Observations from Countdown and practice

On one hand, I should probably avoid this kerfuffle since we probably won't have an idea on rotations and what players can and can not do until January. On the other hand, I do have a honey do list that is begging to be avoided.

If Jon wants sophomore Harris, Evans and Ngongba, he has to play freshman Harris, Evans, and Ngongba. My WAG is that it will have to be around 10 minutes per game. Not every game obviously but get to around 400 minutes played on the season. They less they play, the higher the likelihood of a departure regardless of possible role as a sophomore.

If Jon wants to continue getting quality transfers like Gillis, Brown, and James, he has to play Gillis, Brown and James rotation minutes. If he plays them less, I could see negative recruiting becoming an issue. Duke does a great job combating this when recruiting HSers but I worry it might have a much bigger impact on transfers given the compressed nature of the courtship.

Jon is going to have his hands full this season. He has 11 players that deserve at least some minutes.
 
azzefkram said:
On one hand, I should probably avoid this kerfuffle since we probably won't have an idea on rotations and what players can and can not do until January. On the other hand, I do have a honey do list that is begging to be avoided.

If Jon wants sophomore Harris, Evans and Ngongba, he has to play freshman Harris, Evans, and Ngongba. My WAG is that it will have to be around 10 minutes per game. Not every game obviously but get to around 400 minutes played on the season. They less they play, the higher the likelihood of a departure regardless of possible role as a sophomore.

If Jon wants to continue getting quality transfers like Gillis, Brown, and James, he has to play Gillis, Brown and James rotation minutes. If he plays them less, I could see negative recruiting becoming an issue. Duke does a great job combating this when recruiting HSers but I worry it might have a much bigger impact on transfers given the compressed nature of the courtship.

Jon is going to have his hands full this season. He has 11 players that deserve at least some minutes.
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Good post. Now go attack that honey-do list!
 
budwom said:
Painful to read this stuff. Which is worse, waiting for the season to start or waiting for the election to be over?
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For me, one is filled with optimism and the other with dread (because I expect baaaad things no matter who wins)
 
There is a downside in playing the 9th or 10th man for anything other than mop-up minutes. And it's this...

This is a brand new team. They are learning how to play together. That on-court chemistry takes time to develop. The season comes and goes so quickly. Any minutes that you play the 9th and 10th men are minutes that our starting 5, or top-8, are not learning to play together and hopefully gelling in time soon enough to win a championship.

I do think this will be one of those Duke teams where our 8th man (Gillis) plays regular minutes. And I think there will be some games where we need a heavier dose of minutes from Gillis as a defensive stopper. I just can't see Jon parking Mason on the bench, but I guess it could happen during competitive games if Kon is an absolute star. Jon might not even know at this point...
 
SkyBrickey said:
There is a downside in playing the 9th or 10th man for anything other than mop-up minutes. And it's this...

This is a brand new team. They are learning how to play together. That on-court chemistry takes time to develop. The season comes and goes so quickly. Any minutes that you play the 9th and 10th men are minutes that our starting 5, or top-8, are not learning to play together and hopefully gelling in time soon enough to win a championship.

I do think this will be one of those Duke teams where our 8th man (Gillis) plays regular minutes. And I think there will be some games where we need a heavier dose of minutes from Gillis as a defensive stopper. I just can't see Jon parking Mason on the bench, but I guess it could happen during competitive games if Kon is an absolute star. Jon might not even know at this point...
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That "chemistry downside" is pure conjecture. Personally I'm dubious but there's no way to prove it.

I think there are numerous high-probability downsides to playing 7 guys a large majority of minutes. But especially given the need to appeal to both current players and potential transfers in an era of Free Agency, I think it's highly probably that the best approach to winning and continuity is to play a deeper bench.
 
SkyBrickey said:
There is a downside in playing the 9th or 10th man for anything other than mop-up minutes. And it's this...

This is a brand new team. They are learning how to play together. That on-court chemistry takes time to develop. The season comes and goes so quickly. Any minutes that you play the 9th and 10th men are minutes that our starting 5, or top-8, are not learning to play together and hopefully gelling in time soon enough to win a championship.

I do think this will be one of those Duke teams where our 8th man (Gillis) plays regular minutes. And I think there will be some games where we need a heavier dose of minutes from Gillis as a defensive stopper. I just can't see Jon parking Mason on the bench, but I guess it could happen during competitive games if Kon is an absolute star. Jon might not even know at this point...
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This is certainly true and it makes complete sense for Jon to keep his rotation at 7 or 8. I, for one, would not fault Jon for doing that, but I would also expect (not that I would want it) Pat, Isaiah, and Darren to be playing elsewhere the following season. The seeds of their departure would have been sown this season. We heard scuttlebutt this past season of characters reaching out as early as December.
 
azzefkram said:
This is certainly true and it makes complete sense for Jon to keep his rotation at 7 or 8. I, for one, would not fault Jon for doing that, but I would also expect (not that I would want it) Pat, Isaiah, and Darren to be playing elsewhere the following season. The seeds of their departure would have been sown this season. We heard scuttlebutt this past season of characters reaching out as early as December.
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Logically, I don’t see why Pat would be that upset if he barely plays. Our recent history certainly supports your concern though…
 
AGDukesky said:
Logically, I don’t see why Pat would be that upset if he barely plays. Our recent history certainly supports your concern though…
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If Pat is injured, I agree with you. If he's healthy (a big if), a top 25 big would get rotation minutes on an awful lot of high major programs.

History says Darren shouldn't be that upset if he rarely plays given his ranking.
 
bluedevilwildcats said:
That "chemistry downside" is pure conjecture. Personally I'm dubious but there's no way to prove it.

I think there are numerous high-probability downsides to playing 7 guys a large majority of minutes. But especially given the need to appeal to both current players and potential transfers in an era of Free Agency, I think it's highly probably that the best approach to winning and continuity is to play a deeper bench.
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It's not pure conjecture. Any basketball player or coach will tell you this.

You see it with newly assembled NBA teams all the time. Just look at the Mavs as they brought Doncic and Kyrie together for the latest high-profile example. It takes time to merge strengths and compensate for weaknesses.

The more time Proctor/Foster/Kon/Cooper/Khaman spend on the court together, the more dominant they will become as a unit.
 
azzefkram said:
This is certainly true and it makes complete sense for Jon to keep his rotation at 7 or 8. I, for one, would not fault Jon for doing that, but I would also expect (not that I would want it) Pat, Isaiah, and Darren to be playing elsewhere the following season. The seeds of their departure would have been sown this season. We heard scuttlebutt this past season of characters reaching out as early as December.
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You've got to play to win now. If Ngongba, Harris, Evans are good enough to be in our top-7 as sophomores - and I think all of them will be - then it's very likely they come back.

Would TJ be ahead of Cooper or Kon this season? Nope. Would Sean Stewart be ahead of Maliq or Khaman this season? I don't think so. That's very likely why they aren't in a Duke uniform this year.

Evans is a bit of an unusual case. A top 15 recruit. A very likely NBA first round draft pick. His opportunity right now is to beat out Mason and earn those 8th man minutes. I trust the staff is treating him honestly and fairly.
 
SkyBrickey said:
You've got to play to win now. If Ngongba, Harris, Evans are good enough to be in our top-7 as sophomores - and I think all of them will be - then it's very likely they come back.

Would TJ be ahead of Cooper or Kon this season? Nope. Would Sean Stewart be ahead of Maliq or Khaman this season? I don't think so. That's very likely why they aren't in a Duke uniform this year.
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in the portal era, I'm not sure it's ever fair to say anyone is "very likely" to come back, sadly :(
 
uh_no said:
in the portal era, I'm not sure it's ever fair to say anyone is "very likely" to come back, sadly :(
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Ok, how about just likely? 🙂

I believe Jon REALLY wanted Proctor and Foster back and made it happen. There are levers to pull. And he can pull those same levers with Evans, Harris, Ngongba. We have the luxury of being the most desirable program in the country and the place where these three guys chose to play...
 
SkyBrickey said:
There is a downside in playing the 9th or 10th man for anything other than mop-up minutes. And it's this...

This is a brand new team. They are learning how to play together. That on-court chemistry takes time to develop. The season comes and goes so quickly. Any minutes that you play the 9th and 10th men are minutes that our starting 5, or top-8, are not learning to play together and hopefully gelling in time soon enough to win a championship.

I do think this will be one of those Duke teams where our 8th man (Gillis) plays regular minutes. And I think there will be some games where we need a heavier dose of minutes from Gillis as a defensive stopper. I just can't see Jon parking Mason on the bench, but I guess it could happen during competitive games if Kon is an absolute star. Jon might not even know at this point...
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And there are two downsides to not playing the 9th and 10th men. First, it makes more likely to leave after the season. Second, in the event of the nearly inevitable injury bug striking, they aren’t ready
 
MChambers said:
And there are two downsides to not playing the 9th and 10th men. First, it makes more likely to leave after the season. Second, in the event of the nearly inevitable injury bug striking, they aren’t ready
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Yep, I agree. This is why Jon gets paid the big bucks.

It's also why we could see Evans displacing Gillis for that 8th man role at some point during the season if it's close between them... Evans looked great at CTC.
 
SkyBrickey said:
Curious - does anybody think Caleb or Kon might lead the team in scoring instead of Cooper?
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I certainly think it is possible. Cooper’s shot has looked better but I’m still skeptical of how well he shoots against real college competition. I’m also skeptical that this team is as uptempo as the players have discussed, which is where Cooper could thrive. Might be several players around 12-15 points…
 
SkyBrickey said:
Curious - does anybody think Caleb or Kon might lead the team in scoring instead of Cooper?
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To my mind, that is the likely scenario. I was picturing Cooper in the 14 to 16 points a game range. I think the offense will run through him, but he will see a lot of double teams and I think he will make a decent number of assists. My suspicion is that Caleb will have the Jeremy Roach role — when there is little time on the shot clock, it’ll be in his hands to make a play.
 
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