This Week in the ACC - 2/3-2/9

Well, that's kinda the point. I don't view 7-2 from Wake to be particularly unlikely. 6-3 is probably the most likely outcome, IMO, so 7-2 isn't at all a stretch. As I (and everyone) said, they have work to do. Meaning, they probably have to go 7-2. To your point they are underdogs in multiple games, but that means wins inherently should boost them in the rankings.

They're the 3rd team out on Bracket Matrix which amalgamates, what, 80 projected brackets? 4% probability from Torvik feels questionably low.

I just personally think Wake is better than #69 NET. I guess that's what it comes down to. And I can't prove that with numbers, so I'll just shut up and let Wake speak for themselves.

- Chillin
For what it is worth, Torvik predicts Wake to go 4-5 over the rest of the season. This may or may not be a good prediction*, but it probably explains why his model doesn't give Wake much of a chance of making the tourney.

Torvik gives Wake a 16% chance of going 6-3, a 4% chance of going 7-2, and less than a 1% chance of going 8-1.

Torvik gives Pitt a 25% chance of going 6-3, a 10% chance of going 7-2, and a 2% chance of going 8-1




*To be fair, Torvik gives Wake almost an equal chance of going 5-4 as 4-5. So it is probably more accurate to say that his model expects them to win 4.4 of their remaining regular season games. By that same approach, he expects Pitt to win 5.1 of their remaining games.
 
Yeah, I think Wake has a path. The computers are predicting 4-5. If they can go 7-2 or 8-1, then they likely earn a bid. They've played very well in conference. They just weren't impressive at all in non-conference and that's an anchor that doesn't go away.
 
When someone brought up Forbes possibly being on the hot seat yesterday because of his lack of NCAA tournament appearances, I pushed back and said Wake fans’ frustration was more at the selection criteria than Forbes. This discussion is exactly what I meant. This isn’t the first year they feel like the deck is stacked against them, for reasons many of them don’t understand or agree with. And having attended the Wake-Duke game, I agree that while they aren’t always consistent and play much better at home, they appear to be a much better team to me than many other bubble teams.
 
After Duke, Clemson and Ville, I think it's a total crapshoot who gets into the NCAAs from the ACC. Stanford, UNC, Pitt, Wake, SMU (or someone else?) - it's about who can get on a winning streak and who falls on their face. At this point, I have no idea who will come out of this murky pond. They all have their foibles. Hopefully they don't end up like crabs in a bucket, where one gets a bit higher but then the others pull them back down.

9F
 
After Duke, Clemson and Ville, I think it's a total crapshoot who gets into the NCAAs from the ACC. Stanford, UNC, Pitt, Wake, SMU (or someone else?) - it's about who can get on a winning streak and who falls on their face. At this point, I have no idea who will come out of this murky pond. They all have their foibles. Hopefully they don't end up like crabs in a bucket, where one gets a bit higher but then the others pull them back down.

9F
Unless the Cheats are the higher crab then they can get pulled underneath the bucket.
 
After Duke, Clemson and Ville, I think it's a total crapshoot who gets into the NCAAs from the ACC. Stanford, UNC, Pitt, Wake, SMU (or someone else?) - it's about who can get on a winning streak and who falls on their face.
The ACC is setting itself up nicely to dominate the NIT bids!

Hopefully UNC doesn't turn it down this time around.
 
ESPN has a "Bubble Watch" article out, and it was put out this morning. That means that any game from last night and prior was put into consideration.
Knowing that, the whole article is a joke, because they have teams from the ACC in that even Lunardi has out (looking at you, Cheaters), and others as possible that most folks don't have even sniffing the smoke from the selection committee's bonfire.
It's paywalled, but I'm bringing a couple notables out. I'm including their "percentage" chance.

(PS, Duke is obviously the only lock from the conference.)

Should be in​

North Carolina Tar Heels (87%)

UNC easily has the talent to make the tourney, and that factor may help them make it as one of the last power-conference teams in. But they are just 52nd in SOR with a 6-10 record against top-100 opponents, including 2-8 against the top 50. A recent loss at Duke in which they were down 19 on average won't help their optics with the committee. (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:01 p.m.)

Work to do​

Pittsburgh Panthers (68%)

Monday's home loss to Virginia dropped Pittsburgh from 72% odds to 68%. The Panthers' résumé isn't going to blow anyone away -- they rank 55th in SOR and 51st in Wins Above Bubble, with a 6-7 mark against BPI top-100 foes and a sub-.500 record in what has been a diminished ACC this season. But if the conference sends five teams to the tournament, which the ESPN model thinks is likely, that group would probably still include the Panthers. (Updated Feb. 4 at 8:45 a.m.)
Next game: Saturday at North Carolina, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)

SMU Mustangs (58%)

With the ACC's outlook coalescing around the idea of six teams -- maybe seven, if we include Wake Forest -- chasing five NCAA tourney slots, someone is going to be the odd team out. The ESPN model reports that it is basically a toss-up between SMU and Louisville, though it seems clear from a holistic perspective that Louisville has the stronger chance. That means the Mustangs are playing catch-up to make their case with only a few résumé-boosting opportunities left. (Updated Feb. 3 at 3 p.m.)
Next game: Wednesday at Virginia Tech, 9 p.m. (ACC Network)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9%)*

Most forecasts don't like Wake Forest's chances very much, because they don't think the 16-6 team is very good (they rank 75th in KenPom) and it's unclear whether the ACC will even get enough tourney teams to accommodate them. But the Deacs' résumé is far from bad -- they rank 36th in both SOR and Wins Above Bubble -- and they play only the nation's 70th-toughest schedule from here. They've already beaten fellow ACC bubble members UNC and Pitt so far. (Updated Feb. 3 at 3 p.m.)
Next game: Wednesday at Stanford, 11 p.m. (ESPNU)

Everyone else is on "the outside looking in".
The fact that they have Carolina at 87% and "should be in" is laughable.

 
GT threw the game away at the FT line. Ugh
9-19 from the line. Terrible. A Clemson loss would have given us more separation in the ACC.
 
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