Horse Racing 2024

Started looking at the Travers. You can make an argument for several horses in the race. I didn’t think much of Fierceness as he entered his last race, but boy was he tough. Can he finally break the cycle of great race followed by a dud? Is Sierra Leone, the $2.3 million purchase who is only 2 wins out of five races this year just a good horse, but nowhere close to a great horse? Is Dornoch the most underrated of the group? Will Thorpeda Anna with her less stellar speed figures really be competitive with this group? Will lightly raced Unmatched Wisdom continue to improve and beat this group? This is the toughest race to handicap this year since the Kentucky Derby. I haven’t got a clue which horse is ready for the race of its life. An exacta bet should pay well for an 8 horse field, but can you hit it without including more than two horses? Looking forward to other’s opinions on this race.
I haven't looked in detail at this race, but I would like to point out additional (obvious) handicapping helpers:
1) What will the weather be like? This skew your perspective. [Saturday looks like a beautiful and dry fall day]
2) When possible, I like to look at the horses after they are saddled up and are on the track. You may not form an opinion on every horse, but you can get some guidelines. Look for the dull horses (to scratch out); look for the washed out/fractious horses; look for the healthy horses (ears pricked and dapples visible; look for the torqued up horses (not fractious, but on the muscle). If you can put a few horses in each category, you'll have an edge.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Travers Day 2024

I've picked out some interesting races that have the most familiar names (can't do that with 2YO races, but you can with the post KYD 3YOs). Note that there are more races on the page URLs that you might check out.

At Saratoga on Saturday... (there are a lot of 7f races today).

There is the Ballerina Stakes for 3YO and Up F (7f not 9F):
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 10; PPs ]
Not sure if Munny's Gold will be there, but Vahva will likely be the post time favorite; she is sharp as a tack right now. Scylla has been really good and lost to a tough Adare Manor last out. Accede and Society have credentials too. This is a 7f race, so these sprinters might not last. Great betting race. I would not pick Munny's Gold if she's in here.

I'll just mention that on the line above the Ballerina is a pointer to the Sword Dancer on the turf.

In the 12th is the H Allen Jerkins (7f), for 3YO male sprinters:
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 12; PPs ]
Another great race! Book'em Danno is possibly in (cross entered with another race mentioned upstream); he was life and death winning his last race at 1/5. But I don't think he was prepped for his best effort like he will be today. Lightly raced World Record will be a contender as will Prince Of Monaco, Little Ni,, and Domestic Product. Speak Easy is undefeated and has tremendous potential. I'd take Book'em Danno over Prince Of Monaco. The jockeys are all familiar names too.

The Forego is race 10 (7f):
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 10; PPs ]
I saw Forego win at 7f, so the race name is deserved; but Forego could win at any distance. Gun Pilot should be your race favorite. Mullikan is on a streak and will be competitive.

Race 13 is .. The Travers:
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 13; PPs ]
Thorpedo Anna is of course the interesting horse, but she will have to be at her best to win this. She has a 5 lb weight advantage and Dornoch, Fierceness, and Sierra Leone all have higher speed figures, but they don't always show up. Thorpedo Anna and Dornoch have been the most consistent really. But Thorpedo Anna has an X-Factor; she's not been challenged. To quote Victor Mature/Samson from 'Samson and Delilah', "who knows the strength of ropes that have never been tested?" Fierceness loves Saratoga. So I'm thinking that Fierceness, Dornoch, and Thorpedo Anna might be a good triple box. I'm thinking that Dornoch will take the lead with Fierceness stalking and Anna nearby. If Dornoch has enough of a lead, he won't be caught. Fierceness could run him down if he's within 1.5 lengths. Thorpedo Anna is a bit of a wild card, because she hasn't been tested. Sierra Leone has not shown that he can run down a superior horse, so I'll pass on him (famous last words). Should be exciting. My pick is Dornoch over Fierceness.

On the left coast is the Pat O'Brien Stakes:
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Del Mar - Race 9; PPs ]
Pat O'Brien was an actor who, along with Bing Crosby, helped to build Del Mar. He also is best known for playing Knute Rockne in the movies;
The Gipper was played by Ronald Reagan in this movie; if you didn't know before, you know now where RR got his nickname. Does this mean Pat O'Brien was the (honorary) 5th horseman of Notre Dame?? But who was a better Rockne? O'Brien or Rudy?
Sorry.. But I digress. The Chosen Vron makes another appearance. Raging Torrent is in great shape and his speed figures are comparable. Senor Buscador makes an appearance too; this is the first race since he padded his earnings with big checks in the Middle East. He probably won't be sharp, but come from (way!) behind horses don't have his class. And besides, Senor Buscador is NOT a sprinter; unless he stalks the pace, he won't be able to catch up to the top 2 IMHO. I'm thinking that the Senor is in this race to help get him into shape; I'm leaving him out of the exacta. Vron over Torrent.

Any opinions? Fun Races!

Larry
DevilHorse
 
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Quick Note..

Reminder that there are a boatload of great races today at Saratoga (and maybe Charles Town); pointed to up stream.

Book'em Danno has been scratched from the Hilton Memorial, so I presume he is running in the Jerkins, which will be a great race. How races are supposed to set up.

A great filly that was mostly prominent last year, Pretty Mischievous, has been retired.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Busy Travers Week 8/23+

This entry will discuss Friday stakes, and other things.

On Friday at Saratoga, there are 2 races that caught my interest:

Race 5 is the Smart N Fancy:
[ URL above; August 23, 2024; Saratoga - Race 5; PPs ]
This is a turf race. What makes it interesting is that Munny's Gold is entered; this would be her first turf race. She likes it short and this is 5.5 furlongs. Roses for Debra might be the morning line favorite for 2 interesting reasons, other than she is fast. 1) Irad Ortiz is her pilot.. and he apparently picked RFD and got off Munny's Gold. but.. 2) Munny's Gold is also entered in the Ballerina on the dirt on Saturday. The Ballerina is a tough race, but it has a $500k purse; the Smart N Fancy is 'only' $150k. I think Irad expects Munny's Gold to run in the Ballerina, so he's sticking with RFD. Also consider that Munny's Gold is trained by his main man Todd Pletcher, so Irad does not want to kill the golden goose by picking off Pletcher's horse. Irad often rides inferior horses in a race for Pletcher to keep those bigtime horses flowing to him.

Race 10 is the Personal Ensign with Idiomatic:
[ URL above; August 23, 2024; Saratoga - Race 10; PPs ]
Idiomatic is not as good as last year, but that may not stop her from winning. Raging Sea is in great shape, but hasn't won a Grade I yet. Randomized won last year's Alabama and is improving toward this her 3rd start of the year; Joel Rosario is 3 for 3 winning on this filly.

Friday is a big night for Charles Town Racetrack. They are offering up big money for multiple stakes races:

There is the Charles Town Oaks for the 3YO and Up fillies for $750k:
[ URL above; August 23, 2024; Charles Town - Race 10; PPs ]
This is likely to be My Mane Squeeze vs. Impel. Although the money is great, these fillies appear to be second tier to me.

The race of the night is the Charles Town Classic for 3YO and Up for $1M:
[ URL above; August 23, 2024; Charles Town - Race 11; PPs ]
Skippylongstocking was one of the most consistent handicap horses in the first part of the year, but has fallen off with 7 races in less than 10 months. This horse might need a rest, but this is a big step down in competition as far as I'm concerned. He won the last time at the Grade 2 level.

All of the PPs haven't appeared for a busy Saturday, but you can find the Travers (and other Saturday Saratoga stakes) in the Pletcher pointer above.

A couple of older horses were retired in the past week or so. Rich Strike is likely to be retired, according to his connections, after sustaining a ligament injury this week. The Kentucky Derby was unfortunately (or fortunately) his peak performance.
Also, the good horse Kingsbarn has been retired.

Larry
DevilHorse
Future Is Now won the Smart N Fancy Stakes:
Nice stretch drive.

Pace makes the race in the Personal Ensign:
Randomized and Idiomatic had a raging speed duel in this 1 1/8 mile race. Idiomatic was the best for that part of the race, but it exhausted her tank. Raging Sea came from far back to nip Idiomatic. Idiomatic was the best horse, but tactics killed this effort. Apparently Idiomatic is at h
er best when she is winging it; but competition will hurt her in a long race.

Mystic Lake ran away and hid in the Charles Town Oaks:

Skippylongstocking dominated the Charles Town Classic:
His handlers are smart; there is a lot of money out there, even if you're not a top 5 colt. Just don't beat your brains out losing in prestige races.

Did I mention that Arabian Knight was retired? Expensive, but not very sound.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Travers Day 2024

I've picked out some interesting races that have the most familiar names (can't do that with 2YO races, but you can with the post KYD 3YOs). Note that there are more races on the page URLs that you might check out.

At Saratoga on Saturday... (there are a lot of 7f races today).

There is the Ballerina Stakes for 3YO and Up F (7f not 9F):
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 10; PPs ]
Not sure if Munny's Gold will be there, but Vahva will likely be the post time favorite; she is sharp as a tack right now. Scylla has been really good and lost to a tough Adare Manor last out. Accede and Society have credentials too. This is a 7f race, so these sprinters might not last. Great betting race. I would not pick Munny's Gold if she's in here.

I'll just mention that on the line above the Ballerina is a pointer to the Sword Dancer on the turf.

In the 12th is the H Allen Jerkins (7f), for 3YO male sprinters:
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 12; PPs ]
Another great race! Book'em Danno is possibly in (cross entered with another race mentioned upstream); he was life and death winning his last race at 1/5. But I don't think he was prepped for his best effort like he will be today. Lightly raced World Record will be a contender as will Prince Of Monaco, Little Ni,, and Domestic Product. Speak Easy is undefeated and has tremendous potential. I'd take Book'em Danno over Prince Of Monaco. The jockeys are all familiar names too.

The Forego is race 10 (7f):
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 10; PPs ]
I saw Forego win at 7f, so the race name is deserved; but Forego could win at any distance. Gun Pilot should be your race favorite. Mullikan is on a streak and will be competitive.

Race 13 is .. The Travers:
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 13; PPs ]
Thorpedo Anna is of course the interesting horse, but she will have to be at her best to win this. She has a 5 lb weight advantage and Dornoch, Fierceness, and Sierra Leone all have higher speed figures, but they don't always show up. Thorpedo Anna and Dornoch have been the most consistent really. But Thorpedo Anna has an X-Factor; she's not been challenged. To quote Victor Mature/Samson from 'Samson and Delilah', "who knows the strength of ropes that have never been tested?" Fierceness loves Saratoga. So I'm thinking that Fierceness, Dornoch, and Thorpedo Anna might be a good triple box. I'm thinking that Dornoch will take the lead with Fierceness stalking and Anna nearby. If Dornoch has enough of a lead, he won't be caught. Fierceness could run him down if he's within 1.5 lengths. Thorpedo Anna is a bit of a wild card, because she hasn't been tested. Sierra Leone has not shown that he can run down a superior horse, so I'll pass on him (famous last words). Should be exciting. My pick is Dornoch over Fierceness.

On the left coast is the Pat O'Brien Stakes:
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Del Mar - Race 9; PPs ]
Pat O'Brien was an actor who, along with Bing Crosby, helped to build Del Mar. He also is best known for playing Knute Rockne in the movies;
The Gipper was played by Ronald Reagan in this movie; if you didn't know before, you know now where RR got his nickname. Does this mean Pat O'Brien was the (honorary) 5th horseman of Notre Dame?? But who was a better Rockne? O'Brien or Rudy?
Sorry.. But I digress. The Chosen Vron makes another appearance. Raging Torrent is in great shape and his speed figures are comparable. Senor Buscador makes an appearance too; this is the first race since he padded his earnings with big checks in the Middle East. He probably won't be sharp, but come from (way!) behind horses don't have his class. And besides, Senor Buscador is NOT a sprinter; unless he stalks the pace, he won't be able to catch up to the top 2 IMHO. I'm thinking that the Senor is in this race to help get him into shape; I'm leaving him out of the exacta. Vron over Torrent.

Any opinions? Fun Races!

Larry
DevilHorse
So still undecided on the Travers, but will share my thoughts regarding other races. The ninth race a turf race looks like a two horse race between the Euro horses Measured Time and Silver Knott. Loks like a really low exacta payout, but better than a win bet.

The 10th is another really tough race. Vahva has been winning and working great. Agree with DevilHorse she will be the favorite. This is Society’s second race this year an angle I love. If she runs any better she could win. Since there is so much speed, a long shot would be Positano Sunset coming from off the pace. She’s never won a graded stakes so maybe I am delusional, but a small win bet should pay well.

In the 11th I love Mulliken. Now watch him run a real clunker of a race. Baby Yoda loves Saratoga, but just isn’t as good as he was a few years ago. Yet two races ago he shocked everyone at 9/1.

The 12th rivals the Travers for handicapping difficulty. At least 4 and maybe 5 horses with legitimate chances to win. If World Record gets an easy lead, he could win. He should have the lead, just not sure how much he will be pressed. Domestic Product and Prince of Monaco are good. Book’em Danno has won three in a row. He comes from off the pace. I will probably bet an Exacta box with World Record and Book’em Danno. If they run like most recent exactas they will run first and third, for which there is no current bet.

For the Travers I will wait to see the odds and probably bet whatever will pay the best. I am subject to being talked on or off a horse by Maggie Wolfendale, whose comments are usually right on.

As I type this I am watching GaTech play FSU. Rooting for GaTech to win. That is solely to put FSU in their place for suing the ACC to leave. They think they can get to the playoffs by joining the SEC? They are delusional!
 
So still undecided on the Travers, but will share my thoughts regarding other races. The ninth race a turf race looks like a two horse race between the Euro horses Measured Time and Silver Knott. Loks like a really low exacta payout, but better than a win bet.

The 10th is another really tough race. Vahva has been winning and working great. Agree with DevilHorse she will be the favorite. This is Society’s second race this year an angle I love. If she runs any better she could win. Since there is so much speed, a long shot would be Positano Sunset coming from off the pace. She’s never won a graded stakes so maybe I am delusional, but a small win bet should pay well.

In the 11th I love Mulliken. Now watch him run a real clunker of a race. Baby Yoda loves Saratoga, but just isn’t as good as he was a few years ago. Yet two races ago he shocked everyone at 9/1.

The 12th rivals the Travers for handicapping difficulty. At least 4 and maybe 5 horses with legitimate chances to win. If World Record gets an easy lead, he could win. He should have the lead, just not sure how much he will be pressed. Domestic Product and Prince of Monaco are good. Book’em Danno has won three in a row. He comes from off the pace. I will probably bet an Exacta box with World Record and Book’em Danno. If they run like most recent exactas they will run first and third, for which there is no current bet.

For the Travers I will wait to see the odds and probably bet whatever will pay the best. I am subject to being talked on or off a horse by Maggie Wolfendale, whose comments are usually right on.

As I type this I am watching GaTech play FSU. Rooting for GaTech to win. That is solely to put FSU in their place for suing the ACC to leave. They think they can get to the playoffs by joining the SEC? They are delusional!
Did you buy a lottery ticket?

GaTech would have paid well I think.

Nice handicapping. Society, Mulliken, and Domestic Product showed well.

Busy day yesterday. I had a horse named Maryland in a harness rotisserie type contest that I'm in, and he paid off at 17-1. Great Day!

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Travers Day 2024

I've picked out some interesting races that have the most familiar names (can't do that with 2YO races, but you can with the post KYD 3YOs). Note that there are more races on the page URLs that you might check out.

At Saratoga on Saturday... (there are a lot of 7f races today).

There is the Ballerina Stakes for 3YO and Up F (7f not 9F):
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 10; PPs ]
Not sure if Munny's Gold will be there, but Vahva will likely be the post time favorite; she is sharp as a tack right now. Scylla has been really good and lost to a tough Adare Manor last out. Accede and Society have credentials too. This is a 7f race, so these sprinters might not last. Great betting race. I would not pick Munny's Gold if she's in here.

I'll just mention that on the line above the Ballerina is a pointer to the Sword Dancer on the turf.

In the 12th is the H Allen Jerkins (7f), for 3YO male sprinters:
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 12; PPs ]
Another great race! Book'em Danno is possibly in (cross entered with another race mentioned upstream); he was life and death winning his last race at 1/5. But I don't think he was prepped for his best effort like he will be today. Lightly raced World Record will be a contender as will Prince Of Monaco, Little Ni,, and Domestic Product. Speak Easy is undefeated and has tremendous potential. I'd take Book'em Danno over Prince Of Monaco. The jockeys are all familiar names too.

The Forego is race 10 (7f):
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 10; PPs ]
I saw Forego win at 7f, so the race name is deserved; but Forego could win at any distance. Gun Pilot should be your race favorite. Mullikan is on a streak and will be competitive.

Race 13 is .. The Travers:
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Saratoga - Race 13; PPs ]
Thorpedo Anna is of course the interesting horse, but she will have to be at her best to win this. She has a 5 lb weight advantage and Dornoch, Fierceness, and Sierra Leone all have higher speed figures, but they don't always show up. Thorpedo Anna and Dornoch have been the most consistent really. But Thorpedo Anna has an X-Factor; she's not been challenged. To quote Victor Mature/Samson from 'Samson and Delilah', "who knows the strength of ropes that have never been tested?" Fierceness loves Saratoga. So I'm thinking that Fierceness, Dornoch, and Thorpedo Anna might be a good triple box. I'm thinking that Dornoch will take the lead with Fierceness stalking and Anna nearby. If Dornoch has enough of a lead, he won't be caught. Fierceness could run him down if he's within 1.5 lengths. Thorpedo Anna is a bit of a wild card, because she hasn't been tested. Sierra Leone has not shown that he can run down a superior horse, so I'll pass on him (famous last words). Should be exciting. My pick is Dornoch over Fierceness.

On the left coast is the Pat O'Brien Stakes:
[ URL above; Saturday August 24, 2024; Del Mar - Race 9; PPs ]
Pat O'Brien was an actor who, along with Bing Crosby, helped to build Del Mar. He also is best known for playing Knute Rockne in the movies;
The Gipper was played by Ronald Reagan in this movie; if you didn't know before, you know now where RR got his nickname. Does this mean Pat O'Brien was the (honorary) 5th horseman of Notre Dame?? But who was a better Rockne? O'Brien or Rudy?
Sorry.. But I digress. The Chosen Vron makes another appearance. Raging Torrent is in great shape and his speed figures are comparable. Senor Buscador makes an appearance too; this is the first race since he padded his earnings with big checks in the Middle East. He probably won't be sharp, but come from (way!) behind horses don't have his class. And besides, Senor Buscador is NOT a sprinter; unless he stalks the pace, he won't be able to catch up to the top 2 IMHO. I'm thinking that the Senor is in this race to help get him into shape; I'm leaving him out of the exacta. Vron over Torrent.

Any opinions? Fun Races!

Larry
DevilHorse

Society pulled away in the Ballerina.
Vahva didn't show; I mean she finished 3rd, but was not up to her usual standards. I foresee Munny's Gold as a 5.5 furlong turf sprinter; there's plenty of money there. Maybe she'll get 6 furlongs as she gets stronger; fast but limited filly. Looking forward to more foals of Covfefe.

Pace makes the race in the H Allen Jerkens:
The very hot pace cooked a few horses. This meant that the horses with good position would benefit as they passed the tiring front runners. Domestic Product was the winner. I thought Book'em Danno had a poor trip, but he also seemed out of gas at the end, finishing 3rd; but credit to the connections for going for the prestige and not just the money.

Mullikan ran away with the Forego:
Gun Pilot did not have the class today.

Fierceness won a contested Travers:
Thorpedo Anna needed another 50 yards to get passed Fierceness in an exciting finish. Great Great filly! Great call by the announcer. Dornoch needed more pace, but weakened early. Fierceness I thought had reasonable fractions. Sierra Leone seems to be this year's Sanhedrin; Sanhedrin was a big time closer in some of the 1977 (Seattle Slew) triple crown races and just never got up in time. Other horses of this ilk that come to mind include Cryptoclearance.

Raging Torrent defeated The Chosen Vron in a great battle:
The top 2 ran fast fractions; The Chosen Vron looked like he was going to pass, but Raging Torrent fought back. Note that Raging Torrent is a 3YO, and had a 7 lb weight advantage. Senor Buscador appeared to be getting a public workout with other races in mind before the BC Classic.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Society pulled away in the Ballerina.
Vahva didn't show; I mean she finished 3rd, but was not up to her usual standards. I foresee Munny's Gold as a 5.5 furlong turf sprinter; there's plenty of money there. Maybe she'll get 6 furlongs as she gets stronger; fast but limited filly. Looking forward to more foals of Covfefe.

Pace makes the race in the H Allen Jerkens:
The very hot pace cooked a few horses. This meant that the horses with good position would benefit as they passed the tiring front runners. Domestic Product was the winner. I thought Book'em Danno had a poor trip, but he also seemed out of gas at the end, finishing 3rd; but credit to the connections for going for the prestige and not just the money.

Mullikan ran away with the Forego:
Gun Pilot did not have the class today.

Fierceness won a contested Travers:
Thorpedo Anna needed another 50 yards to get passed Fierceness in an exciting finish. Great Great filly! Great call by the announcer. Dornoch needed more pace, but weakened early. Fierceness I thought had reasonable fractions. Sierra Leone seems to be this year's Sanhedrin; Sanhedrin was a big time closer in some of the 1977 (Seattle Slew) triple crown races and just never got up in time. Other horses of this ilk that come to mind include Cryptoclearance.

Raging Torrent defeated The Chosen Vron in a great battle:
The top 2 ran fast fractions; The Chosen Vron looked like he was going to pass, but Raging Torrent fought back. Note that Raging Torrent is a 3YO, and had a 7 lb weight advantage. Senor Buscador appeared to be getting a public workout with other races in mind before the BC Classic.

Larry
DevilHorse

With a busy day I only bet 4 races. As I said I seem to have really good luck with horses running for the second time in a year or so. The pattern I look for is how did they run first out. If like Society they ran well only to tire at the end, they become my bet of the day next time out. Then I would have had Mulliken as a single if I had bet a multi race ticket. The double with Society and Mulliken put me up for the day. I had a win bet on Book’em Danno so that was a loss, along with Danno being the second half of a double ticket. I had no faith in Fierceness, so I didn’t have him in my 3 horse exacta ticket, which had Anna, Sierra Leone and Dornoch. Having broken his good race bad race habit, Fierceness appears to be the best 3 year old colt. McPeek had said he wouldn’t run Anna again against the boys, but her race was so good you have to wonder. What blew my mind was Sierra Leone being the favorite. I think some of that relates to the Fox team always praising Chad Brown, who remains winless in the Travers. Yes I had him in my exacta because he usually runs in the money, but my win bet in this race was Dornoch, who I thought before the race was the best 3 year old colt. Maybe now Chad Brown will quit blaming Tyler Gafflione for Sierra not winning the Derby. Congrats to Tyler for a great, not good, Saratoga meet.

One other comment, is it my imagination or is Baffert not winning the races he seemed to always win in the past? It could be he simply doesn’t have as good horses right now. Or possibly as he has aged he has lost the edge. Or, now that his horses have to run clean, they simply don’t run as well. Inquiring minds want to know.
 
With a busy day I only bet 4 races. As I said I seem to have really good luck with horses running for the second time in a year or so. The pattern I look for is how did they run first out. If like Society they ran well only to tire at the end, they become my bet of the day next time out. Then I would have had Mulliken as a single if I had bet a multi race ticket. The double with Society and Mulliken put me up for the day. I had a win bet on Book’em Danno so that was a loss, along with Danno being the second half of a double ticket. I had no faith in Fierceness, so I didn’t have him in my 3 horse exacta ticket, which had Anna, Sierra Leone and Dornoch. Having broken his good race bad race habit, Fierceness appears to be the best 3 year old colt. McPeek had said he wouldn’t run Anna again against the boys, but her race was so good you have to wonder. What blew my mind was Sierra Leone being the favorite. I think some of that relates to the Fox team always praising Chad Brown, who remains winless in the Travers. Yes I had him in my exacta because he usually runs in the money, but my win bet in this race was Dornoch, who I thought before the race was the best 3 year old colt. Maybe now Chad Brown will quit blaming Tyler Gafflione for Sierra not winning the Derby. Congrats to Tyler for a great, not good, Saratoga meet.

One other comment, is it my imagination or is Baffert not winning the races he seemed to always win in the past? It could be he simply doesn’t have as good horses right now. Or possibly as he has aged he has lost the edge. Or, now that his horses have to run clean, they simply don’t run as well. Inquiring minds want to know.
It may be that Baffert has lost (a few years with) owners. No entry rights at CD, and sometimes the NY tracks, will lose you some people or $. I imagine he was a big buyer at Saratoga and upcoming at Keeneland's yearling sales.

I totally agree with your comment about Sierra Leone being the favorite. I was talking to the TV saying "Why? Why?"

How do you tell the difference between a horse that happens to win a race at a track and a 'horse for the course'? I think it is likely Fierceness is one AH4TC; or he could just be maturing. It used to be that it took 20 starts for a horse to 'get it'; there are no top 3YOs with 20 starts, so we have to guess on this point.

Book'em Danno ran a good race, but had some bad luck. Also consider that his first race after the Middle East was a win on Haskell Day that he was life and death against an inferior horse. Perhaps Middle East residual fatigue. His sire Bucchero has thrown a few other Stakes horses from a NJ bred pack of mares; that is a herculean feat. But sometimes sires appear out of nowhere, but Bucchero might be a better sire than originally thought, and Book'em Danno is just the 'canary in the coalmine' (in a positive sense).


Larry
DevilHorse
 
As anyone who reads the horse racing forum will know I love Kentucky Downs. The most unique track in North America. So with the proliferation of slots machines in Kentucky huge amounts of money are flowing to race tracks. The Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund collects money from all slots and distributes it toward purses at all the Kentucky tracks. Then the tracks have to distribute some percentage of their individual slot handle to their races. So every year the purses at Kentucky Downs get bigger. This year a maiden race, which is a race for horses who have never won a race will pay $170,000, meaning the winner will receive $102,000. There is one caveat, to get your share of the entire purse the horse has to be a Kentucky bred. What is different this year is that more and more of the purse money comes from the individual track’s casino and that money is available regardless of where the horse was bred. So this year $90,000 of the maiden purse is available to any horse, regardless of where it was bred, which is a higher amount than any track excepting the New York tracks. By the way if you didn’t know, the vast majority of well bred horses are Kentucky breds, so there are plenty of horses who qualify for the big money. What I see this year is as the purses have grown more horses who are not Kentucky breds are competing. As an example the feature race this Saturday has a $3,100,000 purse for a Kentucky bred, and a $1,900,000 million purse for a non Kentucky bred. That’s a Breeders Cup size purse. So not surprisingly a horse from Great Britain is entered. The top jockeys from New York and California are coming in to ride skipping what I believe is the last Saturday of Saratoga’s meet. The top trainers in North America are bringing in horses, most of whom are admittedly second tier. I suspect even that will change over time as the purses are simply too big to be ignored for any owner not already a billionaire. Who could have imagined that ten years ago.
 
As anyone who reads the horse racing forum will know I love Kentucky Downs. The most unique track in North America. So with the proliferation of slots machines in Kentucky huge amounts of money are flowing to race tracks. The Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund collects money from all slots and distributes it toward purses at all the Kentucky tracks. Then the tracks have to distribute some percentage of their individual slot handle to their races. So every year the purses at Kentucky Downs get bigger. This year a maiden race, which is a race for horses who have never won a race will pay $170,000, meaning the winner will receive $102,000. There is one caveat, to get your share of the entire purse the horse has to be a Kentucky bred. What is different this year is that more and more of the purse money comes from the individual track’s casino and that money is available regardless of where the horse was bred. So this year $90,000 of the maiden purse is available to any horse, regardless of where it was bred, which is a higher amount than any track excepting the New York tracks. By the way if you didn’t know, the vast majority of well bred horses are Kentucky breds, so there are plenty of horses who qualify for the big money. What I see this year is as the purses have grown more horses who are not Kentucky breds are competing. As an example the feature race this Saturday has a $3,100,000 purse for a Kentucky bred, and a $1,900,000 million purse for a non Kentucky bred. That’s a Breeders Cup size purse. So not surprisingly a horse from Great Britain is entered. The top jockeys from New York and California are coming in to ride skipping what I believe is the last Saturday of Saratoga’s meet. The top trainers in North America are bringing in horses, most of whom are admittedly second tier. I suspect even that will change over time as the purses are simply too big to be ignored for any owner not already a billionaire. Who could have imagined that ten years ago.
One factor that is not totally clear to me is what is a "Kentucky-bred".

For Standardbreds (beneficiaries of the slots money too), you have to be either sired by a Kentucky residing stallion and/or foaled in Kentucky. That means you have the potential to be X-bred in 2 states if your Dad is in one state and you're born in another. This happens. Standardbreds also have artificial insemination and semen transport. Kentucky breds are being created and foaled in europe every spring.

For Thoroughbreds it is a little murky. I found documents that say you have to be sired by a registered Kentucky Stallion, the mare has to reside during the entire pregnancy in KY, and be born in KY.

Perhaps different rules for different sports, but confusing.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Authentic

Authentic has not had the first crop results that he wanted. Out of 160 foals, he has 3 winners so far. But yesterday he had his first stakes winner in daughter Charlotte's Heart:
This filly, making her first start, shows a decent turn of foot on the turf, much like her half brother Casa Creed (who just retired). Charlotte's Heart was a $725k yearling.

Thorpedo Anna's connections have mentioned that she will run exclusively against other fillies for the rest of the year.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Saturday and Fragmented Weekend

We have a few interesting races this weekend and this will culminate with the Hopeful at Saratoga. I'll post with updates as PPs come available for any Sunday/Monday races.

On Saturday..

At Saratoga is the Prioress for 3YO fillies:
[ URL above; Saturday August 31, 2024; Saratoga - Race 10; PPs ]
This race is for sprinters and it marks the return of Brightwork to the track. If you recall (or even if you don't) Brightwork was going to race in some of the high profile races earlier in the meet, but she spiked a temperature just before the race. Welcome back! Brightwork won last year's Spinaway and then took on the top fillies with mediocre results. Two Sharp flashed great talent in her 2nd start and can hit the board. Irad chose Miuccia over Tricky Temper. Tricky Temper is sharp, but takes a hit with a lesser jockey.

The aforementioned Spinaway, for 2YO fillies, is next:
[ URL above; Saturday August 31, 2024; Saratoga - Race 11; PPs ]
The Queens M G is the 500 lb girlrilla in this race. Other than one hiccup, she's been the leader in the division. Quietside and Bellacose have a good chance to hit the board. Just remember that 2YOs change so much; if you like another horse, with big odds, take a shot.

For you turfers, I offer up the $3.1M race at Kentucky Downs called the Nashville Derby:
[ URL above; Saturday August 31, 2024; Kentucky Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
No further comment. Tons of mediocre horses for outrageously high purses. But you know these horses are not tuning up for their next race.

They will be running the Pacific Classic at Del Mar with an interesting twist:
[ URL above; Saturday August 31, 2024; Del Mar - Race 10; PPs ]
With echoes of the Travers and Thorpedo Anna, Baffert is sending out Adare Castle to tangle with the boys. Adare Castle is Grade I talent, while the other horses in the field (so far) appear to be at best Grade II or Grade III talent. Il Miracolo looks like comparable speed, but Adare Castle is getting a 5-6 lbs break, and she loves Del Mar. A negative for Adare Castle is that she has not gone 1 1/4 miles, but that is not likely to bother her.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Saturday and Fragmented Weekend

We have a few interesting races this weekend and this will culminate with the Hopeful at Saratoga. I'll post with updates as PPs come available for any Sunday/Monday races.

On Saturday..

At Saratoga is the Prioress for 3YO fillies:
[ URL above; Saturday August 31, 2024; Saratoga - Race 10; PPs ]
This race is for sprinters and it marks the return of Brightwork to the track. If you recall (or even if you don't) Brightwork was going to race in some of the high profile races earlier in the meet, but she spiked a temperature just before the race. Welcome back! Brightwork won last year's Spinaway and then took on the top fillies with mediocre results. Two Sharp flashed great talent in her 2nd start and can hit the board. Irad chose Miuccia over Tricky Temper. Tricky Temper is sharp, but takes a hit with a lesser jockey.

The aforementioned Spinaway, for 2YO fillies, is next:
[ URL above; Saturday August 31, 2024; Saratoga - Race 11; PPs ]
The Queens M G is the 500 lb girlrilla in this race. Other than one hiccup, she's been the leader in the division. Quietside and Bellacose have a good chance to hit the board. Just remember that 2YOs change so much; if you like another horse, with big odds, take a shot.

For you turfers, I offer up the $3.1M race at Kentucky Downs called the Nashville Derby:
[ URL above; Saturday August 31, 2024; Kentucky Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
No further comment. Tons of mediocre horses for outrageously high purses. But you know these horses are not tuning up for their next race.

They will be running the Pacific Classic at Del Mar with an interesting twist:
[ URL above; Saturday August 31, 2024; Del Mar - Race 10; PPs ]
With echoes of the Travers and Thorpedo Anna, Baffert is sending out Adare Castle to tangle with the boys. Adare Castle is Grade I talent, while the other horses in the field (so far) appear to be at best Grade II or Grade III talent. Il Miracolo looks like comparable speed, but Adare Castle is getting a 5-6 lbs break, and she loves Del Mar. A negative for Adare Castle is that she has not gone 1 1/4 miles, but that is not likely to bother her.

Larry
DevilHorse
Can’t disagree with your comments about the newly named Nashville Derby. However, as there are no big name three year old turf races these horses have no opportunity to become famous. It seems only older turf horses have a chance to gain some notoriety. It seems to me three horses stand out, but after cashing very few tickets on opening day today I may be a very poor judge of a good turf horse. Back to Saturday, Cameo Performance is a lightly raced three year old who has improved every race and whose record is two wins, one second out of only four races. Chad Brown has a lightly raced horse named White Palomino. He has placed in two Grade Two races, but both were small fields. His speed figures are not great. Carson’s Run is the most accomplished with two Grade 1 victories and a total of 4 wins out of 7 races. The European invaders look mediocre to me. Stromberg has run third in a G 3, perhaps that is better than the competition in this race.


You can make an argument the Pacific Classic with a large purse has fairly mediocre horses excepting the excellent Adare Manor. My expectation is that really good horses win the majority of their races. When they don’t win they need to be competitive at the finish of the race. Adare Manor is the only horse who qualifies as a really good horse. The Travers last weekend had really good horses!
 
Can’t disagree with your comments about the newly named Nashville Derby. However, as there are no big name three year old turf races these horses have no opportunity to become famous. It seems only older turf horses have a chance to gain some notoriety. It seems to me three horses stand out, but after cashing very few tickets on opening day today I may be a very poor judge of a good turf horse. Back to Saturday, Cameo Performance is a lightly raced three year old who has improved every race and whose record is two wins, one second out of only four races. Chad Brown has a lightly raced horse named White Palomino. He has placed in two Grade Two races, but both were small fields. His speed figures are not great. Carson’s Run is the most accomplished with two Grade 1 victories and a total of 4 wins out of 7 races. The European invaders look mediocre to me. Stromberg has run third in a G 3, perhaps that is better than the competition in this race.


You can make an argument the Pacific Classic with a large purse has fairly mediocre horses excepting the excellent Adare Manor. My expectation is that really good horses win the majority of their races. When they don’t win they need to be competitive at the finish of the race. Adare Manor is the only horse who qualifies as a really good horse. The Travers last weekend had really good horses!

I guess historically owners mostly look at turf racing as the secondary choice if the dirt does not produce good results. Of course there are turf sires/mares where a horse's destiny is determined (i.e., most anything from Europe).
Perhaps it would be nice if there was a turf triple crown, with a turf trail early in the 3YO year, where young turf horses can get some spotlight put on them. There is money around so why not focus it more strategically.

The Standardbreds have trotters and pacers where trotters are historically more notable, but there are twice as many pacers (which are easier to train and maintain). The public shouldn't have a problem keeping parallel sub-divisions of thoroughbreds in their mind. But all of these horses have to race enough to be present in fan's minds.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
I guess historically owners mostly look at turf racing as the secondary choice if the dirt does not produce good results. Of course there are turf sires/mares where a horse's destiny is determined (i.e., most anything from Europe).
Perhaps it would be nice if there was a turf triple crown, with a turf trail early in the 3YO year, where young turf horses can get some spotlight put on them. There is money around so why not focus it more strategically.

The Standardbreds have trotters and pacers where trotters are historically more notable, but there are twice as many pacers (which are easier to train and maintain). The public shouldn't have a problem keeping parallel sub-divisions of thoroughbreds in their mind. But all of these horses have to race enough to be present in fan's minds.

Larry
DevilHorse
I think the idea of a 3 year old turf Triple Crown is a great idea. Have one leg in Florida in the spring, one in Kentucky and one in New York. I think Kentucky Downs would like to grow the Nashville Derby into a major three year old turf race, thus the huge purse this year. In looking at turf races around the country this weekend why wouldn’t you take your best horses to Ky. Downs where the purses are many times larger than anything else in the country. If I have a really good turf horse why would I run for $300,000 or less when I can run for a million or more? Horse racing has always had a high degree of snobbery, see Seabisquit for proof. But for trainers and jockeys and most owners, it’s still about the money.

The other thing that came to mind is I bet few casual horse players can even name a famous US turf race. I can only name two, the Arlington million which was an early million dollar race and the United Nations. And I can’t even tell you where the UN was run without looking at Wiki.

I don’t like turf racing better than dirt racing, but as a casual fan I like the aesthetics of a horse running on the turf. It reminds me of my youth at law school at UK and driving around the farms watching horses play and run in the fields as free entertainment.

Having now looked at the charts from yesterday at Kentucky Downs I have a few observations. The track was fair with four front runners winning, another close up and in the lead at the second call, and then closers from far and near. The idea that first time starters don’t win was dispelled in the third race when the only first timer in the race with 12 horses won and then two races later when first time starters ran 1,2,3. I will admit that when handicapping I totally overlooked the first timers. Four favorites won out of 11 so 27%, about the average at KD. Mattt Caruthers had two long shot picks, a 15/1 in the first race and a 20/1 in the 9th, Bedazzle, who actually made some sense to me in hindsight. I’m going to start handicapping this morning to get ready for tomorrow.
 
I think the idea of a 3 year old turf Triple Crown is a great idea. Have one leg in Florida in the spring, one in Kentucky and one in New York. I think Kentucky Downs would like to grow the Nashville Derby into a major three year old turf race, thus the huge purse this year. In looking at turf races around the country this weekend why wouldn’t you take your best horses to Ky. Downs where the purses are many times larger than anything else in the country. If I have a really good turf horse why would I run for $300,000 or less when I can run for a million or more? Horse racing has always had a high degree of snobbery, see Seabisquit for proof. But for trainers and jockeys and most owners, it’s still about the money.

The other thing that came to mind is I bet few casual horse players can even name a famous US turf race. I can only name two, the Arlington million which was an early million dollar race and the United Nations. And I can’t even tell you where the UN was run without looking at Wiki.

I don’t like turf racing better than dirt racing, but as a casual fan I like the aesthetics of a horse running on the turf. It reminds me of my youth at law school at UK and driving around the farms watching horses play and run in the fields as free entertainment.

Having now looked at the charts from yesterday at Kentucky Downs I have a few observations. The track was fair with four front runners winning, another close up and in the lead at the second call, and then closers from far and near. The idea that first time starters don’t win was dispelled in the third race when the only first timer in the race with 12 horses won and then two races later when first time starters ran 1,2,3. I will admit that when handicapping I totally overlooked the first timers. Four favorites won out of 11 so 27%, about the average at KD. Mattt Caruthers had two long shot picks, a 15/1 in the first race and a 20/1 in the 9th, Bedazzle, who actually made some sense to me in hindsight. I’m going to start handicapping this morning to get ready for tomorrow.

When I first heard of the United Nations, it was run at (the now defunct) Atlantic City Racetrack. Now it is run at Monmouth. I've also been to the UN in NY. BTW, the governor of NJ just signed a new lease for Monmouth Racetrack with the people running it now. It is an 85 year lease. Good to see some confidence in the return of horse racing in this state. Just keep Chris Christie away from anything (like a horse) that he can put on a bun.

Matt Caruthers is fun; never bets chalk.

Thumbs up on ponies running anywhere. I most enjoy being in a field of mares with their foals. Bring carrots and you can make friends.

It occurred to me last week that there has been a proliferation of races with the word Derby at the end. Last week was St. Louis Derby (first time I heard of it; the 4th running). Now the Nashville Derby. As soon as there's a Podunk Derby I will at it to my list of oxymorons.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: News and Sunday's PPs

Unfortunately, the great Adare Manor has been scratched from the Pacific Classic. Baffert says she's not 100%. I wholeheartedly agree with the scratch.

Sunday at Saratoga is the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This used to be one of the big races where 3YOs met older horses, later in the fall at the Belmont meet. Now it is just another race with a decent purse:
[ URL above; August 31, 2024; Saratoga - Race 12; PPs ]
Some good and well known horses in here. Tapit Trice tries to make it 2 in a row, but the company is better. Alas no 3YOs. Arthur's Ride is in here; it looks like Bill Mott may have solved the issues with him. Both are sons of Tapit and can get a 1 1/4 mile race. This was once a 2 mile race, then shortened to 1 1/2 mile. With the advent of the Breeder's Cup, the JCGC became a prep race for that. Some might remember when this race was once Seattle Slew vs. Affirmed, but was won by Exceller by a nose over Seattle Slew (Affirmed was 5th due to an equipment malfunction). Other winners include Man O' War, Kelso (5 times), Curlin (2 times), Citation, War Admiral, and Forego.

At Del Mar is the Shared Belief for 3YOs:
[ URL above; August 31, 2024; Del Mar - Race 7; PPs ]
Muth makes his first start since the Arkansas Derby; he led the 3YO division for a while. Indispensable looks like he can hit the board.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Monday is Hopeful

Just one race (so far) for Monday. That is the Hopeful at Saratoga for 2YOs:
[ URL above; Monday September 2, 2024; Saratoga - Race 10; PPs ]
The favorite is likely to be a Pletcher trainee, owned by Mike Repole, whose name is 1 word and starts with an 'F'. No, it won't be Fierceness (the Travers and Belmont winner) but Ferocious; Ferocious has one race, but by far the best speed figure. But that race was in the mud. So was it a fluke? (sorry, but a fish in the mud seemed.. appropriate). There are a few winners, who could be just as good; Chancer Mcpatrick exploded in the stretch. Mentee won his only start, but has an interesting story; apparently Mentee came down with a bout of Laminitis. Laminitis is a dreaded word because it is potentially causes major hoof problems and in the worst case is a fatal disease (killed Secretariat). But this horse not only survived, but got better enough to return to the races in short order. I'm rooting for Mentee!

Larry
DevilHorse
 
I’m going to try again with Kentucky Downs. Based on my opening day handicapping you may want to ignore my advice. In the feature $3.1 million Nashville Derby I have changed my opinion on the best British invader, now favoring Bellum Justum. He has finished in the money in his last two races, both Group 3’s. He appears in good form and has Frankie Dettori riding him. Never thought I would see Dettori at Kentucky Downs. Carson’s Run is coming off his best race ever a Grade 1 win in the Saratoga Derby. Another horse coming off his best win ever is Cameo Performance with a 95 speed figure in a lesser race at Ellis Park. White Palomino is interesting having just lost to Trikari a very good three year old turf horse. His speed figures are not impressive but could improve.

In the 9th, the Ladies Turf Sprint, a G2 race I like Danse Macabre. This is her second race this year. She just missed in her last race at Saratoga by a neck in a G3 stakes race. The horse that beat her is in this race, Dontllokbackatall, but Danse Macabre should improve, plus she loves Kentucky Downs having won a stakes race as a two year old and then running second last year in a similar quality race at the track.

My final selection is Implicated in the 10th, The Ladies Turf mile, a grade 3 stakes race. She has won her last 2 races and has only raced 3 times this year. Walkathon has won two in a row also, but is probably not fast enough. These picks in race 9 and 10 are 6/1 in the morning line so not the favorites. That could mean I am totally off base, but that’s the challenge that makes handicapping my favorite brain exercise.
 
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