2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season: General Offseason Discussion

[SkyBrickey]

The only difference in this season is that we had two returning guards and a very talented veteran coming in at guard, so that there is quite a bit more competition at those positions than in previous years.

This is absolutely right and why we won't see either Kim or Isaiah get to the AVERAGE of 29mpg for freshman recruits at their level.

Here's another thought. How much of an advantage is it for Kon and Isaiah vs those other 9 guys to get to spend the summer scrimmaging against Proctor, Foster, James, Gillis and Flagg?

Jon said in an interview that he was doing a lot less individual skill work and a lot more scrimmaging this summer. That should pay dividends.

 

[azzefkram]

I've never seen a hardcore Duke fan so down on a top-15 recruit - especially when by all reports he is exceeding expectations more than any other player this summer!

We will see. The player testimonies and all the historical data are pointing to Kon having a big season. Could Jon prioritize defense and experience and push Kon and Isaiah to the deep bench? Sure it's possible. But it would be unprecedented for Duke basketball.

It is also unprecedented for a Duke coach to have options.

Historical data loses a lot of its impact when the situation changes.

YMMV but I am tired of Duke running non championship caliber defenses. Since Duke leaned into OAD (Kyrie), Duke is far more likely to have a defense outside of the Top 20. That won't win a championship. Duke's current roster is stacked with plus defenders. Jon should lean into that.

If Kon can defend he should get minutes. If he can't, I have no problem with Jon burying him on the bench.

 

[SkyBrickey]

It is also unprecedented for a Duke coach to have options.

Historical data loses a lot of its impact when the situation changes.

YMMV but I am tired of Duke running non championship caliber defenses. Since Duke leaned into OAD (Kyrie), Duke is far more likely to have a defense outside of the Top 20. That won't win a championship. Duke's current roster is stacked with plus defenders. Jon should lean into that.

If Kon can defend he should get minutes. If he can't, I have no problem with Jon burying him on the bench.

Ok fair enough. I respect this view. I still think Gillis could start over Kon exactly for this reason. But I'll be very surprised if Kon doesn't play 20mpg+ and have a big year.

I really pulled together the past 10 years of player data to counter this idea that Goodman or Vecenie hyping Kon is like Goodman hyping TJ Power last season.

But it was surprising to me to see that those 9 guys averaged 29.0 mpg with none playing less than 24mpg.

 

[DukieTiger]

It is also unprecedented for a Duke coach to have options.

Historical data loses a lot of its impact when the situation changes.

YMMV but I am tired of Duke running non championship caliber defenses. Since Duke leaned into OAD (Kyrie), Duke is far more likely to have a defense outside of the Top 20. That won't win a championship. Duke's current roster is stacked with plus defenders. Jon should lean into that.

If Kon can defend he should get minutes. If he can't, I have no problem with Jon burying him on the bench.

Duke has had a top 20 defense literally 50% of the years since (including) the Kyrie year. That wasn’t hard to look up. Not sure how you can at all claim it was more likely that they’d fall outside the top 20.

You mentioned changing situations - well, Scheyer is batting 1.000 in this regard. Top 20 defense both years. If anything, Duke has needed help on offense so far under Scheyer. And Jon has arguably shown a willingness to play guys who were shakier on defense if they’re bringing the offensive pop and surrounded by plus defenders. Thinking Jared McCain last year at times. Jon is going to be looking for scoring pop IMO. Which could be where Kon comes in.

 

[Waynne]

Coach Scheyer says he wants to emphasize defense this year, which makes sense to me because we have some very good defensive players- Proctor, Brown, Flagg, Maluach, and James, among others. A top 20 defense is nice, but it's probably not going to get us the deep run with Flagg we all hope for. I think our D will have to be close to Top 5 if we hope to make the FF.

There's no doubt Kon is an elite shooter- we've seen it with our own eyes. He also is surprisingly strong and powerful, and is probably more athletic than many of us thought. But can he play a passable level of D?- that's the key to how deep into the rotation he gets this year. The truth is, no one outside the program knows, and perhaps even some insiders aren't sure.

Maybe Kon will be a great defensive player this year, although if he's just an average ACC defender that should get him 20 minutes/game. The point is, the jury is still out on his defensive abilities. Until we see him play in a few high level college games, there really is no way we can do anything but speculate about how much he'll play.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Coach Scheyer says he wants to emphasize defense this year, which makes sense to me because we have some very good defensive players- Proctor, Brown, Flagg, Maluach, and James, among others. A top 20 defense is nice, but it's probably not going to get us the deep run with Flagg we all hope for. I think our D will have to be close to Top 5 if we hope to make the FF.

There's no doubt Kon is an elite shooter- we've seen it with our own eyes. He also is surprisingly strong and powerful, and is probably more athletic than many of us thought. But can he play a passable level of D?- that's the key to how deep into the rotation he gets this year. The truth is, no one outside the program knows, and perhaps even some insiders aren't sure.

Maybe Kon will be a great defensive player this year, although if he's just an average ACC defender that should get him 20 minutes/game. The point is, the jury is still out on his defensive abilities. Until we see him play in a few high level college games, there really is no way we can do anything but speculate about how much he'll play.

It's fine to take this position on his defense keeping him on the bench, but you've got to acknowledge it will be unprecedented over the past 10 years if he doesn't play 24mpg+.

That history of similarly-rated players alone doesn't seal the deal for me. But that history plus the rave reviews from his teammates this summer do.

I think it's easy to get enamored with the physically mature James and Gillis, and forget that Kon is a high-level NBA prospect while they are not. Just my opinion. YMMV.

A plug for the latest Brotherhood podcast. Jarred McCain is on campus and notes how tall the team is and how competitive the summer scrimmages are.

 

[dlmzzz]

It's fine to take this position on his defense keeping him on the bench, but you've got to acknowledge it will be unprecedented over the past 10 years if he doesn't play 24mpg+.

That history of similarly-rated players alone doesn't seal the deal for me. But that history plus the rave reviews from his teammates this summer do.

I think it's easy to get enamored with the physically mature James and Gillis, and forget that Kon is a high-level NBA prospect while they are not. Just my opinion. YMMV.

A plug for the latest Brotherhood podcast. Jarred McCain is on campus and notes how tall the team is and how competitive the summer scrimmages are.

Let's take that a step further. If we look at the rave reviews to show us who is playing best on the team right now, it's Flagg (Select Team), and Kon & Brown (raves for being the standout, raves for being the best defender). That sounds like a starting lineup of Proctor, Foster, Kon, Flagg, and Brown. Maybe with a chance that it's Sion over Foster, especially if they are building this to be a defensive juggernaut.

 

[azzefkram]

Duke has had a top 20 defense literally 50% of the years since (including) the Kyrie year. That wasn’t hard to look up. Not sure how you can at all claim it was more likely that they’d fall outside the top 20.

You mentioned changing situations - well, Scheyer is batting 1.000 in this regard. Top 20 defense both years. If anything, Duke has needed help on offense so far under Scheyer. And Jon has arguably shown a willingness to play guys who were shakier on defense if they’re bringing the offensive pop and surrounded by plus defenders. Thinking Jared McCain last year at times. Jon is going to be looking for scoring pop IMO. Which could be where Kon comes in.

In the same timeframe, Duke has had 2 offense out of the top-10. Two. Not half and not outside of the top-20. I am far more confident in Duke putting out a championship caliber offense than a championship caliber defense regardless of the roster.

As for Jon, he has certainly not shown a willingness to play shakier defenders to get offense. If he did, I don't think TJ would be suiting up for UVA next season. Jared was a poor defender last season but he was elite offensively and, this is the important part, Jon didn't have any other options. Who would have played Jared's minutes? Jaylen? Jaden? TJ? Jaylen was a better defender but foul prone and a significantly worse offensive player. Jaden and TJ were worse on both sides of the ball.

If Jon is looking for offensive pop, both Mason and Sion can provide that without a lack of defense.

 

[azzefkram]

It's fine to take this position on his defense keeping him on the bench, but you've got to acknowledge it will be unprecedented over the past 10 years if he doesn't play 24mpg+.

That history of similarly-rated players alone doesn't seal the deal for me. But that history plus the rave reviews from his teammates this summer do.

I think it's easy to get enamored with the physically mature James and Gillis, and forget that Kon is a high-level NBA prospect while they are not. Just my opinion. YMMV.

A plug for the latest Brotherhood podcast. Jarred McCain is on campus and notes how tall the team is and how competitive the summer scrimmages are.

Again,, you need to acknowledge that the situation is different. Prior recruits got 24+ minutes because there were no other options. The only way Jared wasn't going to play 24+ minutes was if he got beaten out by Jaylen and Jaden. Neither player showed that capability heading into last season. You can go back to prior seasons and see the exact same situation. No competition for minutes.

There is competition throughout this roster. That is what is unprecedented.

 

[gillmic]

Let's take that a step further. If we look at the rave reviews to show us who is playing best on the team right now, it's Flagg (Select Team), and Kon & Brown (raves for being the standout, raves for being the best defender). That sounds like a starting lineup of Proctor, Foster, Kon, Flagg, and Brown. Maybe with a chance that it's Sion over Foster, especially if they are building this to be a defensive juggernaut.

I like this potential starting lineup.

Just another potential option:. I could see slotting in Sion for Kon here. This could improve the defense (I know, I know, the jury is still out on Kon’s defense until we know more), and Sion looked like an awfully efficient offensive player last year scoring 14.0 ppg on 51% shooting, including 38% on 3-pointers on decent volume. He’s 6’6”, which is comparable to Kon’s supposed 6’7”, although it would be nice to have their height at the shoulder (which many of us think is more relevant).

That would give us Kon, Gillis, Maluach, and Evans as the probable 6-9 off the bench. We could rotate them in while ensuring that at least one of CFos, Proctor, or Sion are on the floor to run point. (Caveat: I kind of like the idea of hockey subs for this deep and talented team. Too many combinations of players makes it more difficult to know your teammates’ tendencies and to establish some sense of team continuity.)

I haven’t yet made up my mind about who the starting 5 will be, but I’ll let y’all know when the decision is in. Need to get input from Coach JS first.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Let's take that a step further. If we look at the rave reviews to show us who is playing best on the team right now, it's Flagg (Select Team), and Kon & Brown (raves for being the standout, raves for being the best defender). That sounds like a starting lineup of Proctor, Foster, Kon, Flagg, and Brown. Maybe with a chance that it's Sion over Foster, especially if they are building this to be a defensive juggernaut.

I've been saying for a while I thought Brown might start over Maluach, at least early in the year. Brown was All-ACC first team defense and literally one of the most efficient inside scorers in the country last season. He put up what, 21 against us in Cameron last year?

I don't think Caleb Foster is sitting for anyone. He showed us what he could do offensively with his big game against Mich St last year. I think Jon encouraged him to largely defer to Roach and McCain and Flip for scoring last year. I think he will be unleashed this season and have a huge year. He's an NBA guard and should be ready to show it this year. I think James will play 20-25mpg but I'd be shocked if he starts over Caleb.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Again,, you need to acknowledge that the situation is different. Prior recruits got 24+ minutes because there were no other options. The only way Jared wasn't going to play 24+ minutes was if he got beaten out by Jaylen and Jaden. Neither player showed that capability heading into last season. You can go back to prior seasons and see the exact same situation. No competition for minutes.

There is competition throughout this roster. That is what is unprecedented.

We aren't in disagreement here. I'm betting Kon starts at the 3 based on the case I just made, but it could be Gillis or James.

Where we are in disagreement is that you think Cooper, Brown and Maluach are all starting leaving Kon and Isaiah buried on the deep bench. This is not happening. Just want to make sure you aren't moving the goalposts on our pie bet.

 

[budwom]

Can't see Maluach starting early in the year...

 

[jv001]

From the reports I've heard practices are pretty intense. It seems players believe they have a fair shot of making the rotation with their play in off season practices/scrimmages. If K2 is going to have to excel on defense, then so is Foster. He was not a good defender last season. His 2.4 rebounds per game was lower than Jared (5.0) and Jeremy (2.5). Caleb is 5 inches taller than Jeremy and 2 inches taller than Jared. To me rebounding is part of defense and effort plays a big part in it. Caleb did shoot the three well hitting 44% on 28 of 69 shots. However, his Ft shooting was 69%. Does that mean his 3-point average was a fluke or does it mean his FT average was a fluke. I know Sky thinks Caleb is going to have a great season and I hope he does, but I think he'll have to earn the minutes just like K2 and Evans. The same goes for Maluach. Brown may start at the 5 at the beginning of the season.

GoDuke!

 

[azzefkram]

We aren't in disagreement here. I'm betting Kon starts at the 3 based on the case I just made, but it could be Gillis or James.

Where we are in disagreement is that you think Cooper, Brown and Maluach are all starting leaving Kon and Isaiah buried on the deep bench. This is not happening. Just want to make sure you aren't moving the goalposts on our pie bet.

The only thing that can and frankly should bury Kon on the bench is an inability to defend at the D1 level as a freshman. If he can be okay as a defender, he will play. Unfortunately, being an okay defender is often a big ask for freshmen who don't enter Duke with a defensive reputation.

I would be shocked if Khaman didn't start. He may be self limiting to under 20 minutes per game due to fouls early in the season, but I expect him to start.

No goalpost moving on my part. I expect the starting 3-5 to be Cooper, Maliq, and Khaman.

 

[azzefkram]

From the reports I've heard practices are pretty intense. It seems players believe they have a fair shot of making the rotation with their play in off season practices/scrimmages. If K2 is going to have to excel on defense, then so is Foster. He was not a good defender last season. His 2.4 rebounds per game was lower than Jared (5.0) and Jeremy (2.5). Caleb is 5 inches taller than Jeremy and 2 inches taller than Jared. To me rebounding is part of defense and effort plays a big part in it. Caleb did shoot the three well hitting 44% on 28 of 69 shots. However, his Ft shooting was 69%. Does that mean his 3-point average was a fluke or does it mean his FT average was a fluke. I know Sky thinks Caleb is going to have a great season and I hope he does, but I think he'll have to earn the minutes just like K2 and Evans. The same goes for Maluach. Brown may start at the 5 at the beginning of the season.

GoDuke!

I hear what you are saying wrt Caleb, but a guard's rebounding numbers can be heavily influenced by scheme. He may be asked to leak out to start the offense or go back on D. I remember reading that Jared had to talk Jon into letting him go for rebounds.

I would be surprised if Caleb and Khaman didn't start. I remember Kedsy (I miss that poster) had a minutes scale based on rankings and experience. I think Caleb and Khaman would still have a leg up on the Kedsy scale, though I am not certain.

 

[FastBreak]

I imagine the toughest thing this team will face this year is the locker room dynamics when some really good players that could start on most power conference teams are riding the bench because there simply isn’t enough minutes to go around.

 

[phaedrus]

The idea that subpar defense has kept a lot of skilled freshmen on the bench doesn't quite stand up. We've had many great offensive talents gobble up minutes in spite of their defensive weakness - Jabari Parker, Luke Kennard, Jahlil Okafor, Marvin Bagley, AJ Griffin, Matthew Hurt. Jared McCain was no savant. (Yes, Kon may face more competition this year, so he's no lock to continue the trend - even if he were as good as those guys.)

Can you name a freshman who provided efficient starter-level offense but rode the bench because of their defense? If you're tempted to say Joey Baker or TJ Power, I'd counter that they would have played if they provided more offensive output than the occasional open three.

 

[azzefkram]

The idea that subpar defense has kept a lot of skilled freshmen on the bench doesn't quite stand up. We've had many great offensive talents gobble up minutes in spite of their defensive weakness - Jabari Parker, Luke Kennard, Jahlil Okafor, Marvin Bagley, AJ Griffin, Matthew Hurt. Jared McCain was no savant. (Yes, Kon may face more competition this year, so he's no lock to continue the trend - even if he were as good as those guys.)

Can you name a freshman who provided efficient starter-level offense but rode the bench because of their defense? If you're tempted to say Joey Baker or TJ Power, I'd counter that they would have played if they provided more offensive output than the occasional open three.

Every one of those players you mentioned had minimal to zero competition for minutes. K and Jon (in Jared's case) had no choice but to play those players major minutes. Parker, Kennard, Griffin, and Hurt played on the five worst Duke defensive teams of the OAD era. Jabari, Jah and Bagley were also the first option on offense as freshmen. Cooper will be the first option next season. Chances are option two will be one of Tyrese and Caleb. At best Kon is looking at being the third option on offense, possibly even fourth.

Jon has brought in 3 players who have proven at the D1 level that they can contribute both offensively and defensively. Why would he play a player who is a negative on the defensive end?

 

[DBKilby]

Every one of those players you mentioned had minimal to zero competition for minutes. K and Jon (in Jared's case) had no choice but to play those players major minutes. Parker, Kennard, Griffin, and Hurt played on the five worst Duke defensive teams of the OAD era. Jabari, Jah and Bagley were also the first option on offense as freshmen. Cooper will be the first option next season. Chances are option two will be one of Tyrese and Caleb. At best Kon is looking at being the third option on offense, possibly even fourth.

Jon has brought in 3 players who have proven at the D1 level that they can contribute both offensively and defensively. Why would he play a player who is a negative on the defensive end?

The '20 team with Hurt was 12th defensively on KenPom. Kon is our best shooter and floor spacer. Hard to imagine Jon doesn't play him if he is just an average defender. We did bring in 3 transfers but James is the only one that affects Kon. Kon being the 3rd or 4th option is great. I expect a lot of wide open 3's from him in that role.