Duke 72, Kentucky 77 Post Game Thread

Exactly. And this has been an issue in each of the past two seasons as well. There is so much to love about Scheyer - I am very happy he is the Duke coach - but there is clearly work to be done w/ the offensive scheme.

Not sure that means he needs an "offensive coordinator" but you can argue that's what Hurley has up in Storrs with Bill Murray's son.

The bigger frustration for me has been the inability for Duke to get good shots in late game situations. It happened multiple times last season and then again on Tuesday. Yes, some blame falls on the players but the coaching staff has to do a better job here. 2 possessions within the last 26 seconds and Duke didn't get a single shot off. No big man guarding the in-bound pass either when UK had that OOB under their own hoop. These are not small mistakes.
On the other hand, remember the excellent plays Scheyer set up late in games in 2023, such as the pick and roll against UNC and a similar play against UVa. Same coach and the same top two assistants.
 
I will simplify the explanation.

The defensive efficiency was elite (#1) in the first half. It was still solid) less than 1 point per possession adjusted) in the second half before the last-second fouling. The offensive efficiency was elite (#1) in the first half. It was abysmal (worst in the country adjusted) in the second half.

The defense was 2 baskets different than it was in the first half. The offense was 8 baskets different than it was in the first half.

The offense lost this game, and it isn’t close.
Our offensive efficiency was top tier in the first half even with all the misses? Imagine if Kon was hitting 3s?
 
I will simplify the explanation.

The defensive efficiency was elite (#1) in the first half. It was still solid) less than 1 point per possession adjusted) in the second half before the last-second fouling. The offensive efficiency was elite (#1) in the first half. It was abysmal (worst in the country adjusted) in the second half.

The defense was 2 baskets different than it was in the first half. The offense was 8 baskets different than it was in the first half.

The offense lost this game, and it isn’t close.
Yes, I'm not worried about our defense. Any drop off in those last 10 minutes is probably as simple as us being down 2 good defenders. And I don't think either Evans or Harris would have helped us on that end.

The offensive collapse in the last 10 minutes is a concern. Tired legs? Loss of Man Man for easy buckets at the rim? The very experienced UK team being mentally tougher? Jon calling iso ball offense? A team deferring to iso ball offense because of youth, being tired? Cooper's competitive spirit leading him to hunt shots instead of making the right pass?

My bet is that our offensive woes were due to a bit of all these. And the optimist in me says Jon and staff will use the tape and coach up the team to make sure we finish games a lot stronger on the offensive end moving forward.

I would bet too that we still see the ball in Coop's hands late but it more often will lead to an open Kon jumper, a secondary drive by Tyrese, etc.
 
If there was a man of the match poll I would vote for Maluach. Our defense became porous after his problems and we never fully recovered. It affected both the defense and the offense.
 
I will simplify the explanation.

The defensive efficiency was elite (#1) in the first half. It was still solid) less than 1 point per possession adjusted) in the second half before the last-second fouling. The offensive efficiency was elite (#1) in the first half. It was abysmal (worst in the country adjusted) in the second half.

The defense was 2 baskets different than it was in the first half. The offense was 8 baskets different than it was in the first half.

The offense lost this game, and it isn’t close.
Let's set aside the numbers for a second. I am going to assume you watched the game. What did you think of the final 10 or so minutes of Duke's defense? I saw UK get a lot of clean looks close to the rim and they did not have to work too hard to get them. I did not see that in the prior 25 odd minutes (I don't think Duke opened the game well defensively). That is what I saw. You probably saw things differently. I thought Duke's D was elite during the middle of the game and decidedly less so to open and close the game.

As for what lost the game, I don't think it's that simple. Duke plays better D to start the game and UK goes 3-5 from three instead of 5-5 and we are probably having a different conversation.
 
If there was a man of the match poll I would vote for Maluach. Our defense became porous after his problems and we never fully recovered. It affected both the defense and the offense.
Khaman impressed me the most. The rest of the team generally played how I expected, other than KK's cold shooting. Khaman has some things to work on, but he showed us he is ready to be an ACC-level starter right now and can be as good as our loftiest expectations for him (ACC All-Defense, top 5 draft pick, etc.)
 
Yes, I'm not worried about our defense. Any drop off in those last 10 minutes is probably as simple as us being down 2 good defenders. And I don't think either Evans or Harris would have helped us on that end.

The offensive collapse in the last 10 minutes is a concern. Tired legs? Loss of Man Man for easy buckets at the rim? The very experienced UK team being mentally tougher? Jon calling iso ball offense? A team deferring to iso ball offense because of youth, being tired? Cooper's competitive spirit leading him to hunt shots instead of making the right pass?

My bet is that our offensive woes were due to a bit of all these. And the optimist in me says Jon and staff will use the tape and coach up the team to make sure we finish games a lot stronger on the offensive end moving forward.

I would bet too that we still see the ball in Coop's hands late but it more often will lead to an open Kon jumper, a secondary drive by Tyrese, etc.
The offense was pretty bad the whole second half. I do think we should probably consider the adjustments UK made at the half and probably acknowledge that Jon didn't do a great job adjusting to the adjustments.
 
If there was a man of the match poll I would vote for Maluach. Our defense became porous after his problems and we never fully recovered. It affected both the defense and the offense.
I probably still would have gone with Cooper. Those two TOs came at the worst possible time but his overall game was fantastic.
 
Let's set aside the numbers for a second. I am going to assume you watched the game. What did you think of the final 10 or so minutes of Duke's defense? I saw UK get a lot of clean looks close to the rim and they did not have to work too hard to get them. I did not see that in the prior 25 odd minutes (I don't think Duke opened the game well defensively). That is what I saw. You probably saw things differently. I thought Duke's D was elite during the middle of the game and decidedly less so to open and close the game.

As for what lost the game, I don't think it's that simple. Duke plays better D to start the game and UK goes 3-5 from three instead of 5-5 and we are probably having a different conversation.
Setting the numbers aside, I think the defense in the last 10 minutes was very mediocre, and the offense in the last 20 minutes was off the charts awful.

And sure enough, we gave up 21 points in 10 minutes (4.5 points above 1 point per possession over that time), and scored just 11 (5.5 points below 1 point per possession).

Would the discussion be different if UK missed one more shot? Sure. But regardless of that, the defense played well, and notably better than the offense.

The defense didn’t play uniformly well. They played #1 caliber adjusted defense over the first 30 minutes (53 points allowed in 55.5 possessions) and then mediocre (21 points in 16.5 possessions, adjusted in the 150s). The offense played #1 adjusted offense in the first half, then mediocre offense (15 points in 16.5 possessions) in the first 10 minutes of the second half, then by far the worst offense in the country over the last 10 minutes.

No matter how we look at it, the defense outperformed the offense. Even in the last 10 minutes, but definitely over the 40 minutes. Could the defense have been even better? Sure. But the defense was plenty good enough, while the offense was not.
 
Setting the numbers aside, I think the defense in the last 10 minutes was very mediocre, and the offense in the last 20 minutes was off the charts awful.

And sure enough, we gave up 21 points in 10 minutes (4.5 points above 1 point per possession over that time), and scored just 11 (5.5 points below 1 point per possession).

Would the discussion be different if UK missed one more shot? Sure. But regardless of that, the defense played well, and notably better than the offense.

The defense didn’t play uniformly well. They played #1 caliber adjusted defense over the first 30 minutes (53 points allowed in 55.5 possessions) and then mediocre (21 points in 16.5 possessions, adjusted in the 150s). The offense played #1 adjusted offense in the first half, then mediocre offense (15 points in 16.5 possessions) in the first 10 minutes of the second half, then by far the worst offense in the country over the last 10 minutes.

No matter how we look at it, the defense outperformed the offense. Even in the last 10 minutes, but definitely over the 40 minutes. Could the defense have been even better? Sure. But the defense was plenty good enough, while the offense was not.
The numbers don't lie.

I think it would be interesting to look at the second half through the lens of what adjustments Pope made with his defense to slow us down. They definitely played more physical on D - and the refs let them.

In the first half, I think UK had 10 fouls at the 8 min mark. It was almost like the refs got together and said, we've got to let these guys play a little more or we'll foul out half their team.
 
Setting the numbers aside, I think the defense in the last 10 minutes was very mediocre, and the offense in the last 20 minutes was off the charts awful.

And sure enough, we gave up 21 points in 10 minutes (4.5 points above 1 point per possession over that time), and scored just 11 (5.5 points below 1 point per possession).

Would the discussion be different if UK missed one more shot? Sure. But regardless of that, the defense played well, and notably better than the offense.

The defense didn’t play uniformly well. They played #1 caliber adjusted defense over the first 30 minutes (53 points allowed in 55.5 possessions) and then mediocre (21 points in 16.5 possessions, adjusted in the 150s). The offense played #1 adjusted offense in the first half, then mediocre offense (15 points in 16.5 possessions) in the first 10 minutes of the second half, then by far the worst offense in the country over the last 10 minutes.

No matter how we look at it, the defense outperformed the offense. Even in the last 10 minutes, but definitely over the 40 minutes. Could the defense have been even better? Sure. But the defense was plenty good enough, while the offense was not.
How much of Duke's offensive woes do you attribute to running a poor offense? How much to Duke missing wide open shots? I don't think Duke took a lot of bad shots even in the second half. I think the ball got a bit sticky in the second half but there still were plenty of clean looks.

I think defense carries. Duke visited brick city against UK and for 25 minutes I think Duke's D brought UK along for the ride. If Duke was able to extend UK visit to 30 or 35 minutes I think we would all be happier.
 
The numbers don't lie.

I think it would be interesting to look at the second half through the lens of what adjustments Pope made with his defense to slow us down. They definitely played more physical on D - and the refs let them.

In the first half, I think UK had 10 fouls at the 8 min mark. It was almost like the refs got together and said, we've got to let these guys play a little more or we'll foul out half their team.
Ron Groover enters the chat.
 
How much of Duke's offensive woes do you attribute to running a poor offense? How much to Duke missing wide open shots? I don't think Duke took a lot of bad shots even in the second half. I think the ball got a bit sticky in the second half but there still were plenty of clean looks.

I think defense carries. Duke visited brick city against UK and for 25 minutes I think Duke's D brought UK along for the ride. If Duke was able to extend UK visit to 30 or 35 minutes I think we would all be happier.

I don’t think we ran bad offense overall. I think we executed poorly. But that is a key part of offense. You have to finish the play. And I thought we executed exceptionally poorly over the final 9 minutes. We stopped getting second chance opportunities (1 offensive rebound in the last 9 minutes), which meant those misses hurt more. And we turned it over more (5 turnovers in the last 9 minutes compared with 5 over the first 31 minutes).

It was actually even worse than I had calculated. We actually played 18 possessions in the last 10 minutes (not 16.5). So we scored 11 points in 18 possessions and gave up 21 in 18 possessions. So again, 2 buckets from elite output defensively over the last 10 minutes (even with the offense giving up more live-ball TOs).
 
How much of Duke's offensive woes do you attribute to running a poor offense? How much to Duke missing wide open shots? I don't think Duke took a lot of bad shots even in the second half. I think the ball got a bit sticky in the second half but there still were plenty of clean looks.

I think defense carries. Duke visited brick city against UK and for 25 minutes I think Duke's D brought UK along for the ride. If Duke was able to extend UK visit to 30 or 35 minutes I think we would all be happier.
I know you're a defense-first fan, Azz. But our defense was excellent this game, especially considering we lost two of our top defenders, Khaman and Sion, for key stretches.

We've all heard and seen that Jon focuses more on D than O early in the season vs Coach K. I remember 2 seasons ago with four new starters, our offense was really basic and predictable early in the year and got more sophisticated and better as the season went on.

I think this offense is way ahead of that early offense in the 2022-23 season, but I expect we will see similar improvement as Jon introduces more concepts, sets and fine tunes what is a good shot and what is a great shot for this team. Hated to lose this game, but I don't think it's a reason to worry too much.
 
Here's something I haven't seen discussed much: pace.

Jon occasionally makes comments about wanting to play fast, but the reality is that his teams have played slow. His first two teams averaged 64.9 possessions (298th) and 66.4 possessions (253rd). Duke has played 3 pretty fast games so far, and is averaging 71 possessions (160th). This isn't all that abnormal. For various reasons, pace of play tends to slow as the season goes on. In each of the last two years, I think we've played better in slower games.

Here are our numbers in games with 70 possessions or more

2023 -
Wins - USC Upstate, Delaware, MD-Eastern Shore, Pitt, Wake
Losses - Kansas, Wake, NC State

2024
Wins - La Salle, Queens, Syracuse, Notre Dame, GT,
Losses - Arizona, Arkansas, UNC, UNC, NC State

Remove the cupcake games, and we're 5-8 against high major competition in higher tempo environments. We're 44-10 overall in games slower than 70 possessions.

So, we've played 3 games above 70 possessions so far. Against UK, we seemed to be the more gassed team late. Sure, that may be due to youth and injuries. However, we're a big team with an 8 man rotation. I'm betting that we'll play at a slower pace as the season progresses. And I bet that will be to our advantage.
 
Here's something I haven't seen discussed much: pace.

Jon occasionally makes comments about wanting to play fast, but the reality is that his teams have played slow. His first two teams averaged 64.9 possessions (298th) and 66.4 possessions (253rd). Duke has played 3 pretty fast games so far, and is averaging 71 possessions (160th). This isn't all that abnormal. For various reasons, pace of play tends to slow as the season goes on. In each of the last two years, I think we've played better in slower games.

Here are our numbers in games with 70 possessions or more

2023 -
Wins - USC Upstate, Delaware, MD-Eastern Shore, Pitt, Wake
Losses - Kansas, Wake, NC State

2024
Wins - La Salle, Queens, Syracuse, Notre Dame, GT,
Losses - Arizona, Arkansas, UNC, UNC, NC State

Remove the cupcake games, and we're 5-8 against high major competition in higher tempo environments. We're 44-10 overall in games slower than 70 possessions.

So, we've played 3 games above 70 possessions so far. Against UK, we seemed to be the more gassed team late. Sure, that may be due to youth and injuries. However, we're a big team with an 8 man rotation. I'm betting that we'll play at a slower pace as the season progresses. And I bet that will be to our advantage.
One thing always to keep in mind about the pace of play stats is that our pace of play is significantly lowered by playing the kind of tough defense that forces opponents into shots late in the shot clock.

Even if we are playing fast on offense, teams will have a tough time getting quick quality shots against our defense.
 
How much of Duke's offensive woes do you attribute to running a poor offense? How much to Duke missing wide open shots? I don't think Duke took a lot of bad shots even in the second half. I think the ball got a bit sticky in the second half but there still were plenty of clean looks.

I think defense carries. Duke visited brick city against UK and for 25 minutes I think Duke's D brought UK along for the ride. If Duke was able to extend UK visit to 30 or 35 minutes I think we would all be happier.
These are related issues. Poor ball movement isn't the only cause of poor shooting but it's a contributing factor. Movement creates rhythm and rhythm matters for most shooters. It's harder to make a shot when you've been standing around for multiple possessions and suddenly find yourself wide open with the ball in your hands.
 
Yes, I'm not worried about our defense. Any drop off in those last 10 minutes is probably as simple as us being down 2 good defenders. And I don't think either Evans or Harris would have helped us on that end.

The offensive collapse in the last 10 minutes is a concern. Tired legs? Loss of Man Man for easy buckets at the rim? The very experienced UK team being mentally tougher? Jon calling iso ball offense? A team deferring to iso ball offense because of youth, being tired? Cooper's competitive spirit leading him to hunt shots instead of making the right pass?
I love the fact we are scheduled as tough as we are early in the season so that we can experience exactly what we did against KY now and not just in the NCAA’s. To (hopefully and very likely) learn how to persevere.
 
One thing always to keep in mind about the pace of play stats is that our pace of play is significantly lowered by playing the kind of tough defense that forces opponents into shots late in the shot clock.

Even if we are playing fast on offense, teams will have a tough time getting quick quality shots against our defense.
Good point.

KenPom separately reports each team’s average offensive and definitive possession length.

Through three games, Duke’s average offensive possession is 15.4 seconds (63rd shortest in the country). Duke’s average defensive possession is 17.6 seconds (252nd in the country).

Pope’s decision to roll the ball upcourt to delay the start of the shot clock seems to be an acknowledgement that Duke was making it difficult for UK to get good shots (quickly).
 
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