Way-Too-Early Projected Lineups and Stat Lines for the 2024-2025 Season

[MChambers]

Jason, I think you are dead wrong about Proctor. Yes, his scoring and shooting were a little disappointing last year, especially in the last game. I can't argue that, but I don't think it is fair to focus on the last game and not acknowledge that he was key to Duke's win over Houston, with his defense. He was also Duke's best perimeter defender and distributor. I think he's the closest thing we have to a coach on the floor.

Also, you are forgetting or ignoring that Proctor had two fairly significant injuries last year – the sprained ankle and the concussion. Both caused him to miss some time. Scheyer said after the season that the ankle bothered Proctor all season.

I'll acknowledge that the NBA seemed to lose interest in Proctor. I wouldn't be surprised that all the sea that interest rekindled this season.

 

[AGDukesky]

I would agree that Proctor did not step forward last year like I thought he would, but he was a solid point guard (as he was as a freshman) and a top-level defender. I expect Sion James to spell him at times, but I don't see Proctor playing less than 30 minutes a game if he's healthy.

He also was injured twice including early in the season where he missed valuable reps and was playing catchup all season.

 

[DallasDevil]

Not singling Luke out for the above as I have seen a lot lot lot of people say the same thing he wrote. But I do want to point out one thing --

I am not entirely convinced that Proctor and Foster will "play a lot" next season. They were both somewhat disappointing last year and need to make improvements to justify big minutes on this extremely talented and deep squad.

Proctor came into his soph campaign as a likely lottery pick (some had him pegged in the top 5 of the lottery). CBS had him ranked among the top 25 players in the sport. He didn't even sniff honorable mention All-ACC. His stats were largely the same as his freshman year and to say he was up and down would be an understatement -- I mean, dude ended his year by shooting 0-9 against NC State. If he does not take a step up from what we have seen for two years, he does not deserve to play 30 minutes per game.

Caleb Foster was invisible at times. He had a usage rate of 16%, far and away the lowest of any of our top 6 players. He had more games where he scored 5 points or less than games where he cracked double-digits. Sure, he hit 40.6% of his 3s, but his 2pt FG% was 45.9%, easily the worst of any of the top 8 players. I mean, given that maybe it is good that he basically did nothing on offense for the most part.

Why are we just assuming that Foster is going to start and play big minutes when Sion James was a vastly superior player a year ago and plays largely the same position?

If Ty and Caleb have improved over last season... if they play the way their reputations indicate they can... then will absolutely be major players for this team. But if they are mostly the players we saw just a few months ago, Duke likely has better options on the roster.

Am I dead wrong about their play a year ago? Feel free to call me out.

Didn't we basically lose Roach and McCain at guard and replace them with James? Even if Proctor and Foster only play as well as they did last year, I would expect them to get the same or more minutes this year. I hear you on the NC State game, but Proctor's defense against Houston was critical in getting Duke to the Elite Eight. Plus, they are our only returning players. And I don't see any reason why we can't reasonably expect improvement from both of them after a seemingly healthy summer working with the staff. Proctor's numbers last year were better than Nolan Smith's sophomore campaign, which preceded Nolan averaging over 17 ppg en route to a national championship. Foster's play was better than Quinn Cook's freshman year, which Quinn followed up with an 11 and 5 sophomore year playing over 33 minutes per game. If it turns out the coaches don't feel that Proctor and Foster are good enough to be on the court, I don't think that bodes well for Duke's season.

 

[JasonEvans]

Jason, I think you are dead wrong about Proctor. Yes, his scoring and shooting were a little disappointing last year, especially in the last game. I can't argue that, but I don't think it is fair to focus on the last game and not acknowledge that he was key to Duke's win over Houston, with his defense. He was also Duke's best perimeter defender and distributor. I think he's the closest thing we have to a coach on the floor.

Also, you are forgetting or ignoring that Proctor had two fairly significant injuries last year – the sprained ankle and the concussion. Both caused him to miss some time. Scheyer said after the season that the ankle bothered Proctor all season.

I'll acknowledge that the NBA seemed to lose interest in Proctor. I wouldn't be surprised that all the sea that interest rekindled this season.

It wasn't just that NC State game though.

Against Wake on Feb 12 he played 25 minutes and did not score a point while collecting a grand total of 2 assists.
In the first loss to UNC on Feb 3 - 26mp, 2 points, 1-6 FGs, 2 assists
Jan 9th against Pitt (a game we wont in a blow out) - 24mp, 3 points, 1-6FGs, 5asst but 3 TOs
Jan 6 versus ND - 22mp, 0 points, 0-4 shooting, 3 asst

How about the ACC tourney loss to NCState when he shot 4-16 from the field?
Or that Arkansas game where he was 3-13?

He had more than twice as many games with 2 assists or fewer (9 times) than games where he had more than 5 assists (4 times, 2 of which came against badly outmatched Dartmouth and Southern Indiana). He was the starting PG on one of the best teams in the conference and he was 9th in the league in avg asst per game.

Look, I would obviously love love love for Proctor to have a big season. I think a lot of folks are expecting him to be Duke's second best player this year. I'm just saying that when we project something like that, we are projecting it upon a kid who has not shown that level of production in two previous years at Duke.

One of two things much happen for Duke to be a real title contenders -- Either Proctor must get better or someone else needs to step up and play significant minutes at Proctor's expense (not saying he will be benched, but he cannot play 30 mpg like last season and play with the inconsistency he did last year).

 

[MChambers]

It wasn't just that NC State game though.

Against Wake on Feb 12 he played 25 minutes and did not score a point while collecting a grand total of 2 assists.
In the first loss to UNC on Feb 3 - 26mp, 2 points, 1-6 FGs, 2 assists
Jan 9th against Pitt (a game we wont in a blow out) - 24mp, 3 points, 1-6FGs, 5asst but 3 TOs
Jan 6 versus ND - 22mp, 0 points, 0-4 shooting, 3 asst

How about the ACC tourney loss to NCState when he shot 4-16 from the field?
Or that Arkansas game where he was 3-13?

He had more than twice as many games with 2 assists or fewer (9 times) than games where he had more than 5 assists (4 times, 2 of which came against badly outmatched Dartmouth and Southern Indiana). He was the starting PG on one of the best teams in the conference and he was 9th in the league in avg asst per game.

Look, I would obviously love love love for Proctor to have a big season. I think a lot of folks are expecting him to be Duke's second best player this year. I'm just saying that when we project something like that, we are projecting it upon a kid who has not shown that level of production in two previous years at Duke.

One of two things much happen for Duke to be a real title contenders -- Either Proctor must get better or someone else needs to step up and play significant minutes at Proctor's expense (not saying he will be benched, but he cannot play 30 mpg like last season and play with the inconsistency he did last year).

If Proctor has a healthy season, he'll be one of the top two or three players in minutes.

 

[bluedevilwildcats]

It wasn't just that NC State game though.

Against Wake on Feb 12 he played 25 minutes and did not score a point while collecting a grand total of 2 assists.
In the first loss to UNC on Feb 3 - 26mp, 2 points, 1-6 FGs, 2 assists
Jan 9th against Pitt (a game we wont in a blow out) - 24mp, 3 points, 1-6FGs, 5asst but 3 TOs
Jan 6 versus ND - 22mp, 0 points, 0-4 shooting, 3 asst

How about the ACC tourney loss to NCState when he shot 4-16 from the field?
Or that Arkansas game where he was 3-13?

He had more than twice as many games with 2 assists or fewer (9 times) than games where he had more than 5 assists (4 times, 2 of which came against badly outmatched Dartmouth and Southern Indiana). He was the starting PG on one of the best teams in the conference and he was 9th in the league in avg asst per game.

Look, I would obviously love love love for Proctor to have a big season. I think a lot of folks are expecting him to be Duke's second best player this year. I'm just saying that when we project something like that, we are projecting it upon a kid who has not shown that level of production in two previous years at Duke.

One of two things much happen for Duke to be a real title contenders -- Either Proctor must get better or someone else needs to step up and play significant minutes at Proctor's expense (not saying he will be benched, but he cannot play 30 mpg like last season and play with the inconsistency he did last year).

I think Proctor especially has a lot to prove this season. Jon was pretty transparent that after the NC State game, he decided to bring in folks who would help ensure that doesn't happen again. Proctor looked awful that game, pretty sure Jon was thinking of him (along with Roach).

And I agree with you on Foster as well. I think there are valid reasons Duke isn't ranked higher, and starting guards with PERs in the 13-15 range is one of the biggest reasons.

 

[azzefkram]

Not singling Luke out for the above as I have seen a lot lot lot of people say the same thing he wrote. But I do want to point out one thing --

I am not entirely convinced that Proctor and Foster will "play a lot" next season. They were both somewhat disappointing last year and need to make improvements to justify big minutes on this extremely talented and deep squad.

Proctor came into his soph campaign as a likely lottery pick (some had him pegged in the top 5 of the lottery). CBS had him ranked among the top 25 players in the sport. He didn't even sniff honorable mention All-ACC. His stats were largely the same as his freshman year and to say he was up and down would be an understatement -- I mean, dude ended his year by shooting 0-9 against NC State. If he does not take a step up from what we have seen for two years, he does not deserve to play 30 minutes per game.

Caleb Foster was invisible at times. He had a usage rate of 16%, far and away the lowest of any of our top 6 players. He had more games where he scored 5 points or less than games where he cracked double-digits. Sure, he hit 40.6% of his 3s, but his 2pt FG% was 45.9%, easily the worst of any of the top 8 players. I mean, given that maybe it is good that he basically did nothing on offense for the most part.

Why are we just assuming that Foster is going to start and play big minutes when Sion James was a vastly superior player a year ago and plays largely the same position?

If Ty and Caleb have improved over last season... if they play the way their reputations indicate they can... then will absolutely be major players for this team. But if they are mostly the players we saw just a few months ago, Duke likely has better options on the roster.

Am I dead wrong about their play a year ago? Feel free to call me out.

Dead wrong may be a bit excessive, but you're mistaken.

Proctor was better as a sophomore. How much better is up for debate, but he was undoubtedly a better player. He improved his ORTG (106.7-115.8), EFG (45.9-52.5), TS (50.4-54.5), AST (20.9-21.7), TO (17.9-13.5), 2P (.439-.521), and 3P (.320-.352). He shot the highest percentage in the paint of all Duke's guards (56.3% an improvement from 45.9%). The only area he was worse was FT (.871-.755). He was Duke's best point of attack defender. It wasn't a happy coincidence that RJ had some of his worst games against Duke. All this happened around an ankle injury and a concussion. Even if he stays the same, you would have a hard time proving that the roster has better options.

Caleb was invisible at times but that is entirely expected for, at best, fourth option. Caleb's opportunities to make his mark were few and far between. Couple that with an injury that took away the last quarter of his season (a time when season long improvement may show up) and it's not surprising that his impact was meh. Sion was better than Caleb last year but I wouldn't say vastly so. Tulane's competition is at least a step below Duke's and Sion was higher on pecking order at Tulane.

What Tyrese and Caleb both have that that none of the other options have is program continuity. That's big.

I think you can write in ink for Tyrese and Cooper to play 30+ minutes per game. I think you can write in ink for Khaman to play 25 minutes per game. I think you can write in erasable ink for Caleb and Maliq to play 25+ minutes per game. I would use a pencil for everyone else.

 

[scottdude8]

It wasn't just that NC State game though.

Against Wake on Feb 12 he played 25 minutes and did not score a point while collecting a grand total of 2 assists.
In the first loss to UNC on Feb 3 - 26mp, 2 points, 1-6 FGs, 2 assists
Jan 9th against Pitt (a game we wont in a blow out) - 24mp, 3 points, 1-6FGs, 5asst but 3 TOs
Jan 6 versus ND - 22mp, 0 points, 0-4 shooting, 3 asst

How about the ACC tourney loss to NCState when he shot 4-16 from the field?
Or that Arkansas game where he was 3-13?

He had more than twice as many games with 2 assists or fewer (9 times) than games where he had more than 5 assists (4 times, 2 of which came against badly outmatched Dartmouth and Southern Indiana). He was the starting PG on one of the best teams in the conference and he was 9th in the league in avg asst per game.

Look, I would obviously love love love for Proctor to have a big season. I think a lot of folks are expecting him to be Duke's second best player this year. I'm just saying that when we project something like that, we are projecting it upon a kid who has not shown that level of production in two previous years at Duke.

One of two things much happen for Duke to be a real title contenders -- Either Proctor must get better or someone else needs to step up and play significant minutes at Proctor's expense (not saying he will be benched, but he cannot play 30 mpg like last season and play with the inconsistency he did last year).

We had this debate on the pod at the beginning of the summer and I think it's a big one for our prospects this year. I happen to disagree with you here and fall in the camp that Proctor is ready to make a big leap. I think we too easily forget that Tyrese made a relatively late decision to reclass up: at 20 years old (with an April birthday) he's actually a couple months younger than Jared McCain.

Here's the thought experiment: if last year was Tyrese's freshman year rather than his sophomore year, would we be thinking differently about him entering this season? Would we be expecting the "sophomore leap" rather than worrying about his challenges down the stretch last year? Personally, I think so.

Here's the other thing: despite his offensive struggles, Tyrese was a constant defensively all season. Combine that with the reality that Jon has shown a propensity to lean on his favorite guards (albeit with only a two season dataset, and never with a squad as deep as this one), and I still think the most likely scenario is that Tyrese gets the reigns as our point guard and has a pretty long leash. Plus, with the potential offensive firepower that the freshmen class adds to this roster, Tyrese may not feel the pressure to score and create for himself that he often had to last year... perhaps he fits better as a facilitator that gets the ball in Cooper, Khaman, and K2/Slim's hands in the right spots and is a complementary scorer.

If we're making a pie bet on whether or not Tyrese plays 30+ mpg this year, I'm still confidently taking the over.

 

[azzefkram]

Here's the other thing: despite his offensive struggles, Tyrese was a constant defensively all season.

People keep writing this, but what offensive struggles did Tyrese have? He improved across the board. Would I have liked to see more improvement? Sure. Better 3P and FT shooting along with a stronger ability to put pressure on the rim are areas I hope he improves on. Tyrese did not struggle last season. Did he make the leap? Unfortunately no, but if he did we wouldn't be talking about what Tyrese can do for Duke this season.

 

[kAzE]

Not singling Luke out for the above as I have seen a lot lot lot of people say the same thing he wrote. But I do want to point out one thing --

I am not entirely convinced that Proctor and Foster will "play a lot" next season. They were both somewhat disappointing last year and need to make improvements to justify big minutes on this extremely talented and deep squad.

I think Proctor does play the vast majority of the available minutes at PG simply because of his defense, although it will be tough for the team if he can't improve on his shooting consistency. Luckily, I don't think we are going to to be forced to rely on him for offense as much as last year. He will be free to focus more of his energy at the point of attack defensively.

But I'm with you on Foster. I would have anticipated a lot more buzz about Caleb Foster, especially with a year of experience under his belt and a full offseason to improve. But instead, there's been more hype around Kon and Sion James coming out of early practices. I was never convinced that he should be pencilled in as a starter and 25+ minutes. There's just way too much competition on this roster. Jonathan Givony has 6 players on this Duke roster being drafted, and 4 of them are guards: Kon, Tyrese, Caleb, and Sion. I could see a lot of lineups with 3 of those 4 on the floor together, but I don't see Caleb as someone who is clearly ahead of anyone else.

 

[JasonEvans]

I want to be clear that I am not predicting or expecting Tyrese or Caleb to be underwhelming this year. Scott was like "pie bet" and I would not bet against either of these guys. I am merely saying that folks who say they are locks to play big minutes could... could... be in for a surprise if both players are similar to what they were a year ago. In my opinion, given the tremendous versatility and depth of this squad, Caleb and Tyrese need to be better to get into that 30+ mpg range.

And, again, I dearly hope they do improve enough to justify gobbling up the lion's share of the minutes. That would be a great thing for Duke!

 

[bluedevilwildcats]

I want to be clear that I am not predicting or expecting Tyrese or Caleb to be underwhelming this year. Scott was like "pie bet" and I would not bet against either of these guys. I am merely saying that folks who say they are locks to play big minutes could... could... be in for a surprise if both players are similar to what they were a year ago. In my opinion, given the tremendous versatility and depth of this squad, Caleb and Tyrese need to be better to get into that 30+ mpg range.

And, again, I dearly hope they do improve enough to justify gobbling up the lion's share of the minutes. That would be a great thing for Duke!

Agree that most of the board's assumption that our backcourt starters are "set" is premature. There are piles of data that show that a large predictor of your success in Year +1 was how you did the previous year. Folks hoping for a "leap" with Tyrese as a junior are obvi welcome to that hope but based on the data, I'd probably bet against it. Same goes for Foster although with less data, I'm less confident with him.

 

[whereinthehellami]

I have been loving CFOS asking podcast guests who has been the most impressive player so far in practices. I'm a little concerned that Cooper is not the first thing out of everyone's mouth. I think part of it has to do with Coop's game, where he is really good at everything but not really a master of anything. But still there is a little part of me...

 

[crote]

Agree that most of the board's assumption that our backcourt starters are "set" is premature. There are piles of data that show that a large predictor of your success in Year +1 was how you did the previous year. Folks hoping for a "leap" with Tyrese as a junior are obvi welcome to that hope but based on the data, I'd probably bet against it. Same goes for Foster although with less data, I'm less confident with him.

It's process of elimination, though. If not them, who? Last year Tyrese played 30 minutes a game and Caleb played 25. That was on a team with two other guards who played even more minutes (Jerm and Jared were just shy of 33 and 32 mpg, respectively). Blakes also popped in for the occasional cameo (9 mpg). Those three guys were replaced with one, Sion. None of the freshmen is a pure guard.

Scheyer played a lot of three guard lineups last year. We probably see less of that. Maybe he rolls out lineups with only one of the "real" guards and relies on K2 or Cooper to be secondary ball handlers, although I doubt we see that for extended minutes. Even with those possibilities, the numbers and personnel seem to dictate that the all three guards play big minutes. If they don't, something unexpected is happening.

 

[-jk]

I have been loving CFOS asking podcast guests who has been the most impressive player so far in practices. I'm a little concerned that Cooper is not the first thing out of everyone's mouth. I think part of it has to do with Coop's game, where he is really good at everything but not really a master of anything. But still there is a little part of me...

All part of the K-inspired disinformation campaign.

-jk

 

[brlftz]

All part of the K-inspired disinformation campaign.

-jk

Could also be that it's like Coach K never getting ACC COY. He transcended that award, apparently, and it ended up being more about who had a team that was better than expected. Cooper would be a boring answer, so people are talking about the surprises maybe.

 

[dlmzzz]

It's a little bit headspinning to read comments on both sides of the Proctor debate and think, "Yeah, that's true".
I do expect (hope?) Proctor to make similar incremental gains on offense that he made last season, and to not be injured. That might lead to stats like these:
EFG (55), AST (22.5), TO (10), 2P (.55), and 3P (.38)

That would actually be pretty darn good. That said, I think Sion could end up being a beast for us. It's possible for Proctor and Foster to both improve, and still have Sion be even better.

We need to see. I want more scrimmage footage!

 

[GGLC]

Yep, per Jason E. and kAzE, I am going to predict that our most effective five-man lineup has a very good chance of being Proctor, James, Knueppel, Flagg, and Brown.

Strong defensively with Kon's shooting to floor-space.

 

[brevity]

Could also be that it's like Coach K never getting ACC COY. He transcended that award, apparently, and it ended up being more about who had a team that was better than expected. Cooper would be a boring answer, so people are talking about the surprises maybe.

What an ungrateful league! Oh, and it's not true. Coach K was named ACC Coach of the Year 5 times, at the end of the following seasons:

1983-1984
1985-1986
1996-1997
1998-1999
1999-2000

He did not win the conference award this century, and he has never won Associated Press Coach of the Year, a national award.

 

[Nugget]

Not singling Luke out for the above as I have seen a lot lot lot of people say the same thing he wrote. But I do want to point out one thing --

I am not entirely convinced that Proctor and Foster will "play a lot" next season. They were both somewhat disappointing last year and need to make improvements to justify big minutes on this extremely talented and deep squad. ...

Why are we just assuming that Foster is going to start and play big minutes when Sion James was a vastly superior player a year ago and plays largely the same position? ...

Am I dead wrong about their play a year ago? Feel free to call me out.

I think not making a larger effort to retain Roach or to go harder after a lead guard in the portal like Kanaan Carlyle or Aidan Mahaney (whom I both recall Duke at least kicked the tires on) telegraphs that Scheyer expects to build the team around Proctor and Foster + Flagg.

James (or Kon, if he can defend guards) may well snagg some playing time from them, and I'm certainly not quite as geeked up about Foster being a star this year as some others on the board for the reasons you noted (I'm still holding a candle for Proctor - think he's an immense talent and don't really understand why his shooting was so erratic last year), but it really does look like the staff expects Proctor and Foster to lead this team.