2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

[wavedukefan70s]

I'm on board, let's ban all a-salt weapons. My kids asked me what a salt weapon was, I showed them this video.

I had that it doesn't work very well .even with the double barrel. I swear that fly gave me the stank eye and flew off.

 

[OldPhiKap]

Beatles or Stones? Ginger or Mary Ann?

The Who. Lovey.

 

[OldPhiKap]

And also Ruth-Ann and Lynn.

I don’t care if they’re second cousins to me.

 

[Steven43]

Beatles or Stones? Ginger or Mary Ann?

All of the above!

 

[nmduke2001]

I’m not going to post it but the Trump campaign painted a trash truck with Trump campaign signage and it picked up DJT on the tarmac. The video is concerning. Trump is seriously struggling as he tries to get in the truck. He nearly falls down. Wonder if this will be covered like Biden’s fitness or Hillary’s flu?

 

[jipops]

Before anyone complains, this is the most civil discussion we've had on an election thread in over a decade.

Yeah, reminds me of that scene in Don’t Look Up where that group is having dinner together and laughing as the world is about to end.

Whoops!

 

[jipops]

Still very normal things happening up to election day.

Insight: In U.S. swing states, officials brace for conspiracy theories and violence — Reuters

With the U.S. election just days away, officials in the most competitive battleground states are bracing for misinformation, conspiracy theories, threats and possible violence.

apple.news

 

[jipops]

I’m not going to post it but the Trump campaign painted a trash truck with Trump campaign signage and it picked up DJT on the tarmac. The video is concerning. Trump is seriously struggling as he tries to get in the truck. He nearly falls down. Wonder if this will be covered like Biden’s fitness or Hillary’s flu?

Well, one media outlet is covering it but telling its audience to see something different.

Aaron Rupar (@aaron.rupar) on Threads

This is wild. Hannity praises Trump's "iconic, epic moment" of getting into a garbage truck above a clip of Trump having what appears to be a minor medical event and nearly falling over.

www.threads.net

I think he just slipped a little. It’s not like he’s in the best shape. Though he has been dragging that leg a good bit lately.

 

[Furniture]

I’m not going to post it but the Trump campaign painted a trash truck with Trump campaign signage and it picked up DJT on the tarmac. The video is concerning. Trump is seriously struggling as he tries to get in the truck. He nearly falls down. Wonder if this will be covered like Biden’s fitness or Hillary’s flu?

I am in my 60’s and worked in Engineering for a heavy duty trucking company for most of my career. In the last few years it was not that easy for me to climb in and out of those vehicles and I am pretty active and used to it. Trump is almost 80. I have seen the video and it’s a nothing burger imho. Of course if I am the Democratic campaign I would make an issue of it.
Thinking through this has made me think of an incident in my past. One of the engineers in my team was doing some ergonomic studies for a new vehicle we were developing and one rather large truck driver, a 95 percentile male slipped as he was climbing into our Cab buck. He fell on the Engineers leg and completely broke it. I heard the scream as I was walking by the workshop. Ouch! What’s the point? Even experienced truck drivers can have difficulty.

 

[nmduke2001]

I am in my 60’s and worked in Engineering for a heavy duty trucking company for most of my career. In the last few years it was not that easy for me to climb in and out of those vehicles and I am pretty active and used to it. Trump is almost 80. I have seen the video and it’s a nothing burger imho. Of course if I am the Democratic campaign I would make an issue of it.
Thinking through this has made me think of an incident in my past. One of the engineers in my team was doing some ergonomic studies for a new vehicle we were developing and one rather large truck driver, a 95 percentile male slipped as he was climbing into our Cab buck. He fell on the Engineers leg and completely broke it. I heard the scream as I was walking by the workshop. Ouch! What’s the point? Even experienced truck drivers can have difficulty.

It’s not the actual getting in the truck part. It’s the trying to open the door part. He misses the handle three times and then his leg comes out from under him.

 

[Bluedog]

Seems like PA's latest polling has ever so slightly shifted towards Trump (+1) whereas NV (Even) and NC (Trump <1) are tightening further according to the NY Times. Certainly, this is a ridiculously close one even if the EV totals don't end up being that close. It does seem possible under certain circumstances that Trump could win the popular vote and lose the electoral college -- something seen as impossible just a couple of months ago.

Kamala really needs WI/MI/NV and then one of PA (276 EVs) or NC (273 EVs). Trump's best path seems to simply win PA and NC -- that would put him in the White House at 281 EVs. He could also do PA + NV and lose NC to get 271. He has no path if loses PA basically. Unfortunately, PA is going to take forever to count so I suspect oddsmakers would put the odds of us knowing the president at the end of Tuesday night as a <50% proposition unless polling is skewed one direction. We'll be able to see if WI/MI are aligned to polling which could give us insights into how PA might go.

For people who don't care about the outcome and are more political junkies about the numbers, this could be a fun affair. For most of America, however, it is not....

 

[Chicago 1995]

Seems like PA's latest polling has ever so slightly shifted towards Trump (+1) whereas NV (Even) and NC (Trump <1) are tightening further according to the NY Times. Certainly, this is a ridiculously close one even if the EV totals don't end up being that close. It does seem possible under certain circumstances that Trump could win the popular vote and lose the electoral college -- something seen as impossible just a couple of months ago.

Kamala really needs WI/MI/NV and then one of PA (276 EVs) or NC (273 EVs). Trump's best path seems to simply win PA and NC -- that would put him in the White House at 281 EVs. He could also do PA + NV and lose NC to get 271. He has no path if loses PA basically. Unfortunately, PA is going to take forever to count so I suspect oddsmakers would put the odds of us knowing the president at the end of Tuesday night as a <50% proposition unless polling is skewed one direction. We'll be able to see if WI/MI are aligned to polling which could give us insights into how PA might go.

For people who don't care about the outcome and are more political junkies about the numbers, this could be a fun affair. For most of America, however, it is not....

There are some oddities with that PA poll, but putting that aside, Trump's post on Truth alleging rampant cheating in PA along with his bailing on an appearance at Penn State - Ohio State on Saturday (to go to Virginia?) might suggest that Trump's not getting great news from his internals in PA.

Who the he** knows.

 

[wavedukefan70s]

I am in my 60’s and worked in Engineering for a heavy duty trucking company for most of my career. In the last few years it was not that easy for me to climb in and out of those vehicles and I am pretty active and used to it. Trump is almost 80. I have seen the video and it’s a nothing burger imho. Of course if I am the Democratic campaign I would make an issue of it.
Thinking through this has made me think of an incident in my past. One of the engineers in my team was doing some ergonomic studies for a new vehicle we were developing and one rather large truck driver, a 95 percentile male slipped as he was climbing into our Cab buck. He fell on the Engineers leg and completely broke it. I heard the scream as I was walking by the workshop. Ouch! What’s the point? Even experienced truck drivers can have difficulty.

I've seen that a lot in my former profession.
If we hit 60 we usually retire .we have the option at 55 with 25 years if you dont have 28 at a reduced rate.being in my 50s
I was feeling it a little .climbing ladders or anywhere that requires 3 points of contact is a young persons game.55 was my goal .

 

[dudog84]

Re the stumbling, I find it much more interesting how, just as the "Puerto Rico is garbage" kerfuffle was dying down, he doubles down. Bold strategy.

 

[A-Tex Devil]

Seems like PA's latest polling has ever so slightly shifted towards Trump (+1) whereas NV (Even) and NC (Trump <1) are tightening further according to the NY Times. Certainly, this is a ridiculously close one even if the EV totals don't end up being that close. It does seem possible under certain circumstances that Trump could win the popular vote and lose the electoral college -- something seen as impossible just a couple of months ago.

Kamala really needs WI/MI/NV and then one of PA (276 EVs) or NC (273 EVs). Trump's best path seems to simply win PA and NC -- that would put him in the White House at 281 EVs. He could also do PA + NV and lose NC to get 271. He has no path if loses PA basically. Unfortunately, PA is going to take forever to count so I suspect oddsmakers would put the odds of us knowing the president at the end of Tuesday night as a <50% proposition unless polling is skewed one direction. We'll be able to see if WI/MI are aligned to polling which could give us insights into how PA might go.

For people who don't care about the outcome and are more political junkies about the numbers, this could be a fun affair. For most of America, however, it is not....

If Kamala gets WI and MI and then PA and everything else stays to form, she wins without the sunbelt states.

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

 

[LasVegas]

If Kamala gets WI and MI and then PA and everything else stays to form, she wins without the sunbelt states.

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

Yeah. I’ve been saying for awhile that it’s all about PA. I really don’t see a path for Harris that doesn’t include PA and the same for Trump. It’s a one state battle.

 

[Bluedog]

Yeah. I’ve been saying for awhile that it’s all about PA. I really don’t see a path for Harris that doesn’t include PA and the same for Trump. It’s a one state battle.

Agree but Kamala does have a path with NV + NC, which is possible. Trump doesn't have as likely of a path without PA really (seems unlikely he'd get WI or MI and not PA, but I guess it's possible).

And yes A-Tex Devil, you're certainly right. Kamala doesn't need NV if she takes PA. But that one district in Nebraska becomes all important and I'm sure she'd be happy about all the ads spent there if she gets exactly 270....that certainly is a possible scenario too. Republicans tried to get Nebraska to change their law before the election to be winner takes all, but the Republican elected official didn't want to make that change so late in the game.

 

[CameronBornAndBred]

Yeah. I’ve been saying for awhile that it’s all about PA. I really don’t see a path for Harris that doesn’t include PA and the same for Trump. It’s a one state battle.

It's very hard to say you're wrong. I'm not sure you're right, but still. Long story short, one would think that a national election coming down to a state far from Montana, far from California, far from Alabama, far from Colorado, far from 90% of the rest of the United States would provide impetus to discard the Electoral College.

It won't.

 

[LasVegas]

Agree but Kamala does have a path with NV + NC, which is possible. Trump doesn't have as likely of a path without PA really (seems unlikely he'd get WI or MI and not PA, but I guess it's possible).

And yes A-Tex Devil, you're certainly right. Kamala doesn't need NV if she takes PA. But that one district in Nebraska becomes all important and I'm sure she'd be happy about all the ads spent there if she gets exactly 270....that certainly is a possible scenario too. Republicans tried to get Nebraska to change their law before the election to be winner takes all, but the Republican elected official didn't want to make that change so late in the game.

I put the chance of Harris losing PA and winning NV and NC at about 1%. I just don’t see it happening even with Mark Robinson on the ballot.

 

[JasonEvans]

Nate Silver's model says PA and NC are the two biggest tipping point states and agrees that if she wins either of them, she's close to a lock.