Horse Racing 2024

The Chosen Vron is out of the BC. He apparently couldn't pass a Vet's inspection.

There are races of interest this week, but they obviously involve horses not destined for the BC this year.

On Saturday is the Mother Goose Stakes at Aqueduct:
[ URL above; Saturday October 26, 2024; Belmont At The Big A - Race 10; PPs ]
Tarifa was one of the top rated fillies entering this year, and was the favorite in the KY Oaks, but she failed miserably and has only picked up a couple of checks since. She obviously had a physical issue. Gun Song has been sharper. Pretty Anna has good ratings. I'd pick a Gun Song/Tarifa/Pretty Anna triple. The Mother Goose has been a step child of the NYRA racing schedule. It used to be a mainstay of the Triple Tiara, but lately has been a race in the fall for non-BC 3YO fillies. This race is named after a horse, not the nursery rhymes.


Larry
DevilHorse
Tarifa was terrific in the Mother Goose:
Tarifa won an Affirmed/Alydar type battle over Gun Song.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Breeders Cup Seminar at the DRF

Steve Christ and Andy Beyer.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
There are races of interest this week, but they obviously involve horses not destined for the BC this year.


On Sunday I found an interesting race, named after Street Sense for 2YOs:
[ URL above; Sunday October 27, 2024; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
The richest 2YO in the country (until next week's BC) is Tiztastic; this horse didn't do well on the dirt in his first lifetime start, but excelled in his next 2 starts which happened to be on the turf. This race is back on the dirt. You can try to beat him with Dapper Moon, who was in against BC Juvenile horses last time out.

Larry
DevilHorse

Want to see what a real last-to-first move looks like? Check out Sovereignty who won the Street Sense:
This race also awarded 10 KYD points for 2025 to the winner. Tiztastic was a lackluster 2nd.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Breeder's Cup 2024 PPs and some News

Word is that Idiomatic (retired) and National Treasure (injured) are both out of the Breeder's Cup.

Here are pointers to pages that have the Friday's BC PPs:

Friday Nov 1 2024 at Del Mar

Race 6 – BC Juvenile Turf Sprint 2YO


Race 7 – BC Juv Fillies 2YOF


Race 8 – BC Juv Fillies Turf 2YOF


Race 9 – BC Juvenile 2YO


Race 10 - BC Juv Turf 2YO

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/PeterMiller/MILLER+PETER/9999/summary.html

I assume you will not need my additional information to find the Del Mar entries on Friday Nov 1.

Larry
DevilHorse
Just so there's no mis-understanding, these PPs (for the moment) have entrants listed in alphabetical order. The post position draw will be done on Monday evening (10/28/2024).

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Thanks as always for the links. Maybe Next is the older gelding that racing has been missing. The consistent older horse who always gives a good effort and wins most of the time. Worried 1 1/4 mile may not be long enough. I think I heard on Fan Duel yesterday that the BC Juvenile Champion has never come back the next year to win the the BC Championship as an older horse. So Fierceness will have to beat history to win the Championship. He made a believer of me in his last race. Don’t really know how to judge the foreign horses, but Forever Young will get my attention. His Ky Derby race was great and he appears to have improved since. City of Troy, who has only raced on grass, is the great unknown.

Yesterday was Stars of Tomorrow at Churchill Downs. I wasn’t going to watch or bet. Still upset about the football game. But when I started checking the form certain horses just stood out. Plus with 2 year olds not too much information to digest which was appealing as I was worn out with Keeneland handicapping. The two year olds were very consistent with their form, excepting just a few races which costs me 2 pick fives. The two year old colt, Sovereignty, which you posted the video of, looked good. Not sure why Tiztastic was entered since he appears to be a turf horse, but maybe Asmussen and DevilHorse have something in common in preferring dirt horses. Cogburn would definitely be the exception to that observation. Couldn’t help but contrast Keeneland and Churchill with huge fields and Santa Anita with so many 5 and 6 horse fields. From a betting standpoint love the big fields where you get decent payouts even with the favorites in your exotic wagers. The daily double, now with every race, has become my goto bet. While I used to be content to get $4 on a $2 bet, now I try to get bigger payouts so the percentage of cashing tickets, what a quaint concept, is lower while the payouts are higher. Keeneland was only taking 15% out of the doubles bets so the payouts were even better.

Now gonna handicap the BC races then retire from racing until the important three year old races crank up this winter.

Not sure how the Duke/Miami game will impact my BC watching on Saturday. In the future could we move our bye week to the BC weekend?
 
DevilHorse interested in your take on Chancer McPatrick vs. East Avenue. I was watching the day East Avenue debuted at Ellis. He was impressive. If you use Ferocious for comparison then East Ave is my choice. Jonathan’s Way has been impressive but not sure of who has run against. Baffert has Gaming and Citizen Bull. Gaming has not raced past 7furlongs so a little more risky to bet. As usual will be rooting against Baffert.
 
Thanks as always for the links. Maybe Next is the older gelding that racing has been missing. The consistent older horse who always gives a good effort and wins most of the time. Worried 1 1/4 mile may not be long enough. I think I heard on Fan Duel yesterday that the BC Juvenile Champion has never come back the next year to win the the BC Championship as an older horse. So Fierceness will have to beat history to win the Championship. He made a believer of me in his last race. Don’t really know how to judge the foreign horses, but Forever Young will get my attention. His Ky Derby race was great and he appears to have improved since. City of Troy, who has only raced on grass, is the great unknown.

Yesterday was Stars of Tomorrow at Churchill Downs. I wasn’t going to watch or bet. Still upset about the football game. But when I started checking the form certain horses just stood out. Plus with 2 year olds not too much information to digest which was appealing as I was worn out with Keeneland handicapping. The two year olds were very consistent with their form, excepting just a few races which costs me 2 pick fives. The two year old colt, Sovereignty, which you posted the video of, looked good. Not sure why Tiztastic was entered since he appears to be a turf horse, but maybe Asmussen and DevilHorse have something in common in preferring dirt horses. Cogburn would definitely be the exception to that observation. Couldn’t help but contrast Keeneland and Churchill with huge fields and Santa Anita with so many 5 and 6 horse fields. From a betting standpoint love the big fields where you get decent payouts even with the favorites in your exotic wagers. The daily double, now with every race, has become my goto bet. While I used to be content to get $4 on a $2 bet, now I try to get bigger payouts so the percentage of cashing tickets, what a quaint concept, is lower while the payouts are higher. Keeneland was only taking 15% out of the doubles bets so the payouts were even better.

Now gonna handicap the BC races then retire from racing until the important three year old races crank up this winter.

Not sure how the Duke/Miami game will impact my BC watching on Saturday. In the future could we move our bye week to the BC weekend?
Your welcome.

Why would a BC Juv Champion (unless he was a turf horse ;^) come back as an aged horse? The only BC Juv winner to win the KYD was Street Sense and Justify. They couldn't retire him soon enough with nothing left to prove and insurance payments, per start, that were no doubt astronomical. Perhaps if we have a gelding win the race (none so far). The BC Juv winner that raced the longest was/is Storm The Court; who hasn't won a race since being a 2YO and he continues to race this year (4 starts) as a 7 year old (not yet a gelding). I remember a 2YO Standardbred that was a champion, then he encountered a better horse as a 3YO and had a lackluster record. He came back at 4 and was a champion caliber horse (again); Artsplace was his name and he became a great sire!

Next is an interesting horse.

How to judge the foreign horses? There are only 80 of them. Perhaps this will help a little:

BTW, Cogburn is going to be a duel hemisphere sire next year (at stud in Australia and the US), so no time off for that poor weary horse.

Well, do you consider the 2YO races important enough to watch? KYD points awarded for a bunch of such races that have produced triple crown race winners in recent years (I'm thinking the Remsen).

I don't think they have quality sires in California (or any of the middle/western states). That's why Baffert does so well; he races few if any California breds (but just a few). California produces more thoroughbreds than either California, New York, or Florida; they should have bigger fields, but perhaps the California State Bred races are so enticing they don't run in open company.

I think you're in luck with the Duke/Miami football game. That looks to be a 12 noon contest (according to the internet), while the 4th race at Del Mar starts at 3:00 Eastern. Almost no overlap!

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Juicy offerings at Wednesday's Keeneland Championship Sale.
25% of Book'em Danno
1/40 of Flightline
1/40 of Cogburn - Since Cogburn will be breeding in Australia during the late summer and fall, I assume you get 1/40 of the profit from stud fees.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Breeder's Cup 2024 Pre-Entries

Here are the Pre-Entries for Breeder's Cup 2024 - Day 1 - Friday Nov 1

Here are the Pre-Entries for Breeder's Cup 2024 - Day 2 - Saturday Nov 2

Also Eligibles (AEs) have a decent chance of drawing in since: Horses get sick, some Horses are entered in 2 races.

I noticed that Dapper Moon is entered in the BC Juvenile. He is slated to run this weekend. We will see.

Larry
DevilHorse
Post Positions were drawn yesterday evening:

Friday's (Juvenile) races:

Saturday's races:

The links to the PPs appear (now) to be updated with Post Positions (yet another PP). I hope you didn't print out the old links :^)

Larry
Devilhorse
 
Post Positions were drawn yesterday evening:

Friday's (Juvenile) races:

Saturday's races:

The links to the PPs (in Briswatch) appear (now) to be updated with Post Positions (yet another PP). I hope you didn't print out the old links :^)

Larry
Devilhorse
 
Subject: 2025 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

Are you ready for next year's KYD?
PPs for the future pool are on this page:

You can get some good odds, but the winner is likely not here.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: 2025 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

Are you ready for next year's KYD?
PPs for the future pool are on this page:

You can get some good odds, but the winner is likely not here (yet).

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Some BC Stuff:

Below is the time and TV schedule for Friday's BC:
BCfriSched24.gif

Here is the Saturday time and TV Schedule:

BCsatSched24.gif

Just a comment here.
Looking at the various PPs, it is somewhat irritating to have to deal with the lack of information for foreign runners. I have no clue, based on the PPs, if the favorite for the Classic is a come from behind horse or front runner. I will say if the lack of information on foreign entries is a failure of the horse racing industry to treat the horses equally, and therefore the bettors are a bit more confused. We have to deal with horses, like City Of Troy, who just got out of quarantine (required for all foreign horses) on Tuesday, who most of us have never heard of, but don't even have data on par with other horses in the race. The europeans and Japanese may like betting on horses with less data, but I'm more likely to hold back my participation. No doubt the foreign horses will be underlays because bettors are less likely to put money on a horse with less information.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Last edited:
Some BC Stuff:

Below is the time and TV schedule for Friday's BC:
View attachment 18523

Here is the Saturday time and TV Schedule:

View attachment 18524

Just a comment here.
Looking at the various PPs, it is somewhat irritating to have to deal with the lack of information for foreign runners. I have no clue, based on the PPs, if the favorite for the Classic is a come from behind horse or front runner. I will say if the lack of information on foreign entries is a failure of the horse racing industry to treat the horses equally, and therefore the bettors are a bit more confused. We have to deal with horses, like City Of Troy, who just got out of quarantine (required for all foreign horses) on Tuesday, who most of us have never heard of, but don't even have data on par with other horses in the race. The europeans and Japanese may like betting on horses with less data, but I'm more likely to hold back my participation. No doubt the foreign horses will be underlays because bettors are less likely to put money on a horse with less information.

Larry
DevilHorse
You are absolutely correct. In reading various articles I did see a reference to Timeform which I believe is a handicapping tool I don’t know much about. I refuse to pay for multiple forms of information. So like you I am left in the dark. In earlier races this year with European entries the only information I could use was comparing how horses had run in the various classes of Group 1, 2 or 3 stakes. That gave me some indication of the class of the horse but nothing about running style. I will offer this advice about the Juvenile Turf sprint. Eight of 12 horses entered are either European or Japanese. The American horses will not win this race.
 
Have now tried to handicap the first day of the BC. As previously discussed handicapping the first BC race which is race 6 is difficult. My choice is #2 Aesterius. He has already beaten Big Mojo. He has two straight wins in a G2 and G3. I read elsewhere that Whistlejacket, wasn’t he on Bridgerton, is better on soft turf. There will be no soft turf at DelMar.

Race 7, the BC Juvenile fillies brings together the best of California, New York and Kentucky. The question to me is Baffert’s horses. They have the home field advantage but are they the best horses. The three favorites are Immersive, Non Compliant and Scottish Lassie. I lean toward Immersive, but will wait to see the horses in the paddock and on the track plus what are the odds. This should be a good race. If one of those three doesn’t win it will be an upset.

The 8th race features an undefeated Lake Victoria who has won two Group 1’s. But she has never been a mile or around any turns. The American horses will be long shots. Thought Process the California based horse is probably the best American horse. If I were to bet an American I would go with long odds on Kilwin or May Day Ready. If Lake Victoria runs her race she should win.

The best race of the day is the 9th, the BC Juvenile Championship. Number 1 East Avenue reminds me of one of my favorite horses, Essential Quality, only two races, both in Kentucky. The difference is EQ ran in the BC at Keeneland. East Ave has to travel to California. East Avenue has won at the distance a big plus for me. I’m still leaning toward him. #5, Jonathan’s Way is undefeated but won in a one turn mile at Churchill Downs against lesser competition. He has run good times and beat Owen Almighty a good horse. #7, Gaming, is Baffert’s best hope. He is undefeated at Del Mar so has the home field advantage. But he has never run past 7 furlongs. Chancer McPatrick is undefeated with three wins. He has never been past 1 mile, but is a huge closer so distance shouldn’t be a problem. Some concerns in some corners that he has to have some racing luck, but Pratt is at the top of his game. With four strong contenders the odds should be good on all of them. If you can hit the exacta you will have a good day.

The last race is 1 mile on the turf with a lot of foreign invaders. The best American trained horse is an Irish bred who won his first race in France, #5 Zulu Kingdom. He is 3/3. He has already beaten #3 and#14, but only by a neck each time. I’ll probably save my money for Saturday’s races and sit this on out.
 
You are absolutely correct. In reading various articles I did see a reference to Timeform which I believe is a handicapping tool I don’t know much about. I refuse to pay for multiple forms of information. So like you I am left in the dark. In earlier races this year with European entries the only information I could use was comparing how horses had run in the various classes of Group 1, 2 or 3 stakes. That gave me some indication of the class of the horse but nothing about running style. I will offer this advice about the Juvenile Turf sprint. Eight of 12 horses entered are either European or Japanese. The American horses will not win this race.
There was a time when horses traveling to the US from oversees greatly underperformed (assumed that the trip hurt them physically). Not so much anymore. Horses going from the US to oversees (UK for Royal Ascot; Saudi Cup, Dubai) used to have similar problems, but not as much now; but when the horses return to the US they underperform in their next (delayed) start. I always assumed it was a deeper track taking its toll, but that's not an issue on the grass.

Of note is that there is not that much of a difference in breeding. i.e., US Horse of the Year, Brick and Mortar, was owned by the Japanese and is at stud there. Not to be confused with A.P. Indy who was Japanese owned but stayed at stud here.

Here's some food for thought on Timeform vs. Beyer:

I'm sure you'd rather read the PPs than the second of the above articles.

For neophytes, here is a higher level article comparing several of the more popular speed figures:

Larry
DevilHorse
 
One of my favorite jokes.. "This coffee tastes like dirt! <server> That's funny, it was ground this morning."
In that spirit, here are my picks for only the dirt races on Friday. Pointers provided upstream.

2YO Juvenile Fillies (Race 7):
I'm not sure where the speed is in this race; Vodka With A Twist has shown early speed, but Irad is not likely to use if for long. He has to slow it down for this horse to last. If the race is slowed down, it becomes a crap shoot. But assuming there is pace, I like Scottish Lassie over Non-Compliant and Immersive.


2YO Juvenile Open (Race 9):
Chancer McPatrick, East Avenue, and Citizen Bull are my picks in order. Johnathan's Way has looked great, but he is by Vekoma (a miler) and a sprinter bred mare. East Avenue has been impressive, and has the pedigree for this. CitizenBull has won on this distance, and only run in California; he could hit the board.

But then, these are the young horses and could improve at anytime.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
A share of Flightline sold for $2.5M last night. Nominally that makes him worth $100M today. That will change. He has 2 crops on the ground and they will be selling as yearlings next year.

A share in Cogburn (the fastest horse in the world) sold for $475k. Nominally that makes him worth $19M today. Cogburn runs his last race on Saturday in the BC Turf Sprint.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
A share of Flightline sold for $2.5M last night. Nominally that makes him worth $100M today. That will change. He has 2 crops on the ground and they will be selling as yearlings next year.

A share in Cogburn (the fastest horse in the world) sold for $475k. Nominally that makes him worth $19M today. Cogburn runs his last race on Saturday in the BC Turf Sprint.

Larry
DevilHorse
And surprise, Cogburn is my pick to win the turf sprint. Will truly be shocked if he is beaten. That might set the tone for a big long shot day.

Regarding Flightline, is Constitution the best in Tapit’s sire line? (Not sure that’s the correct terminology.) So as a Tapit fan hoping Flightline can pass on a lot of good racing genes.
There was a time when horses traveling to the US from oversees greatly underperformed (assumed that the trip hurt them physically). Not so much anymore. Horses going from the US to oversees (UK for Royal Ascot; Saudi Cup, Dubai) used to have similar problems, but not as much now; but when the horses return to the US they underperform in their next (delayed) start. I always assumed it was a deeper track taking its toll, but that's not an issue on the grass.

Of note is that there is not that much of a difference in breeding. i.e., US Horse of the Year, Brick and Mortar, was owned by the Japanese and is at stud there. Not to be confused with A.P. Indy who was Japanese owned but stayed at stud here.

Here's some food for thought on Timeform vs. Beyer:

I'm sure you'd rather read the PPs than the second of the above articles.

For neophytes, here is a higher level article comparing several of the more popular speed figures:

Larry
DevilHorse
As I play on Twinspires I get free Brisnet figures. I look up free information on Equibase which has their figures. Old enough to remember the old simple figures that figured how far behind the track record a horse ran in his last race. My problem with the more sophisticated figures is how to compare from track to track. I know they claim to adjust for that but it seems to me based on no scientific analysis that California speed figures are usually a little higher. Maybe that’s my imagination.
 
And surprise, Cogburn is my pick to win the turf sprint. Will truly be shocked if he is beaten. That might set the tone for a big long shot day.

Regarding Flightline, is Constitution the best in Tapit’s sire line? (Not sure that’s the correct terminology.) So as a Tapit fan hoping Flightline can pass on a lot of good racing genes.

As I play on Twinspires I get free Brisnet figures. I look up free information on Equibase which has their figures. Old enough to remember the old simple figures that figured how far behind the track record a horse ran in his last race. My problem with the more sophisticated figures is how to compare from track to track. I know they claim to adjust for that but it seems to me based on no scientific analysis that California speed figures are usually a little higher. Maybe that’s my imagination.
Off the top of my head Constitution (#5 by earnings) is the most accomplished siring son of Tapit (#22 by earnings). Constitution has been around the longest, and is in the top ten; additionally he has sired Tiz The Law (Belmont, Travers), who has a good start as a sire. This year, anyway, you have Frosted (at #25 by earnings), and Tapiture (#28 by earnings). You also have Tapizar (sire of Monomoy Girl), Tonalist Lucky Pulpit (sire of California Chrome), and Tapwrit (2 Belmont winners) and Essential Quality (also Belmont, Travers), and Flightline (promising young sires).

Tapit's sire was Pulpit. Pulpit wasn't nearly the sire that Tapit is. Pulpit sired Tapit of course, but also Purge, Ice Box, Corinthian, and Sky Mesa.

Pulpit's sire was A.P. Indy. He was a tremendous sire and broodmare sire.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
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