I started writing this preview on Monday, but the prospect of Duke facing Caleb Love for the tenth and definitely last time sapped all the energy out of me. Fortunately, in my delay, some of you have started making my points for me.
@Billy Dat: "
With all the talk about the SEC dominance, our path to the promised land is littered with Big 12s.”
To advance to the next round, Duke has to get past a Big 12 team that was ranked in the preseason top 10. I feel like I just wrote that sentence in the Baylor preview. Theoretically, Duke could make a tournament run of (Mount St. Mary's-)Baylor-Arizona-BYU-Houston-Texas Tech, possibly winning a national championship and an honorary Big 12 championship as well. You laugh, or maybe just arch an eyebrow because it's not ha-ha funny, but Carmelo Anthony and Syracuse did something similar in the 2003 NCAA Tournament: they beat Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas.
@gep:
"Caleb Love... I didn't think we would see him again..."
@wgl1228:
"He is feast or famine"
@MChambers:
[link to Brendan Marks’ Bluesky post about Caleb Love stats in wins and losses against Duke]
This was a great find, and it saved me from having to do the work myself.
In 5 wins: 20.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 44% FG, 36.4% from 3, 96.3% (!!) on FTs
In 4 losses: 9.8 points, 3.8 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 28% FG, 14.8% from 3, 58.3% on FTs
@OldPhiKap:
"But what are the odds that Ademola Okulaja beats himself?"
The temporary fifth year of eligibility created a situation in which Duke played RJ Davis 12 times, Armando Bacot 11 times, and Caleb Love and Jae'Lyn Withers 10 times. Did we ever face any four-year Heels this often? I looked up Marcus Paige (8 times), Tyler Hansbrough (8 times), and even Ademola Okulaja (0 times, because he always beat himself
-- what the hell, OPK? I wrote this joke a few hours before your non sequitur). I soon decided that anything was a better use of my time than researching Carolina players of the past.
@tommy:
"Their boards are probably saying the same things about our shooting of late"
I haven't checked to see what the Arizona forums are saying about this game, but I did want to borrow an illustration from
BearDownU.
View attachment 19640
Head coach Tommy Lloyd is completing his fourth season at Arizona, and he has them at 24-12 overall, 14-6 in the Big 12. Their 14-point home loss to Duke was part of a November to forget, in which the Wildcats lost 4 out of 5 games. They also were beaten at Wisconsin (by 15) and both Oklahoma (by 5) and West Virginia (by 7 in overtime) in the Bahamas. In their conference schedule, all losses were to Quad 1 opponents, Kansas State just barely, and the other 5 to teams that made the NCAA Tournament.
@JGDUKE2008:
"they won't have Krivas who started against us"
Coach Lloyd has a 20-man
roster, but really an 8-man rotation. Motiejus Krivas did start against Duke in November, but it was his only start in 8 games, after which he suffered a
foot injury that required season-ending surgery in January. The Wildcats have played their entire Big 12 schedule without him.
PROBABLE STARTERS
6-4 fifth-year guard
Caleb Love #1 (16.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.2 stl)
6-3 junior guard
Jaden Bradley #0 (12.0 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.8 stl)
6-6 fifth-year forward
Trey Townsend #4 (8.3 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.0 ast)
6-8 junior forward
Tobe Awaka #30 (8.2 pts, 8.0 reb, 0.7 ast)
6-6 junior guard
Anthony Dell'Orso #3 (7.3 pts, 1.4 reb, 1.4 ast)
TOP RESERVES
6-4 sophomore guard
KJ Lewis #5 (10.9 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.3 stl)
7-0 redshirt sophomore forward
Henri Veesaar #13 (9.3 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.1 blk)
6-8 freshman forward
Carter Bryant #9 (6.5 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.0 ast, 1.0 blk)
BENCH PLAYERS
6-0 sophomore guard
Conrad Martinez #55 (1.6 pts, 0.3 reb, 1.0 ast)
6-11 freshman forward
Emmanuel Stephen #34 (1.3 pts, 1.3 reb. 0.1 ast)
6-2 redshirt freshman guard
Sven Djopmo #42 (1.0 pts, 0.5 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-4 fifth-year guard
Grant Weitman #15 (0.8 pts, 0.6 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-3 redshirt freshman guard
Addison Arnold #2 (0.3 pts, 0.3 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-5 fifth-year guard
Liam Lloyd #11 (0.2 pts, 0.4 reb, 0.1 ast)
6-10 senior forward
Will Menaugh #33 (0.2 pts, 0.2 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-3 redshirt freshman guard
Jackson Cook #21 (0.0 pts, 0.5 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-5 junior guard
Jackson Francois #8 (0.0 pts, 0.5 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-8 redshirt senior forward
Luke Champion #24 (0.0 pts, 0.2 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-3 redshirt freshman guard
Will Kuykendall #12 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
INJURED/OTHER
7-2 sophomore center
Motiejus Krivas #14 (7.9 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.1 ast)
-- foot injury, out for season
@kako:
"Watching the Arizona-Oregon game, I was amazed at how many brain-dead plays the Wildcats made -- dumb fouls, goaltending calls, clock management, missed assignments, even a technical for hanging on the rim to try and stuff a ball into the hoop! Sure, they are talented. But somehow they just seemed to do silly things often. Oregon almost won the game, coming back from 7 down with about 1:30 left to play. I also questioned Lloyd not putting Awaka back in when it was clear they needed more physicality in the post. All of this is meant to mean that coaching also seems to be in Duke's favor."
Arizona and Oregon, both Pac-12 buddies just a year ago, played a game that got a little close at the end (87-83:
recap,
box score,
highlights,
presser). Those 4 points were also the difference by which Wildcats fifth-year Caleb Love (29 points, hitting 5 of 7 threes) outscored Ducks sophomore Jackson Shelstad (25). Four of Love's teammates -- Tobe Awaka, Jaden Bradley, Anthony Dell'Orso, and KJ Lewis -- each added a dozen points.
The Cats' 8-man rotation is evenly split between 4 backcourt players and 4 frontcourt players, but the minutes distribution is guard-heavy. Bradley and Love average around 34 minutes, while Lewis averages 26. The fourth guard (Dell'Orso) and the forwards each play 18-21 minutes per game.
@dukelion:
"Biggest concern for me is Arizona's offensive rebounding. They're one of the best in the country, even better than Baylor, and we certainly have struggled hanging onto the ball from time to time."
Despite the seeming lack of depth and the de-emphasis on size, Arizona is a top 20 scoring and rebounding team. They are not as good at offensive rebounding as Baylor was, but are far better than the Bears were at grabbing boards on the defensive end. The Wildcats are 15th in that stat, and when you combine that with their 49th place adjusted tempo and their 23rd most fastbreak points per game, they are a legitimate threat to make buckets in transition. Take a look at the comparison tables below; most of the stats come from
Sports Reference.
Bart Torvik sees the Blue Devils declawing the Wildcats, 80-73.
TABLE 1
| Category | Arizona (24-12, 14-6 Big 12) | Duke (33-3, 19-1 ACC) |
| Points Scored | 82.2 (18th nationally) | 83.2 (12th) |
| Points Allowed | 72.5 (200th) | 61.7 (6th) |
| Scoring Margin (NCAA.com) | +9.7 (27th) | +21.5 (1st) |
| Bench Points (NCAA.com) | 29.6 (19th) | 21.5 (133rd) |
| Total Rebounds | 40.1 (11th) | 38.5 (30th) |
| --- Offensive Rebounds | 12.3 (56th) | 10.9 (161st) |
| --- Defensive Rebounds | 27.8 (15th) | 27.6 (17th) |
| Assists | 16.3 (30th) | 16.9 (19th) |
| Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com) | 1.42 (50th) | 1.82 (3rd) |
| Steals | 7.6 (87th) | 6.9 (170th) |
| Blocks | 4.5 (47th) | 3.9 (96th) |
| Turnovers | 11.5 (161st fewest) | 9.3 (8th fewest) |
| Personal Fouls | 16.7 (178th fewest) | 15.7 (79th fewest) |
| Field Goal Percentage | 47.5% (43rd) | 49.2% (9th) |
| 2-Point FG Percentage | 55.0% (60th) | 58.5% (7th) |
| 3-Point FG Percentage | 33.4% (215th) | 38.7% (17th) |
| Free Throw Percentage | 77.6% (24th) | 78.5% (15th) |
TABLE 2
| Category | Arizona (24-12, 14-6 Big 12) | Duke (33-3, 19-1 ACC) |
| NET Ranking (NCAA.com) | #12 (NET Summary) | #1 (NET Summary) |
| --- Strength of Schedule | 4th | 57th |
| --- Quad 1 | 11-11 | 10-3 |
| --- Quad 2 | 5-1 | 7-0 |
| --- Quad 3 | 4-0 | 10-0 |
| --- Quad 4 | 4-0 | 6-0 |
| KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) | #13 | #1 |
| --- Offensive Efficiency | 13th | 1st |
| --- Defensive Efficiency | 28th | 4th |
| --- Tempo | 49th | 270th |
| Fastbreak Points (NCAA.com) | 13.9 (23rd) | 11.9 (76th) |
| T-Rank (Bart Torvik) | #10 (T-Page) | #2 (T-Page) |
| --- Experience | 1.917 (226th) | 0.970 (361st) |
| --- Talent | 66.351 (16th) | 80.712 (3rd) |
| --- Average Height | 77.889 (75th) | 79.762 (1st) |
| --- Effective Height | 80.498 (130th) | 82.218 (8th) |
