best half of football I've seen Duke play in the 57 years I've followed them, but I'm still ticked that Cut kicked the FG to end the first half. We'd been flattening them for the entire first half.
2024 FB Bowl Watch
- Thread starter CameronBornAndBred
- Start date
CameronBlue
Member
Yup and 4 point loss is reflected in the difference between a FG and a TD. Stinks.
MarkD83
Member
Just a general bowl eligibility update. (Stating with the updated summary.)
There are 134 FBS teams. Six wins are needed to be bowl eligible and there are 82 bowl spots including the 12 teams in the CFP. Right now there are 77 teams with 6 wins so 5 spots to fill. There are 41 teams with 7 or more losses and thus out of the running. That leaves 16 teams still in the running.
UVA plays VT and they both sit at 5-6 so one of them becomes eligible.
E. Michigan plays W. Michigan and they both sit at 5-6 so one of them becomes eligible.
That would leave 3 spots and here are the other 12 with 5 wins and who they play. The team listed first is the team that needs the win to get to 6 wins.
App State v Ga Southern
North Texas v Temple
NC State v unc (Go Pack!!!)
Cincinnati v TCU
Kansas v Baylor
Wisconsin v Minnesota
Michigan State v Rutgers
New Mexico v Hawaii
Oregon State v Boise State
Auburn v Alabama (Go War Eagles or are the Tigers?!!!)
Coastal Carolina v GA State
UL Monroe v Louisiana (not LSU)
It is possible that more than 3 of these teams get a win so any team with just 6 wins and a low APR is in danger of not going to a bowl game.
If I assume all teams that need a 6th win get that win and all teams currently with 6 wins do not get a 7th win here are the teams in danger of not getting a bowl bid based on APR. I listed the 9 that are in danger with the team with the worst APR at the top of the list.
UL Monroe Warhawks
UTSA Roadrunners
New Mexico Lobos
Texas State Bobcats
Western Michigan Broncos
North Texas Mean Green
San José State Spartans
South Alabama Jaguars
South Florida Bulls
There are 134 FBS teams. Six wins are needed to be bowl eligible and there are 82 bowl spots including the 12 teams in the CFP. Right now there are 77 teams with 6 wins so 5 spots to fill. There are 41 teams with 7 or more losses and thus out of the running. That leaves 16 teams still in the running.
UVA plays VT and they both sit at 5-6 so one of them becomes eligible.
E. Michigan plays W. Michigan and they both sit at 5-6 so one of them becomes eligible.
That would leave 3 spots and here are the other 12 with 5 wins and who they play. The team listed first is the team that needs the win to get to 6 wins.
App State v Ga Southern
North Texas v Temple
NC State v unc (Go Pack!!!)
Cincinnati v TCU
Kansas v Baylor
Wisconsin v Minnesota
Michigan State v Rutgers
New Mexico v Hawaii
Oregon State v Boise State
Auburn v Alabama (Go War Eagles or are the Tigers?!!!)
Coastal Carolina v GA State
UL Monroe v Louisiana (not LSU)
It is possible that more than 3 of these teams get a win so any team with just 6 wins and a low APR is in danger of not going to a bowl game.
If I assume all teams that need a 6th win get that win and all teams currently with 6 wins do not get a 7th win here are the teams in danger of not getting a bowl bid based on APR. I listed the 9 that are in danger with the team with the worst APR at the top of the list.
UL Monroe Warhawks
UTSA Roadrunners
New Mexico Lobos
Texas State Bobcats
Western Michigan Broncos
North Texas Mean Green
San José State Spartans
South Alabama Jaguars
South Florida Bulls
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt
Member
247 Sports has Duke playing Missouri in the Gator Bowl. That would be a great bowl game for the Devils. Of course beating Wake is required to get that invite. Hopefully the prognosticators are correct.
I'm pretty sure APR is only a consideration for when waivers need to be granted to 5-7 teams to fill out the bowls.
When there are more than enough teams, the low end bowls get filled through a somewhat chaotic musical chairs type of process.
There's a bit of a game of chicken that goes on also as these bowls would like to grab a power conference team if one falls to them. The games being played earlier in December have to make decisions quickly. La Tech with a 9-3 record got left out in 2012 because of such a scenario.
BrummieDevil
Member
Even before getting to the APR stuff, I was reading your post thinking, "San Jose State really needs all those 5-win teams to lose" because fan interest (or disinterest) alone would keep them out of a bowl game.
Disappointing as an alum that their APR is so low, though, even as the university as a whole keeps climbing way up the rankings.
People wanted the 12 team playoff for parity and boy we have a mess to sort out. On top of that a lot of teams with big time brands are going to be left out so thats definitely going to affect every bowl on down the list.
Notable teams who will most likely be left out: Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, BYU and Colorado (depends on how the Big XII champ game shakes out), Michigan, Illinois, Clemson and Louisville. There's also the chance that the ACC CG loser also gets left out. I doubt this happens but I won't say its impossible. If NCSU wins against UNC, that will directly impact Duke probably more than a loss to WF. They'll play like crap but the fanbase will travel. VT will also have a similar impact if they beat UVA.
Notable teams who will most likely be left out: Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, BYU and Colorado (depends on how the Big XII champ game shakes out), Michigan, Illinois, Clemson and Louisville. There's also the chance that the ACC CG loser also gets left out. I doubt this happens but I won't say its impossible. If NCSU wins against UNC, that will directly impact Duke probably more than a loss to WF. They'll play like crap but the fanbase will travel. VT will also have a similar impact if they beat UVA.
Mike Petrik
Member
Duke Bowl Projections:
Minnesota? CBS now has Duke matched with Minnesota at Mayo January 3. Another source has that same matchup in Tampa's ReliaQuest Bowl December 31.
Missouri? Both 247 Sports and Sporting News instead project Duke playing Missouri, either in the Gator Bowl January 2 or the Music City Bowl December 30.
Washington State? ESPN's Schlabach has us playing Washington State December 27 in the Holiday Bowl.
Iowa State? ESPN's Bonagura has us playing Iowa State December 28 in the Pop Tarts Bowl.
Frankly, any of these matchups would be pretty appealing to me, but a Gator Bowl invite sure would be sweet.
Gotta beat Wake!
Minnesota? CBS now has Duke matched with Minnesota at Mayo January 3. Another source has that same matchup in Tampa's ReliaQuest Bowl December 31.
Missouri? Both 247 Sports and Sporting News instead project Duke playing Missouri, either in the Gator Bowl January 2 or the Music City Bowl December 30.
Washington State? ESPN's Schlabach has us playing Washington State December 27 in the Holiday Bowl.
Iowa State? ESPN's Bonagura has us playing Iowa State December 28 in the Pop Tarts Bowl.
Frankly, any of these matchups would be pretty appealing to me, but a Gator Bowl invite sure would be sweet.
Gotta beat Wake!
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Mike Petrik
Member
Duke Bowl Projections (Updated):
Minnesota? Both CBS and USA Today has Duke matched with Minnesota at Mayo January 3. College Football Network has that same matchup in Tampa's ReliaQuest Bowl December 31.
Missouri? Both 247 Sports and Sporting News instead project Duke playing Missouri, either in the Gator Bowl January 2 or the Music City Bowl December 30.
Washington State? ESPN's Schlabach has us playing Washington State December 27 in the Holiday Bowl.
Iowa State? ESPN's Bonagura has us playing Iowa State December 28 in the Pop Tarts Bowl.
Michigan? Athlon has us matched with Michigan in the Pinstripe Bowl on the 28th.
Frankly, any of these matchups would be pretty appealing to me, but a Gator Bowl invite sure would be sweet.
Gotta beat Wake!
Minnesota? Both CBS and USA Today has Duke matched with Minnesota at Mayo January 3. College Football Network has that same matchup in Tampa's ReliaQuest Bowl December 31.
Missouri? Both 247 Sports and Sporting News instead project Duke playing Missouri, either in the Gator Bowl January 2 or the Music City Bowl December 30.
Washington State? ESPN's Schlabach has us playing Washington State December 27 in the Holiday Bowl.
Iowa State? ESPN's Bonagura has us playing Iowa State December 28 in the Pop Tarts Bowl.
Michigan? Athlon has us matched with Michigan in the Pinstripe Bowl on the 28th.
Frankly, any of these matchups would be pretty appealing to me, but a Gator Bowl invite sure would be sweet.
Gotta beat Wake!
CameronBornAndBred
Well-known member
Unfortunately a 7-5 Carolina team will bump a 8-4 Duke team for a bowl like Charlotte. However, if we get to 9 wins, I don't think a bowl like Charlotte is in play anymore as we'll be heading to greener pastures.
Side note, I was talking to one of the FB parents at tailgate on Saturday, and his comment was "While I'd love my son to be able to play somewhere great and exotic, I like being able to drive to Charlotte."
I'm kind of with him there, it's probably the only bowl I can make it to given the location and date.ESPN Link: https://www.espn.com/college-football/standings
The ACC will have 12-13 bowl teams depending on whether NCSU holds up its end of the bargain this weekend. There are 14 ACC slots realistically (ND + 1 ACC team to the CFP) so you can take off the "or" bowls off the list. Saturday's attendance really hurt for bowl selection in the warm-weather tier. Remember that Duke was the 2nd to last pick for the ACC last year despite going 7-5 (4-4) and blowing out Clemson, but I would put the odds at 90% right now for a P4 opponent.
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Sweeter than Pop Tarts? Gator bites are more of a savory.
CameronBornAndBred
Well-known member
Looking at all these options and dates, it's hard to know "what bowl is a good bowl". One would assume (meaning me) that a game after New Years would be a better than one before, but that's not always the case. So to help things out, I give you this tier ranking that I found from last year. In the article, you can read how they figure out each one.
With Duke now being predicted by one ESPN guy in the Holiday Bowl, that's respectable, as is another ESPN prediction, the Pop-Tarts Bowl. (Used to be the Cheez-It)
With Duke now being predicted by one ESPN guy in the Holiday Bowl, that's respectable, as is another ESPN prediction, the Pop-Tarts Bowl. (Used to be the Cheez-It)
Tier 1: The Big Time
- Sugar (13.31)
- Orange (13.14)
- Fiesta (12.21)
- Rose (12.06)
- Cotton (11.30)
Tier 2: The Next Best Thing
- Citrus (7.70)
- Holiday (6.81)
- Gator (6.77)
- Peach (6.32)
- Alamo (6.27)
Tier 3: A Solid Matchup
- ReliaQuest (5.54)
- Liberty (4.25)
- Sun (4.02)
- Las Vegas (3.23)
- Cheez-It (3.09)
Tier 4: Rising New Bowls or Stagnant Older Ones
- Cure (2.88)
- Boca Raton (2.22)
- New Orleans (2.14)
- Music City (2.13)
- Independence (2.02)
- Arizona (2.00)
Tier 5: Not Ready for Prime Time
- Armed Forces (1.8)
- Pinstripe (1.75)
- Duke’s Mayo (1.71)
- Guaranteed Rate (1.64)
- Birmingham (1.63)
- Frisco (1.5)
- First Responder 1.42)
- Texas (1.05)
Tier 6: Ya Basic
- Hawaii
- New Mexico
- Military
- Camellia
- Bahamas
- Myrtle Beach
- LA
- Fenway
Tier 7: Almost “The Blutarsky”
- Quick Lane (0.92)
- Famous Idaho Potato (0.62)
- LendingTree (0.38)
- Gasparilla (0.29)
OldPhiKap
Super Moderator
Great stuff, thanks CB&B!!!!Looking at all these options and dates, it's hard to know "what bowl is a good bowl". One would assume (meaning me) that a game after New Years would be a better than one before, but that's not always the case. So to help things out, I give you this tier ranking that I found from last year. In the article, you can read how they figure out each one.
With Duke now being predicted by one ESPN guy in the Holiday Bowl, that's respectable, as is another ESPN prediction, the Pop-Tarts Bowl. (Used to be the Cheez-It)
Tier 1: The Big Time
- Sugar (13.31)
- Orange (13.14)
- Fiesta (12.21)
- Rose (12.06)
- Cotton (11.30)
Tier 2: The Next Best Thing
- Citrus (7.70)
- Holiday (6.81)
- Gator (6.77)
- Peach (6.32)
- Alamo (6.27)
Tier 3: A Solid Matchup
- ReliaQuest (5.54)
- Liberty (4.25)
- Sun (4.02)
- Las Vegas (3.23)
- Cheez-It (3.09)
Tier 4: Rising New Bowls or Stagnant Older Ones
- Cure (2.88)
- Boca Raton (2.22)
- New Orleans (2.14)
- Music City (2.13)
- Independence (2.02)
- Arizona (2.00)
Tier 5: Not Ready for Prime Time
- Armed Forces (1.8)
- Pinstripe (1.75)
- Duke’s Mayo (1.71)
- Guaranteed Rate (1.64)
- Birmingham (1.63)
- Frisco (1.5)
- First Responder 1.42)
- Texas (1.05)
Tier 6: Ya Basic
Every bowl in this tier is at a flat 1.00.
- Hawaii
- New Mexico
- Military
- Camellia
- Bahamas
- Myrtle Beach
- LA
- Fenway
Tier 7: Almost “The Blutarsky”
- Quick Lane (0.92)
- Famous Idaho Potato (0.62)
- LendingTree (0.38)
- Gasparilla (0.29)
CameronBlue
Member
Yeah I'll echo Old Fly Trap's post but what is a Boomer (and a young one at that) supposed to do with "Duke now being predicted by one ESPN guy in the Holiday Bowl, that's respectable, as is another ESPN prediction, the Pop-Tarts Bowl. (Used to be the Cheez-It)"? Oh!! You mean the CHEEZ-IT Bowl! Well you should've said something, WOW!!
hallcity
Member
Looking at all these options and dates, it's hard to know "what bowl is a good bowl". One would assume (meaning me) that a game after New Years would be a better than one before, but that's not always the case. So to help things out, I give you this tier ranking that I found from last year. In the article, you can read how they figure out each one.
With Duke now being predicted by one ESPN guy in the Holiday Bowl, that's respectable, as is another ESPN prediction, the Pop-Tarts Bowl. (Used to be the Cheez-It)
Tier 1: The Big Time
- Sugar (13.31)
- Orange (13.14)
- Fiesta (12.21)
- Rose (12.06)
- Cotton (11.30)
Tier 2: The Next Best Thing
- Citrus (7.70)
- Holiday (6.81)
- Gator (6.77)
- Peach (6.32)
- Alamo (6.27)
Tier 3: A Solid Matchup
- ReliaQuest (5.54)
- Liberty (4.25)
- Sun (4.02)
- Las Vegas (3.23)
- Cheez-It (3.09)
Tier 4: Rising New Bowls or Stagnant Older Ones
- Cure (2.88)
- Boca Raton (2.22)
- New Orleans (2.14)
- Music City (2.13)
- Independence (2.02)
- Arizona (2.00)
Tier 5: Not Ready for Prime Time
- Armed Forces (1.8)
- Pinstripe (1.75)
- Duke’s Mayo (1.71)
- Guaranteed Rate (1.64)
- Birmingham (1.63)
- Frisco (1.5)
- First Responder 1.42)
- Texas (1.05)
Tier 6: Ya Basic
Every bowl in this tier is at a flat 1.00.
- Hawaii
- New Mexico
- Military
- Camellia
- Bahamas
- Myrtle Beach
- LA
- Fenway
Tier 7: Almost “The Blutarsky”
- Quick Lane (0.92)
- Famous Idaho Potato (0.62)
- LendingTree (0.38)
- Gasparilla (0.29)
What do those numbers mean? Payout? TV ratings?
Going to San Diego in December doesn’t sound bad.
CameronBornAndBred
Well-known member
I literally wrote in my post....
"In the article, you can read how they figure out each one."
MarkD83
Member
Thanks for the correction on the APR.