clues in early returns in states such as Indiana and Kentucky to get an idea of the likely outcome.


Personally, I plan to turn off all media and curl up in a fetal position until at least Wednesday, and perhaps longer.
 
Personally, I plan to turn off all media and curl up in a fetal position until at least Wednesday, and perhaps longer.
Same. I’m activating “Duke/Smurfs in the Final Four” focus on my devices and hoping for a better result this time.
 
What is going on with his right leg? I don’t expect a 78 year old man to have a particularly easy time climbing into a truck - I’m 50 and I’d probably not look smooth
Doing it - but that motion his leg made was… my grandmother had a huge stroke in her 40s and dragged her leg like that thereafter.
Might also be back-related issues. Nerve damage down into his leg. My gait looks odd now that my left foot doesn't work for that reason.
 
If anyone is interested in my favorite state of Nevada, even though I no longer live there, you can check out Ralston’s blog. He is the best in the business with this early vote stuff. The picture is becoming clearer by the day in the silver state. #HomeMeansNevada

“Essentially the entire GOP lead is in the rurals, which are turning out significantly higher than Clark's 41 percent, except for Lyon, which also happens to be the largest rural vote source. The rurals continue to punch above their weight by more than 3 points while Clark is down 4 relative to voter reg and Washoe is up 1. This dynamic will change once the urban mail gets counted, but that is a substantial lead for the Repubs.”

The question there, like it is a number of other places, is how much this cannibalizes the election day vote.
 
Here's an interesting piece about how to watch the TV coverage next Tuesday, and look for clues in early returns in states such as Indiana and Kentucky to get an idea of the likely outcome.


Personally, I plan to turn off all media and curl up in a fetal position until at least Wednesday, and perhaps longer.
I wish the Duke game was Tuesday instead of Monday. That would be a nice distraction.
 
Here's an interesting piece about how to watch the TV coverage next Tuesday, and look for clues in early returns in states such as Indiana and Kentucky to get an idea of the likely outcome.


Personally, I plan to turn off all media and curl up in a fetal position until at least Wednesday, and perhaps longer.
an available array of intoxicants could be valuable, too. May not go outside for several days.
 
When was the last time a large percentage of the voters were impressed with one of the candidates for president? Obama in 2008, maybe? I really can’t think of any other examples in my lifetime.

"Among the 12 presidential nominees since 2004, only Barack Obama (2008 and 2012), McCain (2008) and George W. Bush (2004) have reached the 60%+ positive threshold."

It used to be commonplace, even for the losing candidate:
"Historically, most presidential candidates have had positive ratings of 60% or higher. This includes several losing candidates such as Adlai Stevenson in 1956, Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 and John McCain in 2008."

Of course, 60% may be an arbitrary boundary. The last 70%+ candidate was Reagan in 1984.

Clearly, there's been a downward trend in recent history. Kerry in 2004 at 57% as a losing candidate is considerably better than Trump and Harris right now.
 
When was the last time a large percentage of the voters were impressed with one of the candidates for president? Obama in 2008, maybe? I really can’t think of any other examples in my lifetime.
I guess Packman answered better than I could. I do think this Presidential election has more hate from both sides. Not only for the candidates, but also the candidate's supporters. I'm not saying that applies to all the supporters, but it seems to be worse than I can ever remember. That's sad.
 
I guess Packman answered better than I could. I do think this Presidential election has more hate from both sides. Not only for the candidates, but also the candidate's supporters. I'm not saying that applies to all the supporters, but it seems to be worse than I can ever remember. That's sad.
100% true. Was just reading this article, which I think has some small bearing on your point.

 
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