Maybe so, but this season we have seen a continued increase in the number of games in which an NBA team shot ZERO two point shots outside the paint. Everything has been in the paint (usually at the rim) or a three. Nothing else. In fact, it is likely that we will soon have a game -- and then more games -- in which BOTH teams avoid taking a single 2 point shot outside the paint.
Strategy Discussions: rotations, play calling, roster management, and more
- Thread starter scottdude8
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Matches
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It makes sense. Taking a lot of long 2s is inefficient, but if you’re not a threat to *ever* take them, you’re effectively shrinking the real estate the defense has to defend - which will make it harder to get to the rim/ get good looks from 3.
Kind of like how bunting isn’t an efficient strategy in baseball, but you might still do it strategically to keep the defense on its toes.
Indoor66
Well-known member
I don't disagree about the best shots description but I would add an additional item to that: the best shot is the one you can make consistently. Taking a 3 and missing is not a better shot than a 2 that you usually make.
SkyBrickey
Member
Cooper is making 25% of his midrange 2s and 22% of his 3s. Statistically, neither is a good shot for the team but one is MUCH better than the other.
I’ll add an additional item to your additional item: a made three pointer is worth 50% more than a two pointer, so a three pointer that is made somewhat less consistently (perhaps 50% less, or at about 2/3 the make rate) is still a better shot than a two pointer.
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After the George Mason game, I have a few thoughts about how to improve our offense.
- It strikes me that we shoot too many 3s. Not sure if we are coached to do this due to a "5 out offense" concept, or simply because we don't have personnel who can beat their man, so we instead resort to 3s. I think we need to find ways to get in the paint to leverage our size advantage, and then work inside out.
- Cooper Flagg should be initiating his offense from the elbow. He is more efficient near the basket. Can back smaller defenders down or turn around for his mid range jump shot. He is closer to the basket to get an offensive rebound. And if doubled, he can make a pass out. He is not a good enough shooter nor able to consistently beat his man to be initiating his offense outside the 3pt line.
- We should be pounding the ball to Maluach. Maybe not as a primary play, but more often than we do. He is highly efficient near the rim. It is also difficult to defend him without fouling him. And he is a surprisingly good free throw shooter.
- More of Foster's and Gillis' minutes should go to Evans. Perhaps Evans should start, if he keeps up this production. Our defense will suffer, but I'm betting it's a net positive trade.
- Given how effective Kon is in the pick-and-roll, especially with Cooper, we should be going to that play several times a game.
- Overall, I do think we need to come up with several go-to-plays - like the Kon/Cooper 2-man game or running screens for Kon/Evans/Proctor. This group is too young, and not good enough at beating their man, and not good enough shooters, to just "let them figure it out."
Some of the main plays I see us run over and over are the short roll to Flagg and the flare screen to Evans. And I agree, we have been having Kon run high ball screens a lot, to great effect.
bluedevilwildcats
Member
Wanted to update a couple of things after last night's game.
Looking at total efficiency by player, we saw some movement. Kon is +2 (his offense is worse but his defense is significantly better) while Caleb is -2 (of the regular rotation, 2nd worst offense and worst defense), and then minor changes. Takeaways for me: Kon is our 3rd-best defender, barely behind Brown. Evans should be getting more of Foster's minutes. Khaman's improvement on offense, can we play more through him.
Looking at lineups with at least 20 offensive possessions, and then sorting by offensive efficiency, the top 3 are below.
Brown and Proctor are in every lineup, while Flagg, Gillis, James and Kon are in two. None of these include Khaman, indicating that he isn't adding synergies like Gillis does. Feels to me the staff needs to customize our offense to get Khaman more involved, as he's our only chance for a low-post presence by year end, but he needs a lot of work, painful as it might be to watch.
Looking at total efficiency by player, we saw some movement. Kon is +2 (his offense is worse but his defense is significantly better) while Caleb is -2 (of the regular rotation, 2nd worst offense and worst defense), and then minor changes. Takeaways for me: Kon is our 3rd-best defender, barely behind Brown. Evans should be getting more of Foster's minutes. Khaman's improvement on offense, can we play more through him.
| Rank | Name | Team Offense | Team Defense | Team Total |
| - | Cooper Flagg | 3.94 | 4.49 | 8.43 |
| +2 | Kon Knueppel | 3.03 | 3.29 | 6.32 |
| -1 | Tyrese Proctor | 3.82 | 2.33 | 6.15 |
| -1 | Mason Gillis | 3.52 | 2.46 | 5.98 |
| +1 | Sion James | 3.1 | 2.55 | 5.65 |
| -1 | Maliq Brown | 1.98 | 3.39 | 5.37 |
| - | Isaiah Evans | 2.97 | 1.67 | 4.64 |
| +1 | Khaman Maluach | 2.45 | 1.6 | 4.05 |
| - | Patrick Ngongba II | 1.34 | 2.31 | 3.65 |
| -2 | Caleb Foster | 2.18 | 1.25 | 3.43 |
Looking at lineups with at least 20 offensive possessions, and then sorting by offensive efficiency, the top 3 are below.
| Lineup | Offense | Defense | Total Eff |
| Brown, Proctor, Flagg, James, Evans | 170 | 62 | 108 |
| Brown, Proctor, Flagg, Gillis, Kon | 162 | 90 | 72 |
| Brown, Proctor, Gillis, James, Kon | 145 | 41 | 104 |
Brown and Proctor are in every lineup, while Flagg, Gillis, James and Kon are in two. None of these include Khaman, indicating that he isn't adding synergies like Gillis does. Feels to me the staff needs to customize our offense to get Khaman more involved, as he's our only chance for a low-post presence by year end, but he needs a lot of work, painful as it might be to watch.
bluedevilwildcats
Member
It's from one of the analytics tools I subscribe to, a more advanced and granular version of KenPom.
The two pairings ahead of Evans/Sion are Kon/Mason and Flagg/Sion.
I'd like to see a stat of Flagg scoring when he's getting the ball 30' from the basket as compared to foul line in. Flagg was very successful against GM yesterday in the 2nd half. At one point he totally dominated the game for approx 4-5 minutes with this strategy. I keep thinking how many times Filipowski turned the ball over when he was too far out.
From my time following sabermetrics years ago, I seem to remember that while sacrifice bunts were historically way overutilized (outs are valuable!), bunting for base hits was something that the analytics said should be done more often, the three true outcomes of homer, strikeout, and walk notwithstanding.
Not sure if that's still the case.
I've been confounded by our use of Khaman for a while now. We just never dump the ball into him like we would a traditional big. It seems clear there's a reason we only roll him to the basket off screens at the top of the arc rather than feeding the post like we've always done before, but I'm hoping we can change that at some point this season.
bluedevilwildcats
Member
Personally I like to combine different sources. Re: Jared last year, Sports Reference has him as the 3rd best in W/S per 40, but just barely ahead of Roach and Mitchell, so very nearly 6th.
One thing I like about Miya is how it separates out implicit and explicit impact. With Jared, Miya indicates that what you see is what you get, which is pretty typical for a frosh. Whether it's super accurate, especially still relatively early in the season, is a good question.
ChillinDuke
Member
I strongly suspect there are some offensive sets and wrinkles that we have not implemented yet. I base that suspicion off of two things: (1) my sense that Scheyer intentionally wants to incrementally unveil schemes as the year progresses in order to peak the team at the right time and (2) what announcers and media coverage have seemed to indicate from Scheyer himself.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some Khaman post ups implemented. Just as teams are starting to figure out our perimeter sets (seemingly haven't yet), throw that in. Even if he's not Jahlil Okafor out there, his sheer size should cause some level of disruptive panic to opposing defenses which could lead to a three or two per game.
- Chillin
SkyBrickey
Member
I'll add a third which is in each of the past two years, Jon noticeably unveiled new sets and actions in January.
But I'm not expecting to see new sets with Khaman or Brown posting for the same reasons you don't see the Mavs run sets with Lively posting. I do think we will see sets with Cooper posting (maybe a sample last night?) and possibly Kon posting.
Maybe we will see a "pick and pop" option with Maluach shooting some threes at the top of the key? He's shooting 80% on his foul shots. If he could hit 35% of those, it would REALLY open up the lane for Cooper and Kon and the guards to attack the rim.
rsvman
Member
He should stop shooting entirely! Those stats are terrible!
SkyBrickey
Member
2-5 from three last night. To my eyes, it looked like he slowed down a beat and may have not been jumping as high on the release.
He shot more of a set-shot at Monteverde (Larry Bird style) where his percentage was higher. He may be tinkering a bit.
Well said.
Getting Maluach at least a few traditional post touches a game may be beneficial. Also surprised that they've haven't called for any pick-n-pop 3s from him since he seemed to hit a decent number of those in the African league this summer.
SkyBrickey
Member
Somebody pointed out to me that Cooper was even better than 2-5 from 3 last night because his toe-on-the-line shot would have made him 3-6.
His shot looked different. Slower. Less elevation on his jump.
Is it possible that Cooper first put in the work on limiting his turnovers (done) and is now focused on upping his shooting efficiency? If it plays out that way, the kid is truly a savant and it has to make you wonder just how high his ceiling could be.
It is only one game. Let's see what happens...
His shot looked different. Slower. Less elevation on his jump.
Is it possible that Cooper first put in the work on limiting his turnovers (done) and is now focused on upping his shooting efficiency? If it plays out that way, the kid is truly a savant and it has to make you wonder just how high his ceiling could be.
It is only one game. Let's see what happens...