Horse Racing 2024

TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
Thanks for the links. The article on handicap races and weights is another reminder of how much the game has changed over the fifty years I have been sporadically watching it. Some think the horses are more fragile, but similar changes have occurred in human sports too. I remember when Mike McGee was coaching Duke football and he went with three a day practices. That would be an NCAA infraction today. But on the flip side at least with human athletes the strength and conditioning trainers and routines are far superior to the old days. Have horse training techniques changed that much over the last few decades?
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I haven't seen anything to indicate training techniques have changed for the TBreds. However, I think that advances in veterinarian related things has improved dramatically. I imagine that trainers are smarter about chemical things (thanks to Vet input), as well as diagnostic techniques. I think surgeries now for things like a flipped palate and leg injuries have advanced quite a bit.

I may have mentioned long ago how Ruffian's sire Reviewer had many leg problems, and his progeny suffered from leg problems significantly more than the average TBred. So problems can be propagated. In contrast, a Standardbred (SBred) named Good Time is recognized as having his progeny much less prone to injury than the average SBred; you see quite a few inbreds to Good Time. So there is hope that when a potent sire that is sound and fast, can pass on those traits to the TBred genome.

Additionally, there are different training techniques that go in and out of vogue. For example, interval training is a training philosophy that is popular in europe. It can be done for TBreds and SBreds. In fact, several SBred training facilities in North America have built interval training tracks (they are different than ovals) to help foment more training.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Some Weekend Races

On Friday at Keeneland is the Alcibiades for 2YOF:
[ URL above; Friday October 4, 2024; Keeneland - Race 7; PPs ]
The Queens M G is coming off the lackluster last race in the mud. Look for a comback if the track is dry. Quietside has shown class.

On Saturday:

The Queens M G appears in the entry box again for the Frizette at Belmont at Aqueduct:
[ URL above; Saturday October 5, 2024; Keeneland - Race 9; PPs ]
Senza Patrol looks like she has ability to challenge or win. But 2YOF are tough to figure; they improve on a dime.

Also at BAQ is the Champagne for 2YOC:
[ URL above; Saturday October 5, 2024; Belmont at the Big A - Race 8; PPs ]
This could be the race of the day with highly regarded Hopeful winner Chancer McPatrick will vie against top NY State colt Mo Plex. J J Zo Zo has also been improving.

The Breeders Futurity for 2YOC will be run at Keeneland:
[ URL above; Saturday October 5, 2024; Keeneland - Race 9; PPs ]
Ferocious, who was 2nd in the Hopeful, looks like the class; he has the figures. Tenacious Leader has ability. What's with these snarling names? Dapper Moon may have figured it out.

Brightwork makes another appearance in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes at Keeneland:
[ URL above; Saturday October 5, 2024; Keeneland - Race 7; PPs ]
If you'll remember, Brightwork looked great as a 2YO, but she got injured and only recently returned. Spirit Wind threw a clunker in last out, but is also a top 3YOF.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Some Weekend Races

On Friday at Keeneland is the Alcibiades for 2YOF:
[ URL above; Friday October 4, 2024; Keeneland - Race 7; PPs ]
The Queens M G is coming off the lackluster last race in the mud. Look for a comback if the track is dry. Quietside has shown class.

On Saturday:

The Queens M G appears in the entry box again for the Frizette at Belmont at Aqueduct:
[ URL above; Saturday October 5, 2024; Keeneland - Race 9; PPs ]
Senza Patrol looks like she has ability to challenge or win. But 2YOF are tough to figure; they improve on a dime.



Larry
DevilHorse
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Immersive won the Alcibiades:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1842318130183614678
Fast fractions in the Alcibiades. Nyquist continues his excellent siring year. It looks like the Queen M G will try the Frizette.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Some Weekend Races


On Saturday:

The Queens M G appears in the entry box again for the Frizette at Belmont at Aqueduct:
[ URL above; Saturday October 5, 2024; Keeneland - Race 9; PPs ]
Senza Patrol looks like she has ability to challenge or win. But 2YOF are tough to figure; they improve on a dime.

Also at BAQ is the Champagne for 2YOC:
[ URL above; Saturday October 5, 2024; Belmont at the Big A - Race 8; PPs ]
This could be the race of the day with highly regarded Hopeful winner Chancer McPatrick will vie against top NY State colt Mo Plex. J J Zo Zo has also been improving.

The Breeders Futurity for 2YOC will be run at Keeneland:
[ URL above; Saturday October 5, 2024; Keeneland - Race 9; PPs ]
Ferocious, who was 2nd in the Hopeful, looks like the class; he has the figures. Tenacious Leader has ability. What's with these snarling names? Dapper Moon may have figured it out.

Brightwork makes another appearance in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes at Keeneland:
[ URL above; Saturday October 5, 2024; Keeneland - Race 7; PPs ]
If you'll remember, Brightwork looked great as a 2YO, but she got injured and only recently returned. Spirit Wind threw a clunker in last out, but is also a top 3YOF.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...

In the Frizette, Scottish Lassie made mince meat out of the field:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1842649906080837948
Her sire Mckinzie is coming into his own (to be discussed later). The Queens M G was scratched (I haven't heard why).

In the Champagne, Chancer Mcpatrick continues to impress:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1842658079332069688
This is a muscular colt who looks like a triple crown trail horse. He is also by Mckinzie. McKinzie, IIRC, was a late bloomer, so we may see the best of him yet. This looks like a bumper crop of first year sires (i.e., Vekoma, Tiz The Law, Authentic, Complexity).

In the Thoroughbred Club of America, Zeitlos was the best:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1842666349362856093
Zeitlos looked hopelessly boxed at the head of the stretch, but managed to get through on the rail.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Interesting day at Keeneland. The five year old mare, Idiomatic punched her ticket to the Breeders Cup to defend her title. She was one of the few favorites to win on Sunday. Now Idiomatic will face Thorpeda Anna. That’s a tough ask. The early pick five carried over with about $260,000. The first race winner paid about $40 while the winner of the third paid over $100. The last race was a stakes race on the turf with the winner paying $79. One observation regarding the Euro turf horses coming to America. At some point the Euro trainers thought they could win with their third and fourth stringers, horses who had never won a graded stakes. They can’t. So that’s a good omen our turf horses are getting better. Maybe the breeders are learning which mares to breed with which of our best sires, some of whom have not typically been bred to turf type mares. There was a time not very long ago when the Euros won more than their fair share of our turf races. Now they don’t. Trainers like Asmussen now have more turf horses. The weather was really hot at Keeneland but supposed to cool down this week which the horses and humans should enjoy.
 
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
Interesting day at Keeneland. The five year old mare, Idiomatic punched her ticket to the Breeders Cup to defend her title. She was one of the few favorites to win on Sunday. Now Idiomatic will face Thorpeda Anna. That’s a tough ask. The early pick five carried over with about $260,000. The first race winner paid about $40 while the winner of the third paid over $100. The last race was a stakes race on the turf with the winner paying $79. One observation regarding the Euro turf horses coming to America. At some point the Euro trainers thought they could win with their third and fourth stringers, horses who had never won a graded stakes. They can’t. So that’s a good omen our turf horses are getting better. Maybe the breeders are learning which mares to breed with which of our best sires, some of whom have not typically been bred to turf type mares. There was a time not very long ago when the Euros won more than their fair share of our turf races. Now they don’t. Trainers like Asmussen now have more turf horses. The weather was really hot at Keeneland but supposed to cool down this week which the horses and humans should enjoy.
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Here is Idiomatic's Spinster win:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1843041301002142056
I disagree with the remarks on the race chart; I thought that the jockey imposed significant urging during the stretch run.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Word on the street is that a share of Flightline will sell at Keeneland at the end of the month, as part of their Championship Sale.
2 years ago, a share to Flightline sold for $4.6M. Flightline's foals are weanlings (born this year) so some people know what a young one of his progeny looks like.

When that share sold 2 years ago I wondered what that entitled the new owner to. One share may mean 3 breedings. I don't have the answer yet, but I'll be working on it.

Of course, after I buy this share, all I have to do is buy a few $5k claimers to breed to him. I'm sure 1 of the 3 mares will produce a KYD/KYO winner!!! ;)

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Looking at Flightline’s record was there any comment at the time of why he only raced 6 times. I get that 6 of 6 is pretty strong. But did he have health issues? Also noticed in the chart of his Breeders Cup victory that Rich Strike ran in the race and beat some good horses such as Life is Good and Hot Rod Charlie. Maybe Richie’s best race aside from the Derby. Epicenter was pulled up in that race. I’m guessing Flightline will only be bred to best broodmares thus increasing his odds of success. Flightline is the poster horse for how racing’s greatest stars are retired before the public can really develop a relationship with the horse. I get it that the money is too great to keep a once in a lifetime horse in training. It has been the same story my entire life which is why we need a gelding like Forego to emerge.
 
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
Looking at Flightline’s record was there any comment at the time of why he only raced 6 times. I get that 6 of 6 is pretty strong. But did he have health issues? Also noticed in the chart of his Breeders Cup victory that Rich Strike ran in the race and beat some good horses such as Life is Good and Hot Rod Charlie. Maybe Richie’s best race aside from the Derby. Epicenter was pulled up in that race. I’m guessing Flightline will only be bred to best broodmares thus increasing his odds of success. Flightline is the poster horse for how racing’s greatest stars are retired before the public can really develop a relationship with the horse. I get it that the money is too great to keep a once in a lifetime horse in training. It has been the same story my entire life which is why we need a gelding like Forego to emerge.
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I think Flightline had a minor injury as a 2YO. According to google, he was surprised and hit himself on a latch (producing a scar). His trainer Sadler had always treated this horse with kid gloves; no doubt he knew what he had and didn't let him run until he was 100%. He was a $1M yearling, so I suppose you treat those a bit differently.

There were few undefeated stakes horses out there. Justify, Personal Ensign, and even the sire Danzig created quite a buzz and then got injured and retired.

I'm not sure that the Flightline syndicate has a say over any of the breedings that a syndicate owner puts forward; there are farm breedings and open to the public breedings where approval of the mare would be part of the process. But if you own a share, you can bring nelly the (TBred) cart puller to the sire. But then, that would be a waste I'd think.

There are 40 shares in Flightline. There were 152 mares bred in each of Flightline's first 2 years. That leaves 3.8 breedings per share, where some of these breedings that are actually open to the public. Perhaps a share of Flightline gives you 2 or 3 breedings.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Slim Pickings again this week.

Most of the horses we follow ran last week or earlier in preparation for the BC at the beginning of November.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Here's something you don't see everyday.

Apparently the Jockey thought one of the earlier poles in this race was the finish line (it actually has a finish line mirror). So he eases up on his horse in the last 1/8 mile.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1846658494935572847

The trainer of the pulled up horse apparently hadn't won a race in over 50 starts. I hope he doesn't question the fates.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
A couple of interesting races this weekend. None of these horses will be running in BC races. BC races are starting 2 weeks from tomorrow (Friday).

At Keeneland on Saturday:

The 7th race is the 7f Perryville:
[ URL above; Saturday October 19, 2024; Keeneland - Race 7; PPs ]
One of my faves, Book'em Danno, is taking the easy way out and running in the (relatively) minor stakes race. What is interesting is that in a week and a half, a share of Book'em Danno will go on sale at the Keeneland Sale. The sale is during the week before the BC (being run at Del Mar). That will be stressful for anyone wanting to attend both. Apparently there are 12 horses, entered for the BC, that are fully or partially in that Keeneland sale. Wow, what an opportunity. Danno better look good! Locked is an interesting 2nd choice; Locked hasn't run since finishing 3rd in the BC Juvenile last year. His workouts look very good. But I have a feeling that this horse will avoid 'Danno' and run in an optional claimer at Belmont At Aqueduct where 1) he can use Lasix 2) it is a much easier field.

Also on that card is Race 9, the Raven Run:
[ URL above; Saturday October 19, 2024; Keeneland - Race 9; PPs ]
A lightly raced filly named Emery looks the best here. My Mane Squeeze is a competitive filly who should hit the trifecta.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
A couple of interesting races this weekend. None of these horses will be running in BC races. BC races are starting 2 weeks from tomorrow (Friday).

At Keeneland on Saturday:

The 7th race is the 7f Perryville:
[ URL above; Saturday October 19, 2024; Keeneland - Race 7; PPs ]
One of my faves, Book'em Danno, is taking the easy way out and running in the (relatively) minor stakes race. What is interesting is that in a week and a half, a share of Book'em Danno will go on sale at the Keeneland Sale. The sale is during the week before the BC (being run at Del Mar). That will be stressful for anyone wanting to attend both. Apparently there are 12 horses, entered for the BC, that are fully or partially in that Keeneland sale. Wow, what an opportunity. Danno better look good! Locked is an interesting 2nd choice; Locked hasn't run since finishing 3rd in the BC Juvenile last year. His workouts look very good. But I have a feeling that this horse will avoid 'Danno' and run in an optional claimer at Belmont At Aqueduct where 1) he can use Lasix 2) it is a much easier field.

Also on that card is Race 9, the Raven Run:
[ URL above; Saturday October 19, 2024; Keeneland - Race 9; PPs ]
A lightly raced filly named Emery looks the best here. My Mane Squeeze is a competitive filly who should hit the trifecta.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
As favorites have been winning at a rate of over 45%, no need to handicap, just bet the favorite. The Perryville at Keeneland brought back memories of 2020. That year Keeneland hosted the Breeders Cup and the Perryville, a non BC race was the first race on Saturday. The horse Nashville won the race in track record time running faster than the later BC Sprint race. Sometimes the best horses don’t get into the BC races.

I was disappointed to see the BC is staying in California for at least another year. Are they waiting for the new Belmont to be finished? As of right now they haven’t sold out DelMar for this year’s event. Bring it back to Keeneland or Churchill and the attendance will be several times that at either Santa Anita or DelMar.
 
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
As favorites have been winning at a rate of over 45%, no need to handicap, just bet the favorite. The Perryville at Keeneland brought back memories of 2020. That year Keeneland hosted the Breeders Cup and the Perryville, a non BC race was the first race on Saturday. The horse Nashville won the race in track record time running faster than the later BC Sprint race. Sometimes the best horses don’t get into the BC races.

I was disappointed to see the BC is staying in California for at least another year. Are they waiting for the new Belmont to be finished? As of right now they haven’t sold out DelMar for this year’s event. Bring it back to Keeneland or Churchill and the attendance will be several times that at either Santa Anita or DelMar.
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You can't bet a favorite of 1/2 or less; your ROI would still leave you a loser. But I'm sure your intuition told you that.

Yes, they are talking about bringing the BC to Belmont sometime soon after the track is back. Keeneland, CD, Belmont are all good choices. I wouldn't bring it back to Aqueduct; not too accommodating to fans anymore. More seagulls than people on a regular day. I used to watch the Concorde take off and land at JFK airport from the Aqueduct grandstand. I remember seeing Onion (conqueror of Secretariat) as a 6YO at Aqueduct. The place is cold though.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
A couple of interesting races this weekend. None of these horses will be running in BC races. BC races are starting 2 weeks from tomorrow (Friday).

At Keeneland on Saturday:

The 7th race is the 7f Perryville:
[ URL above; Saturday October 19, 2024; Keeneland - Race 7; PPs ]
One of my faves, Book'em Danno, is taking the easy way out and running in the (relatively) minor stakes race. What is interesting is that in a week and a half, a share of Book'em Danno will go on sale at the Keeneland Sale. The sale is during the week before the BC (being run at Del Mar). That will be stressful for anyone wanting to attend both. Apparently there are 12 horses, entered for the BC, that are fully or partially in that Keeneland sale. Wow, what an opportunity. Danno better look good! Locked is an interesting 2nd choice; Locked hasn't run since finishing 3rd in the BC Juvenile last year. His workouts look very good. But I have a feeling that this horse will avoid 'Danno' and run in an optional claimer at Belmont At Aqueduct where 1) he can use Lasix 2) it is a much easier field.

Also on that card is Race 9, the Raven Run:
[ URL above; Saturday October 19, 2024; Keeneland - Race 9; PPs ]
A lightly raced filly named Emery looks the best here. My Mane Squeeze is a competitive filly who should hit the trifecta.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
Brunacini won the Perryville:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1847741181557428412
Brunacini benefited from a tightly packed group, in front of better horses, that allowed him to win. Book'em Danno (2nd place) had his momentum stopped a couple of times and had to shift between horses to find any daylight. Knightbridge (3rd place) is lightly raced and will be a good horse.

Emery won the Raven Run:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1847755703336751231
My Mane Squeeze didn't have enough zip to overcome some minor traffic problems, but finished 2nd.

A top 2YO from last year made his first start since the 2023 BC Juvenile. His name is Locked and he was the favorite in the BCJuv last year and finished 2nd:
Nice time.

2 weeks to the Breeder's Cup.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
The Chosen Vron is out of the BC. He apparently couldn't pass a Vet's inspection.

There are races of interest this week, but they obviously involve horses not destined for the BC this year.

On Saturday is the Mother Goose Stakes at Aqueduct:
[ URL above; Saturday October 26, 2024; Belmont At The Big A - Race 10; PPs ]
Tarifa was one of the top rated fillies entering this year, and was the favorite in the KY Oaks, but she failed miserably and has only picked up a couple of checks since. She obviously had a physical issue. Gun Song has been sharper. Pretty Anna has good ratings. I'd pick a Gun Song/Tarifa/Pretty Anna triple. The Mother Goose has been a step child of the NYRA racing schedule. It used to be a mainstay of the Triple Tiara, but lately has been a race in the fall for non-BC 3YO fillies. This race is named after a horse, not the nursery rhymes.

On Sunday I found an interesting race, named after Street Sense for 2YOs:
[ URL above; Sunday October 27, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
The richest 2YO in the country (until next week's BC) is Tiztastic; this horse didn't do well on the dirt in his first lifetime start, but excelled in his next 2 starts which happened to be on the turf. This race is back on the dirt. You can try to beat him with Dapper Moon, who was in against BC Juvenile horses last time out.

The Breeder's Crown (not Cup) for standardbreds is this weekend. Just thought I'd give it a plug (pun intended).

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Breeder's Cup 2024 Pre-Entries

Here are the Pre-Entries for Breeder's Cup 2024 - Day 1 - Friday Nov 1
www.horseracingnation.com

Breeders’ Cup Friday 2024: Probable fields for 5 races

Pre-entries for 5 races dedicated to 2-year-olds at Del Mar on Friday, Nov. 1.
www.horseracingnation.com www.horseracingnation.com

Here are the Pre-Entries for Breeder's Cup 2024 - Day 2 - Saturday Nov 2
www.horseracingnation.com

Breeders’ Cup Saturday: Probable fields for Classic, 6 other races

Pre-entries for 9 races Saturday, Nov. 2, at Del Mar, including $7 million Classic.
www.horseracingnation.com www.horseracingnation.com

Also Eligibles (AEs) have a decent chance of drawing in since: Horses get sick, some Horses are entered in 2 races.

I noticed that Dapper Moon is entered in the BC Juvenile. He is slated to run this weekend. We will see.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Breeder's Cup 2024 PPs and some News

Word is that Idiomatic (retired) and National Treasure (injured) are both out of the Breeder's Cup.

Here are pointers to pages that have the Friday's BC PPs:

Friday Nov 1 2024 at Del Mar

Race 6 – BC Juvenile Turf Sprint 2YO


Race 7 – BC Juv Fillies 2YOF


Race 8 – BC Juv Fillies Turf 2YOF


Race 9 – BC Juvenile 2YO


Race 10 - BC Juv Turf 2YO

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/PeterMiller/MILLER+PETER/9999/summary.html

I assume you will not need my additional information to find the Del Mar entries on Friday Nov 1.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Breeder's Cup at Del Mar Saturday Nov 2, 2024

Here are Saturday's pointers to the PPs:

Race 4 – BC F&M Sprint


Race 5 – BC Turf Sprint T


Race 6 – BC Distaff

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/BradHCox/COX+BRAD+H/9999/summary.html



Race 7 – BC Turf T


Race 8 – BC Classic ~5:41 [ Mott, pletch,CBrown, Baffert


Race 9 – BC F&M Turf T


Race 10 – BC Sprint


Race 11 – BC Mile Turf T


Race 12 – BC Dirt Mile


Please Note that the Breeder's Cup Classic is Race 8. I believe that this is to accommodate television. You'll have to find other outlets to watch Races 9-12 on Saturday.

Let the handicapping begin!

Larry
DevilHorse
 
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