2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

[CDu]

Won't they need to out pace them to makeup for the other parts of the state or does the population destiny make Las Vegas and Reno the only places that matter?

It's complicated.

1. There should be a lot more mail-in ballots left from Clark. Basically none of the weekend tallies have come in yet, and there will still be some coming in throughout this week.
2. Clark and Reno are a HUGE amount of the population in NV. Clark alone is like 2/3 of the state population.
3. A lot of the rural vote has already come in in the mail, an unusual trend.
4. The early day Election Day vote tends to be redder than the rest of the day.

So in theory, the Dems running even with the GOP in the morning bodes well for the afternoon, when the younger (more Dem) voters come. But they'll still need a lot of those mail-in votes to come for the Dems to make up the difference. Either that or win a healthy edge in the independent vote.

 

[MChambers]

Definitely seems like the possibility that the GOP cannibalized some of it's ED vote by voting early this time. Which seems obvious, but a lot of people weren't sure. We'll see how the rest of the day plays out, but generally the vote gets bluer as the day goes on.

Still, the Dems are going to probably need a fair bit more mail ballots to arrive to feel good.

I just now figured that ED stands for Election Day and not what I was thinking.

 

[LasVegas]

Definitely seems like the possibility that the GOP cannibalized some of it's ED vote by voting early this time. Which seems obvious, but a lot of people weren't sure. We'll see how the rest of the day plays out, but generally the vote gets bluer as the day goes on.

Still, the Dems are going to probably need a fair bit more mail ballots to arrive to feel good.

Won't they need to out pace them to makeup for the other parts of the state or does the population destiny make Las Vegas and Reno the only places that matter?

Yes, mail is going to be critical but it’s a good sign if Dems can win E-Day votes in Clark.

Clark county is #1 on the important list. Something like 75% of the population in Nevada lives in Clark county. The Dems game has always been to run it up big in Clark and then let the Rural counties try to claw it back. Washoe county (Reno) is also important but to a much lesser degree if Clark voters come out to play. If Clark and rurals cancel out, Washoe is the place where a campaign will win it or lose it.

 

[CDu]

I just now figured that ED stands for Election Day and not what I was thinking.

LOL, given that I was talking about a population that skews older, I can understand the confusion.

 

[PackMan97]

Won't they need to out pace them to makeup for the other parts of the state or does the population destiny make Las Vegas and Reno the only places that matter?

NV is 3,000,000 people. Vegas itself is only ~650k, but the Vegas metro area is 2.2 million, which is basically Clark County.

So you are looking at 75% of Nevada in Clark County.

 

[LasVegas]

And just like that Dems have taken the lead in E-Day votes in Clark……..at 8:30 am. Very good sign and is exactly what the Dem party needed to see in Clark.

 

[CDu]

And just like that Dems have taken the lead in E-Day votes in Clark……..at 8:30 am. Very good sign and is exactly what the Dem party needed to see in Clark.

Yep. Assuming they get 100-110K in-person votes today, there is a good chance this gives a healthy vote edge to Dems to counter the rural edge for the GOP. And that doesn't factor in any potential edge independents, which are about 1/3 of the vote.

 

[ArkieDukie]

Good thing tigers are also not an issue in NA. "If its orange, we got nothin'"

And with that, we are back on the presidential race…

 

[CDu]

Meanwhile, in Florida, the GOP currently is representing a 1 million ballot advantage among the 9+ million votes cast so far. At this pace, the Dems would need a massive crossover edge and/or huge edge in the NPA/other party vote to have a chance there.

 

[SouthernDukie]

I'm sorry, Star Blazers isn't even the best english recut of Japanese anime. That goes to Robotech, which probably explains why I can tolerate my wife's soap operas

Robotech was excellent. Still love the original Gatchaman (but not the Americanized "Battle of the Planets").

 

[SouthernDukie]

Meanwhile, in Florida, the GOP currently is representing a 1 million ballot advantage among the 9+ million votes cast so far. At this pace, the Dems would need a massive crossover edge and/or huge edge in the NPA/other party vote to have a chance there.

I'm almost insulted that after several election cycles you guys still won't take my word for it when it comes to Florida.

 

[SouthernDukie]

I do like hearing Trump, live right now at his local polling location, sounding a tad worried about ballots and the election.

 

[CDu]

I'm almost insulted that after several election cycles you guys still won't take my word for it when it comes to Florida.

Oh I'm very much in the "Florida is not in play" camp.

 

[CDu]

Amazingly, Michigan has cast more ballots in early voting this year than their early voting in 2020. Not including election day in-person.

 

[dudog84]

What's missing in this analysis of the "early vote count" is not that it is representing the votes for Harris or Trump, BUT is the votes submitted by people registered with either party. Big difference.

How many registered Ds are voting for Trump? How many Rs for Harris? I think there is an enormous difference there, so until actual voting results are released after the close of polls, some of these numbers are only a faint indication.

 

[CDu]

What's missing in this analysis of the "early vote count" is not that it is representing the votes for Harris or Trump, BUT is the votes submitted by people registered with either party. Big difference.

How many registered Ds are voting for Trump? How many Rs for Harris? I think there is an enormous difference there, so until actual voting results are released after the close of polls, some of these numbers are only a faint indication.

Yes, I've tried to be careful in noting that these are ballot counts, not vote counts.

There are three unknowns still in play:
1. The amount of crossover votes, and whether one side gets disproportionately more crossover (historically it has been about equal, but there are reasons why that might not be the case this year).
2. The independent vote split. If one party or the other gets a disproportionate share of the indy vote, that affects things.
3. The proportion of turnout on election day. It's not 100% clear how much of the early voting is cannibalizing election day vote vs newly-engaged voting.

 

[PackMan97]

How many registered Ds are voting for Trump? How many Rs for Harris? I think there is an enormous difference there, so until actual voting results are released after the close of polls, some of these numbers are only a faint indication.

I'm sure that is going to be one of the first things the media will look at before calling a state.

 

[CDu]

Fulton County (Atlanta) has had 30K votes as of 9am this morning, pushing them to around 475K votes overall. In 2020, they had about 517K. Looking like there will be an increase in votes coming from that county this year. It went for Biden by 46 points in 2020, just FYI.

 

[bundabergdevil]

I just now figured that ED stands for Election Day and not what I was thinking.

Electile Dysfunction should also be a thing and America has it.

 

[tommy]

Saw one comment about bad weather in Arkansas and one about good weather in central PA. Anyone aware of any other weather issues that could suppress the vote anywhere, in particular in swing states?