Conference Realignment

I think with all the handwringing over the conference realignment, its important to keep in mind a few things.
1. Conference realignment is not about what it was a decade or more ago. This is not about expanding network footprints to large metro areas or anything like that. Streaming has made that irrelevant.
2. While its true that football has "driven the bus" in CR since its the biggest money maker, ultimately CR is now about product inventory and engagement. Live sports still carries some of the largest ratings for TV viewing, its basically the last bastion of can't miss TV. We know that CFB draws bigger viewers than CBB does, but thats not really relevant outside of late November and December. How does CBB do against whatever is on in January, February, March, thats what matters, because thats where they need eyeballs. There isn't much in the way of CFB in those months so the rights holders want something to promote and get viewers.
3. I think there is going to be a culling sooner than people think, especially with NIL taking a cut and nobody knows how thats going to be regulated (or its full impact, its still too new). But I can see a scenario where its just like the old SoCon where too many members don't feel like their specific needs are being served, or they're propping up too many other schools, and want to break away. Also, despite the late stage capitalistic belief that number must always go up, we all know that the number will flatten out, and then go down. There isn't infinite money or growth for these rights fees, at some point, they are going to tap out, and thats going to cause a lot of grumbling, and schools who thought this was such a great idea now having second guesses. I'd be surprised if the super conferences last 20 years.
 
HoKogan said:
1. Conference realignment is not about what it was a decade or more ago. This is not about expanding network footprints to large metro areas or anything like that. Streaming has made that irrelevant.
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Network footprint has just been replaced by the size of the fan base and how willing that fan base will be to pay for an over the top service or three. That’s FSU’s biggest advantage over UNC, UVA and Clemson.
 
Kdogg said:
Network footprint has just been replaced by the size of the fan base and how willing that fan base will be to pay for an over the top service or three. That’s FSU’s biggest advantage over UNC, UVA and Clemson.
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And size of fanbase has a LOT to do with size of alumni base....and that's where the ACC gets killed by the B1G and the SEC.....each of those leagues has "one boutique" school (Vandy and Northwestern) and the rest are big state universities with fan bases that capture not only their alums but also a huge majority of citizens of those states....simply as "the university of" impact.

Dave Odom left WF for S Carolina for one reason..."the university of" - he was tired of competing against one and wanted to coach one. Now his decision notwithstanding, he recognized the power of "the university of" - and now the ACC is feeling it.
 
HereBeforeCoachK said:
And size of fanbase has a LOT to do with size of alumni base....and that's where the ACC gets killed by the B1G and the SEC.....each of those leagues has "one boutique" school (Vandy and Northwestern) and the rest are big state universities with fan bases that capture not only their alums but also a huge majority of citizens of those states....simply as "the university of" impact.

Dave Odom left WF for S Carolina for one reason..."the university of" - he was tired of competing against one and wanted to coach one. Now his decision notwithstanding, he recognized the power of "the university of" - and now the ACC is feeling it.
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I think this is right, and it introduces the question of can the ACC figure out a way to take advantage of its own attributes. Sometimes one has to lean into a disadvantage to turn it into an advantage. Judo might present better strategies than boxing when it comes to competing with the SEC and B1G. Who knows, perhaps a conference comprising selective private schools committed to D1 sports with standards more in alignment with their similar missions might actually be appealing and workable. Yes, such a conference might not attract as many eyeballs as the leagues with larger alumni bases, but I can envision advertisers who might find the eyeballs from such a conference to be unusually appealing. Just thinking out loud over the Internet here. :cool:
 
Mike Petrik said:
I think this is right, and it introduces the question of can the ACC figure out a way to take advantage of its own attributes. Sometimes one has to lean into a disadvantage to turn it into an advantage. Judo might present better strategies than boxing when it comes to competing with the SEC and B1G. Who knows, perhaps a conference comprising selective private schools committed to D1 sports with standards more in alignment with their similar missions might actually be appealing and workable. Yes, such a conference might not attract as many eyeballs as the leagues with larger alumni bases, but I can envision advertisers who might find the eyeballs from such a conference to be unusually appealing. Just thinking out loud over the Internet here. :cool:
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Sounds like the Ivy League to me... :)
 
gep said:
Sounds like the Ivy League to me... :)
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Yeah, I definitely see that. But my speculation centers more around a private schools committed to D1 in all sports, including football (unlike the Ivy). I'm thinking schools like Northwestern, BC, Wake, Syracuse, Stanford, BYU, Rice, Tulane, Baylor, Miami, and SMU. Ideally, ND, Vandy, and USC would also be good fits, but they presumably would be harder sells. I know this is probably pie in the sky, but there are serious incumbrances on smaller private schools participating in leagues whose other members have very dissimilar concerns and priorities. I'm probably wrong.
 
75Crazie said:
I get the impression that when people say that, they intend it to be denigrating (my apologies to you if this is not what you intended). I personally think the Ivy League is much, much closer to what college sports ought to be.
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Sorry… I did not intend my comment to be denigrating. In fact, I actually admire the Ivy League for maintaining their commitment to their mission. But I wasn’t aware they were in the FCS division :rolleyes:
 
brevity said:
The county-by-county footprint of each power conference:

View attachment 17431

(Source)

I found this on the Syracuse board here. Credit where credit is due.
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Hmmm. Interesting that the power of the conferences doesn't match the population that each encompasses. Is that because the sizes of the schools don't match that of the conferences? Because the new additions skew the populations and that hasn't kicked in yet? Or because the south just loves football more?
 
dlmzzz said:
Hmmm. Interesting that the power of the conferences doesn't match the population that each encompasses. Is that because the sizes of the schools don't match that of the conferences? Because the new additions skew the populations and that hasn't kicked in yet? Or because the south just loves football more?
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I suspect that it is mostly due to the fact that the “nearest school” geographically doesn’t always dominate the local media market. Metro Dallas and Atlanta are marked as ACC territory, though I don’t think anyone would say that Georgia Tech and SMU dominates these markets. Nobody in there right mind would say that Chicago is a Big East town due to DePaul.

There are also some weird “territories” which cross state lines in a way that doesn’t really represent school support. Having lived there, I can vouch that Cleveland and its eastern and southern suburbs are in no way ACC territory, even if University of Pittsburgh is a few miles closer than Ohio St.

I suspect that things would look very different if the SEC “owned” (nearly) all of Texas, Florida, and Georgia and the Big 10 owned (nearly) all of PA, OH, and IL.

For the ACC, you can throw in the fact that it “owns” several populous areas which aren’t known for college sports fandom (Northern California, Boston, Miami)
 
Hearing some chatter that while the SEC has no interest in any ACC teams at this time, there are some in the Big Ten who think expansion could make sense. And Duke is most assuredly one of the teams the Big Ten is strongly considering if it does invite anyone.
 
JasonEvans said:
Hearing some chatter that while the SEC has no interest in any ACC teams at this time, there are some in the Big Ten who think expansion could make sense. And Duke is most assuredly one of the teams the Big Ten is strongly considering if it does invite anyone.
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Thanks for this insight. I think Big Ten would be my preferred landing spot, in the event of the ACC explosion or degradation.
 
JasonEvans said:
Hearing some chatter that while the SEC has no interest in any ACC teams at this time, there are some in the Big Ten who think expansion could make sense. And Duke is most assuredly one of the teams the Big Ten is strongly considering if it does invite anyone.
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I'm going not to root for the ACC's demise. Simply because of familiarity.
There are a great number of things I wish they would do better. I'm not happy with them overall.

But boy oh boy, how cheesed off would FSU, Clem, and Miami be if they moved laterally to the Big 12 by breaking up the ACC and Duke landed in the B1G? These are the kinds of results I am here for!!!
 
JasonEvans said:
Hearing some chatter that while the SEC has no interest in any ACC teams at this time, there are some in the Big Ten who think expansion could make sense. And Duke is most assuredly one of the teams the Big Ten is strongly considering if it does invite anyone.
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shhh, there are some on the forum who don't want to hear that. Who doesn't like a thoughtful invitation?
 
JasonEvans said:
Hearing some chatter that while the SEC has no interest in any ACC teams at this time, there are some in the Big Ten who think expansion could make sense. And Duke is most assuredly one of the teams the Big Ten is strongly considering if it does invite anyone.
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This tracks since both the ACC and the SEC are ESPN properties
 
JasonEvans said:
Hearing some chatter that while the SEC has no interest in any ACC teams at this time, there are some in the Big Ten who think expansion could make sense. And Duke is most assuredly one of the teams the Big Ten is strongly considering if it does invite anyone.
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For those of you who have never lived in that part of the country, this makes total sense. SEC schools not named KY are 98% football, 2% baseball, and 0% everything else. Some Big Ten football schools driving the bus (MI, OSU) have interest in basketball even if football is king 3 times over.
 
dlmzzz said:
Hmmm. Interesting that the power of the conferences doesn't match the population that each encompasses. Is that because the sizes of the schools don't match that of the conferences? Because the new additions skew the populations and that hasn't kicked in yet? Or because the south just loves football more?
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It's ALL about the sizes of the schools.....which = the size of their current on campus fan base, is highly correlated with their alum fan base. A Michigan grad living in Charlotte is NOT an ACC fan. Then there is the U of factor. If you drew a circle with a 15 mile radius from the top of Cameron Indoor, there'd be a lot more Heel fans in that circle. Same with SMU versus Texas, Wake Forest and UNC, Vandy and UT, and a lot of other examples.
Ironically, the largest state in the ACC is now California, and in an unusual twist, Cal does NOT have that U of cache so much, as USC and UCLA seem to suck all the oxygen out of that state. So the ACC is really on the bad luck side in the "U of" sweep stakes."
 
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