House P
Member
For what it is worth, Torvik predicts Wake to go 4-5 over the rest of the season. This may or may not be a good prediction*, but it probably explains why his model doesn't give Wake much of a chance of making the tourney.Well, that's kinda the point. I don't view 7-2 from Wake to be particularly unlikely. 6-3 is probably the most likely outcome, IMO, so 7-2 isn't at all a stretch. As I (and everyone) said, they have work to do. Meaning, they probably have to go 7-2. To your point they are underdogs in multiple games, but that means wins inherently should boost them in the rankings.
They're the 3rd team out on Bracket Matrix which amalgamates, what, 80 projected brackets? 4% probability from Torvik feels questionably low.
I just personally think Wake is better than #69 NET. I guess that's what it comes down to. And I can't prove that with numbers, so I'll just shut up and let Wake speak for themselves.
- Chillin
Torvik gives Wake a 16% chance of going 6-3, a 4% chance of going 7-2, and less than a 1% chance of going 8-1.
Torvik gives Pitt a 25% chance of going 6-3, a 10% chance of going 7-2, and a 2% chance of going 8-1
*To be fair, Torvik gives Wake almost an equal chance of going 5-4 as 4-5. So it is probably more accurate to say that his model expects them to win 4.4 of their remaining regular season games. By that same approach, he expects Pitt to win 5.1 of their remaining games.