It’s a good metaphor, though I think it's debatable whether it maps to what has worked in college hoops. (Btw - that doesn't mean I think you're wrong with regards to this year's team. If they're going to run, they may need to go deeper into the bench).
As a somewhat relevant aside, after the discussion in this thread over the past few days, I felt motivated to chart the average % of bench minutes for Top 10 KenPom teams going back to 2007 - the first year he tracked that stat. And I've charted it in comparison to Duke's % and the national average each year. See below if interested.
My main takeaway is that Duke isn't all that different from other elite teams/programs in its usage of the bench, though there is year-to-year variance of course. Note that in all 3 years in which Duke reached the Final Four, were decently below the national and top 10 average. The majority of the hard-core one-and-done era (Okafor, Ingram, Tatum, Bagley) saw Duke the furthest below the pack, which is interesting. But I think there were enough "up" years on here to support the case that K and Scheyer both adapted bench usage to their personnel (which gives me hope for this year).
I think it's also noteworthy that the top 10 average doesn't tend to reach the national average. It implies that there is some wisdom in maxing out one's best players, though of course there are exceptions to that rule.
Last comment, a 30% bench minute usage comes out to 60 mpg. There is a wild amount of variance in how that could look. For example, it could be a 7-deep team with two guys off the bench playing 30 mpg; or it could be a 10 deep team with 5 guys off the bench playing 12 mpg. So I acknowledge this is only part of the picture. I still found it to be a helpful exercise as I've been pondering Duke's usage of the bench this week.
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