Horse Racing 2024

Subject: A Couple of 2YO Races

Churchill Downs is open again, so why not run some 2YO races in the heart of the greatest horse producing state in the world.

The Iroquois is the headliner open 2YO race:
[ URL above; Saturday September 14, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
Owen Almighty looks.. mighty good; his last race was a win in stakes company. He's undefeated in 2 starts and has Irad Ortiz. Sandman had a good maiden win in tough company and gets a jockey upgrade.

For the 2YO fillies, it is the Pocahontas:
[ URL above; Saturday September 14, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
Kimchi Cat is progressing nicely. Strong State may not have liked the mud at Saratoga (rain is predicted for Friday and Saturday). La Cara's last time out was great, but she took 4 races to break her maiden. I think this is a wide open race.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Subject: A Couple of 2YO Races

Churchill Downs is open again, so why not run some 2YO races in the heart of the greatest horse producing state in the world.

The Iroquois is the headliner open 2YO race:
[ URL above; Saturday September 14, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
Owen Almighty looks.. mighty good; his last race was a win in stakes company. He's undefeated in 2 starts and has Irad Ortiz. Sandman had a good maiden win in tough company and gets a jockey upgrade.

For the 2YO fillies, it is the Pocahontas:
[ URL above; Saturday September 14, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
Kimchi Cat is progressing nicely. Strong State may not have liked the mud at Saratoga (rain is predicted for Friday and Saturday). La Cara's last time out was great, but she took 4 races to break her maiden. I think this is a wide open race.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
This Iroquois is fascinating. 10 of 12 horses come in off wins. How often do you see that in a race? Four of the twelve are by Not This Time, a sire with a $150,000 stud fee, who is really just getting started. Do you find it strange that Giocoso whose best race is his last on the turf is running in this race for a $300,000 purse rather than having run at the Kentucky Downs meet for a much higher purse on his preferred surface? I could make an argument for about 8 horses being the winner, although Owen Almighty was the best 2 year old at Ellis this summer. He gets Irad and will be favored. DevilHorse you mentioned Sandman, the most expensive horse in the race. What about Jonathan’s Way who per form was pinched and had to rally for a big victory? As would be expected with two year olds, a lot of early speed. A lot of really high priced horse flesh in this race. A horse I bet at Ellis is in this race, Mesero. I had written about him earlier. He had a horrible start. I immediately thought I had wasted my money betting him. Then he did something I don’t recall seeing two year olds do. He rallied and won. His speed figure on the muddy track was ordinary, but I will probably place a small wager on him again, probably in an exacta with the other two I mentioned. After typing these comments I went back to check out workouts. To my surprise not a single horse is coming off a bullet work. But I found one interesting thing. Asmussen, a trainer whose horses don’t usually work fast, has Magnitude with bullet works on August 11 and August 25. He is a $450,000 purchase who won second out. He probably deserves a closer look. What do you think? There was discussion on FanDuel this summer of whether Saratoga’s two year old maiden races were that much better than Ellis Park horses. A discussion that would have been absurd in years past. This race will be interesting seeing how horses from each track run. I’ll look at the girls race later. Thanks for posting and linking the past performances.
 
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
This Iroquois is fascinating. 10 of 12 horses come in off wins. How often do you see that in a race? Four of the twelve are by Not This Time, a sire with a $150,000 stud fee, who is really just getting started. Do you find it strange that Giocoso whose best race is his last on the turf is running in this race for a $300,000 purse rather than having run at the Kentucky Downs meet for a much higher purse on his preferred surface? I could make an argument for about 8 horses being the winner, although Owen Almighty was the best 2 year old at Ellis this summer. He gets Irad and will be favored. DevilHorse you mentioned Sandman, the most expensive horse in the race. What about Jonathan’s Way who per form was pinched and had to rally for a big victory? As would be expected with two year olds, a lot of early speed. A lot of really high priced horse flesh in this race. A horse I bet at Ellis is in this race, Mesero. I had written about him earlier. He had a horrible start. I immediately thought I had wasted my money betting him. Then he did something I don’t recall seeing two year olds do. He rallied and won. His speed figure on the muddy track was ordinary, but I will probably place a small wager on him again, probably in an exacta with the other two I mentioned. After typing these comments I went back to check out workouts. To my surprise not a single horse is coming off a bullet work. But I found one interesting thing. Asmussen, a trainer whose horses don’t usually work fast, has Magnitude with bullet works on August 11 and August 25. He is a $450,000 purchase who won second out. He probably deserves a closer look. What do you think? There was discussion on FanDuel this summer of whether Saratoga’s two year old maiden races were that much better than Ellis Park horses. A discussion that would have been absurd in years past. This race will be interesting seeing how horses from each track run. I’ll look at the girls race later. Thanks for posting and linking the past performances.
Click to expand...
A few adhoc observations:

Interesting comments about Not This Time. The way stallions are bred sets up for improved foal performance in the 3rd or 4th year. The reason is that when the first crop foals hit the ground, you can only evaluate how they look when you breed for the second crop. You breed for the 3rd crop based on how the first crop looks as yearlings. It is only late in the 4th crop breeding season that the first crop 2YOs are training and racing (late in the 4th crop breeding season). So breeders know what type of successful looking (for sales) or training (for the races) foals have what type of mares. You also have a known phenomenon of stud fees depressing through the first 3 years of a stallion at stud. You also have the new studs to compete with. So it makes sense (to me anyway) to start breeding mares to a stallion during his 3rd or 4th year at stud to have the best information, early, on what types of mares give the best resulting foals. Not This Times first crop was 2018 (now 6YOs), so his 3rd/4th crops were born in 2020/2021 (a.k.a., 3YOs 4YOs). It is the 3YOs that should be benefiting from clever breedings based on full observation of the first crop. Not This Time's 2YOs, in the Iroquois, are also early beneficiaries of smart breeders. Sorry if I'm rambling, but it is interesting how these things evolve. I recall that Secretariat's first 2 crops were ho hum, but he was the leading (by money) sire of 2YOs in his 3rd crop.

I might add that Nyquist's first foals were in 2018 too. He is having a tremendous year at the yearling sales!!

Can you believe that as of a day ago, there have been over 35 million dollar yearlings sold at the Keeneland Yearling Sales? Must be that Kentucky Downs money coming home to roost.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Subject: A Couple of 2YO Races

Churchill Downs is open again, so why not run some 2YO races in the heart of the greatest horse producing state in the world.

The Iroquois is the headliner open 2YO race:
[ URL above; Saturday September 14, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
Owen Almighty looks.. mighty good; his last race was a win in stakes company. He's undefeated in 2 starts and has Irad Ortiz. Sandman had a good maiden win in tough company and gets a jockey upgrade.

For the 2YO fillies, it is the Pocahontas:
[ URL above; Saturday September 14, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
Kimchi Cat is progressing nicely. Strong State may not have liked the mud at Saratoga (rain is predicted for Friday and Saturday). La Cara's last time out was great, but she took 4 races to break her maiden. I think this is a wide open race.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...

As TheDevilMadeMeDoIt (TDMMDI) suggested, Jonathan's Way was the favorite in the Iroquois and he fit the bill:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1835072306974277865
Owen Almighty ran a closing second. I have to wonder if Jonathan's Way's pedigree will catch up to him eventually. Vekoma was a superior sprinter and miler, although he did have one win at moderate distances (The Bluegrass Stakes); But he did finish 12th in the KYD to Country House. But Jonathan's Way is the horse of the day.

Looks like La Cara did learn a few things in all of those maiden races.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1835060441464090669
This race was a huge field of 14 horses, so she did well.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
In this world of large purses, we have 2 interesting races this weekend.

The following 2 races are being run at Parx in Pennsylvania this Saturday:

The Pennsylvania Derby will be run:
[ URL above; Saturday September 22, 2024; Parx Racing - Race 13; PPs ]
Interesting mix of horses here, led by Seize the Grey, who won the Preakness and Pat Day Mile this year, but disappointed in the Belmont and Travers. What's up with this horse? The distance of 1 1/8 should be right in this horse's wheelhouse. Dragoon Guard won the Indiana and West Virginia Derbys; he finished 2nd in his first start and then reeled off 4 wins in a row; he is by Arrogate, so late blooming is in his genes. Unmatched Wisdom had an incident in his last race, but is otherwise perfect in lower class races.

For the fillies, there is the Cotillion:
[ URL above; Saturday September 22, 2024; Parx Racing - Race 12; PPs ]
The great Thorpedo Anna has chosen this as a prep race for the Breeder's Cup. I'd expect a couple of length win off of a pace that is easy for her here. There are other good fillies here though. Tarifa was highly thought of early in the year but failed in the Kentucky Oaks (won by T Anna), and finished 2nd in the Audobon (not the highest challenging race). Power Squeeze won the Alabama, but lost convincingly when facing Thorpedo Anna. Sidamara, Gun Song, and Mystic Lake have shown good speed figures, but none has shown the class and speed of Thorpedo Anna. I'd guess a Thorpedo Anna/Power Squeeze exacta.

These 2 million dollar races, on the dirt, causes me to think about all of those million dollar races at Kentucky Downs in recent weeks.
I read an article this morning by Dean Towers in the Harness Racing Update.
harnessracingupdate.com

There’s a time when purse subsidies become undeniably ineffective

Sooner or later, the sport of horse racing needs to...
harnessracingupdate.com harnessracingupdate.com
He points out that 76 races at the KD meet averaged about $450k, with 15 races at $1M or more. That's incredible. But on average, the money is only going to a few owners/breeders. Consider that $37M in total purse money at the KD meet brought in about $90M of handle; assume KD took 20% of that, and that's only $18M to cover $37M in purses. That's not really good because KD lost money on this deal. [The track keeps 10-20 percent (depending on the type of bet; i.e., exacta takeout is 18.3%) of the handle to pay for purses (in a normal world). The takeout doesn't nearly cover the cost of the purses.] But the KD purse money came from the casinos. Is this a good model for the industry? The KY Legislature can change the amount of casino money distributed for purses in a second; surely there are other places KY would put the money. Is concentrating all of the casino money (at KD) to the top 4 horses in 76 races good for the industry? What will cause an increase in the size of foal crops (available horses in 3-5 years); there is a shortage of horses in most venues. The KD model has appeared to be the same since its' inception. Is this distribution to KD fair to the breeders whose sires are considered Dirt Horse producers? Perhaps Dean's identification of this issue will stir some thinking to benefit a wider range of the industry. <Rant Off>.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
An interesting article, but I believe FanDuel is trying to get its sports bettors interested in horse racing. The multi million dollar races create publicity for horse racing particularly on Fan Duel. I am not a sports bettor so maybe my opinion on this is incorrect. When you see the odds for most sports betting you’re getting a return of roughly 1/1. In horse race betting you see payouts many times greater. You also see pick 5’s and 6’s paying thousands even sometimes hundreds of thousands dollars. One would think some of these sports bettors are going to be attracted to the higher payouts. Maybe just wishful thinking on my part that horse racing can begin to attract more fans. There is irony that casino gambling and its availability around the country almost killed horse racing. Now casinos have been used to reinvigorate horse racing.

The issue of declining foals is something I have no thoughts on. I think most of horse players dislike small fields so increasing the number of horses available to run needs some attention. Losing racing in Northern California certainly did not do anything good for the horse population. An interesting development in the horse industry is that Kentucky Downs owners, Ron Winchell and his partner have purchased Wyoming Downs. Evidently historical horse racing machines are legal in Wyoming. I am just not sure Wyoming has a big enough population to move the needle on any of these issues. But certainly more tracks and more racing should encourage more breeding.

On the issue of the Kentucky legislature changing the beneficiaries of the casino money there are many worthy candidates, but the breeders, Keeneland and Churchill Downs will never let it happen. Plus speaking as a proud Kentuckian we are born with an inferiority complex and having the best horse farms, stud horses and highest purse structures in the country is a source of pride. That may be a misplaced priority, but it’s a fact of life.
 
Subject: Odds and Ends

The great Frankie Dettori was injured in the starting gate in the last race at Belmont At Aqueduct this past week. He got a separated shoulder, that was promptly popped back in place. No word on when he'll return. No doubt (my guess) way before the BC. Since he is a top tier jockey, he will have a mount in most of the BC races.

Saw a nice maiden 2YO filly yesterday. Muhimma, a daughter of Munnings, comfortably won her first start:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1837220304550252911
She was a $700k purchase. But what I found interesting was that she has 5 crosses to Secretariat (if you don't know by now, he's a fave of mine).

I saw that Mystik Dan has started back in training again. No race targets yet.

I heard some distressing news yesterday. The racetrack that is closest to me, Freehold Raceway will be closing its doors in December. Freehold Raceway IS the oldest operating pari-mutual track in North America. They started racing there in 1830 and it became Pari-Mutual around 1854. That's 170 years. The grandstand burned down in 1984 and was rebuilt into a modern facility (so was Garden State Park, but that didn't help). They held triple crown races (The Cane Pace) there for a number of years. 170 years ago, the track was in the outskirts of the center of town (about 1 mile from the town hall), but suburbia surrounded the place, but it hung in there. Springsteen mentions Highway 9 in Born To Run; Freehold Raceway is built across Highway 9! The horses assemble on the west side of Highway 9 and then cross a bridge over '9' to get to the track on the East side. That bridge is horses (and their handlers) only. Simulcasting and the archaic casino situation in New Jersey prevents Freehold, a daytime track, from making enough money. The casino lobby in Atlantic City prevents any track in New Jersey from having an associated Racino. I've won races at Freehold and run cheap horses there; this is not The Meadowlands. What a shame for the whole industry.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Subject: Odds and Ends

The great Frankie Dettori was injured in the starting gate in the last race at Belmont At Aqueduct this past week. He got a separated shoulder, that was promptly popped back in place. No word on when he'll return. No doubt (my guess) way before the BC. Since he is a top tier jockey, he will have a mount in most of the BC races.

Saw a nice maiden 2YO filly yesterday. Muhimma, a daughter of Munnings, comfortably won her first start:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1837220304550252911
She was a $700k purchase. But what I found interesting was that she has 5 crosses to Secretariat (if you don't know by now, he's a fave of mine).

I saw that Mystik Dan has started back in training again. No race targets yet.

I heard some distressing news yesterday. The racetrack that is closest to me, Freehold Raceway will be closing its doors in December. Freehold Raceway IS the oldest operating pari-mutual track in North America. They started racing there in 1830 and it became Pari-Mutual around 1854. That's 170 years. The grandstand burned down in 1984 and was rebuilt into a modern facility (so was Garden State Park, but that didn't help). They held triple crown races (The Cane Pace) there for a number of years. 170 years ago, the track was in the outskirts of the center of town (about 1 mile from the town hall), but suburbia surrounded the place, but it hung in there. Springsteen mentions Highway 9 in Born To Run; Freehold Raceway is built across Highway 9! The horses assemble on the west side of Highway 9 and then cross a bridge over '9' to get to the track on the East side. That bridge is horses (and their handlers) only. Simulcasting and the archaic casino situation in New Jersey prevents Freehold, a daytime track, from making enough money. The casino lobby in Atlantic City prevents any track in New Jersey from having an associated Racino. I've won races at Freehold and run cheap horses there; this is not The Meadowlands. What a shame for the whole industry.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
Is the state trying to destroy the horse tracks? Why do the casinos not want Racino’s? I have never known a horse track to threaten the viability of a casino. It has always been the other way around. I do wonder when all the gambling expansion in this country starts to face some push back.
 
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
Is the state trying to destroy the horse tracks? Why do the casinos not want Racino’s? I have never known a horse track to threaten the viability of a casino. It has always been the other way around. I do wonder when all the gambling expansion in this country starts to face some push back.
Click to expand...
Atlantic City is the issue. They were a destination in the state for any gamblers. There used to be hundreds of buses from New York City going down there. Now that business has dried up significantly because of Racinos in Yonkers and Aqueduct (soon there will be only the casino and no more Aqueduct). Apparently the politicians need to try to maintain the viability of Atlantic City since it gets a huge amount of taxes from there.

Horse Tracks (soon to be Track) in New Jersey are allowed to have sportsbooks; Off Track Betting parlors. I'm able to get all of the horse racing I can watch or bet on through a NJ only App (for TVG/Fan Duel). Fan Duel doesn't really care if a race originates in NJ or not.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
In this world of large purses, we have 2 interesting races this weekend.

The following 2 races are being run at Parx in Pennsylvania this Saturday:

The Pennsylvania Derby will be run:
[ URL above; Saturday September 22, 2024; Parx Racing - Race 13; PPs ]
Interesting mix of horses here, led by Seize the Grey, who won the Preakness and Pat Day Mile this year, but disappointed in the Belmont and Travers. What's up with this horse? The distance of 1 1/8 should be right in this horse's wheelhouse. Dragoon Guard won the Indiana and West Virginia Derbys; he finished 2nd in his first start and then reeled off 4 wins in a row; he is by Arrogate, so late blooming is in his genes. Unmatched Wisdom had an incident in his last race, but is otherwise perfect in lower class races.

For the fillies, there is the Cotillion:
[ URL above; Saturday September 22, 2024; Parx Racing - Race 12; PPs ]
The great Thorpedo Anna has chosen this as a prep race for the Breeder's Cup. I'd expect a couple of length win off of a pace that is easy for her here. There are other good fillies here though. Tarifa was highly thought of early in the year but failed in the Kentucky Oaks (won by T Anna), and finished 2nd in the Audobon (not the highest challenging race). Power Squeeze won the Alabama, but lost convincingly when facing Thorpedo Anna. Sidamara, Gun Song, and Mystic Lake have shown good speed figures, but none has shown the class and speed of Thorpedo Anna. I'd guess a Thorpedo Anna/Power Squeeze exacta.


Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...

Seize the Grey returned to 3YO relevance with a win in the Pennsylvania Derby:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1837630327038038016
Seize the Grey lost a little momentum in the stretch, but picked it up and won comfortably. Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold finished 2nd. Seize the Grey was awarded a 97 Beyer Figure.
Just a note, Jennifer Paquette, the race caller, is the first and only fulltime female race caller in North America. She obviously has enthusiasm for the job.

Thorpedo Anna won the Cotillion but it didn't look easy:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1837614776723325221
Thorpedo Anna did not go to the front and seemed boxed in throughout the race; but she found some daylight and muscled forward. I don't think she was touched by the whip (the jockey was waving the stick in front of her eyes, which is a usual 'mild' urging technique). Gun Song rounded out the $26 exacta.
Thorpedo Anna was awarded a 93 Beyer for her effort.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Seize the Grey returned to 3YO relevance with a win in the Pennsylvania Derby:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1837630327038038016
Seize the Grey lost a little momentum in the stretch, but picked it up and won comfortably. Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold finished 2nd. Seize the Grey was awarded a 97 Beyer Figure.
Just a note, Jennifer Paquette, the race caller, is the first and only fulltime female race caller in North America. She obviously has enthusiasm for the job.

Thorpedo Anna won the Cotillion but it didn't look easy:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1837614776723325221
Thorpedo Anna did not go to the front and seemed boxed in throughout the race; but she found some daylight and muscled forward. I don't think she was touched by the whip (the jockey was waving the stick in front of her eyes, which is a usual 'mild' urging technique). Gun Song rounded out the $26 exacta.
Thorpedo Anna was awarded a 93 Beyer for her effort.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
She was definitely boxed but wondering if her long season is beginning to wear on her. Maybe the race against the boys took something out of her. Still several weeks to the Breeders Cup so hopeful she gets rested and ready to run. She definitely does not want to lose.
 
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
She was definitely boxed but wondering if her long season is beginning to wear on her. Maybe the race against the boys took something out of her. Still several weeks to the Breeders Cup so hopeful she gets rested and ready to run. She definitely does not want to lose.
Click to expand...
I've seen it happen often that a horse either 1) Doesn't run their usual tendency (i.e., front runner or closer) or 2) has to be restrained because they are stuck and want to run. This is why horses early in their career should be taught to relax in with other horses (or in the case of Tapit Trice, to leave the gate promptly). I've had a horse choke down in a stakes race because the driver didn't want her to go; but she kept fighting it (she could be a stone cold leaver). I didn't see Thorpedo Anna being restrained by the jockey, but she hasn't had much 'practice' sitting behind other horses.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: This Weekend 9/28-29

There are a few races worth mentioning for this weekend; nothing major.

On Saturday at Belmont at Aqueduct:

Race 4 is the Woodward:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Belmont at the Big A - Race 4; PPs ]
Skippylongstocking has been the best performer in a modest class of older horses. Crupi and Tapit Trice will challenge to fill out the exacta.

Race 9 is the Vosburgh:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Belmont at the Big A - Race 9; PPs ]
Dean Delivers has a string of wins, but they are lower class races. Baby Yoda hasn't been doing well, but he's been racing against tigers. I'd pick Baby Yoda over DD.

At Churchill Downs:


Race 8 is the Ack Ack.
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
Saudi Crown is the class of this race.


Race 10 is the Lukas Classic:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
Disarm and Rattle N Roll are leading horses on the tertiary stakes circuit. Rattle N Roll hasn't run for a year. Disarm has been in with tougher. I'd say Disarm over RNR.

The race of the weekend will be on Sunday; the California Crown. No PPs yet.

The top mare Adare Manor retired this week.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Subject: This Weekend 9/28-29

There are a few races worth mentioning for this weekend; nothing major.

On Saturday at Belmont at Aqueduct:

Race 4 is the Woodward:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Belmont at the Big A - Race 4; PPs ]
Skippylongstocking has been the best performer in a modest class of older horses. Crupi and Tapit Trice will challenge to fill out the exacta.

Race 9 is the Vosburgh:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Belmont at the Big A - Race 9; PPs ]
Dean Delivers has a string of wins, but they are lower class races. Baby Yoda hasn't been doing well, but he's been racing against tigers. I'd pick Baby Yoda over DD.

At Churchill Downs:


Race 8 is the Ack Ack.
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
Saudi Crown is the class of this race.


Race 10 is the Lukas Classic:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
Disarm and Rattle N Roll are leading horses on the tertiary stakes circuit. Rattle N Roll hasn't run for a year. Disarm has been in with tougher. I'd say Disarm over RNR.

The race of the weekend will be on Sunday; the California Crown. No PPs yet.

The top mare Adare Manor retired this week.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
My mistake, the California Crown is a Saturday race:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Santa Anita - Race 8; PPs ]
Note that this is a handicap.
Muth will be tested against older horses for the first time. National Treasure is a quality horse; his last race was lackluster, but he can produce. Senor Buscador should be sharper; he even had a bullet work. An interesting horse is Subsanador; this Argentina bred horse likes the dirt and wins. He won the Iselin against a less than stellar field, but with a good rating. Muth loves the track, but unless he is loose on the lead, I'd bet against him. Any of these 4 can win. Senor Buscador might give the best ROI.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Subject: This Weekend 9/28-29

There are a few races worth mentioning for this weekend; nothing major.

On Saturday at Belmont at Aqueduct:

Race 4 is the Woodward:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Belmont at the Big A - Race 4; PPs ]
Skippylongstocking has been the best performer in a modest class of older horses. Crupi and Tapit Trice will challenge to fill out the exacta.

Race 9 is the Vosburgh:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Belmont at the Big A - Race 9; PPs ]
Dean Delivers has a string of wins, but they are lower class races. Baby Yoda hasn't been doing well, but he's been racing against tigers. I'd pick Baby Yoda over DD.

At Churchill Downs:


Race 8 is the Ack Ack.
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
Saudi Crown is the class of this race.


Race 10 is the Lukas Classic:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
Disarm and Rattle N Roll are leading horses on the tertiary stakes circuit. Rattle N Roll hasn't run for a year. Disarm has been in with tougher. I'd say Disarm over RNR.

The race of the weekend will be on Sunday; the California Crown. No PPs yet.

The top mare Adare Manor retired this week.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
Hurricane Helene is supposed to park over much of Tennessee and Kentucky for the next few days so look for a mudder in any race at Churchill this weekend. Your comment regarding Skippylongstocking and the modest class of older horses certainly appears correct. I kept thinking I had just missed some older horse who is truly outstanding, but evidently not. Surely we will get some great geldings coming along in the future. Horses like Forego and John Henry are great for the game. If they stay healthy they can race for years. What I don’t see any more are the handicap races where they assign 130 plus pounds to a horse. Those old geldings carried a lot of weight as they kept winning.
 
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
Hurricane Helene is supposed to park over much of Tennessee and Kentucky for the next few days so look for a mudder in any race at Churchill this weekend. Your comment regarding Skippylongstocking and the modest class of older horses certainly appears correct. I kept thinking I had just missed some older horse who is truly outstanding, but evidently not. Surely we will get some great geldings coming along in the future. Horses like Forego and John Henry are great for the game. If they stay healthy they can race for years. What I don’t see any more are the handicap races where they assign 130 plus pounds to a horse. Those old geldings carried a lot of weight as they kept winning.
Click to expand...
I seem to recall about 15 years ago someone noticed that any horse assigned too much weight (anything 130 or above) went and found another race. So they stopped assigning the big numbers. I see very few 106 or 109 weights too.

Here is an article from 2010 that is like minded:
www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com

What Happened to the Handicap?

Top weight for last Saturday's Santa Anita Handicap was 117 pounds. Long gone are the days of John Henry carrying 130 pounds on the way to victory. This prompts the question: what happened to the Handicap race?
www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com

An aside.. First year sire Authentic just had his 10th winner. He started slowly but now needs more stakes horses.
Here is an up to date list of the sires of Two Year Olds:

2025 Sires of 2YOs by Progeny Earnings - Sire Lists - BloodHorse

www.bloodhorse.com www.bloodhorse.com
A lot of first year sires on the list.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
My mistake, the California Crown is a Saturday race:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Santa Anita - Race 8; PPs ]
Note that this is a handicap.
Muth will be tested against older horses for the first time. National Treasure is a quality horse; his last race was lackluster, but he can produce. Senor Buscador should be sharper; he even had a bullet work. An interesting horse is Subsanador; this Argentina bred horse likes the dirt and wins. He won the Iselin against a less than stellar field, but with a good rating. Muth loves the track, but unless he is loose on the lead, I'd bet against him. Any of these 4 can win. Senor Buscador might give the best ROI.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...

The California Crown was perhaps the best race of the day:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1840179368674636253
Mike Smith was a master in getting Subsanador home to win in a great stretch run. There is a rule of thumb in racing that a horse runs away from the crop when being hit, so jockeys have to take care when they hit on the left flank, that moves a horse to the right, and vice verse. Many disqualifications have resulted from a jockey using the crop on the opposite side of a horse from a nearby opponent (thus making the horse drift into the path of the competing horse). Smith hit his horse in the early stretch, on the left side, which moved Subsanador to the right to make the stretch run; but the inside horse (National Treasure) and outside horse (Newgate) quickly created a threesome with little room to use the crop. Mike Smith didn't hit his horse again and still got him home. No disgrace for National Treasure and Newgate. Subsanador paid $14.20; great ROI.

In other news, Dornoch has been retired due to a bone bruise suffered while training.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Subject: This Weekend 9/28-29

There are a few races worth mentioning for this weekend; nothing major.

On Saturday at Belmont at Aqueduct:

Race 4 is the Woodward:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Belmont at the Big A - Race 4; PPs ]
Skippylongstocking has been the best performer in a modest class of older horses. Crupi and Tapit Trice will challenge to fill out the exacta.

Race 9 is the Vosburgh:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Belmont at the Big A - Race 9; PPs ]
Dean Delivers has a string of wins, but they are lower class races. Baby Yoda hasn't been doing well, but he's been racing against tigers. I'd pick Baby Yoda over DD.

At Churchill Downs:


Race 8 is the Ack Ack.
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
Saudi Crown is the class of this race.


Race 10 is the Lukas Classic:
[ URL above; Saturday September 28, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
Disarm and Rattle N Roll are leading horses on the tertiary stakes circuit. Rattle N Roll hasn't run for a year. Disarm has been in with tougher. I'd say Disarm over RNR.

The race of the weekend will be on Sunday; the California Crown. No PPs yet.

The top mare Adare Manor retired this week.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...

Good news and Bad news at Aqueduct. It rained a long soaking rain on Saturday. Sloppy Track. Good news: the NY/NJ area needed the rain.

Tapit Trice won the Woodward:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1840086256224743890
Tapit Trice had his usual slow start and was last at the head of the stretch; Skippylongstocking had what seemed like an easy trip home. Then rigor mortis set in on 'Skippy' in the last furlong and Tapit Trice strided out with a quick brush in the final 16th.

Mufasa won the Vosburgh:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1840125634024296744
I'm not lion, Mufasa is by Practical Joke out of a Scat Daddy mare (apparently a large number of Practical Joke's better runners are out of Scat Daddy mares; but then, perhaps that's all he was bred to). Scat Daddy is of course the sire of Justify.

It was wet at Churchill Downs too:

Three Technique won the Ack Ack:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1840205435648844179
Nice last to first win. Saudi Crown was scratched.

The Lukas Classic was won by Hit Show:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1840218494173839803
Cooke Creek hung in there at the end. Hit Show was on the KYD trail early last year, but was an early drop-out. Nice to see that he continues to progress in his career.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
I seem to recall about 15 years ago someone noticed that any horse assigned too much weight (anything 130 or above) went and found another race. So they stopped assigning the big numbers. I see very few 106 or 109 weights too.

Here is an article from 2010 that is like minded:
www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com

What Happened to the Handicap?

Top weight for last Saturday's Santa Anita Handicap was 117 pounds. Long gone are the days of John Henry carrying 130 pounds on the way to victory. This prompts the question: what happened to the Handicap race?
www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com

An aside.. First year sire Authentic just had his 10th winner. He started slowly but now needs more stakes horses.
Here is an up to date list of the sires of Two Year Olds:

2025 Sires of 2YOs by Progeny Earnings - Sire Lists - BloodHorse

www.bloodhorse.com www.bloodhorse.com
A lot of first year sires on the list.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
Thanks for the links. The article on handicap races and weights is another reminder of how much the game has changed over the fifty years I have been sporadically watching it. Some think the horses are more fragile, but similar changes have occurred in human sports too. I remember when Mike McGee was coaching Duke football and he went with three a day practices. That would be an NCAA infraction today. But on the flip side at least with human athletes the strength and conditioning trainers and routines are far superior to the old days. Have horse training techniques changed that much over the last few decades?
 
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