2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election


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It will be a battle. AOC is now old enough to run.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out. As of 2004, I'm not sure the general consensus was that Obama would be the clear candidate in 2008. He did give a great speech, but was still really early in his political career. And as of 2014, nobody would have predicted Trump would so quickly become the face of the GOP. You just never know who is next.

The obvious candidates as of now to try will be Shapiro, Newsom, and AOC. Maybe Buttigieg, Bashear, and Klobuchar throw their hats in the ring, and maybe even Whitmer. There are a lot of candidates who MIGHT seem like possibilities, but it's also possible that the candidate hasn't even emerged yet.

But I think a big thing is going to be starting to win the narrative on relevant media streams moving forward. Without that, I think it's going to be an uphill battle.
 
Again, I'm not sure that's really true, outside of Trump.
Well, I thought it was a given since I'm specifically talking POTUS (the only vote everyone, in every state, gets to decide) and the national (not local) Electorate. Obviously Trump (knock on wood) will be gone in 4 years and we'll all have a chance to see how that dynamic plays out.
 
Well, I thought it was a given since I'm specifically talking POTUS (the only vote everyone, in every state, gets to decide) and the national (not local) Electorate. Obviously Trump (knock on wood) will be gone in 4 years and we'll all have a chance to see how that dynamic plays out.

I only talked about national-level positions. Consistently in each state, Trump ran well ahead of his GOP Senate candidates. The only state where that didn't happen was Florida, where the most milquetoast old-school candidate matched him. And this has been true for 8 years. So I don't know whether it's drama that the electorate is saying they want when they keep voting Trump more than other candidates, or whether it's just Trump.
 
I personally really like AOC but I think she is a bridge too far for the other 50%. Give her another 20 years.
You may be right. But on the other hand, in a country where people are mad as hell about the status quo economic situation, she may be the best out there at capturing that anger, other than maybe Bernie, who is obviously too old.
 
I only talked about national-level positions. Consistently in each state, Trump ran well ahead of his GOP Senate candidates. The only state where that didn't happen was Florida, where the most milquetoast old-school candidate matched him. And this has been true for 8 years. So I don't know whether it's drama that the electorate is saying they want when they keep voting Trump more than other candidates, or whether it's just Trump.
Gotcha. Right now it seems (to me) to be a both/and scenario. The drama works for Trump in particular. And it works against any "normal" candidate running against him. Biden pulled it off (barely) with COVID being a huge factor. But outside of that, it seems to me we are just in a weird place where folk are saying they don't want a traditional "politician" running the country at present. I think the GOP POTUS primaries have demonstrated that for almost a decade now.
 
Too early for the 2028 thread?
I used to be a Gabbard supporter. She's switched teams .I'll have to revisit what she's supporting now. A few years ago it would have been no contest for my vote no matter the party .ofcourse that's vp dependent.
I really didn't think DJT was going to be a candidate or JB .I wasn't sure of the means of removal of either.
My daughter and her wife/partner .well my new daughter. (I'm not sure what to call them) are very liberal. Where as I believe I'm in the middle more or less. I mentioned Gabbard to her .I got that look a cotton mouth gives you when you pull your fish away.
I probably would have liked Vance more if he would have stayed away from the maga movement.
I suspect he will be the candidate in 28 for the R maybe Gabbard or desantis as vp.
I believe Haley has run her course politically.
Tim Scott aswell. Should be interesting with out DJT in the mix.maybe we can get back to normalcy.
I'm not sure whom the D will choose .I'm not quite sure JB would have made it with out covid.
The ultimate fantasy would be a third party evolving to meet most of the needs of both parties supporters .interesting times.
 
AOC has no chance.

Mondaire Jones was running against Mike Lawler in my district. At least 90% of the commercials against him featured AOC. And he lost by a pretty big margin - and he was our congressman before Lawler.
She’d have some work to do, that’s for sure. Crazier things have happened. The Cubs won the World Series.
 
AOC has no chance.

Mondaire Jones was running against Mike Lawler in my district. At least 90% of the commercials against him featured AOC. And he lost by a pretty big margin - and he was our congressman before Lawler.
Yup. I'm in the same media market and saw those ads non-stop. She is the best thing that ever happened to MAGA. I'm a moderate D and I really dislike her. I don't dislike her enough that I would flip, but I really dislike her. She just showed up in DC and fired away, without thinking of the greater good of her party. I know that many think of her as a change agent but that's not how things work, especially not today - you have to be more strategic about it. And learn to occasionally say "no comment." Nationally she is a net negative for the party.

A lot will happen between now and 2028 so it is too soon to speculate. As noted above, I grew to like Harris. And given when Biden finally quit, they had to go with her. But the lesson learned is that there was a lot of dislike of the Biden administration, right or wrong. So having someone who was an active part of that administration was a losing formula. The Dems would have been better off with someone who could strategically distance them self from Biden (such as a governor) without totally throwing him under the bus.
 
Yup. I'm in the same media market and saw those ads non-stop. She is the best thing that ever happened to MAGA. I'm a moderate D and I really dislike her. I don't dislike her enough that I would flip, but I really dislike her. She just showed up in DC and fired away, without thinking of the greater good of her party. I know that many think of her as a change agent but that's not how things work, especially not today - you have to be more strategic about it. And learn to occasionally say "no comment." Nationally she is a net negative for the party.

A lot will happen between now and 2028 so it is too soon to speculate. As noted above, I grew to like Harris. And given when Biden finally quit, they had to go with her. But the lesson learned is that there was a lot of dislike of the Biden administration, right or wrong. So having someone who was an active part of that administration was a losing formula. The Dems would have been better off with someone who could strategically distance them self from Biden (such as a governor) without totally throwing him under the bus.
Ultimately, the best Dem candidate will depend a great deal on how the next 4 years go for the GOP. Will it be a referendum on whatever happens? Or will it be an uphill fight? I'm intentionally not going to speculate on which of those situations will be the case because of board rules, but that will matter a lot in terms of what candidate emerges on the Dem side (as well as which candidate will emerge on the GOP side).
 
She just showed up in DC and fired away, without thinking of the greater good of her party. I know that many think of her as a change agent but that's not how things work, especially not today - you have to be more strategic about it. And learn to occasionally say "no comment." Nationally she is a net negative for the party.

I get what you are saying but the quoted part also describes Trump pretty well. It may be that people are just sick of the parties. I think we are in an anti-status quo period.
 
Yup. I'm in the same media market and saw those ads non-stop. She is the best thing that ever happened to MAGA. I'm a moderate D and I really dislike her. I don't dislike her enough that I would flip, but I really dislike her. She just showed up in DC and fired away, without thinking of the greater good of her party. I know that many think of her as a change agent but that's not how things work, especially not today - you have to be more strategic about it. And learn to occasionally say "no comment." Nationally she is a net negative for the party.

A lot will happen between now and 2028 so it is too soon to speculate. As noted above, I grew to like Harris. And given when Biden finally quit, they had to go with her. But the lesson learned is that there was a lot of dislike of the Biden administration, right or wrong. So having someone who was an active part of that administration was a losing formula. The Dems would have been better off with someone who could strategically distance them self from Biden (such as a governor) without totally throwing him under the bus.
I'm in the boat and I will do the rowing. I don't like her either. In my opinion, both parties have a lot of improving to do. If I'm still around and in my right mind, I hope posters on the 2028 thread don't lump all supporters of the candidates together. Some of my friends that voted for Trump don't like him at all, but they voted for the Republican platform.
 
Some of my friends that voted for Trump don't like him at all, but they voted for the Republican platform.
This is an interesting statement, because Trump outperformed the Republican candidates by a large margin. And this is the third straight time that's been true. There were VERY few GOP candidates who came close to his vote share. Rick Scott did in Florida, but almost across the board Trump outperformed his Senate candidates by a wide margin. In the swing states, it appears that plenty of voters may have voted for Trump and just totally ignored downballot candidates altogether. So I'm not seeing a lot of "party over candidate" evidence. Not saying it's not there, but the prevailing vote seems to have been "Trump over party", even among GOP voters.
 
This is an interesting statement, because Trump outperformed the Republican candidates by a large margin. And this is the third straight time that's been true. There were VERY few GOP candidates who came close to his vote share. Rick Scott did in Florida, but almost across the board Trump outperformed his Senate candidates by a wide margin. In the swing states, it appears that plenty of voters may have voted for Trump and just totally ignored downballot candidates altogether. So I'm not seeing a lot of "party over candidate" evidence. Not saying it's not there, but the prevailing vote seems to have been "Trump over party", even among GOP voters.
I guess all my friends are not alike. :alien:
 
This is an interesting statement, because Trump outperformed the Republican candidates by a large margin. And this is the third straight time that's been true. There were VERY few GOP candidates who came close to his vote share. Rick Scott did in Florida, but almost across the board Trump outperformed his Senate candidates by a wide margin. In the swing states, it appears that plenty of voters may have voted for Trump and just totally ignored downballot candidates altogether. So I'm not seeing a lot of "party over candidate" evidence. Not saying it's not there, but the prevailing vote seems to have been "Trump over party", even among GOP voters.
Steve Troxler (Commissioner of Agriculture) in NC ran almost +2% ahead of Trump. What can I say, the State Fair is a well run ship.

Mike Causey (Commissioner of Insurance) and Brad Briner (Treasurer) both ran almost 2% ahead of Trump. So, while it's not a national election they are state wide races that say Trump (R) win with almost 51% and Stein (D) win with almost 55%
 
Steve Troxler (Commissioner of Agriculture) in NC ran almost +2% ahead of Trump. What can I say, the State Fair is a well run ship.

Mike Causey (Commissioner of Insurance) and Brad Briner (Treasurer) both ran almost 2% ahead of Trump. So, while it's not a national election they are state wide races that say Trump (R) win with almost 51% and Stein (D) win with almost 55%
Yeah, I was referring to national level candidates. State and local politics are entirely different animals. There are countless examples of local/state GOP candidates in blue states running ahead of Trump.
 
Steve Troxler (Commissioner of Agriculture) in NC ran almost +2% ahead of Trump. What can I say, the State Fair is a well run ship.

Mike Causey (Commissioner of Insurance) and Brad Briner (Treasurer) both ran almost 2% ahead of Trump. So, while it's not a national election they are state wide races that say Trump (R) win with almost 51% and Stein (D) win with almost 55%
Stein got 55 percent. And Robinson got 40! Astounding.
 
Ultimately, the best Dem candidate will depend a great deal on how the next 4 years go for the GOP. Will it be a referendum on whatever happens? Or will it be an uphill fight? I'm intentionally not going to speculate on which of those situations will be the case because of board rules, but that will matter a lot in terms of what candidate emerges on the Dem side (as well as which candidate will emerge on the GOP side).
Almost impossible to predict where things go next. There's a great 3 minute clip from Jon Stewart on Tuesday about not trying to make hot take decisions based on the results.

The gist was that after Hillary lost, conventional wisdom was that the best Democrat nominee would be a much younger candidate. Well, after Trump 1.0 the thinking had shifted to "we need someone experienced who won't rock the boat" and ee got Biden.
 
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