MChambers
Member
Yeah kiss of death
2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season: General Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter cato
- Start date
I find it interesting how Goodman gives Dauster so much grief for his shameless hyping of Tyrese last year but Dauster never brings up the TJ Power predictions.
DukieTiger
Member
The difference between Goodman’s takes on Kon and TJ is that one was based on Goodman’s abilities as a scout and one is based on Goodman’s abilities as an insider/reporter.
Meaning, he was high on TJ well before Power arrived at Duke and if anything he softened his optimism a smidge once practice reports and videos started coming out.
On the other hand, he seems to be mainly passing on the news from the Duke camp about Kon being a surprise.
This makes me more optimistic that the Kon hype is real.
Meaning, he was high on TJ well before Power arrived at Duke and if anything he softened his optimism a smidge once practice reports and videos started coming out.
On the other hand, he seems to be mainly passing on the news from the Duke camp about Kon being a surprise.
This makes me more optimistic that the Kon hype is real.
jipops
Member
I continue to not be sold until seeing him play in a few games. I feel like we have gone down this path so many times in years past building expectations for a specific player to rise above expectations only to come crashing down to Earth and to barely be seen again when January rolls around. The buzz around Kon being better than expected is certainly encouraging, but the outlook becomes very different when playing against actual competition. I still feel like this buzz applies to what Kon will provide in his later years and less for what he'll provide in a more immediate term.
SkyBrickey
Member
I'll stick my neck out and say the Kon hype is different than the TJ or Joey Baker or other past preseason hype. Three exhibits.
Multiple players are saying he's the biggest surprise in scrimmages. And he's the #15 recruit, so being the biggest surprise is saying a LOT.
From the limited scrimmage video we have, it's not him knocking down 3s that's impressive. It's his ballhandling and movement and playmaking against good defenders. That's not something you can selectively edit like made shots.
Sam Vecenie, a highly respected draft analyst, has him mocked in at #16, the same pick as McCain but in a stronger draft. He could be very wrong of course but this is a different level of hype than past preseason can't-miss picks.
Here's Vecenie's analysis if you haven't seen it. Note he has Flagg 1, Evans 26 and Maluach 30.
This is my big call in the 2025 class. Knueppel doesn’t necessarily look the part — at around 6-foot-6 and 205 pounds, he’s more wide than he is long — but he is one of my five favorite freshmen entering college basketball next season. What he lacks in what one may refer to as “traditional” athletic tools, he more than makes up for with polish, skill and competitiveness. He led the EYBL in scoring last year, and he’s terrific from all three levels. He knocks down shots from distance with remarkable efficiency for a teenager, and the threat of his shot from the 3 and midrange areas opens up his game as a driver. His footwork is outstanding; once he gets you on his hip out of ball screens, it’s over. Defensively, he competes, using his physical frame to his advantage against bigger opponents, but he’s this high because of his work on the other side of the floor, I think he’s one of the great offensive players in this 2024 recruiting class.
He’s the freshman I believe in most at Duke outside of Flagg.
Multiple players are saying he's the biggest surprise in scrimmages. And he's the #15 recruit, so being the biggest surprise is saying a LOT.
From the limited scrimmage video we have, it's not him knocking down 3s that's impressive. It's his ballhandling and movement and playmaking against good defenders. That's not something you can selectively edit like made shots.
Sam Vecenie, a highly respected draft analyst, has him mocked in at #16, the same pick as McCain but in a stronger draft. He could be very wrong of course but this is a different level of hype than past preseason can't-miss picks.
Here's Vecenie's analysis if you haven't seen it. Note he has Flagg 1, Evans 26 and Maluach 30.
This is my big call in the 2025 class. Knueppel doesn’t necessarily look the part — at around 6-foot-6 and 205 pounds, he’s more wide than he is long — but he is one of my five favorite freshmen entering college basketball next season. What he lacks in what one may refer to as “traditional” athletic tools, he more than makes up for with polish, skill and competitiveness. He led the EYBL in scoring last year, and he’s terrific from all three levels. He knocks down shots from distance with remarkable efficiency for a teenager, and the threat of his shot from the 3 and midrange areas opens up his game as a driver. His footwork is outstanding; once he gets you on his hip out of ball screens, it’s over. Defensively, he competes, using his physical frame to his advantage against bigger opponents, but he’s this high because of his work on the other side of the floor, I think he’s one of the great offensive players in this 2024 recruiting class.
He’s the freshman I believe in most at Duke outside of Flagg.
bluedevilwildcats
Member
Yeah, I'm firmly in the "waiting to be convinced / seeing is believing" camp when it comes to Kon, especially on defense.
Based on some of the recent pictures in this thread, he appears to have slimmed down, to the extent that might help his quickness.
Based on some of the recent pictures in this thread, he appears to have slimmed down, to the extent that might help his quickness.
SkyBrickey
Member
Perhaps the pendulum has swung from irrational exuberance to irrational skepticism? 
Who was our last top-15 guard/wing to not play starter's minutes and contribute? We've got two of them this year in Evans and Knueppel. And one is getting rave reviews from teammates and analysts.
Who was our last top-15 guard/wing to not play starter's minutes and contribute? We've got two of them this year in Evans and Knueppel. And one is getting rave reviews from teammates and analysts.
SkyBrickey
Member
Not freshmen top-15 guards/wings.
bluedevilwildcats
Member
I think everyone who is joining you on Kon Island before the season starts has done so.Perhaps the pendulum has swung from irrational exuberance to irrational skepticism?
Who was our last top-15 guard/wing to not play starter's minutes and contribute? We've got two of them this year in Evans and Knueppel. And one is getting rave reviews from teammates and analysts.
SkyBrickey
Member
Here's our guards/wings from the past 10 years with an RSCI ranking of 10-20 along with their freshman year mpg and ppg.
Knueppel (14)
Evans (16)
McCain (12), 31.6, 14.3
Griffin (18) 24.0, 10.4
Keels (19) 30.2, 11.5
Roach (20) 27.4, 8.7
Tre Jones (13) 34.2, 9.4
Trent Jr (14) 33.9, 14.5
Frank Jackson (14) 24.9, 10.9
Thornton (13) 26.0, 7.1
Winslow (13) 29.1, 12.6
So here's the average for those 9 guys: 15.1 ranking, 29.0 mpg, 11.0ppg.
I pulled this together to make the point that we shouldn't be comparing Kon to TJ or Baker or Horvath. We should be benchmarking both him and Isaiah against these 9 guys.
This is a DEEP Duke team. But supposedly it's also a strong recruiting class. Based on these numbers, if either Kon or Isaiah play less than 24mpg, they will be outliers. Personally, I expect one to play less than 24mpg just based on our depth. But not both!
Get on Kon Island before we raise the bridge!
Knueppel (14)
Evans (16)
McCain (12), 31.6, 14.3
Griffin (18) 24.0, 10.4
Keels (19) 30.2, 11.5
Roach (20) 27.4, 8.7
Tre Jones (13) 34.2, 9.4
Trent Jr (14) 33.9, 14.5
Frank Jackson (14) 24.9, 10.9
Thornton (13) 26.0, 7.1
Winslow (13) 29.1, 12.6
So here's the average for those 9 guys: 15.1 ranking, 29.0 mpg, 11.0ppg.
I pulled this together to make the point that we shouldn't be comparing Kon to TJ or Baker or Horvath. We should be benchmarking both him and Isaiah against these 9 guys.
This is a DEEP Duke team. But supposedly it's also a strong recruiting class. Based on these numbers, if either Kon or Isaiah play less than 24mpg, they will be outliers. Personally, I expect one to play less than 24mpg just based on our depth. But not both!
Get on Kon Island before we raise the bridge!
Phredd3
Member
If anyone ever tries to raise a bridge like that, I will be deeply disappointed. Yeah, I know it was a joke. But I am making the point that it is quite possible to be skeptical of Kon's defense and still be very hopeful about his prospects. We all hope the guy is a superstar. Some of us just aren't quite sure of it, yet.Get on Kon Island before we raise the bridge!
SkyBrickey
Member
No one could raise that bridge to a Duke fan! BTW, I'm not predicting superstar. My over/under for Kon is 25mpg, 11ppg. On this team that could still land him as a mid first round draft pick.
I accidentally left Foster out in my list. He was 17 last year. And here's Kennard clocking in at RSCI 21. Neither really impacts the overall numbers. I will make a pie bet that Kon's defense is better than frosh Kennard!
Kennard (21) 26.7, 11.8
Foster (17) 25.4, 7.7
I think all these numbers also point to why it's reasonable to expect Foster to have a breakout season after playing behind better players as a freshman and suffering the season ending injury.
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Love ya SkyB but some of the stuff you are writing is just wrong. I can't for the life of me get multi quote to work so hopefully my responses will make sense. Kon had 2 drives in that heavily edited scrimmage video. In one he was cut off and the other he made it to the rim. In both his primary defender was Caleb who was the polar opposite of a good defender last season.
Vecenie is good but he is wrong a lot of the time, especially when the mocks are far out. Vecenie had Tyrese as a late first coming into Duke and a lottery pick after a season of tape against D1 competition. His scouting report basically poo-poos Kon's defensive shortcomings. It mentions he will be able to use his body against bigger opponents. I don't doubt this but I will be surprised if he is guarding bigger opponents if he is on the wing.
The top-15 wing stuff is true but it ignores that the situation has fundamentally changed. Prior recruits had zero competition for minutes. It also ignores that Jon has stated he wants to get older. Starting 3 freshmen including 2 17 yos is not getting older.
There have been zero reports on Kon's defense and what I saw based on his HS tape leads me to believe he will be a complete liability on the defensive end. He won't be guarding 5'10" Wisconsin farm boys in the ACC.
I don't doubt Kon's offensive abilities but his ability to defend is very much TBD.
Vecenie is good but he is wrong a lot of the time, especially when the mocks are far out. Vecenie had Tyrese as a late first coming into Duke and a lottery pick after a season of tape against D1 competition. His scouting report basically poo-poos Kon's defensive shortcomings. It mentions he will be able to use his body against bigger opponents. I don't doubt this but I will be surprised if he is guarding bigger opponents if he is on the wing.
The top-15 wing stuff is true but it ignores that the situation has fundamentally changed. Prior recruits had zero competition for minutes. It also ignores that Jon has stated he wants to get older. Starting 3 freshmen including 2 17 yos is not getting older.
There have been zero reports on Kon's defense and what I saw based on his HS tape leads me to believe he will be a complete liability on the defensive end. He won't be guarding 5'10" Wisconsin farm boys in the ACC.
I don't doubt Kon's offensive abilities but his ability to defend is very much TBD.
SkyBrickey
Member
I've never seen a hardcore Duke fan so down on a top-15 recruit - especially when by all reports he is exceeding expectations more than any other player this summer!
We will see. The player testimonies and all the historical data are pointing to Kon having a big season. Could Jon prioritize defense and experience and push Kon and Isaiah to the deep bench? Sure it's possible. But it would be unprecedented for Duke basketball.
SkyBrickey
Member
So you led off and said that "some of the stuff you are posting is just wrong" and then didn't identify anything wrong except that it was Caleb playing defense on Kon and he's not a good defender?? Come on, Azz.
