Way-Too-Early Projected Lineups and Stat Lines for the 2024-2025 Season

[SkyBrickey]

Don't mean to monopolize the thread! Is the player Jon Scheyer a good comp for Proctor?

I see similarities. Jon had a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio in his magical 2010 year. Tyrese had a 3:1 ratio last year. Compare that to 2.5 for the great Bobby Hurley's jr and sr seasons.

As a soph Jon scored 11.7ppg in 28mpg and shot 39% from 3 and had a 53.5 eFG%. As a soph Tyrese scored 10.5ppg in 30mpg and shot 35% from 3 and had an 52.5 eFG%. And Tyrese was battling injuries for half the season.

Similar height and build. Tyrese is a bit better defender and Jon is a bit better shooter.

Jon scored 15ppg as a junior and 18ppg as a senior. I seriously doubt Tyrese will average 15ppg. But it does make me wonder if I and others might be underestimating his soph to jr year growth a bit. Hopefully Tyrese is one year ahead of schedule on that national championship!

 

[JasonEvans]

I am not as high on Sion as you are, but I think he will be a great addition. Saying he can play PG is a stretch. Heck, kenpom lists him as a PF (shocked me).

To be clear, Kenpom's pages do not actually translate to positions. He merely sorts guys by height. When he says Sion James was playing PF, all he is telling you is that Sion was the 2nd tallest guy on the floor for Tulane in those minutes. KenPom's computer would tell you Magic Johnson was playing PF for much of his LA Lakers career. Yeah, that ain't accurate.

I can tell you FOR A FACT that Sion played a pretty decent amount of PG at Tulane. I mean, take it right from the horse's mouth in his Brotherhood Podcast interview (begins at 0:48) --

"I played point guard for the most part growing up. I've played a little bit of everything since coming to college, on the ball, off the ball."

I am not saying it is going to happen, but Sion absolutely can play PG for Duke and the team would not at all have to be in a desperate situation for that to happen.

 

[kAzE]

I don't get how this is interpreted as "contempt for K2". Some people just have different opinions and speculation on how effective K2 will be in his freshman year. I agree that a either-or of contempt for K2 vs. being excited for him is plain dumb. But I also don't think that reflects the sentiment overall that has been expressed in the debate on this thread.

I would love to see Kon meet or blow everyone's expectations out of the water. I would love to see Kon be a regular and vital cog in a national contender machine. Wanting to see that happen and expecting to see that happen can be two different things coming from the same person.

Why would you assume I'm even talking about you? I don't remember you posting anything offensive. I was responding to the rather more sarcastic posts and the more crude and racist type stuff I've seen outside of DBR. You also left out the part where I said "people have contempt for Kon OR those who are excited about him", which seems to be true even here. There have definitely been some uncalled for, mean spirited posts in this debate.

 

[jipops]

Why would you assume I'm even talking about you? I don't remember you posting anything offensive. I was responding to the rather more sarcastic posts and the more crude and racist type stuff I've seen outside of DBR. You also left out the part where I said "people have contempt for Kon OR those who are excited about him", which seems to be true even here. There have definitely been some uncalled for, mean spirited posts in this debate.

I wasn’t, I was hoping there wasn’t some conflation around lower expectations of Kon and some perceived personal contempt and lack of excitement of his existence on the roster. I haven’t seen the latter on this board.

-Maliq Brown will be top rebounder in the conference and 1st team All ACC
-No he won’t, he is way too undersized.
-Yet advanced stats show he can fill a huge role especially with how this roster is constructed
-Maliq will play a limited role on this team.
-Why do you have so much contempt for Maliq Brown? Why are you not excited?

 

[azzefkram]

To be clear, Kenpom's pages do not actually translate to positions. He merely sorts guys by height. When he says Sion James was playing PF, all he is telling you is that Sion was the 2nd tallest guy on the floor for Tulane in those minutes. KenPom's computer would tell you Magic Johnson was playing PF for much of his LA Lakers career. Yeah, that ain't accurate.

I can tell you FOR A FACT that Sion played a pretty decent amount of PG at Tulane. I mean, take it right from the horse's mouth in his Brotherhood Podcast interview (begins at 0:48) --

I am not saying it is going to happen, but Sion absolutely can play PG for Duke and the team would not at all have to be in a desperate situation for that to happen.

The PF comment was very tongue-in-cheek. I knew I should have used the winky emoji.

Sion has not had an assist rate in any season that someone would consider respectable for a PG and the past two seasons have been especially poor. He has been good at limiting TOs the past two seasons. His A:TO has been 1:1 or better for the past three seasons but never above 1.3:1. None of those numbers scream PG. I would place him no higher than fourth on the PG depth chart and probably fifth.

 

[bluedevilwildcats]

Agree mostly with Jason. Jon specifically called out that after rewatching the game he would never be put in that position again. Given Tyrese laid the mother of all eggs in that game, it's not a stretch that Jon was alluding at least in part to not having the depth to take him out.

I expect that Tyrese will be about the same this year as he's been the first 2 years. In which case, if he's getting all the minutes in important games because we don't have quality depth, I feel a lot less confident about this team. He's going to have to earn those minutes, which is Jason's point.

 

[jipops]

Agree mostly with Jason. Jon specifically called out that after rewatching the game he would never be put in that position again. Given Tyrese laid the mother of all eggs in that game, it's not a stretch that Jon was alluding at least in part to not having the depth to take him out.

I have confidence that Tyrese will be about the same this year as he's been the first 2 years. In which case, if he's getting all the minutes in important games because we don't have quality depth, I feel a lot less confident about this team. He's going to have to earn those minutes, which is Jason's point.

I do hope this doesn’t end up being true. In order to be a true national contender, I think we need a Tyrese that is playing at a level above the previous 2 seasons.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Agree mostly with Jason. Jon specifically called out that after rewatching the game he would never be put in that position again. Given Tyrese laid the mother of all eggs in that game, I don't think it's much of a stretch that Jon was alluding at least in part to not having the depth to take him out.

I have confidence that Tyrese will be about the same this year as he's been the first 2 years. In which case, if he's getting all the minutes in important games because we don't have quality depth, I feel a lot less confident about this team. He's going to have to earn those minutes, which is Jason's point.

In the OAD era, we just haven't had a lot of super talented junior and senior guards who played ahead of OADs. But the ones we've had have been special.

It's reaching way back to remember the growth of Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer. More recently guys like Wendell Moore and Jeremy Roach. I'm only expecting incremental growth from Proctor but I think history tells us that's the floor and he could have a big surge this year.

I love that he plays great defense and mostly mistake-free offense. We've got so much talent on this team that having steadiness at PG is probably the best quality. He doesn't have to be a top scorer or top playmaker to deliver a championship.

 

[SkyBrickey]

To be clear, Kenpom's pages do not actually translate to positions. He merely sorts guys by height. When he says Sion James was playing PF, all he is telling you is that Sion was the 2nd tallest guy on the floor for Tulane in those minutes. KenPom's computer would tell you Magic Johnson was playing PF for much of his LA Lakers career. Yeah, that ain't accurate.

I can tell you FOR A FACT that Sion played a pretty decent amount of PG at Tulane. I mean, take it right from the horse's mouth in his Brotherhood Podcast interview (begins at 0:48) --

I am not saying it is going to happen, but Sion absolutely can play PG for Duke and the team would not at all have to be in a desperate situation for that to happen.

I love hearing that Sion can play PG if Proctor or Foster is injured. I didn't know he filled in at Tulane. As high as I am on Kon, I don't think he's ideal as third string PG.

 

[azzefkram]

It probably won't happen but it's not completely crazy for Tyrese to have a Wendell sophomore to junior jump. Both were/are young for their class. Tyrese was better as a freshman and sophomore than Wendell.

It is somewhat dumbfounding to me that some posters are performing mental gymnastics to find reasons to replace a very good ACC player with players that have done jack-poo.

 

[SkyBrickey]

It probably won't happen but it's not completely crazy for Tyrese to have a Wendell sophomore to junior jump. Both were/are young for their class. Tyrese was better as a freshman and sophomore than Wendell.

It is somewhat dumbfounding to me that some posters are performing mental gymnastics to find reasons to replace a very good ACC player with players that have done jack-poo.

It's fun when you and I agree on something, Azz.

But I do think it's a valid point that no one's minutes on this team should be guaranteed. Not even Cooper's. Even though I think Tyrese is better at the point, I'm pretty sure we had a better record last season with Foster starting at PG. So much depth. All playing time should be earned.

 

[sagegrouse]

Don't know what the problem with Tyrese is here. He's an amazing defensive player with good size. I thought he saw the court better than anyone lest season. I expect his offense to improve this year.

Sion has some things to prove, as well. He was -- apparently -- the 2nd best player on a truly mediocre Tulane team.

 

[azzefkram]

It's fun when you and I agree on something, Azz.

But I do think it's a valid point that no one's minutes on this team should be guaranteed. Not even Cooper's. Even though I think Tyrese is better at the point, I'm pretty sure we had a better record last season with Foster starting at PG. So much depth. All playing time should be earned.

I think Jon brought in the transfers he did specifically so the team would have competition up and down the lineup. My pushback is that there are zero reasons at this point to assume anyone on the roster would be a better PG than Tyrese. We are on the same wavelength with respect to Caleb's potential as a scorer but I've not seen much PG potential for Caleb yet. I think he has a long way to go to matching Tyrese in that department.

It is fun when we agree , and I hope at least a little fun when we disagree.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I think Jon brought in the transfers he did specifically so the team would have competition up and down the lineup. My pushback is that there are zero reasons at this point to assume anyone on the roster would be a better PG than Tyrese. We are on the same wavelength with respect to Caleb's potential as a scorer but I've not seen much PG potential for Caleb yet. I think he has a long way to go to matching Tyrese in that department.

It is fun when we agree , and I hope at least a little fun when we disagree.

Haha. It's fun for me. I think our debates can be exhausting to others!

I don't think the two four-man platoons with Cooper has any chance of happening, but I really hope we see the most intense Duke defense we've seen in many years going 8 men deep. I think we've got the personnel to do it with lots of guys playing 20-25mpg.

I came to Duke basketball in the late 80s when our defense was an absolute weapon. Teams couldn't get into their halfcourt offense. We had hands in every passing lane. Would be fun to see that again with this group.

 

[gep]

My hope is that this team channels Zoubs... where he said that he and Lance could go FULL OUT for 4-5 minutes and not worry about endurance, since the Plumlee brothers were there waiting to come in. If everyone plays with that mentality... that they can go FULL OUT every second since another capable player will come in and replace them, then every player can go FULL OUT every second they are on the court... and that will make an awesome team. GO DUKE!!!

 

[azzefkram]

Haha. It's fun for me. I think our debates can be exhausting to others!

I don't think the two four-man platoons with Cooper has any chance of happening, but I really hope we see the most intense Duke defense we've seen in many years going 8 men deep. I think we've got the personnel to do it with lots of guys playing 20-25mpg.

I came to Duke basketball in the late 80s when our defense was an absolute weapon. Teams couldn't get into their halfcourt offense. We had hands in every passing lane. Would be fun to see that again with this group.

Yeah the only coach I can think of that plays a really deep bench is Hamilton from FSU and frankly I'm not even sure about that. I could be head faked by the cast of thousands athletes he always seems to have on his bench. This team does seem to have depth and I think the talent drop-off from 5 to 10 isn't as precipitous as it has been for prior Duke teams. The only two recruited players I have difficulty seeing a path towards playing time are Darren and Cameron. Everyone else could fill a role.

The reason I am banging the defense drum so hard is I think Duke has a rare opportunity to have an elite defense. It is extremely hard to have an elite defensive team lead by freshmen and Jon has said that Duke will continue to prioritize elite HS talent. Far more often than not, players at the top of the HS rankings got there because of their offense. Duke can play an 8 deep rotation and have an elite defense as long as no poor defenders play more than 15 minutes per game.

 

[SkyBrickey]

My hope is that this team channels Zoubs... where he said that he and Lance could go FULL OUT for 4-5 minutes and not worry about endurance, since the Plumlee brothers were there waiting to come in. If everyone plays with that mentality... that they can go FULL OUT every second since another capable player will come in and replace them, then every player can go FULL OUT every second they are on the court... and that will make an awesome team. GO DUKE!!!

Wouldn't that be fun? We haven't seen that in a long time.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Yeah the only coach I can think of that plays a really deep bench is Hamilton from FSU and frankly I'm not even sure about that. I could be head faked by the cast of thousands athletes he always seems to have on his bench. This team does seem to have depth and I think the talent drop-off from 5 to 10 isn't as precipitous as it has been for prior Duke teams. The only two recruited players I have difficulty seeing a path towards playing time are Darren and Cameron. Everyone else could fill a role.

The reason I am banging the defense drum so hard is I think Duke has a rare opportunity to have an elite defense. It is extremely hard to have an elite defensive team lead by freshmen and Jon has said that Duke will continue to prioritize elite HS talent. Far more often than not, players at the top of the HS rankings got there because of their offense. Duke can play an 8 deep rotation and have an elite defense as long as no poor defenders play more than 15 minutes per game.

I watched Darren Harris play 3 full games. He had the entire Monteverde team trying to slow him down and it didn't matter. He was unstoppable on long 3s and driving to the rim. I posted at the time that there is absolutely no way he is only the 30th best recruit in the country.

The fact that he may barely see the court this season is kind of crazy. He could be All ACC as a sophomore.

I don't know how Jon manages all this talent, but I don't think it will be going 6.5 deep. I'm hoping there are no poor defenders on the court. I'm confident that Proctor, Flagg and Brown will all be playing very high level defense.

 

[azzefkram]

I watched Darren Harris play 3 full games. He had the entire Monteverde team trying to slow him down and it didn't matter. He was unstoppable on long 3s and driving to the rim. I posted at the time that there is absolutely no way he is only the 30th best recruit in the country.

The fact that he may barely see the court this season is kind of crazy. He could be All ACC as a sophomore.

I don't know how Jon manages all this talent, but I don't think it will be going 6.5 deep. I'm hoping there are no poor defenders on the court. I'm confident that Proctor, Flagg and Brown will all be playing very high level defense.

I did not see the earlier games but I did catch the Monteverde game. I saw a very different Darren than you did. 3-9 from 3, 2-5 from 2 seems kinda stoppable to me. Toss in that he was often on the receiving end of some highlight reel plays and 35 looks like a fair assessment. There is definitely talent there but I have a tough time seeing it show up on a team this deep.

I'd guess practice player as a freshman, rotation (not starter) as a sophomore, and dominant as an upperclassman.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I did not see the earlier games but I did catch the Monteverde game. I saw a very different Darren than you did. 3-9 from 3, 2-5 from 2 seems kinda stoppable to me. Toss in that he was often on the receiving end of some highlight reel plays and 35 looks like a fair assessment. There is definitely talent there but I have a tough time seeing it show up on a team this deep.

I'd guess practice player as a freshman, rotation (not starter) as a sophomore, and dominant as an upperclassman.

Ok, ok. Led his team with 16 points. Cooper also had 16 points in that game. And Darren had the entire Monteverde defense keyed in on him with 6+ D1 recruits.

Time will tell what Darren will do at Duke. I contend he would be starting for most ACC teams not named Duke and Carolina this season.

He will likely not play much this year. He will definitely be in the rotation next year and might be a star. I believe he's more JJ Redick than Andre Dawkins. Glad to see you're high on him as a junior/senior.

Just looked it up. JJ was the 13th ranked recruit in his class. About where K2 is ranked.