2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

[Furniture]

Clearly many of us and the political pundits were wrong about his 47% ceiling. He may end up at 51%. There is obviously something missing in the understanding of the US electorate.

 

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

There aren’t. We can speculate that independents broke more for Trump/GOP than usual, and most likely we didn’t see much crossover. But registration generally trended R nationally, and it appears D turnout was not as substantial as R turnout.

My guess is that party affiliation defactions were largely a wadh, mainly because that has largely been true historically. There was hope on the Dem side that we would see more crossover, but I suspect that it didn’t happen. Combine that with lighter than hoped turnout and indies breaking more GOP than historically and you get this result.

I guess I'm just wondering if anyone crosses party lines these days. Or if we are all in such echo chambers that we only hear and ingest things that corroborate our world view.

I don't personally know a single person who crossed the aisle to vote in either direction. But that's a pretty small sample size, and completely dependent on what someone chooses to tell me.

My point being, of literally all the Dems vote blue and all the GOP votes red, we barely even need elections anymore, just count up the voter registration and call it a day.

Us Unaffiliated can make up some of the difference.

 

[jipops]

My 14 year old half Mexican nephew with two moms will be eligible to vote next go round - assuming there's an election. I think this is a happy thought for today, but I can't really tell for sure.

Take any happy thought you can get. I'm suppressing (poorly) an inordinate amount of rage, frustration, embarrassment, and overall disillusionment of the good 'ol US of A. For all of its known pitfalls throughout history, I'm still legitimately shocked that I live in this kind of country now. American exceptionalism is dead as it's clear we take the same dark turns as other countries have around the world. I shouldn't be expected to just "get over it". But again, I'll take any happy thoughts that come about and just push onward (in disgust).

 

[MartyClark]

I guess I'm just wondering if anyone crosses party lines these days. Or if we are all in such echo chambers that we only hear and ingest things that corroborate our world view.

I don't personally know a single person who crossed the aisle to vote in either direction. But that's a pretty small sample size, and completely dependent on what someone chooses to tell me.

My point being, of literally all the Dems vote blue and all the GOP votes red, we barely even need elections anymore, just count up the voter registration and call it a day.

Us Unaffiliated can make up some of the difference.

 

[MartyClark]

We are clearly a minority but my wife and I both crossed party lines to vote, as did 5 of my friends.

 

[JNort]

Are there measurements that can tell us how many voters crossed party lines? I would be extremely interested in that data.

Has to be. I said on the other thread that many of my own friends and some family members were voting almost entirely blue except for Trump. My aunt confirmed that’s what she did. Shes a 60 year old retired teacher, voted all blue except for Trump. I said this was a thing a while back and was lambasted for thinking Trump would fairly easily win. Dem messaging is abysmal and the continue to put up people that are unlikable.

 

[CameronBlue]

We are clearly a minority but my wife and I both crossed party lines to vote, as did 5 of my friends.

As did my two brothers both registered Rs, to vote for Harris.

 

[SouthernDukie]

Has to be. I said on the other thread that many of my own friends and some family members were voting almost entirely blue except for Trump. My aunt confirmed that’s what she did. Shes a 60 year old retired teacher, voted all blue except for Trump. I said this was a thing a while back and was lambasted for thinking Trump would fairly easily win. Dem messaging is abysmal and the continue to put up people that are unlikable.

Yep, it’s beyond clear that some consequential percentage of Dems crossed over to vote for Trump.

 

[rsvman]

This is the first time he has won the popular vote. lt's astounding to me. There were so many factors that should have been aligned against that, including that the electorate shifted as older folks died and younger people became old enough to vote; this, alone, should have shifted votes significantly toward Harris.

The major misstep of the Democratic party, in my opinion, was not having a short run-off between the time Biden stepped aside and the convention. It may have resulted in the same candidate, but even if it did, the run-off might have added 'legitimacy' to her candidacy... I don't know, maybe not. Part of me believes, as I mentioned a few weeks ago, that there is a lot of misogyny hiding in the shadows. Who would've thought, though, that the American electorate was ok with a black man but not with a woman? Or maybe it was the bigotry 'double-whammy' of being not only female, but also black?

It makes me sad that the American population is apparently so steeped in these antiquated biases that have no basis in fact. (Or maybe it is just that they don't understand the economy at all? )

All we can do now is hope for the best. It is at least remotely possible that he will, at least in some cases, worry about his 'legacy' as a part of his overall ego, and if he does, maybe he will occasionally do things that will be good. If not, my Italian studies are going well; I am almost a B2 now. If worse comes to worst, maybe a small place in Sienna wouldn't be horrible.

 

[jipops]

Has to be. I said on the other thread that many of my own friends and some family members were voting almost entirely blue except for Trump. My aunt confirmed that’s what she did. Shes a 60 year old retired teacher, voted all blue except for Trump. I said this was a thing a while back and was lambasted for thinking Trump would fairly easily win. Dem messaging is abysmal and the continue to put up people that are unlikable.

Dem messaging is abysmal. Complete agreement there. I wonder how come GOP messaging and likeability is not held to the same standard though? Or maybe the current electorate just finds Trumps messaging likeable?

Ted Cruz won, once again. Is he likeable?

 

[bundabergdevil]

The results appear to show that GOTV efforts, ground game, fundraising, etc., no longer are sufficient. Trump camp controls the predominant media being consumed these days, and they were effective in pushing their message through it. Combine that with a general lack of understanding of the impact COVID had on the world economy and this is the result.

The polls were much more right than the CBouzy brigade. But even the polls and PredictIt underestimated Trump. Really crazy that the polls still managed to do so for a third time.

Hopefully the doomsday concerns don’t come to fruition. We will see.

Yep, it’s beyond clear that some consequential percentage of Dems crossed over to vote for Trump.

Unclear. One thing that does to be clear is that there was lower voter turnout this year. Total vote is going to be significantly down. If Dems didn’t turnout, that could be one explanation.

 

[CDu]

I guess I'm just wondering if anyone crosses party lines these days. Or if we are all in such echo chambers that we only hear and ingest things that corroborate our world view.

I don't personally know a single person who crossed the aisle to vote in either direction. But that's a pretty small sample size, and completely dependent on what someone chooses to tell me.

My point being, of literally all the Dems vote blue and all the GOP votes red, we barely even need elections anymore, just count up the voter registration and call it a day.

Us Unaffiliated can make up some of the difference.

It is usually assumed to be about 5% crossover both ways.

But R registrations and Indy registrations are up nationally, and it sounds like from exit polling that indies broke more R this time.

That combined with lower turnout in key Dem strongholds like Philly and it can lead to this outcome.

 

[gumbomoop]

Here’s some info on ticket-splitting in NC.

NC voters chose Trump. You’ll know that the NC Repub gubernatorial candidate, a self-professed Nazi, lost big. So that ticket-split was expected. But the R candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction, who’d advocated public executions for prominent Ds, also lost. Maybe half-way expected.

But in the 3 other major state offices (Lt. Gov, Sec St, Atty Gen), the R candidates are all losing, in each case with 95% of the votes counted. [And now I have just seen the D candidate for Atty Gen is the projected winner.]

So some sliver of NC voters — “independents”?? — did some significant ticket-splitting, voting against Rs in all the major state offices, but for Trump.

 

[A-Tex Devil]

Has to be. I said on the other thread that many of my own friends and some family members were voting almost entirely blue except for Trump. My aunt confirmed that’s what she did. Shes a 60 year old retired teacher, voted all blue except for Trump. I said this was a thing a while back and was lambasted for thinking Trump would fairly easily win. Dem messaging is abysmal and the continue to put up people that are unlikable.

How is Kamala unlikable? I can entertain the argument that the Dems should have run a process, that she was foisted on the party, that there is latent misogyny that this country isn’t yet able to overcome. Other than the last one I don’t subscribe to any of it. But I can listen to the argument.

But when people say she is unlikable I just roll my eyes because she hasn’t had the opportunity to be unlikable. And while I don’t necessarily accuse you of this, unlikable to me = code for woman candidate.

This was lost on three items imo:

1. Biden should have said he wasn’t running as soon as 2022 midterms turned out relatively well. He and the party took the wrong message from that vote.

2. Latent (and patent) misogyny.

3. An uninformed electorate that has no idea how the economy works other than what Fox news and their conservative podcast tells them. Biden was taking the blame for inflation before he ever got into office.

 

[bird]

Kamala looks to end up receiving many fewer votes than Biden. There was a theme by some posters in the prior thread that turnout would decide the election. They may be entitled to take a bow.

 

[jipops]

Here’s some info on ticket-splitting in NC.

NC voters chose Trump. You’ll know that the NC Repub gubernatorial candidate, a self-professed Nazi, lost big. So that ticket-split was expected. But the R candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction, who’d advocated public executions for prominent Ds, also lost. Maybe half-way expected.

But in the 3 other major state offices (Lt. Gov, Sec St, Atty Gen), the R candidates are all losing, in each case with 95% of the votes counted. [And now I have just seen the D candidate for Atty Gen is the projected winner.]

So some sliver of NC voters — “independents”?? — did some significant ticket-splitting, voting against Rs in all the major state offices, but for Trump.

Which is still pretty wild. Those voters held the Governor's office and the Superintendent of Public Instruction to very different standards than the highest office in the land. All 3 essentially ran with the same rhetoric all throughout this election. Were Robinson's and Marrow's rhetoric really any more extreme than Trump's? I think there is a complex yet very disturbing explanation for this.

 

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I concur. I don’t care about Duke basketball at all right now. How could I? So many lives are about to be disrupted and put in harms way. A man and a group around him has been empowered to govern without any intent at all of actual governing. Chaos is positively imminent. We’ve already seen this. I don’t know how I’m supposed to not care about this.

Best I do right now is tell my daughters they are worth more than the results of this election. They were failed last night.

Well stated. Back from my "holiday." Probably for the best that I wasn't active. Got a lot of work done and spent quality time with my children helping to deal with their anxiety about the future of their country.

I dropped my son of at his very diverse NYC public school today and could see the fear in the eyes of his classmates and their parents. I'm guessing most/all of them are citizens but that doesn't change things for them. Their lives are suddenly changed for the worse.

I then rode the subway to work surrounded by countless people of different origins who are the reason I love living in the city that much of America despises. I probably was in the company of a larger number of "diverse" people this morning than most Americans (and even people on DBR) interact with in a month. And they are scared as heck.

This afternoon I will be seeing the kind, caring Mexican American young woman who cares for my son after school. I don't know her full story but I know that her father was an immigrant who started in the back of a kitchen, worked his way up, saved up to start his own restaurant and was hoping to open a second. I'm guessing he is legal but I'm also guessing that this will not make things easy for him. I don't see people who are complaining about migrants lining up to work in his hot kitchen scrubbing dishes and slicing vegetables.

This is my world. This is why I am scared.

And out of a sense of equity, I would like to ask that anyone who feels the urge to write "you are over-reacting" or "it's not as bad as you think" to bite their tongues for the next day or two. I would even go as far as to ask that the mods give them "holidays" for doing so as I find that type of comment to be hateful and targeted, which I believe is the grounds for a timeout. In return, I will try my best to refrain from posting my feelings about those who supported Trump, though they are currently very strong. I also hope the mods give us a little leash, though I understand there are rules and if someone egregiously breaks them they have to do their jobs.

 

[CDu]

Here’s some info on ticket-splitting in NC.

NC voters chose Trump. You’ll know that the NC Repub gubernatorial candidate, a self-professed Nazi, lost big. So that ticket-split was expected. But the R candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction, who’d advocated public executions for prominent Ds, also lost. Maybe half-way expected.

But in the 3 other major state offices (Lt. Gov, Sec St, Atty Gen), the R candidates are all losing, in each case with 95% of the votes counted. [And now I have just seen the D candidate for Atty Gen is the projected winner.]

So some sliver of NC voters — “independents”?? — did some significant ticket-splitting, voting against Rs in all the major state offices, but for Trump.

Yeah the Indy vote was 1/3 of the electorate in N.C. I suspect that the Dems largely voted Dem, the Rs largely voted R (except in the case of Uber-extreme candidates),,and the indies decided the election.

 

[Indoor66]

Unclear. One thing that does to be clear is that there was lower voter turnout this year. Total vote is going to be significantly down. If Dems didn’t turnout, that could be one explanation.

Why did they not get the turnout? Could it be they did not like the candidate or her message? Maybe it is that simple.

 

[A-Tex Devil]

One interesting dynamic over the next four years is that the Dems may become the party of state’s rights as Project 2025 starts to get implemented.