I could see Caleb outplaying Tyrese, but I just don’t see him as a natural point guard or distributor. He’s pure shooting guard to my eye.
2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season: General Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter cato
- Start date
Yeah. I think Caleb is going to be an excellent player for Duke this season, but he would have to take a huge leap as a defender and as an assist man just to get where Tyrese was last season.
Yeah. Truly elite offensive players are the focal point of the offense. Their impact on the offense is outsized. That impact over the course of a game, or series, or season outweighs the awful defense.
A very good offensive player might be the third option on offense. That is going to limit their ability to impact the offense, but that below average defense is a more constant drain.
I would not be surprised if Kon is a top 6 offensive player for Duke this season. I would also not be surprised if Kon is a bottom 3 defensive player for Duke next season.
SkyBrickey
Member
Azz, did Kon ignore your kids for an autograph or something? Do you think there'd be all this teammate and analyst hype for only a top 6 offensive and bottom 3 defensive player?
I take the teammate hype with a grain of salt. I think the questions have been who impressed you most. It's great that they have said Kon, but could there not be an expectation component in their evaluation? They expected X and Kon's been Y. Many are assuming that Y is awesome and, while it is certainly possible, it is just as likely that Y is good. Pecking order matters. Kon won't be the first option on offense. He won't be the second option at the start of the season.Azz, did Kon ignore your kids for an autograph or something? Do you think there'd be all this teammate and analyst hype for only a top 6 offensive and bottom 3 defensive player?
The defense is much easier to explain. We have seen Tyrese, Maliq, Sion, and Mason be good (elite for T & M) defenders at the D1 level. Cooper's rep places him above Kon. Khaman's size, athleticism, and rep places him above Kon. That leaves Caleb and Pat. Caleb was not a good defender last season, but he has the athleticism to be and will have a season of experience to build on. I know you are not optimistic on Pat as a freshman but I see a player that can a good backup 5 defender.
I expect Kon to be a poor defender as a freshman for reasons previously discussed, but for arguments sake let's say he's just okay. Maybe that places him ahead of Pat and Caleb. Duke's top 6 defensive players are very strong. I don't think an okay defender is surpassing any of them.
SkyBrickey
Member
Yes, your challenge is that you still have Maliq playing the 4 and Pat getting backup minutes at the 5. When you do that and allocate the minutes out, you're pretty much forced to push 2 of the following 4 to the deep bench: James, Gillis, K2, Evans.
You know James and Gillis are playing. So you're trying to use "poor defense" to justify leaving Kon on your bench even though he's the breakout star of the summer. How am I doing?
When you recognize that Maliq is mostly going to play the 5 - with a few minutes at the big wing - then it opens up minutes for Gillis and James and Kon! You need to walk across the bridge. It's sunnier over here.
There's no reason for expectations for Kon coming in to be low. He's ranked ahead of Evans, essentially where McCain was. And everyone says this is a much stronger class. I think you've got him as TJ Power in your head when his impact should be like McCain.
SkyBrickey
Member
Azz, here's my best guess on competitive ACC game minutes. Hasn't really changed over the past 2 months except for flipping Gillis and Kon. Curious to see your latest version of this.
Cooper, Tyrese - 30mpg
Caleb, Maliq, Khaman, Kon, Sion - 25mpg
Mason - 15mpg
I'm least confident on how Kon, Mason and Sion divide up about 65mpg. And maybe Evans is in that mix too - especially late in the year.
Was anything I wrote about the defensive rankings an outlandish take? Was any of it even mildly tepid?Yes, your challenge is that you still have Maliq playing the 4 and Pat getting backup minutes at the 5. When you do that and allocate the minutes out, you're pretty much forced to push 2 of the following 4 to the deep bench: James, Gillis, K2, Evans.
You know James and Gillis are playing. So you're trying to use "poor defense" to justify leaving Kon on your bench even though he's the breakout star of the summer. How am I doing?
When you recognize that Maliq is mostly going to play the 5 - with a few minutes at the big wing - then it opens up minutes for Gillis and James and Kon! You need to walk across the bridge. It's sunnier over here.
There's no reason for expectations for Kon coming in to be low. He's ranked ahead of Evans, essentially where McCain was. And everyone says this is a much stronger class. I think you've got him as TJ Power in your head when his impact should be a lot more like McCain.
I like to deal in knowns when possible. Duke's roster has more knowns on the defensive side of things. We know that Tyrese, Maliq, Sion, and Mason are at least good defenders. Tyrese and Maliq are elite. Cooper was the top ranked recruit largely based on his defense. Yes he does a lot of other stuff extremely well, but defense is the separator. Khaman has elite measurables.
There are a lot more question marks on the offensive side. We know Mason is a very good offensive player albeit in a limited role. Sion may be good if the outside shot is real. Maliq is great around the basket and may have an outside shot. Caleb was really good from distance but had difficulty scoring in the paint. Tyrese was a good distributor and steward of the ball but his shooting is an area for improvement. After that there is a lot of exciting potential but until we see it in meaningful game it's a big whopping question mark.
As for Maliq at the 5, he is a break glass in case of emergency 5 to me. I like my 5s to be north of 25% for d rebounds plus blocks. Maliq was well short of that and Cuse allowed opponents to 53% from 2. I don't want a lot of minutes of that.
You seem to be under the impression that I want Kon to underperform. You couldn't be farther from the truth. I just will not get irrationally excited over summer info. You talk about buying property on Kon Island. Why would I do that? I still trying to get out of my timeshare on Horvath Island. That doesn't even factor in how annoyed I am that I sold my beachfront on Flip Island in July 2022.
kAzE
Member
You’re really going out on a limb there… top 6 offensive player? It’s not like we have Jared McCain and Flip on this team. It would be shocking to me if Kon is not a top 3 offensive player on this roster, and his ceiling is the best offensive player.
I don’t believe that’s hyperbole at all based on his performance against other elite high school players, and what we can infer based on what people close to the program have been saying. He’s obviously the best shooter on the team, which gives him at least a shot of stepping in to the Jared McCain role.
But I think he’s a more versatile offensive player than Jared overall with his feel for the game, his passing, and ability to make plays out of the post with his size.
I’ll throw in a caveat for the doubters, though. I’m not saying he’s going to be the leading scorer and start one day 1. He’s going to have bad games, just like Jared did. All I said was his CEILING is the best offensive player on the roster. But I do think his floor is pretty high, too.
SkyBrickey
Member
Ok, ok. There's a lot more known about Kon here than you are letting on. After he led the EYBL in scoring, he rocketed up the recruiting rankings to come in at #14 in a very strong class - despite question marks about his defense.
So I think the question coming in was really whether his offensive game is excellent or elite. The rave reviews from everywhere this summer seem to be pointing toward elite.
I think there's a lot of scar tissue in Blue Devil world with summer stars like Horvath, Baker and TJ. There's nothing wrong with being a bit skeptical of the Kon hype, but it's wrong to lump him in with that group. He's a different level recruit.
I posted the 9 freshman guard/wing recruits over the past decade at Kon's level and they averaged 29mpg as freshmen with none playing less than 24mpg.
That's the pond Kon is swimming in. Argue he won't get 24mpg because we are so deep at the wing, but don't give him the Summer Nick shade.
It's also interesting that I don't remember any of this summer hype around McCain last year. He and Foster were both top 20 recruits and I remember being unsure who was even starting right up until our first game. Maybe others were more plugged in than me...
SkyBrickey
Member
To answer your specific questions on defense, no I don't think you are off. If Kon is a weak defender, it will limit his time on the court. I'm not sure a freshman Luke Kennard would play a lot of minutes on this team.
But if Kon is an average or slightly below average defender, his strong offensive game will likely earn him starters minutes IMO. The analysts above said Kon looks a lot leaner, more fit, than he did in HS. Let's hope that, plus the 1-2 inches of growth, translate into at least an average ACC wing defender.
If Kon is an average to slightly below average defender, he should get rotation minutes. I agree with the analysts that Kon looks leaner than he did on his HS tape. I would assume that will help with north-south quickness. I don't know if it helps with east-west quickness which struck me as more of an issue for Kon. I would temper defensive expectations for the new, more aerodynamic Kon. I consider Jared and Caleb to be more athletic than Kon and I thought both were poor defenders. Defense often seems to be the biggest hurdle for freshmen.
FosterCoachK82
Member
You know you can just wait until the season starts and see what actually happens. 
sagegrouse
Member
Not stirring the pot too strongly, I hope, but I question whether most opponents have enough offensive threats to be able to exploit 1-2 areas of weakness on Duke's defense. I have had same objections to past assertions that we would be sunk without a big, strong, mobile defensive center, as though most opponents have a 7-footer in the middle who is a serious offensive threat.
Aren't we way, way overdue on some extended scrimmage footage we can go full Zapruder on?You know you can just wait until the season starts and see what actually happens.
DBKilby
Member
This is where I am pretty much at. We are so big and long I think teams will have to shoot over the top of us. I don't think we will be giving up easy straight line drives that lead to easy 2's or wide open 3's. If Cooper is playing a majority at the 3 that should really take our defense to the next level with his size/length. Rebounding should be a strength on both ends.
SkyBrickey
Member
If Kon is 6-7 (as listed) or even 6-6, he doesn't need average lateral quickness to be an average ACC wing defender.
He can give space and still challenge the shot. And at 217 pounds, he's not getting knocked off any driving lanes.
Remember what a rugged defender freshman Justise Winslow was? Offensive guys bounced off him. Kon just needs a little of that Winslow sauce to be able to keep ACC wings out of the lane.
He can give space and still challenge the shot. And at 217 pounds, he's not getting knocked off any driving lanes.
Remember what a rugged defender freshman Justise Winslow was? Offensive guys bounced off him. Kon just needs a little of that Winslow sauce to be able to keep ACC wings out of the lane.
SkyBrickey
Member
Cooper is playing the big wing (previously called the 4 when G Hill and Tatum played it).
Kon and Gillis and Evans will be sharing minutes at the shooting wing (previously called the 3 before Cooper's mom said on Twitter that he's a 3).
We do what we need to do to keep moms happy.
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DBKilby
Member
Kon has like 4 brothers so we need to keep the pipeline open!Cooper is playing the big wing (previously called the 4 when G Hill and Tatum played it).
Kon and Gillis and Evans will be sharing minutes at the shooting wing (previously called the 3 before Kon's mom said on Twitter that he's a 3).
We do what we need to do to keep moms happy.
SkyBrickey
Member
Haha. Yeah, I hear he may not be the best Knueppel. It's Plumlee 2.0.