MBB: Duke vs. Notre Dame (Sat 1/11, 12pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
brevity

brevity

Member
After Tuesday's significant revenge/Quad 1 victory over Pittsburgh, the #4 Blue Devils play the second game of a three-game homestand when they host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday. Tip off is at noon, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN (streaming link, listen, live stats).

The Irish are in Raleigh to take on NC State tonight (Wednesday night). Updated team stats will not be available until Thursday morning, and I'll post a game preview sometime after that. Feel free to discuss your initial impressions of Saturday's matchup here.
 
Notre Dame is KP #91 at 7-7, 1-2. They are essentially out of the NCAAT picture, although the faintest glimmer of hope could be offered to them given a significant injury to Markus Burton, their leading scorer, who missed essentially 8 games in which they went 3-5, including their three most impactful OOC games against #3 Houston (loss by a respectable 11), #49 Creighton (loss by very respectable 4), and #39 Georgia (blown out by 21). Burton returned for their last game, a 1-point loss to UNC, albeit with Trimble out.

If you're the nervous type and are looking for something to be concerned about, you should look no further than ND's record with Burton of 4-2 with a Quad 1 away win against G'Town (NET #71) and a very close loss to UNC. Their only other loss was by 7 points to a somewhat respectable #149 Elon, but it was a home game for ND.

If you're the confident type, given it's a home game for us, there's little to objectively be concerned about in this one. Even if the KP spread of 22 points is subjected to non-Burton bias, this feels like a team that we should push through without a ton of resistance. But let's familiarize ourselves with the roster, shall we?

Notre Dame starts a senior, two juniors, and (likely) two sophomores. Let's respect our elders and start with the senior guard 6'4" Princeton-transfer Matt Allocco who is basically tied as their top minutes getter and is, from what I can tell, their designated 3PT specialist at better than 46% on almost 4 attempts per game. I will refrain from saying 3PT "bomber" (more on that later). He's a career 42% across 4 collegiate seasons, yet only averages 10.0 ppg along with 4 boards and 4 assists in 34 minutes. With a percentage like that, you'd think the coach would get him more shots from deep (more on that later).

Next, we'll move to the juniors - both forwards who have started all 14 games this season - 6'10" Kebba Njie and 6'9" Tae Davis. Njie followed Coach Shrewsberry from Penn State and is this year averaging 6 and 6 in 24 mpg. His season scoring high is 12 against #330 Buffalo; his rebounding high is 10 (once); he has only surpassed 6 rebounds once in the last 9 games; and he has 9 blocks all season (0.6 per game). Seems fair to say he will not be a superlative performer we need to key in on. Tae Davis, on the other hand, is. The Seton Hall transfer is in his second year with the Irish and averages 17/6/2 with a steal in 29 mpg. He is not a shooter at only 26% from deep, but he gets to the line the most on the team with 6.6 FTA per game (making a solid 75%).

Moving on, we get to the sophomores. As discussed at the top, 6'0" Markus Burton sat out 7 games this season, but he was back last game off the bench (for 23 points in 23 minutes) and presumably will start against us. Burton is their leading scorer at 18.9 ppg and 31% 3PT on 4 shots per game. And his ppg is only that low because he played 3 minutes before presumably getting injured in the Rutgers game - removing that puts him at 21.7 ppg (!). He gets to the line 4.1 FTA per game where he converts better than 86%. Don't get all up in his grill when he's shooting from deep, seems to be the logical verdict. He also averages 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.4 steals while being a reasonable protector of the ball with only 1.6 turnovers (again deflated averages given the Rutgers injury). He dropped 29 and 9 against #299 North Dakota, so he can explode.

Circling back on the "bomber" reference above, it's hard to know exactly why Coach Micah Shrewsberry doesn't get 46% shooter Matt Allocco more three attempts. But if I had to guess, it's probably merit based and not at all related to nepotism. ND's fifth starter is 6'4" sophomore guard Braeden Shrewsberry. Braeden averages 16/3/2 on an almost comic >8 3PA per game. His 113 3PA are tied for 44th nationally and third in the ACC after Louisville's Reyne Smith (145) and UNC's RJ Davis (118). For more reference, Duke doesn't have a player over 100 attempts (Knueppel has 92; Proctor has 88; Evans is next with 54). With that absurd volume, he must be a better shooter than Allocco, right? Wrong. Ish. He's a plenty respectable 37%, granted at almost exactly the same percentage as he was last year. He doesn't get to the line much (but does shoot 90+% when he does) and doesn't do a ton else in terms of counting stats. For a team that averages ~66 possessions per game, effectively 1 in 8 end in a Braeden Shrewsberry bomb. Now that's coaching. Or that's coaching's son. Or something. Whatever, you get the bad joke attempt.

Alright, I got the joke across so let's round this thing out quickly so I can click reply. ND has only two bench players that average more than 15 mpg: 6'7" junior wing JR Konieczny and 6'4" senior guard Julian Roper II. Konieczny plays 16 minutes and averages 5 and 3 and shoots 31% from deep. Roper plays 17 minutes and averages 2/2/1 with 1.4 steals per. 6'11" freshman big Garrett Sundra has seen his minutes increase a bit as the year has progressed but not with much statistical impact to speak of as he has 0 pts and 9 rebounds over his last 4 games played (44 minutes, including 18 against UNC). He is 4-9 from three, so there's that. 6'4" sophomore guard Logan Imes saw a minutes burst during the time Burton was sidelined, but he did not play against UNC and has little in the form of counting stats to show for his work - so safe to assume he will be a nonfactor against us. Lastly, Lehigh transfer, 6'8" forward Burke Chebuhar has seen his minutes dwindle as the season has progressed (he didn't play against UNC), but he is shooting better than 56% (!) from deep (but only 16 attempts this season). He was 32% last year, so this is likely flukey.

I'll leave now and let Brev do a better write up. Or at least a better joke.

- Chillin
 
Last edited:
ChillinDuke said:
Notre Dame is KP #91 at 7-7, 1-2. They are essentially out of the NCAAT picture, although the faintest glimmer of hope could be offered to them given a significant injury to Markus Burton, their leading scorer, who missed essentially 8 games in which they went 3-5, including their three most impactful OOC games against #3 Houston (loss by a respectable 11), #49 Creighton (loss by very respectable 4), and #39 Georgia (blown out by 21). Burton returned for their last game, a 1-point loss to UNC, albeit with Trimble out.

- Chillin
Click to expand...
Kalkbrenner did not play for Creighton in that game.
 
SkyBrickey said:
Saw a post that KenPom now gives us a 36% chance of going undefeated in the ACC. That's pretty wild.
Click to expand...
I said a few weeks ago that anything less than 18-2 would be a failure. The ACC looks even worse to me now. I don't see multiple teams that have the fire power to beat us. We are too big and will smother all these teams.
 
Looks like the Triangle will get our first snow in about four years Friday-Saturday. Current forecast on WRAL ‘indicates a bit under 3 inches. Further south there will be more of an ice event. Careful if you’re traveling to the game.
 
ND lost by 1 tonight at NC State. It played out largely as described (by me, earlier).

The starting 5 included Burton.

Davis went for a superlative 14/7/6 on 4-5 from the stripe.

Njie had a surprising double-double.

Allocco had an efficient 11 and 7 on 3-5, 3-4.

While Shrewsberry had 13 and minimal on a green lit 5-12, 3-10 (!).

Burton was the likely swing factor as he only scored 15 on 15 shots. And he had 3 turnovers.

Roper was the only guy in double digit minutes off the bench with 10 minutes and 2/1/1.

ETA: this is starting to feel like a matchup where we can only lose when a coach's son shoots 8-12 or something from deep.

- Chillin
 
ChillinDuke said:
ETA: this is starting to feel like a matchup where we can only lose when a coach's son shoots 8-12 or something from deep.

- Chillin
Click to expand...
He's never met a shot he didn't like. Something was in the air in South Bend last year as I think it was Mark Mitchell(?) hit an unusual number of 3Ps at the same time. Maybe it was the 36 degree heat wave in January.

ND should stay in town given their classes don't start until next week. I'm not sure they know how bad 3" of snow is in RDU, but that same forecast was enough to close school for the first time in 40 years when I went up there in 2020.
 
brevity said:
Updated team stats will not be available until Thursday morning, and I'll post a game preview sometime after that.
Click to expand...

Head coach Micah Shrewsberry is in his second season leading the Irish. Back in August, he took his team on a trip to Spain, and of course I wrote about it here. Despite giving DBR some new college basketball content in the most boring sports month of the year, that whole thread was widely ignored, but here are some highlights from that entry:

  • Notre Dame returned 85.6 percent of its scoring from last season, more than any other ACC team. The next highest were Wake Forest (59.8%) and UNC (56.0%).
  • Duke assistant coach Jai Lucas called the Fighting Irish "sneaky good" in an offseason DBR Podcast.
  • Freshman forward Garrett Sundra was a high school teammate of Patrick Ngongba and Darren Harris, along with Virginia Tech's Ben Hammond and Ngongba's cousin Isaiah Abraham, a freshman at Connecticut.

Like fellow second-year ACC coaches Damon Stoudamire (Georgia Tech) and Adrian Autry (Syracuse), Coach Shrewsberry is overseeing a team in a sophomore slump. The Irish are 7-8 overall, with a road win over Georgetown, a road loss to Georgia in the ACC-SEC Challenge, and an 0-3 outing in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas against Rutgers, Houston, and Creighton. They are 1-3 in conference play, with a home win against Syracuse but road losses to Georgia Tech, UNC, and now NC State (66-65: recap, box score, highlights, full replay).


ChillinDuke said:
I'll leave now and let Brev do a better write up. Or at least a better joke.
Click to expand...

In the second post of this thread, @ChillinDuke did a good job of covering a lot of the key players on this Notre Dame roster, so I don't need to add too much more, other than a lineup breakdown, and of course a few more jokes.

PROBABLE STARTERS

6-0 sophomore guard Markus Burton #3 (18.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 4.0 ast, 1.3 stl)
6-9 junior forward Tae Davis #7 (16.5 pts, 5.6 reb, 2.0 ast)
6-4 sophomore guard Braeden Shrewsberry #11 (15.9 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.7 ast)
6-4 grad guard Matt Allocco #41 (10.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 3.3 ast)
6-10 junior forward Kebba Njie #14 (6.7 pts, 6.1 reb, 0.4 ast)

TOP RESERVES

6-7 redshirt junior guard J.R. Konieczny #20 (4.7 pts, 2.9 reb, 0.7 ast)
6-8 grad forward Burke Chebuhar #21 (3.5 pts, 1.3 reb, 0.5 ast)
6-10 grad forward Nikita Konstantynovskyi #25 (2.8 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.1 ast)
6-4 sophomore guard Logan Imes #2 (2.6 pts, 1.5 reb, 0.8 ast)
6-11 freshman forward Garrett Sundra #12 (2.3 pts, 2.3 reb, 0.4 ast)
6-4 senior guard Julian Roper II #1 (1.9 pts, 2.3 reb, 0.8 ast, 1.3 stl)

BENCH PLAYERS

6-6 freshman guard Sir Mohammed #4 (1.6 pts, 1.4 reb, 0.8 ast)
6-5 freshman guard Cole Certa #5 (0.8 pts, 0.2 reb, 0.2 ast)
6-7 senior forward Thomas Crowe #22 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-2 junior guard Thomas Hattan #15 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-2 junior guard JT Kelly #10 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-4 freshman guard Brady Stevens #0

I know what you're thinking: how did they fit "Konstantynovskyi" on the back of a jersey? I don't actually know; I guess we'll find out. And don't lie down on Cole Certa; he's definitely a deep sleeper just outside that rotation.

There was a period of time in the second half of the Virginia Tech-Duke game when former St. Paul VI teammates Ben Hammond, Patrick Ngongba, and Darren Harris were all on the court together, and announcer Wes Durham actually noticed and pointed it out. His broadcast partner Dan Bonner was incredulous, and he replied: "Ben Vereen, Patrick McGoohan, and Darren McGavin went to the same high school?" Anyway, here's hoping we see Garrett Sundra get a chance to play opposite Ngongba and Harris.

Despite a guard-heavy lineup, the Irish have an even slower adjusted tempo than Duke, and do not have many fastbreak points. See those team stats and many others -- from Sports Reference and other linked sources -- in the comparison tables below. (Bart Torvik is predicting a 79-57 outcome for the home team.)

TABLE 1

CategoryNotre Dame (7-8, 1-3 ACC)Duke (13-2, 5-0 ACC)
Points Scored74.9 (196th nationally)80.0 (76th)
Points Allowed705 (157th)58.4 (5th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.com)4.4 (174th)21.6 (6th)
Bench Points (NCAA.com)15.9 (321st)21.6 (203rd)
Total Rebounds36.1 (194th)39.9 (32nd)
--- Offensive Rebounds9.8 (250th)11.5 (134th)
--- Defensive Rebounds26.3 (111th)28.4 (21st)
Assists12.8 (262nd)16.8 (50th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com)1.19 (162nd)1.63 (20th)
Steals5.1 (333rd)7.4 (152nd)
Blocks1.9 (341st)3.9 (106th)
Turnovers10.7 (60th fewest)10.3 (46th fewest)
Personal Fouls15.1 (45th fewest)15.8 (95th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage46.9% (92nd)47.5% (69th)
2-Point FG Percentage53.8% (129th)57.1% (53rd)
3-Point FG Percentage36.0% (79th)36.8% (63rd)
Free Throw Percentage74.8% (84th)74.9% (80th)

TABLE 2

CategoryNotre Dame (7-8, 1-3 ACC)Duke (13-2, 5-0 ACC)
NET Ranking (NCAA.com)#101#2
--- Strength of Schedule86th13th
--- Quad 11-25-2
--- Quad 20-40-0
--- Quad 31-24-0
--- Quad 45-04-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy)#88#1
--- Offensive Efficiency56th8th
--- Defensive Efficiency147th1st
--- Tempo318th277th
Fastbreak Points (NCAA.com)6.2 (330th)11.5 (131st)
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#54 (T-Page)#3 (T-Page)
--- Experience2.005 (202nd)1.016 (358th)
--- Talent52.372 (45th)81.033 (3rd)

NET quadrants explained:

The quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Click to expand...
Ken Pomeroy defines efficiency as an extrapolated measure of points scored (offensive) or allowed (defensive) per 100 possessions against an average opponent. The more points you score and the fewer points you allow, the better. Tempo refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes against an average tempo: the higher the rank, the faster the tempo. Faster isn't necessarily better; Houston is among the 25 slowest teams, and is KenPom #3.
Click to expand...
Bart Torvik offers some clarification on Experience and Talent in the comments here. Experience "is based on class year (3 for senior, 0 for freshman) with caveat that it actually counts how many years a guy has played 10 games in, so if a guy is listed as a soph even though he's played two full years already, he'll count as a junior." Talent "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played."
Click to expand...
 
I wonder what the rotations will be with Flagg out….

theonion.com

Cooper Flagg Out 2 Weeks Due To Family Trip To Hilton Head

DURHAM, NC—Shrugging as he issued a half-hearted apology for his absence, Duke freshman basketball player Cooper Flagg confirmed Tuesday he would be out for two weeks due to a family trip to Hilton Head Island. “I really want to be there for all my Duke teammates, but this is something we’ve had...
theonion.com theonion.com

(I know it’s satire)
 
wilko said:
I wonder what the rotations will be with Flagg out….

theonion.com

Cooper Flagg Out 2 Weeks Due To Family Trip To Hilton Head

DURHAM, NC—Shrugging as he issued a half-hearted apology for his absence, Duke freshman basketball player Cooper Flagg confirmed Tuesday he would be out for two weeks due to a family trip to Hilton Head Island. “I really want to be there for all my Duke teammates, but this is something we’ve had...
theonion.com theonion.com

(I know it’s satire)
Click to expand...
I can't wait for the response from the non-readers.🤣
 
Indoor66 said:
I can't wait for the response from the non-readers.🤣
Click to expand...
wilko said:
I wonder what the rotations will be with Flagg out….

theonion.com

Cooper Flagg Out 2 Weeks Due To Family Trip To Hilton Head

DURHAM, NC—Shrugging as he issued a half-hearted apology for his absence, Duke freshman basketball player Cooper Flagg confirmed Tuesday he would be out for two weeks due to a family trip to Hilton Head Island. “I really want to be there for all my Duke teammates, but this is something we’ve had...
theonion.com theonion.com

(I know it’s satire)
Click to expand...
As usual with the Onion, the story itself is even better than the headline!
 
wilko said:
I wonder what the rotations will be with Flagg out….

theonion.com

Cooper Flagg Out 2 Weeks Due To Family Trip To Hilton Head

DURHAM, NC—Shrugging as he issued a half-hearted apology for his absence, Duke freshman basketball player Cooper Flagg confirmed Tuesday he would be out for two weeks due to a family trip to Hilton Head Island. “I really want to be there for all my Duke teammates, but this is something we’ve had...
theonion.com theonion.com

(I know it’s satire)
Click to expand...
My heart skipped one beat when I first saw this. Luckily, Cooper is so fast he can go out for 2 weeks and be back inside the hour! ;)
 
brevity said:

TABLE 2

CategoryNotre Dame (7-8, 1-3 ACC)Duke (13-2, 5-0 ACC)
NET Ranking (NCAA.com)#101#2
--- Strength of Schedule86th13th
--- Quad 11-25-2
--- Quad 20-40-0
--- Quad 31-24-0
--- Quad 45-04-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy)#88#1
--- Offensive Efficiency56th8th
--- Defensive Efficiency147th1st
--- Tempo318th277th
Fastbreak Points (NCAA.com)6.2 (330th)11.5 (131st)
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#54 (T-Page)#3 (T-Page)
--- Experience2.005 (202nd)1.016 (358th)
--- Talent52.372 (45th)81.033 (3rd)
Click to expand...

I've checked out Torvik's site, but I couldn't figure out where to see some of the stats you have here. Where are you seeing the experience/talent ranking? I'm curious what 2 teams could possibly have more talent than this Duke team.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top