MBB: Duke vs. Notre Dame (Sat 1/11, 12pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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I wonder what the rotations will be with Flagg out….

I worry most about the game at Wake Forest. Sounds like Cooper will be at the dolphin sunset cruise then.
 
We're in Durham this week to attend the Pitt and Notre Dame games, but I'm growing concerned about the impact of this approaching winter storm. The forecast is for snow and sleet with icing roads from 5pm Friday through 10am Saturday, which could make driving over to Cameron from our hotel for the noon game a dicey -- and icy -- proposition.
 
"And don't lie down on Cole Certa; he's definitely a deep sleeper just outside that rotation."

I caught this....and Brevity didn't think that we would read his entire post about this game...
 
We're in Durham this week to attend the Pitt and Notre Dame games, but I'm growing concerned about the impact of this approaching winter storm. The forecast is for snow and sleet with icing roads from 5pm Friday through 10am Saturday, which could make driving over to Cameron from our hotel for the noon game a dicey -- and icy -- proposition.
You could set up a tent in K-ville to make sure you don't miss the game :)
 
I've checked out Torvik's site, but I couldn't figure out where to see some of the stats you have here. Where are you seeing the experience/talent ranking? I'm curious what 2 teams could possibly have more talent than this Duke team.

The green Bart Torvik link (above in my Table 2, and also provided in this reply) will take you to his Team Tables or Team Charts page, which contains a bunch of weird statistical goodies. Click on AVG HGT to order the teams from tallest to shortest, and you'll see Duke on top, but click on EFF HGT to see Duke at #17 and Elon at #1.

In each game preview, almost as a footnote, I include a link to Torvik's FAQ, where he replies to the comments. I always include his explanation of Experience and Talent, but this is what he says about height:

Q: What is the difference between Effective and Average Height?

A: "Effective Height" is an attempt to calculate minute weighted height of the 4s and 5s. So it's basically the average height of the tallest 40% of minutes.

"Average Height" includes all minutes, not just the bigs.


Torvik lists Connecticut and UNC as having a higher Talent number than Duke. I couldn't tell you what the actual number (81.033 for Duke) means, but it has something to do with recruiting rank, and the number changes slightly because it's weighted by minutes.

I like his Experience number because it resembles slugging percentage in baseball, a vastly underrated stat. Home plate/0 is freshman, first base/1 is sophomore, second base/2 is junior, and third base/3 is senior. The actual number helps you visualize where on the "field" the average player would appear, in terms of their experience. So Duke is at 1.016, or 358th overall; it's like the average Blue Devil took his foot off first base in an attempt to steal second.

Texas A&M is the most experienced of the power conference teams and 5th overall, with a number of 2.731. An average Aggie on that team would appear about three-quarters of the way between second and third base, or about halfway through spring semester of their junior year. Keep in mind that this number is skewed because Henry Coleman III, Wade Taylor IV, and other A&M players are using their 5th year of eligibility. (Jaemyn Brakefield, Matthew Murrell, and Ole Miss are 8th overall, not far behind.)

I'm not married to the tables the way they are, and I welcome suggestions on additions that can be made. I have two rules, though:

1. The stats have to freely available to anyone, without a subscription or even a signup.
2. I have to understand the stat well enough to explain it to a (fellow) layman. Stats are not my strength.


I took a little longer today to post this Notre Dame game preview because I was debating whether or not to add the EvanMiya team rating. Is it helpful here, or just another number? I didn't get much out of it that KenPom's main table or T-Rank doesn't already provide. Still, I thought the individual team pages are interesting, where they show each team's best 2-man, 3-man, 4-man, and 5-man lineups. For example (and I'm leaving out the efficiency and possession numbers for each grouping):

Duke (#1 EvanMiya)

2-man: Sion James/Khaman Maluach
3-man: Cooper Flagg/Sion James/Khaman Maluach
4-man: Cooper Flagg/Sion James/Kon Knueppel/Khaman Maluach
5-man: Cooper Flagg/Sion James/Kon Knueppel/Khaman Maluach/Tyrese Proctor

Notre Dame (#82 EvanMiya)

2-man: Matt Allocco/JR Konieczny
3-man: Matt Allocco/JR Konieczny/Braeden Shrewsberry
4-man: Matt Allocco/Tae Davis/JR Konieczny/Braeden Shrewsberry
5-man: Matt Allocco/Tae Davis/JR Konieczny/Kebba Njie/Braeden Shrewsberry

What does this mean, if Markus Burton does not appear here at all? Is there some minimum usage factor in play, and he's eliminated because he missed 7 games, or is he truly inefficient?
 
I wonder what the rotations will be with Flagg out….


(I know it’s satire)
That was mean
 
It's super interesting that individually Sion and Khaman are ranked 4th and 6th in BPR, but playing together they statistically are our best duo.

My guess is that Sion must be really savvy at knowing how to take advantage of Khaman's presence on both ends of the court. Also, maybe there's some amplifying 1+1=3 effect when you have two defensive disruptors on the court together.
 
If the game is postponed do you think they'll just play Sunday?
It won't be postponed unless ND waits too long to get down here. This is nothing compared to the Ga Tech game in 2021 and we made it there fine from southern Durham County. (Hope I didn't just jinx myself!)
 
It won't be postponed unless ND waits too long to get down here. This is nothing compared to the Ga Tech game in 2021 and we made it there fine from southern Durham County. (Hope I didn't just jinx myself!)
I wouldn't be shocked if ND had stuck around after playing State on Wednesday.
 
I would like to assume Duke’s defensive ranking has created a team pride mindset that generates both a confidence and commitment to continued intensity and execution. If that is a valid assumption, then it seems likely the only possible avenue for an opponent victory is to make 3s at an alarming rate.
 
I would like to assume Duke’s defensive ranking has created a team pride mindset that generates both a confidence and commitment to continued intensity and execution. If that is a valid assumption, then it seems likely the only possible avenue for an opponent victory is to make 3s at an alarming rate.
That and maybe draw a lot of fouls and pound the offensive glass. Our initial halfcourt defense is as good as I’ve ever seen it.
 
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