2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season: General Offseason Discussion

[SkyBrickey]

I imagine the toughest thing this team will face this year is the locker room dynamics when some really good players that could start on most power conference teams are riding the bench because there simply isn’t enough minutes to go around.

This is the deepest Duke team 1-11 in the OAD era. I think all 11 guys could start on a P4 team this season.

I'm hoping #10 and #11 are mentally on a two year plan and not expecting to play much. I think it's the guys who end up in the 8,9 slots and who would typically play 6-14mpg who are most at risk to be unhappy.

I mentioned upthread this idea of two 4-man platoons around Cooper with all 8 guys getting 20 intense minutes per game and Cooper playing 30-35mpg. That's got to be a real consideration for Jon when all the guys 2-9 are so talented. It could help with any locker room issues. But could it win a championship?

 

[gam7]

Just saw this quick read and 1.5-minute video interview about K2 and family from almost exactly a year ago (i.e., before he went on his official recruiting visits). It gave me a lot more insight into his parents, what K2 is like, and where he's coming from than anything I've seen before.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Every one of those players you mentioned had minimal to zero competition for minutes. K and Jon (in Jared's case) had no choice but to play those players major minutes. Parker, Kennard, Griffin, and Hurt played on the five worst Duke defensive teams of the OAD era. Jabari, Jah and Bagley were also the first option on offense as freshmen. Cooper will be the first option next season. Chances are option two will be one of Tyrese and Caleb. At best Kon is looking at being the third option on offense, possibly even fourth.

Jon has brought in 3 players who have proven at the D1 level that they can contribute both offensively and defensively. Why would he play a player who is a negative on the defensive end?

Why? Why is Luka Doncic one of the top players in the league yet just an average defender? A great offensive player not only puts up efficient points but lifts the game of the other four guys around him.

I'm not saying yet that's Kon, but that's the potential he has for this team. Neither Gillis or James have that potential. I expect both of them to play 15-25mpg for all they do bring, but that could still leave starters minutes for Kon.

 

[phaedrus]

Every one of those players you mentioned had minimal to zero competition for minutes. K and Jon (in Jared's case) had no choice but to play those players major minutes. Parker, Kennard, Griffin, and Hurt played on the five worst Duke defensive teams of the OAD era. Jabari, Jah and Bagley were also the first option on offense as freshmen. Cooper will be the first option next season. Chances are option two will be one of Tyrese and Caleb. At best Kon is looking at being the third option on offense, possibly even fourth.

Jon has brought in 3 players who have proven at the D1 level that they can contribute both offensively and defensively. Why would he play a player who is a negative on the defensive end?

You missed my point, which was to address the specific argument that "offensively gifted freshmen at Duke often ride the bench because they are poor defenders." I don't think it's true.

Your point that Parker, Kennard, Griffin and Hurt played on bad defensive teams only supports my view. Coach K was willing to play bad defensive players on a bad defensive team (and of course he could have played those guys less if he thought it would make the team better) because their offense made up for it.

As for the broader point, it remains to be seen whether this is by far the deepest team in Duke history, as your posts imply. (To hear you tell it, no one at Duke has ever competed for playing time until this year.)

Regardless, I think if our best offensive five includes Kon on the court, then he will play substantial minutes even if he is a subpar defensive player.

 

[Nrrrrvous]

I hear what you are saying wrt Caleb, but a guard's rebounding numbers can be heavily influenced by scheme. He may be asked to leak out to start the offense or go back on D. I remember reading that Jared had to talk Jon into letting him go for rebounds.

I would be surprised if Caleb and Khaman didn't start. I remember Kedsy (I miss that poster) had a minutes scale based on rankings and experience. I think Caleb and Khaman would still have a leg up on the Kedsy scale, though I am not certain.

Kedsy's scale was fairly easy...
Each player gets a point value based on their RSCI ranking:
Rank 1-10 = 1 point
Rank 11-20 = 2 points
Rank 21-35 = 3 points
Rank 36+ = 4 points

And then you subtract .5 for every year that they have played college ball.

The 7 man rotation (he knew K too well) would be the top 4 (lowest points) perimeter players and the top 3 "bigs"

If we apply the Kedsy logic to this year we have a little bit of murkiness

Player Scores:

Proctor: 4-1 = 3 (Murky because he reclassified and didn't even get ranked by several, the best I ever saw him was a 35)
Foster: 2-.5 = 1.5
Flagg: 1
Brown: 4-1 = 3
Maluach: ?? (Not ranked by most sites although some consider a top 10?)
Knueppel: 2
Evans: 2
Ngongba: 3
Harris: 3
James: 4-2 = 2
Gillis: 4-2 = 2

Do we put Flagg with the Perimeter group or do we put him with the Bigs group? It matters.

Forgetting Flagg for a minute

Top Perimeter players:
Foster 1.5
Knueppel 2
Evans 2
James 2
Gillis 2
Proctor 3
Harris 3

We immediately see that this isn't going to work because a) We all pretty much agree that Proctor will be the starting PG and b) After Proctor and Foster we have 4 guys with the same score battling for 2 spots. Kedsy, if I recall, always gave the tie to the more experienced player. But what if that experience was at a different school? Too murky...

Top Bigs:
Brown 3
Ngongba 3
Maluach ??

We are lucky we only have 3 so they would all be in the rotation, except for... Flagg.

So no matter how hard I try, I can't get the Kedsy logic to work this year. It CAN tell us two things for "certain" - Foster and Flagg will be in the rotation. Beyond that? Who knows...

 

[SkyBrickey]

Kedsy's scale was fairly easy...
Each player gets a point value based on their RSCI ranking:
Rank 1-10 = 1 point
Rank 11-20 = 2 points
Rank 21-35 = 3 points
Rank 36+ = 4 points

And then you subtract .5 for every year that they have played college ball.

The 7 man rotation (he knew K too well) would be the top 4 (lowest points) perimeter players and the top 3 "bigs"

If we apply the Kedsy logic to this year we have a little bit of murkiness

Player Scores:

Proctor: 4-1 = 3 (Murky because he reclassified and didn't even get ranked by several, the best I ever saw him was a 35)
Foster: 2-.5 = 1.5
Flagg: 1
Brown: 4-1 = 3
Maluach: ?? (Not ranked by most sites although some consider a top 10?)
Knueppel: 2
Evans: 2
Ngongba: 3
Harris: 3
James: 4-2 = 2
Gillis: 4-2 = 2

Do we put Flagg with the Perimeter group or do we put him with the Bigs group? It matters.

Forgetting Flagg for a minute

Top Perimeter players:
Foster 1.5
Knueppel 2
Evans 2
James 2
Gillis 2
Proctor 3
Harris 3

We immediately see that this isn't going to work because a) We all pretty much agree that Proctor will be the starting PG and b) After Proctor and Foster we have 4 guys with the same score battling for 2 spots. Kedsy, if I recall, always gave the tie to the more experienced player. But what if that experience was at a different school? Too murky...

Top Bigs:
Brown 3
Ngongba 3
Maluach ??

We are lucky we only have 3 so they would all be in the rotation, except for... Flagg.

So no matter how hard I try, I can't get the Kedsy logic to work this year. It CAN tell us two things for "certain" - Foster and Flagg will be in the rotation. Beyond that? Who knows...

Thanks for putting in the effort! It also supports what a lot of us have been expressing which is there would be an epic battle for minutes among James, Gillis, K2 and Evans.

Another note on K2. He was a "late riser" in the recruiting rankings just like McCain. I think both guys were in the low 20s when we put out offers and maybe even when they signed. Evans on the other hand fell a few spots from when we offered.

 

[azzefkram]

Why? Why is Luka Doncic one of the top players in the league yet just an average defender? A great offensive player not only puts up efficient points but lifts the game of the other four guys around him.

I'm not saying yet that's Kon, but that's the potential he has for this team. Neither Gillis or James have that potential. I expect both of them to play 15-25mpg for all they do bring, but that could still leave starters minutes for Kon.

As I've said before, comparing a freshman to a top 10 player on the planet does a tremendous disservice to the freshman and brings less than nothing to the discussion. Kon would need a miracle to approach 50% of Luka and that's not a knock on Kon.

As for lifting up those around them, maybe to a degree but a poor defender can torpedo a defense. Also the likelihood of Kon being an average defender as a freshman is pretty low. He has three strikes against him. He's a freshman. His scouting report is mostly devoid of any mentions of defense. His athletic profile does not match someone who would excel at defense early in their career. Can he surprise defensively? Of course, but history says that is a long shot.

 

[azzefkram]

You missed my point, which was to address the specific argument that "offensively gifted freshmen at Duke often ride the bench because they are poor defenders." I don't think it's true.

Your point that Parker, Kennard, Griffin and Hurt played on bad defensive teams only supports my view. Coach K was willing to play bad defensive players on a bad defensive team (and of course he could have played those guys less if he thought it would make the team better) because their offense made up for it.

As for the broader point, it remains to be seen whether this is by far the deepest team in Duke history, as your posts imply. (To hear you tell it, no one at Duke has ever competed for playing time until this year.)

Regardless, I think if our best offensive five includes Kon on the court, then he will play substantial minutes even if he is a subpar defensive player.

TJ says hi. Mark M spent much of the first part of the season being an offensive black hole while TJ was only seen on the side of a milk carton.

Since Duke went OAD, competition for minutes (especially in the backcourt and wing) has been largely absent. Just go back and look.

Let's look at Jabari's case. If K decided that he could no longer put up with Jabari's lack of D, he could have turned to either Josh Hairston, Semi, or Alex Murphy. Maybe Josh was an okay defender but the other two would have been as bad if not worse than Jabari. The trade off wasn't worth it so Jabari stayed in the lineup. Jabari was also an elite offensive player. Kon will more than likely not be Jabari.

 

[DBKilby]

TJ says hi. Mark M spent much of the first part of the season being an offensive black hole while TJ was only seen on the side of a milk carton.

Since Duke went OAD, competition for minutes (especially in the backcourt and wing) has been largely absent. Just go back and look.

Let's look at Jabari's case. If K decided that he could no longer put up with Jabari's lack of D, he could have turned to either Josh Hairston, Semi, or Alex Murphy. Maybe Josh was an okay defender but the other two would have been as bad if not worse than Jabari. The trade off wasn't worth it so Jabari stayed in the lineup. Jabari was also an elite offensive player. Kon will more than likely not be Jabari.

It's was a popular topic on here a few months back but I think Kon will be a better playmaking version of Gary Trent. They are very similar in size and even athleticism but Kon cleary has him in that area to me.

 

[phaedrus]

TJ says hi. Mark M spent much of the first part of the season being an offensive black hole while TJ was only seen on the side of a milk carton.

Since Duke went OAD, competition for minutes (especially in the backcourt and wing) has been largely absent. Just go back and look.

Let's look at Jabari's case. If K decided that he could no longer put up with Jabari's lack of D, he could have turned to either Josh Hairston, Semi, or Alex Murphy. Maybe Josh was an okay defender but the other two would have been as bad if not worse than Jabari. The trade off wasn't worth it so Jabari stayed in the lineup. Jabari was also an elite offensive player. Kon will more than likely not be Jabari.

I mentioned TJ in my initial post. TJ's problem wasn't just defense. He was also ineffective on offense other than hitting an occasional three. If that's all KK can do, he won't play either. But if KK can do the things that, say, Luke Kennnard could do, his potentially subpar defense won't keep him off the court.

Jabari played 31 mpg despite being a terrible defensive player. That team had seven future NBA players on it, plus Rasheed Sulaimon and freshman Matt Jones, even then a far better defender than Parker. There were many possible lineups that featured Parker somewhat less, which would almost certainly have made us a better defensive team. Parker's offense was more important. Of course KK is not likely to match Parker on offense, but the same principle applies - if the offense talent is good enough, it outweighs subpar defense.

 

[hallcity]

The new scoreboard.

 

[chrishoke]

The new scoreboard.
View attachment 17656

How much bigger is it?

 

[brevity]

The new scoreboard.

They may need to raise the scoreboard just a little bit, unless Duke's strategy is to behead the opposing big men. (Won't work against UNC, as they have no big men.)

Anyway, I didn't see this posted before, but The Devils Den spoke with Sion James.

Transfer SF Sion James details what he brings to Duke and projects this year's ceiling

After being extremely productive for Tulane over four seasons, the powerful wing is now ready for a new challenge at Duke before becoming a professional

247sports.com

The 6-foot-6, 218 pound James scored more than 1,000 points while also adding more than 500 rebounds, 300 assists, and 150 steals during his four year stint with the Green Wave, and will be expected to provide that same level of versatility for Scheyer's third team at Duke.

It's a role the player says he's looking forward to, but during the program's "Summer Spotlight" feature on social media, James elected to move the spotlight back toward the team in lieu of focusing on himself, highlighting Duke's aspirations and apparent construction as a potential national title threat.

"We got the team for it, and everything is lining up great," James said of his team. "The talent's there. The pieces are there. Everything we need is there. But there's gonna be a lot that tries to tear us apart. And if we stay together when we're supposed to, then things will work out."

 

[SkyBrickey]

As I've said before, comparing a freshman to a top 10 player on the planet does a tremendous disservice to the freshman and brings less than nothing to the discussion. Kon would need a miracle to approach 50% of Luka and that's not a knock on Kon.

As for lifting up those around them, maybe to a degree but a poor defender can torpedo a defense. Also the likelihood of Kon being an average defender as a freshman is pretty low. He has three strikes against him. He's a freshman. His scouting report is mostly devoid of any mentions of defense. His athletic profile does not match someone who would excel at defense early in their career. Can he surprise defensively? Of course, but history says that is a long shot.

Ok, hold on. I wasn't saying Kon is Luka Doncic. Not even close. I was merely responding to this question of yours:

Jon has brought in 3 players who have proven at the D1 level that they can contribute both offensively and defensively. Why would he play a player who is a negative on the defensive end?

Don't you think the Mavs could replace Luka with a better defensive player? If you do, then your question is answered...

Look, I think we can agree that this debate all hinges on things we don't know. Just how good is Kon offensively? How is his defense? How is Sion's game translating at the P4 level?

It's very notable that the buzz coming out of the summer, especially from his teammates, is how good Kon looks. But in the end, it's Jon's opinion that matters.

 

[SkyBrickey]

It's was a popular topic on here a few months back but I think Kon will be a better playmaking version of Gary Trent. They are very similar in size and even athleticism but Kon cleary has him in that area to me.

As I pulled that list of 9 together, that was exactly the Duke comp that came to mind for Kon. A better playmaking Gary Trent Jr. That or a bigger version of Luke Kennard.

Both were below average defenders as freshmen, but they brought a lot on the offensive end.

 

[azzefkram]

I mentioned TJ in my initial post. TJ's problem wasn't just defense. He was also ineffective on offense other than hitting an occasional three. If that's all KK can do, he won't play either. But if KK can do the things that, say, Luke Kennnard could do, his potentially subpar defense won't keep him off the court.

Jabari played 31 mpg despite being a terrible defensive player. That team had seven future NBA players on it, plus Rasheed Sulaimon and freshman Matt Jones, even then a far better defender than Parker. There were many possible lineups that featured Parker somewhat less, which would almost certainly have made us a better defensive team. Parker's offense was more important. Of course KK is not likely to match Parker on offense, but the same principle applies - if the offense talent is good enough, it outweighs subpar defense.

We have no idea what TJ could or could not do offensively based on 181 minutes. Heck, based on his usage number I wouldn't be shocked if he had less than 200 touches.

Jabari was a frontcourt player. You were not replacing him with Matt Jones. As good a defender as Matt became, he would have been destroyed as a freshman guarding frontcourt players. K's frontcourt options were Jabari, Rodney, Amile, Marshall, and Josh. If you squinted, you can maybe add Semi and Alex into the mix. Rodney was already playing 30+ minutes. Amile was self limiting due to fouls. Marshall and Josh were not good defenders and dreadful offensive players. Semi was extremely raw and Alex didn't see the floor after Thanksgiving. There were not many possible lineups.

 

[azzefkram]

Ok, hold on. I wasn't saying Kon is Luka Doncic. Not even close. I was merely responding to this question of yours:

Jon has brought in 3 players who have proven at the D1 level that they can contribute both offensively and defensively. Why would he play a player who is a negative on the defensive end?

Don't you think the Mavs could replace Luka with a better defensive player? If you do, then your question is answered...

Look, I think we can agree that this debate all hinges on things we don't know. Just how good is Kon offensively? How is his defense? How is Sion's game translating at the P4 level?

It's very notable that the buzz coming out of the summer, especially from his teammates, is how good Kon looks. But in the end, it's Jon's opinion that matters.

SkyB my wife says I can no longer argue with you about Duke Basketball since I almost made us late for our dinner reservations.

I asked her if I could argue with her about Duke Basketball and she told me to go have fun with you.

You really did comp Kon with Luka. (Post #583) If you want to moonwalk your way out of it, I'll let it slide out of my unending respect for you and our playful banter.

 

[brevity]

No Ceilings does some preseason scouting of Kon Knueppel for the 2025 draft. Watch this video from about 25:00 to 46:00.

An excerpt from the 31-minute mark:

Corey Tulaba: "He's Midwest strong, so he's able to kind of deal with guys on his shoulder and not get flustered when he has somebody on his hip, or behind him, or whatever, and that's where he'll use those decelerations, and, you know, he can get to a little floater, or he loves pulling up and doing the little postgame fadeaways or whatever... He's just, like, the definition of crafty, is what he is."

Albert Ghim: "Corey, he's clearly watched a little bit of Luka Dončić. Clearly. It's because of everything we just talked about... he's a big kid too, he's not he's not Jalil [Bethea]. We're not worried about his weight, or we might be worried about his weight the other way..."

Corey Tulaba: "He looks good. You've seen those Duke videos. He looks cut up, maybe he's going to get that extra gear."

Albert Ghim: "Hey, maybe you're right, but if you watch some of the high school stuff, there's some doughy footage of him, and it's like, okay, but you're right -- in the Duke footage he looks great... I know we're not doing the deep dive right now, but just in my notes, I had to write New Age Glen Rice, Mike Miller. I need to throw these names out there early..."

 

[jv001]

They may need to raise the scoreboard just a little bit, unless Duke's strategy is to behead the opposing big men. (Won't work against UNC, as they have no big men.)

Anyway, I didn't see this posted before, but The Devils Den spoke with Sion James.

Transfer SF Sion James details what he brings to Duke and projects this year's ceiling

After being extremely productive for Tulane over four seasons, the powerful wing is now ready for a new challenge at Duke before becoming a professional

247sports.com

Thank you for the article. The thing that gets my attention is when Sion says. a lot that could tear us apart. I hope he's not referring to dissention on the team. I hope he's referring to outside noise from the media, but with so much competition for playing time, it could happen. I hope Jon is able to handle it.

GoDuke!

 

[DukieInBrasil]

We have no idea what TJ could or could not do offensively based on 181 minutes. Heck, based on his usage number I wouldn't be shocked if he had less than 200 touches.

Jabari was a frontcourt player. You were not replacing him with Matt Jones. As good a defender as Matt became, he would have been destroyed as a freshman guarding frontcourt players. K's frontcourt options were Jabari, Rodney, Amile, Marshall, and Josh. If you squinted, you can maybe add Semi and Alex into the mix. Rodney was already playing 30+ minutes. Amile was self limiting due to fouls. Marshall and Josh were not good defenders and dreadful offensive players. Semi was extremely raw and Alex didn't see the floor after Thanksgiving. There were not many possible lineups.

We got to see TJ a little bit more than you're letting on. He was a decent 3-pt shooter, but he really struggled with putting the ball on the deck and attacking the paint. I was surprised at how little he ended up playing as i thought he was better than what his overall PT ended up being. Good luck to him at UVA, but just not against Duke ;-)