MBB: Duke vs. Arizona (NCAAT, Thu 3/27, 9:39pm ET, CBS) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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trinity92 said:
I'd like to follow up again on MChambers' Brendan Marks quote & use some of Brevity's data above:

Caleb Love stats
In 5 wins: 20.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 44% FG, 36.4% from 3, 96.3% (!!) on FTs

In 4 losses: 9.8 points, 3.8 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 28% FG, 14.8% from 3, 58.3% on FTs

AZ Stats
82.2 ppg average

Duke Stats
83.2 ppg average

I've seen a lot of posts suggesting we gear defense to stop Caleb Love. Was wondering if it's insane to do the opposite-- let Caleb get his, but limit everyone else. Caleb averages about 17ppg, which leaves about 65 points for the rest of the team.

Caleb has a career high of 35 points (Against Oregon on 1/27/24: 12-18 with 5 3s). Even if we let him get his career high, but limit everyone else's scoring, maybe we'd be better off? I'm guessing if we focused on stopping everyone but Love, we could hold the rest of the team to 33 points (reduce their output by 50%) and they'd only score 68 (keep in mind their whole team only scored 55 against us in November, although I'm aware these are not the same two teams). Also, allowing Caleb the relative freedom to become the "I'm the man watch me shoot an off-balance 28 footer" Caleb is like giving a drunk an open bar-- he's bound to get carried away with himself and shoot them into trouble. It might also further undermine the rest of the team if they start Caleb-watching b/c they know they're not going to get the ball.

I know it's dangerous because Caleb is not limited to his career high and my math is extremely far from rigorous, but I'm thinking out loud. Have at it and tell me why I'm dumb.
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I don't think we will sell out to stop Love. We will defend everyone like we have all year.

The one big question is what kind of coverage do we play on the big man screens for Love. Jon has employed all strategies this year. With Maliq out it's not as simple as just switching 1-5.
 
azzefkram said:
You are probably correct, but isn't Duke one of the best draws in MCBB? If they are, wouldn't it make sense to play them in primetime? I think nearly half of the people in the USA live in the eastern time zone.
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Primetime is 8:00 - 11:00. Maybe not for you, but...

So primtime ends around halftime in the east. If a good game is in progress, those who don't fall asleep during halftime will stay tuned for at least to see where the game goes. Others will awaken just in time to see Spencer Hubbard check in to seal the deal as the ultimate closer! He has a better save ratio than Mariano Rivera!
 
Edouble said:
This is exactly what I think.

If Friday nights's plans are to watch basketball, we'll go ahead and fire up the tube on for the early game then check out Duke. If the Duke game is close at halftime, we'll stay up and watch the whole thing.

If Duke is on in the first game, we can be in bed by 10:00 PM.
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If Friday night's plans are to watch basketball, you won't find Duke playing ;)

The Women play in the afternoon.
 
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camion said:
A final note on this from me:

Since I have a DVR going for all games I watch them when I please. The actual game time isn't a big consideration for me though I suppose my DVR might count as a viewer for the ratings lists.
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I am a new DIRECTV subscriber. Beware, the auto extend has been very unreliable on Directv!!
 
NYBri said:
The odds of beating a team twice in a season are smaller than the odds of beating them once. But the odds are the same for each game by itself. It’s like a coin flip. 50/50 on a single flip. Lower odds to flip heads twice in a row. But each single flip is still 50/50. Transferred to the upcoming game, the odds of winning this one game haven’t changed because we beat them before.
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there are other variables at play which I (and most statisticians, I imagine) would contend don't make the odds in the second game the same. the talent and abilities of coaches and players to learn and adapt from the first game will change the odds. The development and experience from the intervening games also will change the odds for the second game.

While the above is true, I agree with your point that the second game odds should be looked at without the outcome of the first game being one of the data elements for the second game odds - unless you include "pay-back" as an intangible which should be considered.

That bolded add-on I just put could be used to sway my thoughts on this.
 
Music man55 said:
I think if we lock down Love, the rest will sort of fall into place. And we have the defenders to do just that. Need for Gillis and Slim to find their three point shot and help spread the floor. I hope Proctor is still on a heater! Coop will be a herd matchup for their bigs. Let’s go do this Duke!
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These are my sentiments too. Gillis must make a few shots . Hopefully 3. Duke needs a much better rebounding loose ball game than Baylor and Arizona has a good offensive rebounding record. Grab the basketball with 2 hands. Duke has to secure the ball much better. Our big 3 Cooper Kon and Tyrese have to be great 2 way games. Sion same. Khaman and Pat do what they do well. Caleb a Baylor repeat performance. High anxiety until game begins
 
AZLA said:
I feel like being in the BIG MOMENT honestly will put a lot more pressure and intensity on Love than he probably needs to take on —
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sorry, but no. if he was up for taking the duke-killer shot in the final 4 to end K’s career and (as it stands now ) the hardest slap down in the rivalry) i think he’ll be ready.
 
heyman25 said:
These are my sentiments too. Gillis must make a few shots . Hopefully 3. Duke needs a much better rebounding loose ball game than Baylor and Arizona has a good offensive rebounding record. Grab the basketball with 2 hands. Duke has to secure the ball much better. Our big 3 Cooper Kon and Tyrese have to be great 2 way games. Sion same. Khaman and Pat do what they do well. Caleb a Baylor repeat performance. High anxiety until game begins
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Disregarding the miracle run between 1986 and 1994, when we get this far into the tourney we should be anxious. Our remaining games will be tough.
 
It just occurred to me that this game could very well be Spencer Hubbard's last game for Duke, lets win this thing for him!
 
I think Love will see every guard/forward we have guarding him til we find out the best defender for him.Im not worried about this game.I think our length will wear them down by the 2nd half for a comfortable win.A little bit like the Baylor game.go 👿
 
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