Way-Too-Early Projected Lineups and Stat Lines for the 2024-2025 Season

[Phredd3]

Good grief. This whole line of orthodoxy mystifies me. I have doubts about Kon Knueppel's defense. I don't see any affirmative evidence that his defense is actually good. He might be Paolo Banchero on the offensive end, but people took issue with Paolo's defense, too. Nobody thought Paolo was a bad player. Similarly, nobody has said or even intimated that Kon is a bad player. We just have doubts about his defense and whether or not that's going to cause issues. Is that really so bad?

I don't get it.

In any case, @scottdude8 has an excellent point that the Kon obsession is sucking the air out of the room. I haven't heard a lot about Mason Gillis this pre-season. How he's been looking in the practices? Does anybody know?

 

[SkyBrickey]

My Kon journey is pretty simple. I came into the summer assuming Isaiah and Gillis and Sion were all ahead of him in the rotation, based on all the fodder of him not being athletic enough. Then I saw his scrimmage video. Whoa, wait a sec, this guy is really big and he's got handles and he can really move.

Then the 28 of 29 3s video dropped. And all the teammate accolades. And multiple analysts mocking him mid first round. And Jai Lucas accolades. It's quacking just like a duck...

Kon could be our 5th starter, play 25mpg and be our second leading scorer. Or he could just give us 15 solid minutes off the bench. There's a wide range of possible roles for him on a very talented team.

I've been very active on here countering what I've called the TJ'ing of Kon. If I've been obnoxious about it sometimes, I apologize. Scottdude is right that we won't know until we know. And I know everyone on here hopes that Kon is a star...

 

[SkyBrickey]

Good grief. This whole line of orthodoxy mystifies me. I have doubts about Kon Knueppel's defense. I don't see any affirmative evidence that his defense is actually good. He might be Paolo Banchero on the offensive end, but people took issue with Paolo's defense, too. Nobody thought Paolo was a bad player. Similarly, nobody has said or even intimated that Kon is a bad player. We just have doubts about his defense and whether or not that's going to cause issues. Is that really so bad?

I don't get it.

In any case, @scottdude8 has an excellent point that the Kon obsession is sucking the air out of the room. I haven't heard a lot about Mason Gillis this pre-season. How he's been looking in the practices? Does anybody know?

Haven't heard any of the players talk about Mason. They seem to only want to talk about Kon.

I'm really high on Mason and think there's a good chance he could be our 5th starter. He's the ultimate college 3&D guy. He's played at the highest level of competition and has proven that he can do all the little things to help a team win.

He never averaged more than 7ppg at Purdue - not a shot creator - but he's a career 41% 3-point shooter and shot 47% last season. So he's a perfect guy to space the floor in the corner giving the other 4 guys more room to attack the rim.

Edit: another really interesting thing about Gillis to me is he is the one guy in the whole country that Scottdude said we should get when the season ended. I thought that was just forum chatter, but then the staff went out and got him. So whose idea was it?

 

[bluedevilwildcats]

Good grief. This whole line of orthodoxy mystifies me. I have doubts about Kon Knueppel's defense. I don't see any affirmative evidence that his defense is actually good. He might be Paolo Banchero on the offensive end, but people took issue with Paolo's defense, too. Nobody thought Paolo was a bad player. Similarly, nobody has said or even intimated that Kon is a bad player. We just have doubts about his defense and whether or not that's going to cause issues. Is that really so bad?

I don't get it.

In any case, @scottdude8 has an excellent point that the Kon obsession is sucking the air out of the room. I haven't heard a lot about Mason Gillis this pre-season. How he's been looking in the practices? Does anybody know?

Ha, I think folks are just looking for proof that they are probably right. As a skeptic, I check out Kon's high school mixtapes and wonder if the guy can even dunk. But I haven't bothered checking for tape on the Jordan game where it sounds like he did well.

But yeah, getting focus on to other players is overdue, lol. Re: Mason, I haven't heard/seen anything, although he seems like more of a known commodity.

 

[azzefkram]

Haven't heard any of the players talk about Mason. They seem to only want to talk about Kon.

I'm really high on Mason and think there's a good chance he could be our 5th starter. He's the ultimate college 3&D guy. He's played at the highest level of competition and has proven that he can do all the little things to help a team win.

He never averaged more than 7ppg at Purdue - not a shot creator - but he's a career 41% 3-point shooter and shot 47% last season. So he's a perfect guy to space the floor in the corner giving the other 4 guys more room to attack the rim.

Edit: another really interesting thing about Gillis to me is he is the one guy in the whole country that Scottdude said we should get when the season ended. I thought that was just forum chatter, but then the staff went out and got him. So whose idea was it?

I think the story was Jon talking to the coaches about what type of player they should target in the portal and Chris said Mason Gillis. This was before Mason entered the portal.

 

[Nrrrrvous]

I'm really high on Mason and think there's a good chance he could be our 5th starter. He's the ultimate college 3&D guy. He's played at the highest level of competition and has proven that he can do all the little things to help a team win.

I am absolutely not being snarky here, and only quoting you because you're the most recent I've seen...

I've seen lots of folks this summer pegging Mason as our 5th starter. I don't see it. Here is a guy who was not ranked in the top 100 coming out of H.S. Who has seen his average minutes/starts go down over the years at Purdue. And it's not like he's being passed over by top 20 recruits. He's losing starts/minutes to guys that also were not ranked in the top 100.

I think experience, defense and shooting will possibly get him in the mix for top 7-8. Especially if we're having moments when one of our top 20ish freshmen can't figure out where to be on defense. Sit the freshman and bring in someone who knows exactly what to do and knows where to be. That's awesome. That is a luxury to have on the bench.

But to think that he is, all of a sudden, going to beat out possible 1st round NBA talent to start seems like a bit of a reach. IMHO.

 

[azzefkram]

Good grief. This whole line of orthodoxy mystifies me. I have doubts about Kon Knueppel's defense. I don't see any affirmative evidence that his defense is actually good. He might be Paolo Banchero on the offensive end, but people took issue with Paolo's defense, too. Nobody thought Paolo was a bad player. Similarly, nobody has said or even intimated that Kon is a bad player. We just have doubts about his defense and whether or not that's going to cause issues. Is that really so bad?

I don't get it.

In any case, @scottdude8 has an excellent point that the Kon obsession is sucking the air out of the room. I haven't heard a lot about Mason Gillis this pre-season. How he's been looking in the practices? Does anybody know?

Another issue some posters miss is that there is a massive difference between being a poor defender and the first option on offense and being a poor defender and the third or fourth option on offense. As the first option, the player will get the touches and shots to potentially overcome the negative defense. Paolo is an excellent example of this. The third or fourth option probably won't get enough touches or shots to compensate for being a poor defender.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I am absolutely not being snarky here, and only quoting you because you're the most recent I've seen...

I've seen lots of folks this summer pegging Mason as our 5th starter. I don't see it. Here is a guy who was not ranked in the top 100 coming out of H.S. Who has seen his average minutes/starts go down over the years at Purdue. And it's not like he's being passed over by top 20 recruits. He's losing starts/minutes to guys that also were not ranked in the top 100.

I think experience, defense and shooting will possibly get him in the mix for top 7-8. Especially if we're having moments when one of our top 20ish freshmen can't figure out where to be on defense. Sit the freshman and bring in someone who knows exactly what to do and knows where to be. That's awesome. That is a luxury to have on the bench.

But to think that he is, all of a sudden, going to beat out possible 1st round NBA talent to start seems like a bit of a reach. IMHO.

Hey, I've basically been making your argument for the past 2 weeks! My theory is Jon will want a really good shooter at the wing as that 5th starter and that points to Mason or Kon - and leaves Sion to share the backcourt minutes with Foster and Proctor. If Kon is at least an average defender, he probably gets more minutes. But if Mason is a much better defender, maybe he gets more court time. And it could also end up as a situational/opponent thing...

 

[SkyBrickey]

Another issue some posters miss is that there is a massive difference between being a poor defender and the first option on offense and being a poor defender and the third or fourth option on offense. As the first option, the player will get the touches and shots to potentially overcome the negative defense. Paolo is an excellent example of this. The third or fourth option probably won't get enough touches or shots to compensate for being a poor defender.

I think it's time we drop the "poor defender" label for Kon. None of the analysts who have broken down his game recently are calling him that. Instead they are saying things like "rock solid defensively".

Let's not the drag the young man based on old high school tape. It's pretty clear his defense has improved a lot.

 

[crote]

Hey, I've basically been making your argument for the past 2 weeks! My theory is Jon will want a really good shooter at the wing as that 5th starter and that points to Mason or Kon - and leaves Sion to share the backcourt minutes with Foster and Proctor. If Kon is at least an average defender, he probably gets more minutes. But if Mason is a much better defender, maybe he gets more court time. And it could also end up as a situational/opponent thing...

Yeah, a reasonable expectation for Gillis is exactly what he did for four years at Purdue: play about 20 minutes, take about three 3's, make one or two of them, defend. Whether he does that as a starter or coming off the bench (he started a bit under half of his games at Purdue, although he was exclusively a 6th man last year) will largely depend on the other personnel, but either way his role is the same.

 

[Phredd3]

I think it's time we drop the "poor defender" label for Kon. None of the analysts who have broken down his game recently are calling him that. Instead they are saying things like "rock solid defensively".

Let's not the drag the young man based on old high school tape. It's pretty clear his defense has improved a lot.

Show me the tape that proves it, and I'll stop having doubts.

 

[azzefkram]

I think it's time we drop the "poor defender" label for Kon. None of the analysts who have broken down his game recently are calling him that. Instead they are saying things like "rock solid defensively".

Let's not the drag the young man based on old high school tape. It's pretty clear his defense has improved a lot.

Four things

1. Kon wasn't mentioned at all in my post
2. It's not remotely clear it has improved
3. As scottdude said, we will not know for months
4. Regurgitating a single data point ad nauseum is tiresome. I could post half a dozen quotes/videos questioning Kon's defense. I don't because it doesn't add to the conversation.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Ok, I give up.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Yeah, a reasonable expectation for Gillis is exactly what he did for four years at Purdue: play about 20 minutes, take about three 3's, make one or two of them, defend. Whether he does that as a starter or coming off the bench (he started a bit under half of his games at Purdue, although he was exclusively a 6th man last year) will largely depend on the other personnel, but either way his role is the same.

A common denominator with Brown, Gillis and James is defensive versatility. They can switch pretty much all screens which puts a lot of pressure on an offense and forces the other team into less efficient, one-on-one play.

I love that Kon and Isaiah and Darren and Pat have a whole summer scrimmaging with and against these guys. It should elevate everyone's game ahead of the season. Thinking about our last two freshman classes, they just didn't get this level of summer competition.

 

[trinity79]

Ok, I give up.

Now let's do Evans . . .

 

[DBKilby]

This video may break DBR.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1825723506887373036

 

[JasonEvans]

These are the things I think will happen:

Brown will start and play quite a bit more than Khaman, particularly early.

Proctor, Foster, and Flagg will play a lot.

The rest I have no idea how things shake out, although I do expect James to play quite a bit.

Not singling Luke out for the above as I have seen a lot lot lot of people say the same thing he wrote. But I do want to point out one thing --

I am not entirely convinced that Proctor and Foster will "play a lot" next season. They were both somewhat disappointing last year and need to make improvements to justify big minutes on this extremely talented and deep squad.

Proctor came into his soph campaign as a likely lottery pick (some had him pegged in the top 5 of the lottery). CBS had him ranked among the top 25 players in the sport. He didn't even sniff honorable mention All-ACC. His stats were largely the same as his freshman year and to say he was up and down would be an understatement -- I mean, dude ended his year by shooting 0-9 against NC State. If he does not take a step up from what we have seen for two years, he does not deserve to play 30 minutes per game.

Caleb Foster was invisible at times. He had a usage rate of 16%, far and away the lowest of any of our top 6 players. He had more games where he scored 5 points or less than games where he cracked double-digits. Sure, he hit 40.6% of his 3s, but his 2pt FG% was 45.9%, easily the worst of any of the top 8 players. I mean, given that maybe it is good that he basically did nothing on offense for the most part.

Why are we just assuming that Foster is going to start and play big minutes when Sion James was a vastly superior player a year ago and plays largely the same position?

If Ty and Caleb have improved over last season... if they play the way their reputations indicate they can... then will absolutely be major players for this team. But if they are mostly the players we saw just a few months ago, Duke likely has better options on the roster.

Am I dead wrong about their play a year ago? Feel free to call me out.

 

[jv001]

Not singling Luke out for the above as I have seen a lot lot lot of people say the same thing he wrote. But I do want to point out one thing --

I am not entirely convinced that Proctor and Foster will "play a lot" next season. They were both somewhat disappointing last year and need to make improvements to justify big minutes on this extremely talented and deep squad.

Proctor came into his soph campaign as a likely lottery pick (some had him pegged in the top 5 of the lottery). CBS had him ranked among the top 25 players in the sport. He didn't even sniff honorable mention All-ACC. His stats were largely the same as his freshman year and to say he was up and down would be an understatement -- I mean, dude ended his year by shooting 0-9 against NC State. If he does not take a step up from what we have seen for two years, he does not deserve to play 30 minutes per game.

Caleb Foster was invisible at times. He had a usage rate of 16%, far and away the lowest of any of our top 6 players. He had more games where he scored 5 points or less than games where he cracked double-digits. Sure, he hit 40.6% of his 3s, but his 2pt FG% was 45.9%, easily the worst of any of the top 8 players. I mean, given that maybe it is good that he basically did nothing on offense for the most part.

Why are we just assuming that Foster is going to start and play big minutes when Sion James was a vastly superior player a year ago and plays largely the same position?

If Ty and Caleb have improved over last season... if they play the way their reputations indicate they can... then will absolutely be major players for this team. But if they are mostly the players we saw just a few months ago, Duke likely has better options on the roster.

Am I dead wrong about their play a year ago? Feel free to call me out.

I don't think you are wrong, but I will really be concerned about the point-guard spot if Tyrese doesn't handle that position. I don't think Foster showed many point guard skills last season. I guess the other options would be James and K2. Tyrese will get minutes because he's out best on the ball defender. As for Foster, I believe he will have a fight on his hands from James, K2 and Evans. I had hoped that Malauch would be a rim protector, but it seems his offense is ahead of his defense. I know K2s defense has been discussed all summer, but Caleb needs to improve his defense as well. I don't want to see opponents isolating on any of our guys like they did on Griffin. We don't have a Likely back there guarding the rim.

GoDuke!

 

[Norman Pfyster]

I would agree that Proctor did not step forward last year like I thought he would, but he was a solid point guard (as he was as a freshman) and a top-level defender. I expect Sion James to spell him at times, but I don't see Proctor playing less than 30 minutes a game if he's healthy.

 

[sagegrouse]

Not singling Luke out for the above as I have seen a lot lot lot of people say the same thing he wrote. But I do want to point out one thing --

I am not entirely convinced that Proctor and Foster will "play a lot" next season. They were both somewhat disappointing last year and need to make improvements to justify big minutes on this extremely talented and deep squad.

Proctor came into his soph campaign as a likely lottery pick (some had him pegged in the top 5 of the lottery). CBS had him ranked among the top 25 players in the sport. He didn't even sniff honorable mention All-ACC. His stats were largely the same as his freshman year and to say he was up and down would be an understatement -- I mean, dude ended his year by shooting 0-9 against NC State. If he does not take a step up from what we have seen for two years, he does not deserve to play 30 minutes per game.

Caleb Foster was invisible at times. He had a usage rate of 16%, far and away the lowest of any of our top 6 players. He had more games where he scored 5 points or less than games where he cracked double-digits. Sure, he hit 40.6% of his 3s, but his 2pt FG% was 45.9%, easily the worst of any of the top 8 players. I mean, given that maybe it is good that he basically did nothing on offense for the most part.

Why are we just assuming that Foster is going to start and play big minutes when Sion James was a vastly superior player a year ago and plays largely the same position?

If Ty and Caleb have improved over last season... if they play the way their reputations indicate they can... then will absolutely be major players for this team. But if they are mostly the players we saw just a few months ago, Duke likely has better options on the roster.

Am I dead wrong about their play a year ago? Feel free to call me out.

Without gunner McCain and ball-dominant (i.e. "hog") Roach on the floor, I expect both to flourish. I mean, there's a reason Jeremy is playing elsewhere.