Conference Realignment

The fans and podcasters of Big State U may focus almost exclusively on basketball and football, but here's the NCAA's list of colleges by number of championships won--of the 16, only a few aren't also a flagship state U that must focus at least a little on secondary sports while also fielding very competitive football and basketball teams.

# championships #sports
1Stanford12320
2UCLA11820
3Southern California10717
4Oklahoma State525
5Penn State5110
6Texas4711
7Arkansas466
8North Carolina447
9LSU437
10California3810
11Florida3614
12Michigan3510
T13Denver333
T13Oregon338
T15Georgia319
T15Maryland316
that's also very reflective of simply having more resources....as much as anything. Not sure what it really means either. .I mean consider this: do you think Georgia fans give a hoot they are behind the U of Denver on this list? Only two Big Ten teams are ahead of Maryland on this list....anyone think of Maryland as the third best AD in the Big Ten? Even within this list, you have huge disparities in GAF factor between, say, the CWS champ or the Womens' hoops champ....versus say tennis or field hockey or swimming. And yet on this list all are "one" point.
 
Re the bolded: I don't think Duke has sacrificed countless academic principles for football (I hope you don't mean they sacrificed countless "academic principals"--regardless of what you thought of your high school, no reason that academic administrators should be ritually sacrificed for a sporting event).

On average, Duke's football players enter Duke with somewhat lower GPA's and SAT's than non-athletes, but the admissions office has "flexibility" for a variety of groups. To me, the proof is in the pudding. For many decades, Duke's football players have been committed students and members of the Duke community, and after 4 or 5 years, almost 100% graduate. Things are different at other places, but Duke (and quite a few colleges) do make real efforts to graduate the guys they recruit. Could Duke Admissions find 85 people with more AP credits in high school? Sure, but imho, the university should aim to bring in a wide variety of people, as long as they meet a basic baseline (which, for Duke, is still rather high) and prove to be successful students while on campus (which they do).

Oh, and if anything, I think the problems with recruitment of unprepared athletes was a bigger deal 50+ years ago. While the public school system is imperfect, educational disparities were far greater before, say, 1975, than they are now.
 
I’m interested in what direction Duke chooses if/when the ACC does collapse, assuming no Big 10 invitation is extended? Give
I really haven’t gotten the hang of the new board yet. To complete my thought, I’m not advocating giving up the big ACC payout Duke currently gets, but rather, what is the plan when/if the music stops and there are no seats left on the money train?

I think we all can agree that conference realignment is about football money and Duke football generates very little of that. So a Big 10?? invitation is very unlikely and, if it happened, would be at a much reduced payout than current members including ACC football schools like UNC. How much indignity and anxiety does Duke accept before chasing a little more football money “for the sake of the non revenue sports” is no longer plan A?
 
I don't dispute anything you said...I would only add that competition for the best overall Athletic Department is something that frankly Alabama and Ohio State and Georgia and UConn and Michigan don't stress over. There are two championships that really matter, and one of those way above the other - and the rest is window dressing at most for a lot of schools.

And Nina - according to some on DBR - has supposedly warned that non rev sports are going away...............in light of NIL / Portal / re-alignment concerns.
I have never advocated that we try to tiff things out with all the huge state schools and Stanford for the Directors Cup or whatever they now call it.
I was merely responding to the assertion that if the ACC were to fall apart, we could join the Big East because they have lots of sports, too.
Yeah, we could, but the Big East isn't any good at most of those sports where Duke does like to compete....we like to compete at a higher level.
Anything can happen, no one knows what the future holds, I just happen to be among those who enjoys following softball, baseball, lacrosse, soccer and other sports as Duke plays these at a high level. And judging by DBR threads, a lot of other folks do, too.
Nina is doing what she can do in highly uncertain times to maximize Duke's chances of ending up in a good place if the ACC falters (which, again, I think it not likely anytime soon)....that's what a good AD should be doing.
 
I’m interested in what direction Duke chooses if/when the ACC does collapse, assuming no Big 10 invitation is extended? Give
whew I thought a sniper got you!
I really haven’t gotten the hang of the new board yet. To complete my thought, I’m not advocating giving up the big ACC payout Duke currently gets, but rather, what is the plan when/if the music stops and there are no seats left on the money train?

I think we all can agree that conference realignment is about football money and Duke football generates very little of that. So a Big 10?? invitation is very unlikely and, if it happened, would be at a much reduced payout than current members including ACC football schools like UNC. How much indignity and anxiety does Duke accept before chasing a little more football money “for the sake of the non revenue sports” is no longer plan A?
Well, it's basically a math problem, and we can all take stabs at it.
First of all, while you may be a skeptic, Nina is upgrading the football program as quickly as she can (see the hiring of Elko, then Diaz) to make our product on the field more attractive.
I think you are right, Duke might well take a reduced payout to join the Big Whatever, and Nina can do the math on whether that works or not.
There are those who think Duke has a pretty good brand, and while I realize there are limits to that, I believe Duke would generate more interest in that league than you think. We'll see I guess.
I consider things to be much more hazy among the grumpers....All Big 10 schools but Nebraska are AAU members (and Nebraska was formerly) and FSU failed in a recent attempt (oof) to be accredited. Then to their embarrassment South Florida became a member. So FSU and probably Clemson look to be more natural fits in the SEC, but they'll face some opposition since a) they bring no new geography that South Carolina and UF don't cover, and b) those schools are not likely to welcome them.
Definitely see the threat in the Big 10 wanting VA and unc, new geography and (for some reason) both AAU schools. If that happens we might see how much the B1G values Duke.
 
I have never advocated that we try to tiff things out with all the huge state schools and Stanford for the Directors Cup or whatever they now call it.
I was merely responding to the assertion that if the ACC were to fall apart, we could join the Big East because they have lots of sports, too.
Yeah, we could, but the Big East isn't any good at most of those sports where Duke does like to compete....we like to compete at a higher level.
Anything can happen, no one knows what the future holds, I just happen to be among those who enjoys following softball, baseball, lacrosse, soccer and other sports as Duke plays these at a high level. And judging by DBR threads, a lot of other folks do, too.
Nina is doing what she can do in highly uncertain times to maximize Duke's chances of ending up in a good place if the ACC falters (which, again, I think it not likely anytime soon)....that's what a good AD should be doing.
To clarify I was bouncing off your comment, not countering it. My point was that I think very few schools really value the Directors Cup because anything that gives football and field hockey equal weight is simply not reflective of anything significant in the real world. And every single program would take a natty in FB or BB and a horrible "cup" standing over a Directors Cup with no major natty.

As for Nina, I think she's in a no win situation. I've zero problem with anything she's doing. I'm not sure it's going to matter. The gravitational forces in this planetary re-alignment are bigger than her, bigger than K, bigger than Jon, bigger than Duke, period.
 
whew I thought a sniper got you!

Well, it's basically a math problem, and we can all take stabs at it.
First of all, while you may be a skeptic, Nina is upgrading the football program as quickly as she can (see the hiring of Elko, then Diaz) to make our product on the field more attractive.
I think you are right, Duke might well take a reduced payout to join the Big Whatever, and Nina can do the math on whether that works or not.
There are those who think Duke has a pretty good brand, and while I realize there are limits to that, I believe Duke would generate more interest in that league than you think. We'll see I guess.
I consider things to be much more hazy among the grumpers....All Big 10 schools but Nebraska are AAU members (and Nebraska was formerly) and FSU failed in a recent attempt (oof) to be accredited. Then to their embarrassment South Florida became a member. So FSU and probably Clemson look to be more natural fits in the SEC, but they'll face some opposition since a) they bring no new geography that South Carolina and UF don't cover, and b) those schools are not likely to welcome them.
Definitely see the threat in the Big 10 wanting VA and unc, new geography and (for some reason) both AAU schools. If that happens we might see how much the B1G values Duke.
Why would the B1G want UVA and unc but not Duke?
 
I wonder if the full value of Duke and UNC basketball is being realized. I know football drives the bus, but if the Big 10 were able to land both UNC and Duke, might they be able to squeeze more juice from that fruit than the ACC?
 
To clarify I was bouncing off your comment, not countering it. My point was that I think very few schools really value the Directors Cup because anything that gives football and field hockey equal weight is simply not reflective of anything significant in the real world. And every single program would take a natty in FB or BB and a horrible "cup" standing over a Directors Cup with no major natty.

As for Nina, I think she's in a no win situation. I've zero problem with anything she's doing. I'm not sure it's going to matter. The gravitational forces in this planetary re-alignment are bigger than her, bigger than K, bigger than Jon, bigger than Duke, period.
I understand. Again, only cited the Directors Cup to counter the notion that the Big East would offer a decent landing spot for Duke athletics. The point system is arbitrary and odd.

Nonetheless, Nina is not going to do nothing, she's going to try to maximize Duke's chances of keeping a viable athletic department.
 
I wonder if the full value of Duke and UNC basketball is being realized. I know football drives the bus, but if the Big 10 were able to land both UNC and Duke, might they be able to squeeze more juice from that fruit than the ACC?
The Duke-UNC rivalry franchise I think was the third biggest revenue draw in the ACC, behind Clemson and FSU football....so yeah, I could see that being a consideration that would help Duke potentially "land" somewhere.
 
Definitely see the threat in the Big 10 wanting VA and unc, new geography and (for some reason) both AAU schools. If that happens we might see how much the B1G values Duke.

I think that danger might be attenuated. The B1G’s former business model was convincing cable companies that, because there was a B1G team in their service area, they needed to pay exorbitant carriage fees for its network. That is why it grabbed Maryland and Rutgers. Those athletic departments were basically tear downs. They merely wanted the land underneath. With that business model, the North Carolina and Virginia television markets were very attractive.

That model was always a dubious one. Is Rutgers really New York’s team? Can people in Manhattan even find the B1G Network on their cable lineup? (Hint: It is up there in the triple digits next to the public access channel with the nude talk show.)

With cable cutting, that model is less important and becoming even less so. Now the B1G schools have discovered that their true talent is producing their own fans through their freakishly large enrollments. Those students/graduates, plus their families, plus the usual Walmart fans that come from being mostly flagship universities create an enormous pool of potential subscribers before you even get to casual fans.

All this was also two rounds of expansion ago. With the addition of USC and UCLA the B1G achieved what talking heads, at the outset of realignment, declared to be the Pythagorean ideal number for a conference: 16 teams. Even the B1G’s current logo was a sly reference to its ultimate goal of 16 teams. Weeks after finally reaching that number, they blew by it with the additions of Oregon and Washington. At this point, even considering schools with recognizable and marketable brands, can the B1G still grow the pie enough to justify a bigger number of slices.

I am afraid that UNC is now that girl in high school who heard that the guy everyone was crushing on thought she was hot and has ever since been planning some great future with him. Meanwhile, the guy has long since started dating someone else.

Aside from real estate, I never really got UVA and UNC as natural or cultural fits for the B1G. The B1G schools are enormous land grant universities. UVA and UNC are smaller, older, more venerable institutions founded on the liberal arts model.

The B1G’s fetish for AAU membership always sounds a wrong note for me. What it mostly indicates is that member institutions do a huge volume of expensive research. It is not a direct indicator of academic status. Boston College and Wake Forrest say, “Eat me!” Nebraska dropped out not because they stopped doing research there and started huffing paint. It simply got to a point where they were doing accounting gymnastics to satisfy the AAU’s requirements, which value some types of research more than others, and decided that it was not the best allocation of their resources. Pointing to AAU membership mostly celebrates a particular characteristic that B1G schools value about themselves. Schools such as Wisconsin and Michigan are nationally and internationally recognized in their own rights. Yet they persist in this mean girls, “Hey, check us out! We're the cream of the cow colleges!” thing while looking down on schools like N.C. State and Virginia Tech whose academic rankings would place them solidly in the middle of the B1G’s.

I really do not see Duke in the B1G. The B1G currently has only one private university and that one was a founding member. If the B1G passed on Stanford, I am not sure what could ever make a private university attractive to it.
 
I wonder if the full value of Duke and UNC basketball is being realized. I know football drives the bus, but if the Big 10 were able to land both UNC and Duke, might they be able to squeeze more juice from that fruit than the ACC?
It's definitely worth something....which is why this is interesting.
 
I think that danger might be attenuated. The B1G’s former business model was convincing cable companies that, because there was a B1G team in their service area, they needed to pay exorbitant carriage fees for its network. That is why it grabbed Maryland and Rutgers. Those athletic departments were basically tear downs. They merely wanted the land underneath. With that business model, the North Carolina and Virginia television markets were very attractive.

That model was always a dubious one. Is Rutgers really New York’s team? Can people in Manhattan even find the B1G Network on their cable lineup? (Hint: It is up there in the triple digits next to the public access channel with the nude talk show.)

With cable cutting, that model is less important and becoming even less so. Now the B1G schools have discovered that their true talent is producing their own fans through their freakishly large enrollments. Those students/graduates, plus their families, plus the usual Walmart fans that come from being mostly flagship universities create an enormous pool of potential subscribers before you even get to casual fans.

All this was also two rounds of expansion ago. With the addition of USC and UCLA the B1G achieved what talking heads, at the outset of realignment, declared to be the Pythagorean ideal number for a conference: 16 teams. Even the B1G’s current logo was a sly reference to its ultimate goal of 16 teams. Weeks after finally reaching that number, they blew by it with the additions of Oregon and Washington. At this point, even considering schools with recognizable and marketable brands, can the B1G still grow the pie enough to justify a bigger number of slices.

I am afraid that UNC is now that girl in high school who heard that the guy everyone was crushing on thought she was hot and has ever since been planning some great future with him. Meanwhile, the guy has long since started dating someone else.

Aside from real estate, I never really got UVA and UNC as natural or cultural fits for the B1G. The B1G schools are enormous land grant universities. UVA and UNC are smaller, older, more venerable institutions founded on the liberal arts model.

The B1G’s fetish for AAU membership always sounds a wrong note for me. What it mostly indicates is that member institutions do a huge volume of expensive research. It is not a direct indicator of academic status. Boston College and Wake Forrest say, “Eat me!” Nebraska dropped out not because they stopped doing research there and started huffing paint. It simply got to a point where they were doing accounting gymnastics to satisfy the AAU’s requirements, which value some types of research more than others, and decided that it was not the best allocation of their resources. Pointing to AAU membership mostly celebrates a particular characteristic that B1G schools value about themselves. Schools such as Wisconsin and Michigan are nationally and internationally recognized in their own rights. Yet they persist in this mean girls, “Hey, check us out! We're the cream of the cow colleges!” thing while looking down on schools like N.C. State and Virginia Tech whose academic rankings would place them solidly in the middle of the B1G’s.

I really do not see Duke in the B1G. The B1G currently has only one private university and that one was a founding member. If the B1G passed on Stanford, I am not sure what could ever make a private university attractive to it.
very fair points. We just don't know what they value right now, we don't know what future TV contracts will look like. Maybe the status quo is excellent for them. Do a bunch of B1G ADs want to invite an FSU team that would whomp many of them (looking at you, B1G West) on a regular basis? Sometimes doing nothing is the best option.

Again, I don't see the ACC imploding any time soon, but I can understand that Nina needs to try to prepare for whatever may come.
Just because Fsu and Clemson envy B1G and SEC money doesn't mean there's anything they can do about it. And ACC money is pretty good right now. This article shows where we are:https://www.foxsports.com/stories/c...-conferences-revenue-athlete-pay-plan-horizon

These numbers do not tell me the ACC is at some massive disadvantage that will necessarily result in its demise...and I think the ACC numbers slightly improve when SMU enters with zero TV revenue, Stanford and Cal get reduced payouts, and ESPN kicks in more money.
 
I’m not sure how much it matters but I keep wondering how the ACC would be valued now if it were not encumbered by its extremely long term agreement with ESPN. If the ACC could put its media contracts up for bid now, how would we compare with the SEC or B10? Our fan base isn’t as interested in football but it’s more interested in hoops and it’s so large. The ACC covers states with a much larger population than the SEC or the B10. I think the ACC’s value wouldn’t be much lower but 2036 is so far off.
 
I really haven’t gotten the hang of the new board yet. To complete my thought, I’m not advocating giving up the big ACC payout Duke currently gets, but rather, what is the plan when/if the music stops and there are no seats left on the money train?

I think we all can agree that conference realignment is about football money and Duke football generates very little of that. So a Big 10?? invitation is very unlikely and, if it happened, would be at a much reduced payout than current members including ACC football schools like UNC. How much indignity and anxiety does Duke accept before chasing a little more football money “for the sake of the non revenue sports” is no longer plan A?
If the ACC implodes and breaks up, I think the mostly likely scenario is that Duke goes to the Big12. Our football is on par with theirs, and of the significant conferences, they value basketball the most.

If we got an offer to join the SEC or Big10 we would certainly take it, but I think neither really wants to expand right now. Almost all teams in the ACC would water down the payouts those conferences make to their members if added to the conferences.
 
If the ACC implodes and breaks up, I think the mostly likely scenario is that Duke goes to the Big12. Our football is on par with theirs, and of the significant conferences, they value basketball the most.

If we got an offer to join the SEC or Big10 we would certainly take it, but I think neither really wants to expand right now. Almost all teams in the ACC would water down the payouts those conferences make to their members if added to the conferences.
Good post, and my response is long. Duke, whether the powers-to-be like it or not, has been a mid-level ACC and Big 10 football program from 2012-2023 on average. NW generally has held its own against the bottom 11/14 Big 10 teams when it's only 3-5 v. Duke since 2007. Nobody in the ACC is a serious threat to average more than 4-8 wins/year in SEC football. I am aware 2024 is going to be a disaster in football thanks to Elmo (3 wins likely, 4 wins tops).

I don't see a relationship between Duke and ESPN after this contract, and I don't think ESPN realizes that. ESPN is all-SEC and Big 12 basketball only, and neither of those options make any sense for Duke. I have heard that Duke apparently studied and concluded a long time ago that its options were ACC or D3. Even Ivy and Patriot non-scholarship options were not serious. I think an updated review would put Duke only in the Big 10 or Big East with Fox given the factions I've noted before (academics, costs, internal Duke politics). Relatively speaking, ESPN has non-CBB options once it loses the college basketball cash cow in Durham.

I can also see Duke trying but failing badly to do a ND-type deal with CBS/CBS Sports Network or Fox/FS 1 rather than joining the SEC or Big 12. (FS1 has gobbled up every Duke non-conference football game the past 3 years if you haven't noticed, but it's much harder to find than ACCN.) Saturday night public TV is so bad once the NFL playoffs become 1 game/day that Duke-DePaul basketball would be an improvement.
 
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