2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election


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In school they use to take us into the forests for science field trips and would tells us the rhythm "If it's black, fight back. If it's brown, lie down” even though we have no brown bears in the state.
Yeah, well, sometimes it's better to forget what you learned in school, especially when it's being taught by people who don't live near brown bears. The only way that advice works is if the bear is already on you, and by then you're in a world of hurt either way. It might save you from death, but that's about it.
 
What they leave out is "if it's white, say 'good night'." Thankfully, there isn't much threat of polar bear encounter here in NC, outside of the NC Zoo.
This is why we only visit the zoo in the summer. That poor bear is half dead with heart exhaustion to worry about eating me!
 
Also, this may mean nothing but the Trump Truth Social stock (symbol: DJT) is now up about 25% in the past two days, including today's trading. It was over $50 per share 10 days ago and then plummeted to below $30 per share and is now back up to $38/share or so. Maybe some investors are taking a flyer on the stock, with the assumption that if Trump wins, the stock price will jump in value?
It's a stock with high upside if Trump wins, so maybe investors think it's worth hedging for and if there's even a 25% chance of a 200% gain, then its' worth it mathematically. The valuations of the company are completely out of whack with its revenues, but a Trump win would definitely make the current pricing likely low. It's basically a speculative meme stock a la Gamestop and AMC were in the past.
You can't use rational analysis on meme stocks. Even if Trump won every EC vote, DJT would have to increase revenue by 5000x to justify its the valuation (without increasing expenses). It's a stock for trading not investing.
 
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That guy has gone all-in on Florida. Which, if it works out for him, great. But I'm not feeling that one at all. He's already whiffed on the early vote composition data, so he's going to really need the R-to-D crossover and independent vote swinging hard to Dem for his call not to look really bad. The party affiliation ballot advantage is about 1 million as of this morning's count.

I think Harris is going to win comfortably overall, but I'm not feeling his prediction of Florida for Harris right now.
I never found Bouzy very credible. Would love him to be right, but this seems absurd.
 
I wish I had known this earlier, Trump is going to put Herschel Walker in charge of a missile defense shield if elected.


I believe it was at this same rally that he said it would be interesting to put Kamala Harris in the ring with Mike Tyson. Violence against women is a very interesting campaign strategy.
 
And to address the argument above, Star Blazers had the best theme song. Ask Deslok. He’ll back me up.
Fun fact, Space Battleship Yamato (which is the Japanese original) has the same theme, which is rarely the case for anime that was localized back in the late 70s and 80s. I'd be curious if Speed Racer is the same, because that theme slaps (as the kids say)
 
Eastern NC is red, but there are a couple counties that vote blue. Pitt County (Greenville/ECU) is one of those. This is a report out this morning.

Hundreds more voters have turned out in one Eastern Carolina county on election day so far compared to the last presidential election.

The Pitt County Board of Elections says that 5,383 people have voted so far as of their 10 a.m. update.

That’s compared to 4,772 in 2020 and 4,937 in 2016.
 
I wish I had known this earlier, Trump is going to put Herschel Walker in charge of a missile defense shield if elected.


I believe it was at this same rally that he said it would be interesting to put Kamala Harris in the ring with Mike Tyson. Violence against women is a very interesting campaign strategy.
So we expecting Canada or Mexico to start firing rockets?

Spoiler!
 
I wish I had known this earlier, Trump is going to put Herschel Walker in charge of a missile defense shield if elected.


I believe it was at this same rally that he said it would be interesting to put Kamala Harris in the ring with Mike Tyson. Violence against women is a very interesting campaign strategy.
Herschel can’t block
 
I never found Bouzy very credible. Would love him to be right, but this seems absurd.
Yeah, he got a huge following in 2022 because he correctly predicted that there wouldn't be a red wave. But even then, he got the House wrong (saying the Dems would win the House, and continuing to do so after election day, even after it was clear to everyone analyzing the actual vote data was saying the GOP would take it).

Much like the prediction markets, I'm not going to put much stock in him based largely on an N of 1 national election (and not even a presidential election at that).
 
E-Day turnout so far in Clark county has Dems running neck and neck with the GOP. Good news for Dems if the trend continues.
Definitely seems like the possibility that the GOP cannibalized some of it's ED vote by voting early this time. Which seems obvious, but a lot of people weren't sure. We'll see how the rest of the day plays out, but generally the vote gets bluer as the day goes on.

Still, the Dems are going to probably need a fair bit more mail ballots to arrive to feel good.
 
E-Day turnout so far in Clark county has Dems running neck and neck with the GOP. Good news for Dems if the trend continues.
Won't they need to out pace them to makeup for the other parts of the state or does the population destiny make Las Vegas and Reno the only places that matter?
 
CameronBlue - I was liking your post when it disappeared in the ether. Guess you were right about that entropy always wins thing.
 
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